• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian inference model

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Bayesian Analysis for Multiple Capture-Recapture Models using Reference Priors

  • Younshik;Pongsu
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.165-178
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    • 2000
  • Bayesian methods are considered for the multiple caputure-recapture data. Reference priors are developed for such model and sampling-based approach through Gibbs sampler is used for inference from posterior distributions. Furthermore approximate Bayes factors are obtained for model selection between trap and nontrap response models. Finally one methodology is implemented for a capture-recapture model in generated data and real data.

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The Bivariate Kumaraswamy Weibull regression model: a complete classical and Bayesian analysis

  • Fachini-Gomes, Juliana B.;Ortega, Edwin M.M.;Cordeiro, Gauss M.;Suzuki, Adriano K.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.523-544
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    • 2018
  • Bivariate distributions play a fundamental role in survival and reliability studies. We consider a regression model for bivariate survival times under right-censored based on the bivariate Kumaraswamy Weibull (Cordeiro et al., Journal of the Franklin Institute, 347, 1399-1429, 2010) distribution to model the dependence of bivariate survival data. We describe some structural properties of the marginal distributions. The method of maximum likelihood and a Bayesian procedure are adopted to estimate the model parameters. We use diagnostic measures based on the local influence and Bayesian case influence diagnostics to detect influential observations in the new model. We also show that the estimates in the bivariate Kumaraswamy Weibull regression model are robust to deal with the presence of outliers in the data. In addition, we use some measures of goodness-of-fit to evaluate the bivariate Kumaraswamy Weibull regression model. The methodology is illustrated by means of a real lifetime data set for kidney patients.

Bayesian Analysis of Randomized Response Models : A Gibbs Sampling Approach

  • Oh, Man-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.463-482
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    • 1994
  • In Bayesian analysis of randomized response models, the likelihood function does not combine tractably with typical priors for the parameters of interest, causing computational difficulties in posterior analysis of the parameters of interest. In this article, the difficulties are solved by introducing appropriate latent variables to the model and using the Gibbs sampling algorithm.

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A SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ESTIMATION METHOD TO NUCLEAR SAFETY SOFTWARE

  • Park, Gee-Yong;Jang, Seung Cheol
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2014
  • A method for estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed in this paper. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM), where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. Two types of modeling schemes based on a particular underlying method are proposed in order to more precisely estimate and predict the number of software defects based on very rare software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating software test cases as a covariate into the model. It was identified that these models are capable of reasonably estimating the remaining number of software defects which directly affects the reactor trip functions. The software reliability might be estimated from these modeling equations, and one approach of obtaining software reliability value is proposed in this paper.

Bayesian Model for Probabilistic Unsupervised Learning (확률적 자율 학습을 위한 베이지안 모델)

  • 최준혁;김중배;김대수;임기욱
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.849-854
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    • 2001
  • GTM(Generative Topographic Mapping) model is a probabilistic version of the SOM(Self Organizing Maps) which was proposed by T. Kohonen. The GTM is modelled by latent or hidden variables of probability distribution of data. It is a unique characteristic not implemented in SOM model, and, therefore, it is possible with GTM to analyze data accurately, thereby overcoming the limits of SOM. In the present investigation we proposed a BGTM(Bayesian GTM) combined with Bayesian learning and GTM model that has a small mis-classification ratio. By combining fast calculation ability and probabilistic distribution of data of GTM with correct reasoning based on Bayesian model, the BGTM model provided improved results, compared with existing models.

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Inference of Parameters for Superposition with Goel-Okumoto model and Weibull model Using Gibbs Sampler

  • Heecheul Kim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.169-180
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    • 1999
  • A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with development of computation is used to be the software system reliability probability model. For Bayesian estimator considering computational problem and theoretical justification we studies relation Markov Chain with Gibbs sampling. Special case of GOS with Superposition for Goel-Okumoto and Weibull models using Gibbs sampling and Metropolis algorithm considered. In this paper discuss Bayesian computation and model selection using posterior predictive likelihood criterion. We consider in this paper data using method by Cox-Lewis. A numerical example with a simulated data set is given.

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Bayesian analysis of directional conditionally autoregressive models (방향성 공간적 조건부 자기회귀 모형의 베이즈 분석 방법)

  • Kyung, Minjung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.1133-1146
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    • 2016
  • Counts or averages over arbitrary regions are often analyzed using conditionally autoregressive (CAR) models. The spatial neighborhoods within CAR model are generally formed using only the inter-distance or boundaries between the sub-regions. Kyung and Ghosh (2009) proposed a new class of models to accommodate spatial variations that may depend on directions, using different weights given to neighbors in different directions. The proposed model, directional conditionally autoregressive (DCAR) model, generalized the usual CAR model by accounting for spatial anisotropy. Bayesian inference method is discussed based on efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of the posterior distributions of the parameters. The method is illustrated using a data set of median property prices across Greater Glasgow, Scotland, in 2008.

Uncertainty Analysis of Parameters of Spatial Statistical Model Using Bayesian Method for Estimating Spatial Distribution of Probability Rainfall (확률강우량의 공간분포추정에 있어서 Bayesian 기법을 이용한 공간통계모델의 매개변수 불확실성 해석)

  • Seo, Young-Min;Park, Ki-Bum;Kim, Sung-Won
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.1541-1551
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    • 2011
  • This study applied the Bayesian method for the quantification of the parameter uncertainty of spatial linear mixed model in the estimation of the spatial distribution of probability rainfall. In the application of Bayesian method, the prior sensitivity analysis was implemented by using the priors normally selected in the existing studies which applied the Bayesian method for the puppose of assessing the influence which the selection of the priors of model parameters had on posteriors. As a result, the posteriors of parameters were differently estimated which priors were selected, and then in the case of the prior combination, F-S-E, the sizes of uncertainty intervals were minimum and the modes, means and medians of the posteriors were similar to the estimates using the existing classical methods. From the comparitive analysis between Bayesian and plug-in spatial predictions, we could find that the uncertainty of plug-in prediction could be slightly underestimated than that of Bayesian prediction.

Initial Mass Function and Star Formation History in the Small Magellanic Cloud

  • Lee, Ki-Won
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.362-374
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    • 2014
  • This study investigated the initial mass function (IMF) and star formation history of high-mass stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) using a population synthesis technique. We used the photometric survey catalog of Lee (2013) as the observable quantities and compare them with those of synthetic populations based on Bayesian inference. For the IMF slope (${\Gamma}$) range of -1.1 to -3.5 with steps of 0.1, five types of star formation models were tested: 1) continuous; 2) single burst at 10 Myr; 3) single burst at 60 Myr; 4) double bursts at those epochs; and 5) a complex hybrid model. In this study, a total of 125 models were tested. Based on the model calculations, it was found that the continuous model could simulate the high-mass stars of the SMC and that its IMF slope was -1.6 which is slightly steeper than Salpeter's IMF, i.e., ${\Gamma}=-1.35$.

Online nonparametric Bayesian analysis of parsimonious Gaussian mixture models and scenes clustering

  • Zhou, Ri-Gui;Wang, Wei
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.74-81
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    • 2021
  • The mixture model is a very powerful and flexible tool in clustering analysis. Based on the Dirichlet process and parsimonious Gaussian distribution, we propose a new nonparametric mixture framework for solving challenging clustering problems. Meanwhile, the inference of the model depends on the efficient online variational Bayesian approach, which enhances the information exchange between the whole and the part to a certain extent and applies to scalable datasets. The experiments on the scene database indicate that the novel clustering framework, when combined with a convolutional neural network for feature extraction, has meaningful advantages over other models.