• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.445-470
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• 2016

In this study, the Bayesian probabilistic framework is investigated for modal identification and modal identifiability based on the field measurements provided in the structural health monitoring benchmark problem of an instrumented cable-stayed bridge named Ting Kau Bridge (TKB). The comprehensive structural health monitoring system on the cable-stayed TKB has been operated for more than ten years and it is recognized as one of the best test-beds with readily available field measurements. The benchmark problem of the cable-stayed bridge is established to stimulate investigations on modal identifiability and the present paper addresses this benchmark problem from the Bayesian prospective. In contrast to deterministic approaches, an appealing feature of the Bayesian approach is that not only the optimal values of the modal parameters can be obtained but also the associated estimation uncertainty can be quantified in the form of probability distribution. The uncertainty quantification provides necessary information to evaluate the reliability of parametric identification results as well as modal identifiability. Herein, the Bayesian spectral density approach is conducted for output-only modal identification and the Bayesian model class selection approach is used to evaluate the significance of different modes in modal identification. Detailed analysis on the modal identification and modal identifiability based on the measurements of the bridge will be presented. Moreover, the advantages and potentials of Bayesian probabilistic framework on structural health monitoring will be discussed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.176-176
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• 2018

This study presents a regional, probabilistic framework for estimating streamflow via spatial scaling in the Great Lakes basin, which is the largest lake system in the world. The framework follows a two-fold strategy including (1) a quadratic-programming based optimization model a priori to explore the model structure, and (2) a time-varying hierarchical Bayesian model based on insights found in the optimization model. The proposed model is developed to explore three innovations in hierarchical modeling for reconstructing historical streamflow at ungaged sites: (1) information of physical characteristics is utilized in spatial scaling, (2) a time-varying approach is introduced based on climate information, and (3) heteroscedasticity in residual errors is considered to improve streamflow predictive distributions. The proposed model is developed and calibrated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to pool regional information across sites and enhance regionalization skill. The model is validated in a cross-validation framework along with four simpler nested formulations and the optimization model to confirm specific hypotheses embedded in the full model structure. The nested models assume a similar hierarchical Bayesian structure to our proposed model with their own set of simplifications and omissions. Results suggest that each of three innovations improve historical out-of-sample streamflow reconstructions although these improvements vary corrsponding to each innovation. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of possible model improvements considered by additional model structure and covariates.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.1213-1220
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• 2022

The Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG) is a critical and essential part of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). Due to past catastrophic disasters, critical systems of NPP like EDG are designed to meet high dependability requirements. Therefore, we propose a framework for the dynamic reliability assessment using the Fault Tree and the Dynamic Bayesian Network. In this framework, the information of the component's failure probability is updated based on observed data. The framework is powerful to perform qualitative as well as quantitative analysis of the system. The validity of the framework is done by applying it on several NPP systems.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.10 no.4_5
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• pp.375-391
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• 2012

This paper reports the structural health monitoring benchmark study results for the Canton Tower using Bayesian methods. In this study, output-only modal identification and finite element model updating are considered using a given set of structural acceleration measurements and the corresponding ambient conditions of 24 hours. In the first stage, the Bayesian spectral density approach is used for output-only modal identification with the acceleration time histories as the excitation to the tower is unknown. The modal parameters and the associated uncertainty can be estimated through Bayesian inference. Uncertainty quantification is important for determination of statistically significant change of the modal parameters and for weighting assignment in the subsequent stage of model updating. In the second stage, a Bayesian model updating approach is utilized to update the finite element model of the tower. The uncertain stiffness parameters can be obtained by minimizing an objective function that is a weighted sum of the square of the differences (residuals) between the identified modal parameters and the corresponding values of the model. The weightings distinguish the contribution of different residuals with different uncertain levels. They are obtained using the Bayesian spectral density approach in the first stage. Again, uncertainty of the stiffness parameters can be quantified with Bayesian inference. Finally, this Bayesian framework is applied to the 24-hour field measurements to investigate the variation of the modal and stiffness parameters under changing ambient conditions. Results show that the Bayesian framework successfully achieves the goal of the first task of this benchmark study.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.819-829
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• 2024

This paper delves into an examination of both non-Bayesian and Bayesian estimation techniques for determining the Topp-leone inverse Weibull distribution parameters based on progressive Type-II censoring. The first approach employs expectation maximization (EM) algorithms to derive maximum likelihood estimates for these variables. Subsequently, Bayesian estimators are obtained by utilizing symmetric and asymmetric loss functions such as Squared error and Linex loss functions. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is invoked to obtain these Bayesian estimates, solidifying their reliability in this framework.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.813-820
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• 1999

Supprot vector machine(SVM) is a new and very promising regression and classification technique developed by Vapnik and his group at AT&T Bell Laboratories. in this paper we provide a brief overview of SVM for regression. Furthermore we describe Bayesian model selection based on macKay's evidence framework for SVM regression.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.74-81
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• 2021

The mixture model is a very powerful and flexible tool in clustering analysis. Based on the Dirichlet process and parsimonious Gaussian distribution, we propose a new nonparametric mixture framework for solving challenging clustering problems. Meanwhile, the inference of the model depends on the efficient online variational Bayesian approach, which enhances the information exchange between the whole and the part to a certain extent and applies to scalable datasets. The experiments on the scene database indicate that the novel clustering framework, when combined with a convolutional neural network for feature extraction, has meaningful advantages over other models.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.147-153
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• 2017

In order to demonstrate a target reliability with a specified confidence level, a new two-stage Bayesian Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) plans that is known to be more effective than a corresponding single-stage one is proposed and developed by Bayesian framework with beta prior distribution for Weibull life time distribution. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed RDT plans and compared with other non-Bayesian and Bayesian plans. Comparative results show that the proposed Bayesian two-stage plans have some merits in terms of required and expected testing time and probability of acceptance.

• Coupled systems mechanics
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.211-232
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• 2018

In this work we present an upscaling technique for multi-scale computations based on a stochastic model calibration technique. We consider a coarse-scale continuum material model described in the framework of generalized standard materials. The model parameters are considered uncertain, and are determined in a Bayesian framework for the given fine scale data in a form of stored energy and dissipation potential. The proposed stochastic upscaling approach is independent w.r.t. the choice of models on coarse and fine scales. Simple numerical examples are shown to demonstrate the ability of the proposed approach to calibrate coarse scale elastic and inelastic material parameters.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.543-553
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• 2016

The growing complexity of modern technological systems requires more flexible and powerful reliability analysis tools. Existing tools encounter a number of limitations including lack of modeling power to address components interactions for complex systems and lack of flexibility in handling component failure distribution. We propose a reliability modeling framework based on the Bayesian network (BN). It can combine historical data with expert judgment to treat data scarcity. The proposed methodology is applied to wind turbines reliability analysis. The observed result shows that a BN based reliability modeling is a powerful potential solution to modeling and analyzing various kinds of system components behaviors and interactions. Moreover, BN provides performing several inference approaches such as smoothing, filtering, what-if analysis, and sensitivity analysis for considering system.