• Title/Summary/Keyword: Binary logistic regression

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A Study on the Relationship between Social Networks and Retirement Satisfaction of Old Retirees (고령은퇴자의 사회적 관계망과 은퇴만족도 관계 연구)

  • Chung, Soondool;Moon, Jinyoung;Kim, Sungwon
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.1145-1161
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    • 2010
  • The objectives of this study were to examine how social networks of old retirees impact on their retirement satisfaction, and through this, to suggest ways of improving their retirement satisfaction. Data used in this study were from 2006 KLoSA(Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing), which were collected from 1,009 elderly people aged 65 and over who resided metropolis and smaller medium cities and answered regarding their retirement satisfaction. Data were analyzed by Binary Logistic Regression method. As a result, the frequency of contact with children, the number of participation in their social activities, and the satisfaction of relationship with children were the significant variables to predict retirement satisfaction. In addition, other variables such as gender, subjective health status, type of retirement, and duration of past retirement have been found as significant variables to explain retirement satisfaction. Implications for designing effective retirement plan and service systems have been discussed.

A Study on the Sensibility Analysis of School Life and the Will to Farming of Students at Korea National College of Agricultural and Fisheries (한국농수산대학 재학생의 학교생활 감성 분석 및 영농의지에 관한 연구)

  • Joo, J.S.;Lee, S.Y.;Kim, J.S.;Shin, Y.K.;Park, N.B.
    • Journal of Practical Agriculture & Fisheries Research
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2019
  • In this study we examined the preferences of college life factors for students at Korea National College of Agriculture and Fisheries(KNCAF). Analytical techniques of unstructured data used opinion mining and text mining techniques, and the results of text mining were visualized as word cloud. And those results were used for statistical analysis of the students' willingness to farm after graduation. The items of the favorable survey consisted of 10 items in 5 areas including university image, self-capacity, dormitory, education system, and future vision. After classifying the emotions of positive and negative in the collected questionnaire, a dictionary of positive and negative was created to evaluate the preference. The items of 'college image' at the time of university support, 'self after 10 years' after graduation, 'self-capacity' and 'present KNCAF' showed high positive emotion. On the other hand, positive emotion was low in the items of 'college dormitory', 'educational course', 'long-term field practice' and 'future of Korean agriculture'. In the cross-analysis of the difference in the will to farming according to gender, farming base, and entrance motivation, the will to farm according to gender and entrance motivation showed statistically significant results, but it was not significant in farming base. Also in binary logistic regression analysis on the will to farming, the statistically significant variable was found to be 'motivation for admission'

Hospital Avoidance and Associated Factors During the COVID-19 Pandemic (COVID-19 대유행 동안의 병원 회피 현상 및 연관 요인)

  • Jong-Wook Jeon;Se Joo Kim;Su-Young Lee;Jhin Goo Chang;Chan-Hyung Kim
    • Anxiety and mood
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.77-82
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    • 2023
  • Objective : During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, hospital avoidance had a significant impact on public health. We investigated the factors associated with hospital avoidance and explored practical strategies hospitals could employ to address this phenomenon. Methods : We conducted a patient experience survey in a general hospital in Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between July 6, 2020, and July 20, 2020, a total of 842 patients who had previously visited hospitals before the COVID-19 outbreak participated. Self-reported hospital avoidance, factors associated with hospital avoidance, and satisfaction with the hospital's infection control policies were the main outcomes. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify associated factors. Results : Data indicated that 29.9% (n=252) of the respondents avoided visiting the hospital after the COVID-19 outbreak. Satisfaction with the hospital infection control policy (odds ratio [OR]=2.297, p<0.001), female sex (OR=1.619, p<0.05), and higher educational level (OR=1.884, p<0.001) were associated with hospital avoidance. The "entrance body temperature check" was the most satisfactory policy among the hospital's infection control policies. Conclusion : To manage hospital avoidance during an infectious disease crisis, targeted policies for at-risk groups and hospital policies to reassure and satisfy patients are needed.

