• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.136-136
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• 2020

홍수와 가뭄은 우리나라에 대표적인 수재해로서 관련 연구도 활발히 진행되고 있다. 반면 겨울철에 발생하는 적설의 경우 발생빈도와 피해가 상대적으로 적었으며 관련 연구 또한 미비한 실정이다. 우리나라 일부 남부지방은 강우와 다르게 연중 눈이 내리지 않는 경우가 존재하며, 자료 중 '0'값을 가지게 된다. 이로 인해 최적분포형 선정 및 매개변수 추정에 어려움이 있으며, 특히 '0'값으로 인해 단일 확률분포를 이용한 빈도해석은 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 연중 눈이 내리지 않는 무적설량을 고려하기 위하여 두 가지 이상의 확률분포함수를 결합한 혼합분포함수를 개발하였다. Bayesian 기법을 이용하여 무강우의 기준이 되는 값(δ)을 매개변수로 고려하여 추정하였으며, 이에 따른 적설발생 평균확률(P을 Mixing Ratio로 고려하여 혼합분포함수를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 기상청 산하 관측소 중 20년 이상의 지점을 선정하여 최심신적설량을 활용하였으며, 빈도별 확률적설심을 산정하였다. 적합한 확률분포형 선정을 위해 먼저 Bayesian 기법으로 매개변수와 우도함수를 산정한 후 각 분포형의 BIC(bayesian information criterion)값을 비교하였다. 선정된 최적분포형에 대해 빈도분석을 실시하여 최심신적설량을 제시하였다. 추가적으로 무강우를 기존 기준인 '0'으로 고정하여 본 연구에서 제시한 결과 값과 비교하였다.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.41-47
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• 2024

In this paper, we deal with a game theoretic problem to explore interactions between evasive Artificial Intelligence (AI) malware and detectors in Internet of Things (IoT). Evasive AI malware is defined as malware having capability of eluding detection by exploiting artificial intelligence such as machine learning and deep leaning. Detectors are defined as IoT devices participating in detection of evasive AI malware in IoT. They can be separated into two groups such that one group of detectors can be armed with detection capability powered by AI, the other group cannot be armed with it. Evasive AI malware can take three strategies of Non-attack, Non-AI attack, AI attack. To cope with these strategies of evasive AI malware, detector can adopt three strategies of Non-defense, Non-AI defense, AI defense. We formulate a Bayesian game theoretic model with these strategies employed by evasive AI malware and detector. We derive pure strategy Bayesian Nash Equilibria in a single stage game from the formulated Bayesian game theoretic model. Our devised work is useful in the sense that it can be used as a basic game theoretic model for developing AI malware detection schemes.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.4B
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• pp.383-392
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• 2008

It is not always easy to estimate the parameters in hydrologic models due to insufficient hydrologic data when hydraulic structures are designed or water resources plan are established. Therefore, uncertainty analysis are inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. The NWS-PC model is calibrated against observed daily runoff, and thirteen parameters in the model are optimized as well as posterior distributions associated with each parameter are derived. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo shows a improved result in terms of statistical performance measures and graphical examination. The patterns of runoff can be influenced by various factors and the Bayesian approaches are capable of translating the uncertainties into parameter uncertainties. One could provide against an unexpected runoff event by utilizing information driven by Bayesian methods. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff analysis coupled with the uncertainty analysis can give us an insight in evaluating flood risk and dam size in a reasonable way.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.29 no.11
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• pp.775-784
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• 2002

Microarray data, obtained from DNA chip technologies, is the measurement of the expression level of thousands of genes in cells or tissues. It is used for gene function prediction or cancer diagnosis based on gene expression patterns. Among diverse methods for data analysis, the Bayesian network represents the relationships among data attributes in the form of a graph structure. This property enables us to discover various relations among genes and the characteristics of the tissue (e.g., the cancer type) through microarray data analysis. However, most of the present microarray data sets are so sparse that it is difficult to apply general analysis methods, including Bayesian networks, directly. In this paper, we harness an efficient structural learning algorithm and data dimensionality reduction in order to analyze microarray data using Bayesian networks. The proposed method was applied to the analysis of real microarray data, i.e., the NC160 data set. And its usefulness was evaluated based on the accuracy of the teamed Bayesian networks on representing the known biological facts.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.208-216
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• 2009

A number of estimation of distribution algorithms have been proposed that do not use explicitly crossover and mutation of traditional genetic algorithms, but estimate the distribution of population for more efficient search. But because it is not easy to discover higher-order correlations of variables, lower-order correlations are estimated most cases under various constraints. In this paper, we propose a new estimation of distribution algorithm that represents higher-order correlations of the data and finds global optimum more efficiently. The proposed algorithm represents the higher-order correlations among variables by building random hypergraph model composed of hyperedges consisting of variables which are expected to be correlated, and generates the next population by Bayesian sampling algorithm Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can find global optimum and outperforms the simple genetic algorithm and BOA(Bayesian Optimization Algorithm) on decomposable functions with deceptive building blocks.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.31 no.8
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• pp.1092-1100
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• 2004

