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An Experimental Study on Optimum Slanting Angle in Reticulated Root Piles Installation (그물식 뿌리말뚝의 최적 타설경사각에 관한 실험 연구)

  • 이승현;김병일
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 1995
  • Load testis are executed on model reticulated root piles (RRP) to figure out the optimum slanting angle in the piles installation. One set of model RRP consists of 8 slanting piles which are installed in circular patterns forming two concentric circles, each of which is made by 4 piles. Each pile which is a steel bar of 5m in diameter and 300mm in length is coated to become a pile of 6.5mm in diameter. The slanting angle of the model RRP varies from 0$^{\circ}$ to 20$^{\circ}$ Comparing ultimate bearing capacities of the model RRP of different installation angles, it is observed that the ultimate capacities of the RRP increase as the installation angle increases until 15$^{\circ}$, and the optimum slanting angle of the RRP is around 15$^{\circ}$ The ultimate bearing capacity of the 15$^{\circ}$-RRP is found to be 22% bigger than that of the vertical RRP and 120% bigger than that of the circular surface footing whose diameter is same with the circle formed by outer root piles'heads. However, it is noticed that when the slanting angle of the RRP is increased over 15$^{\circ}$, the ultimate capacity starts to be reduced. The ultimate capacity of 20$^{\circ}$-RRP is even smaller than that of the vertical RRP by as much as 5%. From the observation of the load settlement curve obtained during the RRP load tests, it is known that as the slanting angle gets bigger the load -settlement behavior becomes more ductile.

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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

A Study on Analysis of Investment Effects of Farm Mechanization, Korea -Mainly on the Case Study of Saemaeul Farm Mechanization Groups in Nonsan Area, Chungnam Province- (농업기계화(農業機械化)의 투자효과분석(投資效果分析)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) -충남논산지역(忠南論山地域) 새마을 기계화영농단(機械化營農團)을 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Lim, Jae Hwan;Han, Gwan Soon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.164-185
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    • 1987
  • The Korean economy has been developed rapidly in the course of implementing the five year economic development plans since 1962. Accordingly the industrial and employment structure have been changed from the traditional agriculture to modem industrial economy. In the course of implementing export oriented industrialization policies, rural farm economy has been encountered labour shortage owing to rural farm population drain to urban areas, rural wage hike and pressure on farm operation costs, and possibility of farm productivity decrease. To cope with the above problems the Korean government has supplied farm machinery such as power tillers, tractors, transplanters, binders, combines, dryers and etc. by means of the favorable credit support and subsidies. The main objectives of this study are to identify the investment effects of farm mechanization such as B/C and Internal Rate of Return by machinery and operation patterns, changes of labour requirement per 10a for rice culture since 1965, partial farm budget of rice with and without mechanization, and estimation labour input with full mechanization. To achieve the objectives Saemaeul farm mechanization groups, common ownership and operation, and farms with private ownership and operation were surveyed mainly in Nonsan granary area, Chungnam province. The results of this study are as follows 1. The national average of labor input per 10a of paddy has decreased from 150.1Hr in 1965 to 87.2Hr in 1985 which showes 42% decrease of labour inputs. On the other hand the hours of labour input in Nonsan area have also decreased from 150.1Hr to 92.8Hr, 38% of that in 1965, during the same periods. 2. The possible labor saving hours per 10a of Paddy was estimated at 60 hours by substituting machine power for labor forces in the works of plowing, puddling, transplanting, harvesting and threshing, transporting and drying The labor savings were derived from 92.8 hours in 1986 deducting 30 hours of labor input with full mechanization in Nonsan area. 3. Social benefits of farm mechanization were estimated at 124,734won/10a including increment of rice (10%): 34,064won,labour saving: 65,800won,savings of conventional farm implements: 18,000 won and savings of animal power: 6,870won. 4. Rental charges by works prevailing in the area were 12,000won for land preparation, 15,000won for transplanting with seedlings, 19,500won for combine works and 6,000won for drying paddy. 5. Farm income per 10a of paddy with and without mechanization were amounted to 247,278won and 224,768won respectively. 6. Social rate of return of the machinery were estimated at more than 50% in all operation patterns. On the other hand internal rate of return of the machinery except tractors were also more than 50% but IRR of tractors by operation patterns were equivalent to 0 to 9%. From the view point of farmers financial status, private owner-operation of tractors is considered uneconomical. Tractor operation by Saemaeul mechanization groups would be economical considering the government subsidy, 40% of tractor price. 7. Farmers recommendations for the government that gained through field operation of farm machinery are to train maintenance technology for rural youth, to standardize the necessary parts of machinery, to implement price tag system, to intercede spare parts and provide marketing information to farmers by rural institutions as RDA,NACF,GUN office and FLIA.