Residential Independence of Youth and Policy Implications (청년의 주거독립에 미치는 영향과 정책적 시사점)

  • Yoonhye Jung;Jinuk Sung
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.39-56
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    • 2024
  • This study addressed housing issues among various social problems of youth. With a focus on residential independence, this study analyzed the factors that lead youth to achieve residential independence. This study drew on nationwide data from the 'Youth Life Survey (2022)' with a sample size of 12,578. Binary logistic regression analysis was employed, with the dependent variable being residential independence. Key factors were as follows. The probability of residential independence was higher for men than women. Residential independence occurred mainly in non-metropolitan areas compared to metropolitan areas. Findings revealed that greater age, income, and assets facilitate achieving residential independence. In addition, public transport and cultural facilities were important for their residential independence, and it was found that the previous experience of residential independence had a positive effect. Policy implications derived from the findings are as follows. It is required to consider the heterogeneity and diversity of youth rather than implementing unitary policies. To ensure continuity and sustainability of self-reliance, long-term support programs are needed rather than temporary support. Moreover, it is required to offer public support comprehensively, instead of youth relying on support from personal networks, including their parents. An inclusive housing policy should be established to support youth for their residential independence in the future.

Development and Validation of 18F-FDG PET/CT-Based Multivariable Clinical Prediction Models for the Identification of Malignancy-Associated Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis

  • Xu Yang;Xia Lu;Jun Liu;Ying Kan;Wei Wang;Shuxin Zhang;Lei Liu;Jixia Li;Jigang Yang
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.466-478
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    • 2022
  • Objective: 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT is often used for detecting malignancy in patients with newly diagnosed hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), with acceptable sensitivity but relatively low specificity. The aim of this study was to improve the diagnostic ability of 18F-FDG PET/CT in identifying malignancy in patients with HLH by combining 18F-FDG PET/CT and clinical parameters. Materials and Methods: Ninety-seven patients (age ≥ 14 years) with secondary HLH were retrospectively reviewed and divided into the derivation (n = 71) and validation (n = 26) cohorts according to admission time. In the derivation cohort, 22 patients had malignancy-associated HLH (M-HLH) and 49 patients had non-malignancy-associated HLH (NM-HLH). Data on pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT and laboratory results were collected. The variables were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test or Pearson's chi-square test, and a nomogram for predicting M-HLH was constructed using multivariable binary logistic regression. The predictors were also ranked using decision-tree analysis. The nomogram and decision tree were validated in the validation cohort (10 patients with M-HLH and 16 patients with NM-HLH). Results: The ratio of the maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of the lymph nodes to that of the mediastinum, the ratio of the SUVmax of bone lesions or bone marrow to that of the mediastinum, and age were selected for constructing the model. The nomogram showed good performance in predicting M-HLH in the validation cohort, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.875 (95% confidence interval, 0.686-0.971). At an appropriate cutoff value, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying M-HLH were 90% (9/10) and 68.8% (11/16), respectively. The decision tree integrating the same variables showed 70% (7/10) sensitivity and 93.8% (15/16) specificity for identifying M-HLH. In comparison, visual analysis of 18F-FDG PET/CT images demonstrated 100% (10/10) sensitivity and 12.5% (2/16) specificity. Conclusion: 18F-FDG PET/CT may be a practical technique for identifying M-HLH. The model constructed using 18F-FDG PET/CT features and age was able to detect malignancy with better accuracy than visual analysis of 18F-FDG PET/CT images.

Surgical outcome of extrahepatic portal venous obstruction: Audit from a tertiary referral centre in Eastern India

