• Title/Summary/Keyword: Best-estimate Analysis

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An Improved Composite Estimator for Cut-off Sampling

  • Hwang, Hee-Jin;Shin, Key-Il
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.367-376
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    • 2013
  • Cut-off sampling is widely used for a highly skewed population like a business survey by discarding a part of the population (the take-nothing stratum). In this paper, we suggest a new composite estimator of the take-nothing stratum total obtained by use of the survey results of the take-nothing stratum and a take-some sub-stratum (a part of take-some stratum) for a more accurate estimate of the population total. Small simulation studies are conducted to compare the performances of known estimators and the new composite estimator suggested in this study. In addition, we use briquette consumption survey data for real data analysis.

Land Cover Classification and Analysis using Remotely Sensed Images Landsat TM with SPOT Panchromatic (Landsat TM과 SPOT Panchromatic 인공위성 영상자료를 이용한 토지피복분류 및 분석)

  • 함종화;윤춘경;김성준
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 1999.10c
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    • pp.765-770
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to obtain land classification map by using remotely sensed data; Landsat TM and SPOT panchromatic, and to compare their results with statistical data and digitized coverage from topographic paper map. The classification was conducted by maximum likelihood method with training sets. The best result was obtained from the Landsat TM merged by SPOT Panchromatic, that is, similar with statistical data. This is caused by setting more precise training sets with the enhanced spatial resolution by using SPOT Panchromatic. The classified map may be useful as a fundamental data to estimate pollutant load in regional scale of agricultural watershed.

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Computer-Based Fluency Evaluation of English Speaking Tests for Koreans (한국인을 위한 영어 말하기 시험의 컴퓨터 기반 유창성 평가)

  • Jang, Byeong-Yong;Kwon, Oh-Wook
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we propose an automatic fluency evaluation algorithm for English speaking tests. In the proposed algorithm, acoustic features are extracted from an input spoken utterance and then fluency score is computed by using support vector regression (SVR). We estimate the parameters of feature modeling and SVR using the speech signals and the corresponding scores by human raters. From the correlation analysis results, it is shown that speech rate, articulation rate, and mean length of runs are best for fluency evaluation. Experimental results show that the correlation between the human score and the SVR score is 0.87 for 3 speaking tests, which suggests the possibility of the proposed algorithm as a secondary fluency evaluation tool.

Several Problems in Reactor Coolant System Flow Rate Measurement

  • Ahn, Seung-Hoon;Auh, Geun-Sun;Suh, nam-Cuk;Park, Jun-Sang;Koo, Bon-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.592-608
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    • 1998
  • Inspection of RCS flow measurements for the domestic pressurized water reactors has been performed by the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) as one of the authorized periodical inspection activities. The inspection results for the Westinghouse-type plants reveal that 1) the RCS flow instrumentation has been calibrated by using the initial design and commissioning test result, without reflecting the cycle specific reference flow measurements, 2) the loop-to-loop now variation in the actual flow measurement which has not been considered in the safety analysis affects the asymmetric How transient results, and 3) the measured RCS flows in Kori 3 and 4, Yonggwang 1 and 2 do not support the definition of the best estimate RCS flow, approaching the RCS flow limit. In this study, the revealed problems were discussed with review of the design and the RCS flow measurement uncertainty evaluation, and the technical approaches and recommendations for resolving these problems were proposed.

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RECENT UPDATES TO NRC FUEL PERFORMANCE CODES AND PLANS FOR FUTURE IMPROVEMENTS

  • Geelhood, Kenneth
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.509-522
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    • 2011
  • FRAPCON-3.4a and FRAPTRAN 1.4 are the most recent versions of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) steady-state and transient fuel performance codes, respectively. These codes have been assessed against separate effects data and integral assessment data and have been determined to provide a best estimate calculation of fuel performance. Recent updates included in FRAPCON-3.4a include updated material properties models, models for new fuel and cladding types, cladding finite element analysis capability, and capability to perform uncertainty analyses and calculate upper tolerance limits for important outputs. Recent updates included in FRAPTRAN 1.4 include: material properties models that are consistent with FRAPCON-3.4a, cladding failure models that are applicable for loss-of coolant-accident and reactivity initiated accident modeling, and updated heat transfer models. This paper briefly describes these code updates and data assessments, highlighting the particularly important improvements and data assessments. This paper also discusses areas of improvements that will be addressed in upcoming code versions.