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Toxicological Effects of Some Insecticides against Welsh Onion Beet Armyworm (Spodoptera exigua) (Metaflumizone을 포함한 몇 가지 약제의 파밤나방(Spodoptera exigua)에 대한 독성검정)

  • Kang, E.J.;Kang, M.G.;Seo, M.J.;Park, S.N.;Kim, C.U.;Yu, Y.M.;Youn, Y.N.
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2008
  • The Welsh onion beet armyworm, Spodoptera exigua (Hubner), has attacked Welsh onion and is now the most important pest of Welsh onion in southwestern Korea. The beet armyworm has a wide host range, occurring as a serious pest of vegetable and fields. The relatively high abundance of beet armyworm has stimulated frequent application of insecticides to foliage. Insecticide resistance is a major problem in management of this insect. Accordingly, pesticide application for the control of beet armyworm was tried in both the open field and in laboratory, using 4 synthetic compounds such as metaflumizone and chlorfenapyr, indoxacarb, flufenoxuron, emamectin benzoate. In the laboratory, each developmental stages from eggs, larva to pupa was tested against 4 insecticides. Against the eggs of welsh onion beet armyworm, there was no significantly different with each other. These tested chemicals no killing effect to eggs. However, the population of 1st larva hatched from eggs were reduced because they eaten the egg shell with residual insecticides. The tested insecticides were taken very high mortalities to 1st to 3rd larva of Welsh onion beet armyworm. Otherwise, there were decreased the death rate from 4th to 6th larva. On the other hand, their value of control effects were relatively good against Welsh onion beet armyworms in the field between 87.2 and 90.5% on 10 days after insecticide application.

Evaluation of Dose Reduction of Cardiac Exposure Using Deep-inspiration Breath Hold Technique in Left-sided Breast Radiotherapy (좌측 유방암 방사선 치료에서 깊은 들숨 호흡법을 이용한 심장 선량 감소 평가)

  • Jung, Joo-Young;Kim, Min-Joo;Jung, Jae-Hong;Lee, Seu-Ran;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.278-283
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    • 2013
  • Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in women worldwide and the number of women breast cancer patient was increased continuously. Most of breast cancer patient has suffered from unnecessary radiation exposure to heart, lung. Low radiation dose to the heart could lead to the worsening of preexisting cardiovascular lesions caused by radiation induced pneumonitis. Also, several statistical reports demonstrated that left-sided breast cancer patient showed higher mortality than right-sided breast cancer patient because of heart disease. In radiation therapy, Deep Inspiration Breath Hold (DIBH) technique which the patient takes a deep inspiration and holds during treatment and could move the heart away from the chest wall and lung, has showed to lead to reduction in cardiac volume and to minimize the unnecessary radiation exposure to heart during treatment. In this study, we investigated the displacement of heart using DIBH CT data compared to free-breathing (FB) CT data and radiation exposure to heart. Treatment planning was performed on the computed tomography (CT) datasets of 10 patients who had received lumpectomy treatments. Heart, lung and both breasts were outlined. The prescribed dose was 50 Gy divided into 28 fractions. The dose distributions in all the plans were required to fulfill the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurement specifications that include 100% coverage of the CTV with ${\geq}95%$ of the prescribed dose and that the volume inside the CTV receiving >107% of the prescribed dose should be minimized. Scar boost irradiation was not performed in this study. Displacement of heart was measured by calculating the distance between center of heart and left breast. For the evaluation of radiation dose to heart, minimum, maximum and mean dose to heart were calculated. The present study demonstrates that cardiac dose during left-sided breast radiotherapy can be reduced by applying DIBH breathing control technique.