  • Somak Das;Tuhin Subhra Manadal;Suman Das;Jayanta Biswas;Arunesh Gupta;Sreecheta Mukherjee;Sukanta Ray
    • Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.350-365
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    • 2023
  • Backgrounds/Aims: Extra hepatic portal venous obstruction (EHPVO) is the most common cause of portal hypertension in Indian children. While endoscopy is the primary modality of management, a subset of patients require surgery. This study aims to report the short- and long-term outcomes of EHPVO patients managed surgically. Methods: All the patients with EHPVO who underwent surgery between August 2007 and December 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Postoperative complications were classified after Clavien-Dindo. Binary logistic regression in Wald methodology was used to determine the predictive factors responsible for unfavourable outcome. Results: Total of 202 patients with EHPVO were operated. Mean age of patients was 20.30 ± 9.96 years, and duration of illness, 90.05 ± 75.13 months. Most common indication for surgery was portal biliopathy (n = 59, 29.2%), followed by bleeding (n = 50, 24.8%). Total of 166 patients (82.2%) had shunt procedure. Splenectomy with esophagogastric devascularization was the second most common surgery (n = 20, 9.9%). Nine major postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo > 3) were observed in 8 patients (4.0%), including 1 (0.5%) operative death. After a median follow-up of 56 months (15-156 months), 166 patients (82.2%) had favourable outcome. In multivariate analysis, associated splenic artery aneurysm (p = 0.007), isolated gastric varices (p = 0.004), preoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiography and stenting (p = 0.015), and shunt occlusion (p < 0.001) were independent predictors of unfavourable long-term outcome. Conclusions: Surgery in EHPVO is safe, affords excellent short- and long-term outcome in patients with symptomatic EHPVO, and may be considered for secondary prophylaxis.

Seedling Plug and Cutting Method for Multi-propagation of Ornamental Miscanthus Spp. (조경용 억새의 대량번식을 위한 플러그묘와 삽목번식법)

  • Hwang, Kyung Sik;Joo, Song Tak;Ha, Soo Sung;Kim, Ki Dong;Joo, Young Kyoo
    • Weed & Turfgrass Science
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2018
  • Miscanthus species are known as a genus of eco-friendly and low-maintenance cost ornamental grasses. Plug and cutting methods were tested for multi-propagation of most promising ornamental Miscanthus species in greenhouse and field plot. The plug formation period with three different cell sizes with four cultivars (M. sinensis 'Andersson', 'Strictus', 'Gracillimus', 'Variegatus') were evaluated the seedling development stages with two irrigation types of the over-head and the bottom watering in greenhouse and field plot afterward during 2015-2016 season. In seedling plug test, the size of tray cell affected the plug formation. Bottom irrigation resulted positively on plant height, weight, root and tiller development compared with the over-head irrigation. Plug cell size affected the plant growth in the field after transplanting. All of the 3 Miscanthus species showed higher rates of successful propagation at the lower nodes before inflorescence formation (vegetative growth stage). To analyze the survival factors of M. xgiganteus cutting, the cutting time, node part, and culm diameter were tested as independent variables with the binary logistic model. The survival probability was influenced by node part and culm diameter significantly. The third and fifth node parts showed 0.12 (8X higher failure probability) and 0.02 (50X higher failure probability) times less survival probability. It means the survival probability will be increased by using older and lower part of cuttings during a vegetative growth stage before inflorescences of M. xgiganteus.

Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

A Study on the Effect of Network Centralities on Recommendation Performance (네트워크 중심성 척도가 추천 성능에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2021
  • Collaborative filtering, which is often used in personalization recommendations, is recognized as a very useful technique to find similar customers and recommend products to them based on their purchase history. However, the traditional collaborative filtering technique has raised the question of having difficulty calculating the similarity for new customers or products due to the method of calculating similaritiesbased on direct connections and common features among customers. For this reason, a hybrid technique was designed to use content-based filtering techniques together. On the one hand, efforts have been made to solve these problems by applying the structural characteristics of social networks. This applies a method of indirectly calculating similarities through their similar customers placed between them. This means creating a customer's network based on purchasing data and calculating the similarity between the two based on the features of the network that indirectly connects the two customers within this network. Such similarity can be used as a measure to predict whether the target customer accepts recommendations. The centrality metrics of networks can be utilized for the calculation of these similarities. Different centrality metrics have important implications in that they may have different effects on recommended performance. In this study, furthermore, the effect of these centrality metrics on the performance of recommendation may vary depending on recommender algorithms. In addition, recommendation techniques using network analysis can be expected to contribute to increasing recommendation performance even if they apply not only to new customers or products but also to entire customers or products. By considering a customer's purchase of an item as a link generated between the customer and the item on the network, the prediction of user acceptance of recommendation is solved as a prediction of whether a new link will be created between them. As the classification models fit the purpose of solving the binary problem of whether the link is engaged or not, decision tree, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine (SVM) are selected in the research. The data for performance evaluation used order data collected from an online shopping mall over four years and two months. Among them, the previous three years and eight months constitute social networks composed of and the experiment was conducted by organizing the data collected into the social network. The next four months' records were used to train and evaluate recommender models. Experiments with the centrality metrics applied to each model show that the recommendation acceptance rates of the centrality metrics are different for each algorithm at a meaningful level. In this work, we analyzed only four commonly used centrality metrics: degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality. Eigenvector centrality records the lowest performance in all models except support vector machines. Closeness centrality and betweenness centrality show similar performance across all models. Degree centrality ranking moderate across overall models while betweenness centrality always ranking higher than degree centrality. Finally, closeness centrality is characterized by distinct differences in performance according to the model. It ranks first in logistic regression, artificial neural network, and decision tree withnumerically high performance. However, it only records very low rankings in support vector machine and K-neighborhood with low-performance levels. As the experiment results reveal, in a classification model, network centrality metrics over a subnetwork that connects the two nodes can effectively predict the connectivity between two nodes in a social network. Furthermore, each metric has a different performance depending on the classification model type. This result implies that choosing appropriate metrics for each algorithm can lead to achieving higher recommendation performance. In general, betweenness centrality can guarantee a high level of performance in any model. It would be possible to consider the introduction of proximity centrality to obtain higher performance for certain models.

