• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.617-631
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• 2000

This paper is concerned with suggesting a Bayesian method for variable selection in generalized logit model. It is based on Laplace-Metropolis algorithm intended to propose a simple method for estimating the marginal likelihood of the model. The algorithm then leads to a criterion for the selection of variables. The criterion is to find a subset of variables that maximizes the marginal likelihood of the model and it is seen to be a Bayes rule in a sense that it minimizes the risk of the variable selection under 0-1 loss function. Based upon two examples, the suggested method is illustrated and compared with existing frequentist methods.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권5호
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• pp.21-37
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• 2022

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is difficult to forecast because of the high volatility and complexity. To improve the BDI forecasting ability, this study apply Bayesian variable selection method with a large number of predictors. Our estimation results based on the BDI and all predictors from January 2000 to September 2021 indicate that the out-of-sample prediction ability of the ADL model with the variable selection is superior to that of the AR model in terms of point and density forecasting. We also find that critical predictors for the BDI change over forecasts horizon. The lagged BDI are being selected as an key predictor at all forecasts horizon, but commodity price, the clarksea index, and interest rates have additional information to predict BDI at mid-term horizon. This implies that time variations of predictors should be considered to predict the BDI.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.621-634
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• 2008

This paper addresses the problem of testing whether the means in several inverse Gaussian populations with heterogeneity are equal. The analysis of reciprocals for the equality of inverse Gaussian means needs the assumption of equal scale parameters. We propose Bayesian model selection procedures for testing equality of the inverse Gaussian means under the noninformative prior without the assumption of equal scale parameters. The noninformative prior is usually improper which yields a calibration problem that makes the Bayes factor to be defined up to a multiplicative constant. So we propose the objective Bayesian model selection procedures based on the fractional Bayes factor and the intrinsic Bayes factor under the reference prior. Simulation study and real data analysis are provided.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국통계학회 2000년도 추계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.5-12
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• 2000

Meta-analysis refers to quantitative methods for combining results from independent studies in order to draw overall conclusions. We consider hierarchical models including selection models under a skewed heavy tailed error distribution and it is shown to be useful in such Bayesian meta-analysis. A general class of skewed elliptical distribution is reviewed and developed. These rich class of models combine the information of independent studies, allowing investigation of variability both between and within studies, and weight function. Here we investigate sensitivity of results to unobserved studies by considering a hierarchical selection model and use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop inference for the parameters of interest.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국데이터정보과학회 2005년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.85-93
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• 2005

Tweedie (1957a) proposed a method for the analysis of residuals from an inverse Gaussian population paralleling the analysis of variance in normal theory. He called it the analysis of reciprocals. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model selection procedure based on the fractional Bayes factor for the analysis of reciprocals. Using the proposed model procedures, we compare with the classical tests.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.605-616
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• 2004

In this paper we consider the proportional hazard models for survival analysis in the microarray data. For a given vector of response values and gene expressions (covariates), we address the issue of how to reduce the dimension by selecting the significant genes. In our approach, rather than fixing the number of selected genes, we will assign a prior distribution to this number. To implement our methodology, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.435-451
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• 2001

We describe a hierarchical bayesian model to analyze multinomial nonignorable nonresponse data. Using a Dirichlet and beta prior to model the cell probabilities, We develop a complete hierarchical bayesian analysis for multinomial proportions without making any algebraic approximation. Inference is sampling based and Markove chain Monte Carlo methods are used to perform the computations. We apply our method to the dta on body mass index(BMI) and show the model works reasonably well.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.241-253
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• 2015

In this paper we predict the track of typhoons using a Bayesian principal component regression model based on wind field data. Data is obtained at each time point and we applied the Bayesian principal component regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the time point. Based on regression model, we applied to variable selection prior and two kinds of prior distribution; normal and Laplace distribution. We show prediction results based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and Median Probability Model (MPM) estimator. We analysis 8 typhoons in 2006 using data obtained from previous 6 years (2000-2005). We compare our prediction results with a moving-nest typhoon model (MTM) proposed by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We posit that is possible to predict the track of a typhoon accurately using only a statistical model and without a dynamical model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.813-820
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• 1999

Supprot vector machine(SVM) is a new and very promising regression and classification technique developed by Vapnik and his group at AT&T Bell Laboratories. in this paper we provide a brief overview of SVM for regression. Furthermore we describe Bayesian model selection based on macKay's evidence framework for SVM regression.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.435-448
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• 2018

This paper reports the development of a theoretically rigorous method for permanent way engineers to assess the condition of railway ballast under a concrete sleeper with the potential to be extended to a smart system for long-term health monitoring of railway ballast. Owing to the uncertainties induced by the problems of modeling error and measurement noise, the Bayesian approach was followed in the development. After the selection of the most plausible model class for describing the damage status of the rail-sleeper-ballast system, Bayesian model updating is adopted to calculate the posterior PDF of the ballast stiffness at various regions under the sleeper. An obvious drop in ballast stiffness at a region under the sleeper is an evidence of ballast damage. In model updating, the model that can minimize the discrepancy between the measured and model-predicted modal parameters can be considered as the most probable model for calculating the posterior PDF under the Bayesian framework. To address the problems of non-uniqueness and local minima in the model updating process, a two-stage hybrid optimization method was developed. The modified evolutionary algorithm was developed in the first stage to identify the important regions in the parameter space and resulting in a set of initial trials for deterministic optimization to locate all most probable models in the second stage. The proposed methodology was numerically and experimentally verified. Using the identified model, a series of comprehensive numerical case studies was carried out to investigate the effects of data quantity and quality on the results of ballast damage detection. Difficulties to be overcome before the proposed method can be extended to a long-term ballast monitoring system are discussed in the conclusion.