Nelumbinis Semen Reverses a Decrease in $5-HT_{1A}$Receptor Binding Induced by Chronic Mild Stress, a Depression-like Symptom

  • Jang, Choon-Gon;Kang, Moon-Kyu;Cho, Jae-Han;Lee, Sun-Bok;Kim, Hyun-Taek;Park, Soon-Kwon;Lee, Jin-Woo;Park, Seong-Kyu;Hong, Moo-Chang;Shin, Min-Kyu;Shim, In-Sup;Bae , Hyun-Su
    • Archives of Pharmacal Research
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    • v.27 no.10
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    • pp.1065-1072
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    • 2004
  • Depression is associated with a dysfunctional serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine; 5-HT) system. More recently, several lines of evidence suggest that an important factor in the development of depression may be a deficit in the function and expression of $5-HT_{1A}$ receptors. The present study assessed if Nelumbinis Semen (N. s.) had an anti-depression effect through reversing a decrease in $5-HT_{1A}$receptor binding in rats with depression-like symptoms induced by chronic mild stress. Using a $5-HT_{1A}$ receptor binding assay, with a specific $5-HT_{1A}$receptor agonist, 8- OH-DPAT (8-hydroxy-2-(di-n-propylamino) tetralin), the mechanism of the anti-depression effect of N. s. on rats was investigated, and the effects compared with two well-known antidepressants, Hyperium Perforatum (St. Johns Wort) and fluoxetine (Prozac). Animals were divided into five groups: the normal (N) group without chronic mild stress (CMS), the control (C) group under CMS for 8 weeks, the Nelumbinis Semen (N. s.) treatment group under CMS for 8 weeks, the Hyperium Perforatum (H. p.) treatment group under CMS for 8 weeks and finally, the fluoxetine (F) treatment group under CMS for 8 weeks. Each treatment was administered to rats during the last 4 weeks of the 8-week CMS. A sucrose intake test was performed to test the anti-depression effect of N. s. The N. s. treatment significantly reversed the decreased sucrose intake under CMS (P<0.05 compared to control group under CMS). In the CA2 and CA3 regions of the hippocampus, both N. s. and H. p. reversed the CMS-induced decrease in $5-HT_{1A}$receptor binding. In the I to II regions of the frontal cortex, N. s. and H. p. also reversed the CMS-induced decrease in$5-HT_{1A}$receptor binding, and even showed a significant increase in $5-HT_{1A}$receptor binding compared to the F treatment group (N. s. vs. P, p<0.05, H. p. vs. P, p<0.05). However, in the hypothalamus, all treatments reversed the CMSinduced decrease in $5-HT_{1A}$receptor binding. This reversal effect of N. s. on the decrease in $5-HT_{1A}$receptor binding in the frontal cortex, hippocampus and hypothalamus of rat brains was very similar to that of H. p, but different from that of F. It is concluded that N. s. presents an anti-depression effect through enhancing $5-HT_{1A}$receptor binding.

A Study on the IADL Affecting Subjective Health Index of the Aged in Some Area (일부지역(一部地域) 노인(老人)들의 주체적(主體的) 건강수준(健康水準)에 영향을 미치는 IADL에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Keun-Jo;Park, Heung-Ki;Koon, Hyeok-Su;Bae, Soo-Chan
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Orthopedic Manual Physical Therapy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.29-50
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    • 2001
  • This research have been made to define how the IADL (Instrumental Activity of Daily Living) performance and the subjective health index of the Aged are affected by their residential circumstance, gender and age, and how deeply these two factors are related and interact. For the period of June 1 to July 31, 2000, we had conducted a questionnaire and direct interview with 693 persons over age sixty-five (65) in Daejon and in other adjacent area, grouping into three different residential types The Aged living at home, The Aged living at welfare facilities and The Aged living alone, and studied on how the IADL performance and the subjective health index of the Aged are influenced and interact as per their characteristics, daily activity and mentality. We had analyzed all the data obtained through this research by the method of : - analysis of frequency as per specific factors by SPSS 1O.0/PC+, - $x^2$ test, - t-test, - ANOVA, - multiple regression analysis by factors. The research concludes followings : a. It appears that the three (3) factors such as gender, age and residential circumstance of the Aged deeply affect the IADL performance and subjective health index of the Aged. (p<0.01) b. With regard to IADL performance of the Aged by the gender, it was analyzed that the female-Aged gains 23.8 point on average, which shows the performance of the female-Aged is less independent. (p<0.01). In addition, it was also found that the IADL performance is becoming less and less independent following their age increasing. In analyzing IADL performance by the residential type, it appears that the Aged living at welfare facilities gains the lowest 21.5 points and is least independent. It was also found that the Aged living at welfare facilities need some assistances from others for their performing IADL. (20-24 point) (p<0.001) c. With regard to the subjective health index of the all-Aged participated in this research, the analysis indicates 8.8 point and this is considered as a point of general standard (7-10 point). In analyzing this index by the gender, the female-Aged gains only 8.6 point which explains a lot of female-Aged consider they are not really healthy. (p<0.001) In analyzing this index by the residential type, the Aged living at welfare facilities and the Aged living alone gain the comparatively lower point, - respectively 8.4 point for the Aged living at welfare facilities and 8.8 point for the Aged living alone. The Aged living at these two residential types express they are obviously in a bad situation of health. (p<0.001) d. With regard to the factors affecting the IADL performance and the subjective health index of the Aged, it was analyzed that the IADL performance can largely be affected by the factors such as depression, frequency of going-out and age rising, and that the subject health index can also deeply be affected by depression, pain and by how much they are satisfied with their current living conditions. e. It was analyzed that the interacting between the IADL performance and the subjective health index is not that strong but even weak. As a result, we were able to conclude that the IADL performance is less independent in case of the female-Aged, the Aged living at welfare facilities, and following the age rising. As for the subjective health state the Aged themselves are aware of, we concluded that the female-Aged, the Aged living at welfare facilities and the Aged living alone, are more critical about their health. From this research, we were able to realize that, when the OMT (Orthopedic Manual Therapy) needed, the physical therapists are really required to have a correct and cautious understanding of the situation in which the aged persons are, and take care of them with more concerns and more improved treatment.