A Study on Searching for Export Candidate Countries of the Korean Food and Beverage Industry Using Node2vec Graph Embedding and Light GBM Link Prediction (Node2vec 그래프 임베딩과 Light GBM 링크 예측을 활용한 식음료 산업의 수출 후보국가 탐색 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Seong;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Seo, Jinny
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.73-95
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    • 2021
  • This study uses Node2vec graph embedding method and Light GBM link prediction to explore undeveloped export candidate countries in Korea's food and beverage industry. Node2vec is the method that improves the limit of the structural equivalence representation of the network, which is known to be relatively weak compared to the existing link prediction method based on the number of common neighbors of the network. Therefore, the method is known to show excellent performance in both community detection and structural equivalence of the network. The vector value obtained by embedding the network in this way operates under the condition of a constant length from an arbitrarily designated starting point node. Therefore, it has the advantage that it is easy to apply the sequence of nodes as an input value to the model for downstream tasks such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest. Based on these features of the Node2vec graph embedding method, this study applied the above method to the international trade information of the Korean food and beverage industry. Through this, we intend to contribute to creating the effect of extensive margin diversification in Korea in the global value chain relationship of the industry. The optimal predictive model derived from the results of this study recorded a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.79, and an F1 score of 0.86, showing excellent performance. This performance was shown to be superior to that of the binary classifier based on Logistic Regression set as the baseline model. In the baseline model, a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.73 were recorded, and an F1 score of 0.83 was recorded. In addition, the light GBM-based optimal prediction model derived from this study showed superior performance than the link prediction model of previous studies, which is set as a benchmarking model in this study. The predictive model of the previous study recorded only a recall rate of 0.75, but the proposed model of this study showed better performance which recall rate is 0.79. The difference in the performance of the prediction results between benchmarking model and this study model is due to the model learning strategy. In this study, groups were classified by the trade value scale, and prediction models were trained differently for these groups. Specific methods are (1) a method of randomly masking and learning a model for all trades without setting specific conditions for trade value, (2) arbitrarily masking a part of the trades with an average trade value or higher and using the model method, and (3) a method of arbitrarily masking some of the trades with the top 25% or higher trade value and learning the model. As a result of the experiment, it was confirmed that the performance of the model trained by randomly masking some of the trades with the above-average trade value in this method was the best and appeared stably. It was found that most of the results of potential export candidates for Korea derived through the above model appeared appropriate through additional investigation. Combining the above, this study could suggest the practical utility of the link prediction method applying Node2vec and Light GBM. In addition, useful implications could be derived for weight update strategies that can perform better link prediction while training the model. On the other hand, this study also has policy utility because it is applied to trade transactions that have not been performed much in the research related to link prediction based on graph embedding. The results of this study support a rapid response to changes in the global value chain such as the recent US-China trade conflict or Japan's export regulations, and I think that it has sufficient usefulness as a tool for policy decision-making.