Models for Estimating Genetic Parameters of Milk Production Traits Using Random Regression Models in Korean Holstein Cattle

  • Cho, C.I.;Alam, M.;Choi, T.J.;Choy, Y.H.;Choi, J.G.;Lee, S.S.;Cho, K.H.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.607-614
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    • 2016
  • The objectives of the study were to estimate genetic parameters for milk production traits of Holstein cattle using random regression models (RRMs), and to compare the goodness of fit of various RRMs with homogeneous and heterogeneous residual variances. A total of 126,980 test-day milk production records of the first parity Holstein cows between 2007 and 2014 from the Dairy Cattle Improvement Center of National Agricultural Cooperative Federation in South Korea were used. These records included milk yield (MILK), fat yield (FAT), protein yield (PROT), and solids-not-fat yield (SNF). The statistical models included random effects of genetic and permanent environments using Legendre polynomials (LP) of the third to fifth order (L3-L5), fixed effects of herd-test day, year-season at calving, and a fixed regression for the test-day record (third to fifth order). The residual variances in the models were either homogeneous (HOM) or heterogeneous (15 classes, HET15; 60 classes, HET60). A total of nine models (3 orders of $polynomials{\times}3$ types of residual variance) including L3-HOM, L3-HET15, L3-HET60, L4-HOM, L4-HET15, L4-HET60, L5-HOM, L5-HET15, and L5-HET60 were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC) and/or Schwarz Bayesian information criteria (BIC) statistics to identify the model(s) of best fit for their respective traits. The lowest BIC value was observed for the models L5-HET15 (MILK; PROT; SNF) and L4-HET15 (FAT), which fit the best. In general, the BIC values of HET15 models for a particular polynomial order was lower than that of the HET60 model in most cases. This implies that the orders of LP and types of residual variances affect the goodness of models. Also, the heterogeneity of residual variances should be considered for the test-day analysis. The heritability estimates of from the best fitted models ranged from 0.08 to 0.15 for MILK, 0.06 to 0.14 for FAT, 0.08 to 0.12 for PROT, and 0.07 to 0.13 for SNF according to days in milk of first lactation. Genetic variances for studied traits tended to decrease during the earlier stages of lactation, which were followed by increases in the middle and decreases further at the end of lactation. With regards to the fitness of the models and the differential genetic parameters across the lactation stages, we could estimate genetic parameters more accurately from RRMs than from lactation models. Therefore, we suggest using RRMs in place of lactation models to make national dairy cattle genetic evaluations for milk production traits in Korea.

The analysis of groundwater table variations in Sylhet region, Bangladesh

  • Zafor, Md. Abu;Alam, Md. Jahir Bin;Rahman, Md. Azizur;Amin, Mohammad Nurul
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.369-376
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    • 2017
  • The trend analysis of the study was acquired by selecting multiyear monthly groundwater table data and monitors the wells in each sub-district under the study area. The intention of this research was to analyze the outcome of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test at greater than the significance level which is 95% of groundwater level in Sylhet. The aptitude is effective at two conjunctures where the confidence bounds are 95% and it meets the estimate line of Sen's. To calculate and assess the spatial differences in the inanition of groundwater table, geostatistical methods was applied based on data from 27 groundwater wells during the period from January 1975 to December 2011 which were obtained from a secondary source, Bangladesh Water Development Board. The geographic information system was used to assess the spatial change in order to find the level of groundwater. Cross-validation errors were found within an advisable level in estimating the groundwater depth with different interpolation models of ordinary kriging methods. Finally, surface maps were generated with the best-fitted model. The southeast region was found highly vulnerable from groundwater level point of view. Northern region was detected highest hazard prone area for diverge groundwater using kriging method.