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Cross-Sectional Relations of Arterial Stiffness and Inflammatory Markers in Korean Adults Aged 50 Years and Older (지역사회 거주 50세 이상 성인의 동맥경직도와 염증반응인자와의 관련성)

  • Ryu, So-Yeon;Shin, Min-Ho;Lee, Young-Hoon;Rhee, Jung-Ae;Choi, Jin-Su;Park, Kyeong-Soo;Nam, Hae-Sung;Jeong, Seul-Ki;Kweon, Sun-Seog
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2011
  • Objectives: The aim of this study is to determine arterial stiffness levels as measured by brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and to identify the association between arterial stiffness and inflammatory markers, in healthy adults over 50 years old. Methods: The study population consisted of 4617 persons over the age of 50 years who participated in the baseline survey of the Dong-gu Study, which was conducted in 2007 and 2008. Arterial stiffness was measured using baPWV. A multiple regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between conventional cardiovascular risk factors and inflammatory markers, including white blood cell (WBC) counts, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT). Results: After adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors including sex, age, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, hypertension or diabetic medication, total cholesterol, triglycerides, uric acid, and alanine aminotransferase, baPWV was significantly associated with WBC counts (${\beta}$=0.158, p<0.0001), hs-CRP (${\beta}$=0.244, p=0.026), and GGT (${\beta}$=0.003, p<0.0001). Conclusion: This study shows that arterial stiffness correlates with inflammatory markers. Arterial stiffness may be used as a composite risk factor to identify persons with higher risk for cardiovascular disease. Additionally, arterial stiffness may be a marker for future cardiovascular disease and a target for prevention.

An Analysis on Changing Pattern of Economic Active Population by Working Life Table for Korean Men (우리나라 노동생명표에 의한 노동력추이 분석)