An E-mails have regarded as one of the most popular methods for exchanging information because of easy usage and low cost. Meanwhile, exponentially growing unwanted mails in user's mailbox have been raised as main problem. Recognizing this issue, Korean government established a law in order to prevent e-mail abuse. In this paper we suggest hybrid spam mail filtering system using weighted Bayesian classifier which is extended from naive Bayesian classifier by adding the concept of preprocessing and intelligent agents. This system can classify spam mails automatically by using training data without manual definition of message rules. Particularly, we improved filtering efficiency by imposing weight on some character by feature extraction from spam mails. Finally, we show efficiency comparison among four cases - naive Bayesian, weighting on e-mail header, weighting on HTML tags, weighting on hyperlinks and combining all of four cases. As compared with naive Bayesian classifier, the proposed system obtained 5.7% decreased precision, while the recall and F-measure of this system increased by 33.3% and 31.2%, respectively.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.2338-2356
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• 2013

In cognitive radio networks, acquiring the position information of the primary user is critical to the communication of the secondary user. Localization of primary users can help improve the efficiency with which the spectrum is reused, because the information can be used to avoid harmful interference to the network while simultaneity is exploited to improve the spectrum utilization. Despite its inherent inaccuracy, received signal strength based on range has been used as the standard tool for distance measurements in the location detection process. Most previous works have employed the path-loss propagation model with a fixed value of the path loss exponent. However, in actual environments, the path loss exponent for each channel is different. Moreover, due to the complexity of the radio channel, when the number of channel increases, a larger number of RSS measurements are needed, and this results in additional energy consumption. In this paper, to overcome this problem, we propose using the Bayesian compressive sensing method with a calibrated path loss exponent to improve the performance of the PU localization method.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.84-90
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• 2011

In this paper, a VoIP-based voice secure telecommunication technology using the text-independent speaker authentication in the telematics environments is proposed. For the secure telecommunication, the sender's voice packets are encrypted by the public-key generated from the speaker's voice information and submitted to the receiver. It is constructed to resist against the man-in-the middle attack. At the receiver side, voice features extracted from the received voice packets are compared with the reference voice-key received from the sender side for the speaker authentication. To improve the accuracy of text-independent speaker authentication, Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM)-supervectors are applied to Support Vector Machine (SVM) kernel using Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and Mahalanobis distance (MD).

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.75-83
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• 2015

In mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs), nodes are mobile in nature. Collaboration between mobile nodes is more significant in MANETs, which have as their greatest challenges vulnerabilities to various security attacks and an inability to operate securely while preserving its resources and performing secure routing among nodes. Therefore, it is essential to develop an effective secure routing protocol to protect the nodes from anonymous behaviors. Currently, game theory is a tool that analyzes, formulates and solves selfishness issues. It is seldom applied to detect malicious behavior in networks. It deals, instead, with the strategic and rational behavior of each node. In our study,we used the dynamic Bayesian signaling game to analyze the strategy profile for regular and malicious nodes. This game also revealed the best actions of individual strategies for each node. Perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE) provides a prominent solution for signaling games to solve incomplete information by combining strategies and payoff of players that constitute equilibrium. Using PBE strategies of nodes are private information of regular and malicious nodes. Regular nodes should be cooperative during routing and update their payoff, while malicious nodes take sophisticated risks by evaluating their risk of being identified to decide when to decline. This approach minimizes the utility of malicious nodes and it motivates better cooperation between nodes by using the reputation system. Regular nodes monitor continuously to evaluate their neighbors using belief updating systems of the Bayes rule.

• Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.614-618
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• 2008

As the multimedia data increase a lot with the rapid development of the Internet, an efficient retrieval technique focusing on individual users is required based on the analyses of such data. However, user modeling services provided by recent web sites have the limitation of text-based page configurations and recommendation retrieval. In this paper, we construct the user preference model with a Bayesian network to apply the user modeling to video retrieval, and suggest a method which utilizes probability reasoning. To do this, context information is defined in a real office environment and the video scripts acquired from established cameras and annotated the context information manually are used. Personal information of the user, obtained from user input, is adopted for the evidence value of the constructed Bayesian Network, and user preference is inferred. The probability value, which is produced from the result of Bayesian Network reasoning, is used for retrieval, making the system return the retrieval result suitable for each user's preference. The usability test indicates that the satisfaction level of the selected results based on the proposed model is higher than general retrieval method.