Identification of the Most Conservative Condition for the Safety Analysis of a Nuclear Power Plant by Use of Random Sampling (무작위 추출 방법을 이용한 원자력발전소 보수적 안전해석 조건 결정)

  • Jeong, Hae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.131-137
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    • 2015
  • For the evaluation of safety margin of a nuclear power plant using a conservative methodology, the influence of applied assumptions such as initial conditions and boundary conditions needs to be assessed deliberately. Usually, a combination of the most conservative initial conditions is determined, and the safety margin for the transient is evaluated through the analysis for this conservative conditions. In existing conservative methodologies, a most-conservative condition is searched through the analyses for the maximum, minimum, and nominal values of the major parameters. In the present study, we investigates a new approach which can be applied to choose a most-conservative initial condition effectively when a best-estimate computer code and a conservative evaluation methodology are utilized for the evaluation of safety margin of transients. By constituting the band of various initial conditions using the random sampling of input parameters, the sensitivity study for various parameters are performed systematically. A method of sampling the value of control or operation parameters for a certain range is adopted by use of MOSAIQUE program, which enables to minimize the efforts for achieving the steady-state for various different conditions. A representative control parameter is identified, which governs the reactor coolant flow rate, pressurizer pressure, pressurizer level, and steam generator level, respectively. It is shown that an appropriate distribution of input parameter is obtained by adjusting the range and distribution of the control parameter.

Parameters Estimation in Longwave Radiation Formula (장파복사 모형의 매개변수 추정)

  • Cho, Hongyeon;Lee, Khil-Ha;Lee, Jungmi
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2012
  • Daily net radiation is essential for heat budget analysis for environmental impact assessment in the coastal zone and longwave radiation is an important element of net radiation because there is a significant exchange of radiant energy between the earth's surface and the atmosphere in the form of radiation at longer wavelengths. However, radiation data is not commonly available, and there has been no direct measurement for most areas where coastal environmental impact assessment is usually most needed. Often an empirical equation, e.g., Penman and FAO-24 formulae is used to estimate longwave radiation using temperature, humidity, and sunshine hour data but local calibration may be needed. In this study, local recalibration was performed to have best fit from a widely used longwave equation using the measured longwave radiation data in Korea Global Atmospheric Watch Center (KGAWC). The results shows recalibration can provided better performance AE=0.23($W/m^2$) and RMSE=14.73($W/m^2$). This study will contribute to improve the accuracy of the heat budget analysis in the coastal area.

Refined identification of hybrid traffic in DNS tunnels based on regression analysis

  • Bai, Huiwen;Liu, Guangjie;Zhai, Jiangtao;Liu, Weiwei;Ji, Xiaopeng;Yang, Luhui;Dai, Yuewei
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.40-52
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    • 2021
  • DNS (Domain Name System) tunnels almost obscure the true network activities of users, which makes it challenging for the gateway or censorship equipment to identify malicious or unpermitted network behaviors. An efficient way to address this problem is to conduct a temporal-spatial analysis on the tunnel traffic. Nevertheless, current studies on this topic limit the DNS tunnel to those with a single protocol, whereas more than one protocol may be used simultaneously. In this paper, we concentrate on the refined identification of two protocols mixed in a DNS tunnel. A feature set is first derived from DNS query and response flows, which is incorporated with deep neural networks to construct a regression model. We benchmark the proposed method with captured DNS tunnel traffic, the experimental results show that the proposed scheme can achieve identification accuracy of more than 90%. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed scheme is the first to estimate the ratios of two mixed protocols in DNS tunnels.