  • 조진만
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 1990
  • This is a study which attempt to analyze changing patierns of economic active popu-lation, t o estimato- future patterns, and exa- mine vartons problems arises by changing c ire u mst ances of t he labor force market in- clunging soici al, economic ic, heathl th and demoi-graph ic aspects. We have constructed series of wotking life table which are useful in syt uiolyioig the lirocess of growth and structural change of labor force. Work i ng life tables represent ihie life eyele of econrmic' activity in hi ypothetical cohorts, that is. gen-erat i on of men Sn bject at eat' b period ot f their lives th given ra to's o mor tali it y and of par-- tici pation in economic activities. The tabloes prot' ide measorues of the alvet'age he ng t able of economically aeti \- e life. and agespecific rates of en trannee' into and retirement from the hahn' force. In const routing working life tables, age-specific activity rates and life tabole popula- titoto which represents contemporary condi-tions of moortality in Korea au'e the basic' maltoerials. We have derived the age-specific rates foorm economically active population survey, whoich were conducted by the Bureau of Statistics, Economic Planning Borard of the Korean government. Working life tables are constructed for men wtable these materi- als in the year of 1970, 1980 and 1988 by a modified Wolfbein-Wool's method. Some of the findings may be summerized as follow : 1) A central part of constructing working life table is calculation of stationary' economic active population, which represents the number of men in the stationtary population extoected to be in the labor force at each age group in the life span. The stationary economic active population by age have generally a universal pattern, where they rise sharply in the early twenties, approach its' peak in the thirties decline thereafter. at first graolually and then more rapidly at an advanced age. Korean men show the same general pa ttern of age distribution of stationary eco-- nomic active population with sharp increase hegining from the age interval of 20 to 24, reaching to maximum level at older age. The population. however, presumably, increased substantially due to increaseing school atte endance rates. Another difference exiSts in the youngest age groups, that is the activity rate in the year of 1988 is lower than that of Japan. The table shows an analysis of changes in the age distrihution of labor force between 1970, 1980 and 1988. 2) It was shown an analysis of changes in the age distribution and cause of separation from labor force. The entrance rate to labor force has increased from 18~\5 persons to 299 persons per 1000 head of stationary population between that of 1980 than that of 1988 for Korean men in 20~24 age group. The entrace rate to labor force shows a rapid entrance appearance concentrated on the 15~24 age group. The separation rate from labor force by retirment in Korea in the year of 1988 shows a great difference of the about four times as much as that of Japan. 3) The functions of table illustrate the patterns of working life of males in Korea in 1970, 1980 and 1988. The average remaining number of economically active years, e at age 15 in 1988 is 46.39 which is 2.12 years of increase compared with that of at age 15 in 1970,1980 and 1988 are 43.90,44.27 and 46.39 respectively, showing steadily increase dur- ing the past double decade the increase in the length of economically active life various age may be considered to have come both from extention of general life expectancy and from increasing entrance rate to economic activity in high age that of working is far greater in 1988 than that of 1980. The gaps between expectation of life and average remaining years of economically active widened due to rapid improvement of mortality level in Ko- rea. This observation together with the population pressure by the appearance of a group of younger population implies that constant increase of economically inactive population among older age group.

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On-Line Determination Steady State in Simulation Output (시뮬레이션 출력의 안정상태 온라인 결정에 관한 연구)

