• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.407-416
• /
• 2001

Sample surveys are usually designed and analyzed to produce estimates for a large area or populations. Therefore, for the small area estimations, sample sizes are often not large enough to give adequate precision. Several small area estimation methods were proposed in recent years concerning with sample sizes. Here, we will compare simple Bayesian approach with Bayesian prediction for small area estimation based on linear regression model. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated through unemployment population data form Economic Active Population(EAP) Survey.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.9 no.1
• /
• pp.115-128
• /
• 2002

Hierarchical models are widely used for inference on correlated parameters as a compromise between underfitting and overfilling problems. In this paper, we take a Bayesian approach to analyzing hierarchical models and suggest a Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to get around computational difficulties in Bayesian analysis of the hierarchical models. We apply the method to a real data on smoking and lung cancer which are collected from cities in China.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.7 no.3
• /
• pp.817-827
• /
• 2000

In this paper, we investigate the Bayesian approach to random effect binomial regression models with improper prior due to the absence of information on parameter. We also propose a method of estimating the posterior moments and prediction and discuss some general methods for studying model assessment. The methodology is illustrated with Crowder's Seeds Data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to overcome the computational difficulties.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.107-124
• /
• 1999

An approximate Bayes criterion for multivariate Behrens-Fisher problem is proposed and examined. Development of the criterion involves derivation of approximate Bayes factor using the imaginary training sample approach introduced by Speigelhalter and Smith (1982). The criterion is designed to develop a Bayesian test, so that it provides an alternative test to other tests based upon asymptotic sampling theory (such as the tests suggested by Bennett(1951), James(1954) and Yao(1965). For the derived criterion, numerical studies demonstrate routine application and give comparisons with the classical tests.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.203-210
• /
• 2003

In a standard Metropolis-type Monte Carlo simulation, the proposal distribution cannot be easily adapted to "local dynamics" of the target distribution. To overcome some of these difficulties, Duane et al. (1987) introduced the method of hybrid Monte Carlo(HMC) which combines the basic idea of molecular dynamics and the Metropolis acceptance-rejection rule to produce Monte Carlo samples from a given target distribution. In this paper, using the HMC within Gibbs sampler, an asymptotical estimate of the smoothing mean and a general solution to state space modeling in Bayesian framework is obtaineds obtained.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
• /
• 2003.05a
• /
• pp.85-90
• /
• 2003

In this paper we develop a method for finding optimal ordering of K statistical models. This is based on a dependent paired comparison experimental arrangement whose results can naturally be represented by a completely oriented graph (also so called tournament graph). Introducing preference probabilities, strong transitivity conditions, and an optimal criterion to the graph, we show that a Hamiltonian path obtained from row sum ranking is the optimal ordering. Necessary theories involved in the method and computation are provided. As an application of the method, generalized variances of K multivariate normal populations are compared by a Bayesian approach.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• v.15 no.19
• /
• pp.8371-8376
• /
• 2014

Background: The use of statistical methods has become an imperative tool in breast cancer survival data analysis. The purpose of this study was to develop the best statistical probability model using the Bayesian method to predict future survival times for the black non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients diagnosed during 1973-2009 in the U.S. Materials and Methods: We used a stratified random sample of black non-Hispanic female breast cancer patient data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional regression methods. Four advanced types of statistical models, Exponentiated Exponential (EE), Beta Generalized Exponential (BGE), Exponentiated Weibull (EW), and Beta Inverse Weibull (BIW) were utilized for data analysis. The statistical model building criteria, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) were used to measure the goodness of fit tests. Furthermore, we used the Bayesian approach to obtain the predictive survival inferences from the best-fit data based on the exponentiated Weibull model. Results: We identified the highest number of black non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients in Michigan and the lowest in Hawaii. The mean (SD), of age at diagnosis (years) was 58.3 (14.43). The mean (SD), of survival time (months) for black non-Hispanic females was 66.8 (30.20). Non-Hispanic blacks had a significantly increased risk of death compared to Black Hispanics (Hazard ratio: 1.96, 95%CI: 1.51-2.54). Compared to other statistical probability models, we found that the exponentiated Weibull model better fits for the survival times. By making use of the Bayesian method predictive inferences for future survival times were obtained. Conclusions: These findings will be of great significance in determining appropriate treatment plans and health-care cost allocation. Furthermore, the same approach should contribute to build future predictive models for any health related diseases.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
• /
• v.13 no.6
• /
• pp.890-900
• /
• 2010

The Bayesian networks methods provide an efficient tool for performing information fusion and decision making under conditions of uncertainty. This paper proposes Bayes estimators for the system effectiveness in energy saving of the wireless sensor networks by use of the Bayesian method under the non-informative prior knowledge about means of active and sleep times based on time frames of sensor nodes in a wireless sensor network. And then, we conduct a case study on some Bayesian estimation models for the system energy saving effectiveness of a wireless sensor network, and evaluate and compare the performance of proposed Bayesian estimates of the system effectiveness in energy saving of the wireless sensor network. In the case study, we have recognized that the proposed Bayesian system energy saving effectiveness estimators are excellent to adapt in evaluation of energy efficiency using non-informative prior knowledge from previous experience with robustness according to given values of parameters.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.131-146
• /
• 2016

In research on behavioral studies, significant attention has been paid to the stage-sequential process for longitudinal data. Latent class profile analysis (LCPA) is an useful method to study sequential patterns of the behavioral development by the two-step identification process: identifying a small number of latent classes at each measurement occasion and two or more homogeneous subgroups in which individuals exhibit a similar sequence of latent class membership over time. Maximum likelihood (ML) estimates for LCPA are easily obtained by expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and Bayesian inference can be implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, unusual properties in the likelihood of LCPA can cause difficulties in ML and Bayesian inference as well as estimation in small samples. This article describes and addresses erratic problems that involve conventional ML and Bayesian estimates for LCPA with small samples. We argue that these problems can be alleviated with a small amount of prior input. This study evaluates the performance of likelihood and MCMC-based estimates with the proposed prior in drawing inference over repeated sampling. Our simulation shows that estimates from the proposed methods perform better than those from the conventional ML and Bayesian method.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.6 no.1
• /
• pp.207-220
• /
• 1999

In this paper, some of the issue about a group sequential method are considered in the Bayesian context. The continuous time optimal stopping boundary can be used to approximate the optimal stopping boundary for group sequential designs. The exact stopping boundary for group sequential design is obtained by using the backward induction method and is compared with the continuous optimal stopping boundary and the corrected continuous stopping boundary.