  • 이영해;정창식;경규형
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 1996.05a
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    • pp.1-3
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    • 1996
  • 시뮬레이션 기법을 이용한 시스템의 분석에 있어서 실험의 자동화는 현재 많은 연구와 개발이 진행 중인 분야이다. 컴퓨터와 정보통신 시스템에 대한 시뮬레이션의 예를 들어 보면, 수많은 모델을 대한 시뮬레이션을 수행할 경우 자동화된 실험의 제어가 요구되고 있다. 시뮬레이션 수행회수, 수행길이, 데이터 수집방법 등과 관련하여 시뮬레이션 실험방법이 자동화가 되지 않으면, 시뮬레이션 실험에 필요한 시간과 인적 자원이 상당히 커지게 되며 출력데이터에 대한 분석에 있어서도 어려움이 따르게 된다. 시뮬레이션 실험방법을 자동화하면서 효율적인 시뮬레이션 출력분석을 위해서는 시뮬레이션을 수행하는 경우에 항상 발생하는 초기편의 (initial bias)를 제거하는 문제가 선결되어야 한다. 시뮬레이션 출력분석에 사용되는 데이터들이 초기편의를 반영하지 않는 안정상태에서 수집된 것이어야만 실제 시스템에 대한 올바른 해석이 가능하다. 실제로 시뮬레이션 출력분석과 관련하여 가장 중요하면서도 어려운 문제는 시뮬레이션의 출력데이터가 이루는 추계적 과정 (stochastic process)의 안정상태 평균과 이 평균에 대한 신뢰구간(confidence interval: c. i.)을 구하는 것이다. 한 신뢰구간에 포함되어 있는 정보는 의사결정자에게 얼마나 정확하게 평균을 추정할 구 있는지 알려 준다. 그러나, 신뢰구간을 구성하는 일은 하나의 시뮬레이션으로부터 얻어진 출력데이터가 일반적으로 비정체상태(nonstationary)이고 자동상관(autocorrelated)되어 있기 때문에, 전통적인 통계적인 기법을 직접적으로 이용할 수 없다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 시뮬레이션 출력데이터 분석기법이 사용된다.본 논문에서는 초기편의를 제거하기 위해서 필요한 출력데이터의 제거시점을 찾는 새로운 기법으로, 유클리드 거리(Euclidean distance: ED)를 이용한 방법과 현재 패턴 분류(pattern classification) 문제에 널리 사용 중인 역전파 신경망(backpropagation neural networks: BNN) 알고리듬을 이용하는 방법을 제시한다. 이 기법들은 대다수의 기존의 기법과는 달리 시험수행(pilot run)이 필요 없으며, 시뮬레이션의 단일수행(single run) 중에 제거시점을 결정할 수 있다. 제거시점과 관련된 기존 연구는 다음과 같다. 콘웨이방법은 현재의 데이터가 이후 데이터의 최대값이나 최소값이 아니면 이 데이터를 제거시점으로 결정하는데, 알고기듬 구조상 온라인으로 제거시점 결정이 불가능하다. 콘웨이방법이 알고리듬의 성격상 온라인이 불가능한 반면, 수정콘웨이방법 (Modified Conway Rule: MCR)은 현재의 데이터가 이전 데이터와 비교했을 때 최대값이나 최소값이 아닌 경우 현재의 데이터를 제거시점으로 결정하기 때문에 온라인이 가능하다. 평균교차방법(Crossings-of-the-Mean Rule: CMR)은 누적평균을 이용하면서 이 평균을 중심으로 관측치가 위에서 아래로, 또는 아래서 위로 교차하는 회수로 결정한다. 이 기법을 사용하려면 교차회수를 결정해야 하는데, 일반적으로 결정된 교차회수가 시스템에 상관없이 일반적으로 적용가능하지 않다는 문제점이 있다. 누적평균방법(Cumulative-Mean Rule: CMR2)은 여러 번의 시험수행을 통해서 얻어진 출력데이터에 대한 총누적평균(grand cumulative mean)을 그래프로 그린 다음, 안정상태인 점을 육안으로 결정한다. 이 방법은 여러 번의 시뮬레이션을 수행에서 얻어진 데이터들의 평균들에 대한 누적평균을 사용하기 매문에 온라인 제거시점 결정이 불가능하며, 작업자가 그래프를 보고 임의로 결정해야 하는 단점이 있다. Welch방법(Welch's Method: WM)은 브라운 브리지(Brownian bridge) 통계량()을 사용하는데, n이 무한에 가까워질 때, 이 브라운 브리지 분포(Brownian bridge distribution)에 수렴하는 성질을 이용한다. 시뮬레이션 출력데이터를 가지고 배치를 구성한 후 하나의 배치를 표본으로 사용한다. 이 기법은 알고리듬이 복잡하고, 값을 추정해야 하는 단점이 있다. Law-Kelton방법(Law-Kelton's Method: LKM)은 회귀 (regression)이론에 기초하는데, 시뮬레이션이 종료된 후 누적평균데이터에 대해서 회귀직선을 적합(fitting)시킨다. 회귀직선의 기울기가 0이라는 귀무가설이 채택되면 그 시점을 제거시점으로 결정한다. 일단 시뮬레이션이 종료된 다음, 데이터가 모아진 순서의 반대 순서로 데이터를 이용하기 때문에 온라인이 불가능하다. Welch절차(Welch's Procedure: WP)는 5회이상의 시뮬레이션수행을 통해 수집한 데이터의 이동평균을 이용해서 시각적으로 제거시점을 결정해야 하며, 반복제거방법을 사용해야 하기 때문에 온라인 제거시점의 결정이 불가능하다. 또한, 한번에 이동할 데이터의 크기(window size)를 결정해야 한다. 지금까지 알아 본 것처럼, 기존의 방법들은 시뮬레이션의 단일 수행 중의 온라인 제거시점 결정의 관점에서는 미약한 면이 있다. 또한, 현재의 시뮬레이션 상용소프트웨어는 작업자로 하여금 제거시점을 임의로 결정하도록 하기 때문에, 실험중인 시스템에 대해서 정확하고도 정량적으로 제거시점을 결정할 수 없게 되어 있다. 사용자가 임의로 제거시점을 결정하게 되면, 초기편의 문제를 효과적으로 해결하기 어려울 뿐만 아니라, 필요 이상으로 너무 많은 양을 제거하거나 초기편의를 해결하지 못할 만큼 너무 적은 양을 제거할 가능성이 커지게 된다. 또한, 기존의 방법들의 대부분은 제거시점을 찾기 위해서 시험수행이 필요하다. 즉, 안정상태 시점만을 찾기 위한 시뮬레이션 수행이 필요하며, 이렇게 사용된 시뮬레이션은 출력분석에 사용되지 않기 때문에 시간적인 손실이 크게 된다.

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