• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian Statistics

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Study on the Multilevel Effects of Integrated Crisis Intervention Model for the Prevention of Elderly Suicide: Focusing on Suicidal Ideation and Depression (노인자살예방을 위한 통합적 위기개입모델 다층효과 연구: 자살생각·우울을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Eun Joo;Yook, Sung Pil
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.173-200
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    • 2017
  • This study is designed to verify the actual effect on the prevention of the elderly suicide of the integrated crisis intervention service which has been widely provided across all local communities in Gyeonggi-province focusing on the integrated crisis intervention model developed for the prevention of elderly suicide. The integrated crisis intervention model for the local communities and its manual were developed for the prevention of elderly suicide by integrating the crisis intervention theory which contains local community's integrated system approach and the stress vulnerability theory. For the analysis of the effect, the geriatric depression and suicidal ideation scale was adopted and the data was collected as follows; The data was collected from 258 people in the first preliminary test. Then, it was collected from the secondary test of 184 people after the integrated crisis intervention service was performed for 6 months. The third collection of data was made from 124 people after 2 or 3 years later using the backward tracing method. As for the analysis, the researcher used the R Statistics computing to conduct the test equating, and the vertical scaling between measuring points. Then, the researcher conducted descriptive statistics analysis and univariate analysis of variance, and performed multi-level modeling analysis using Bayesian estimation. As a result of the study, it was found out that the integrated crisis intervention model which has been developed for the elderly suicide prevention has a statistically significant effect on the reduction of elderly suicide in terms of elderly depression and suicide ideation in the follow-up measurement after the implementation of crisis intervention rather than in the first preliminary scores. The integrated crisis intervention model for the prevention of elderly suicide was found to be effective to the extent of 0.56 for the reduction of depression and 0.39 for the reduction of suicidal ideation. However, it was found out in the backward tracing test conducted 2-3 years after the first crisis intervention that the improved values returned to its original state, thus showing that the effect of the intervention is not maintained for long. Multilevel analysis was conducted to find out the factors such as the service type(professional counseling, medication, peer counseling), characteristics of the client (sex, age), the characteristics of the counselor(age, career, major) and the interaction between the characteristics of the counselor and intervention which affect depression and suicidal ideation. It was found that only medication can significantly reduce suicidal ideation and that if the counselor's major is counseling, it significantly further reduces suicidal ideation by interacting with professional counseling. Furthermore, as the characteristics of the suicide prevention experts are found to regulate the intervention effect on elderly suicide prevention in applying integrated crisis intervention model, the primary consideration should be given to the counseling ability of these experts.

Optimal supervised LSA method using selective feature dimension reduction (선택적 자질 차원 축소를 이용한 최적의 지도적 LSA 방법)

  • Kim, Jung-Ho;Kim, Myung-Kyu;Cha, Myung-Hoon;In, Joo-Ho;Chae, Soo-Hoan
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.47-60
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    • 2010
  • Most of the researches about classification usually have used kNN(k-Nearest Neighbor), SVM(Support Vector Machine), which are known as learn-based model, and Bayesian classifier, NNA(Neural Network Algorithm), which are known as statistics-based methods. However, there are some limitations of space and time when classifying so many web pages in recent internet. Moreover, most studies of classification are using uni-gram feature representation which is not good to represent real meaning of words. In case of Korean web page classification, there are some problems because of korean words property that the words have multiple meanings(polysemy). For these reasons, LSA(Latent Semantic Analysis) is proposed to classify well in these environment(large data set and words' polysemy). LSA uses SVD(Singular Value Decomposition) which decomposes the original term-document matrix to three different matrices and reduces their dimension. From this SVD's work, it is possible to create new low-level semantic space for representing vectors, which can make classification efficient and analyze latent meaning of words or document(or web pages). Although LSA is good at classification, it has some drawbacks in classification. As SVD reduces dimensions of matrix and creates new semantic space, it doesn't consider which dimensions discriminate vectors well but it does consider which dimensions represent vectors well. It is a reason why LSA doesn't improve performance of classification as expectation. In this paper, we propose new LSA which selects optimal dimensions to discriminate and represent vectors well as minimizing drawbacks and improving performance. This method that we propose shows better and more stable performance than other LSAs' in low-dimension space. In addition, we derive more improvement in classification as creating and selecting features by reducing stopwords and weighting specific values to them statistically.

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Application of Stable Isotopic Niche Space to Large River Monitoring: Analysis of Benthic Macroinvertebrates of the Seongchon Wier (안정동위원소비를 활용한 생태지위면적 분석의 수생태계 평가 가능성 분석: 영산강 승촌보의 저서성 대형무척추동물을 대상으로)

  • Seo, Dong-Hwan;Oh, Hye-Ji;Jin, Mei-Yan;Oda, Yusuke;Kim, Hyun-Woo;Jang, Min-Ho;Choi, Bohyung;Shin, Kyung-Hoon;Lee, Kyung-Lak;Lee, Su-Woong;Chang, Kwang-Hyeon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.685-694
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    • 2018
  • We measured ecological niche space (ENS) using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of benthic macroinvertebrates to estimate its applicability for large river assessment. In particular, we compared ENSs of selected macroinvertebrates between upper and lower area of Seungchon Weir in Yeongsan River to estimate the impact of weir on biological community. We also measured basic water quality and community indices including benthic macroinvertebrates index (BMI) to estimate their correlations with calculated ENS. ENS was calculated using the Bayesian Stable Isotope in R statistics (package "SIBER"). The results showed that seasonal variations in water quality and community indices were found, but there was no apparent tendency between upper and lower area of the Seungchon Weir in June (before rainy season) and August (after rainy season). However, ENS of benthic macroinvertebrates markedly decreased across the weir in both June and August regardless of changes in water quality. This means the physical change of the stream due to the weir cause decrease of ecological isotopic niche space of benthic macroinvertebrates regardless of water quality, suggesting physical modification by the weir can affect the interaction between habitat condition and macroinvertebrates. Therefore, the ecological isotopic niche space can be a useful supplementary indicator for the river ecosystem assessment.

Models for Estimating Genetic Parameters of Milk Production Traits Using Random Regression Models in Korean Holstein Cattle

  • Cho, C.I.;Alam, M.;Choi, T.J.;Choy, Y.H.;Choi, J.G.;Lee, S.S.;Cho, K.H.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.607-614
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    • 2016
  • The objectives of the study were to estimate genetic parameters for milk production traits of Holstein cattle using random regression models (RRMs), and to compare the goodness of fit of various RRMs with homogeneous and heterogeneous residual variances. A total of 126,980 test-day milk production records of the first parity Holstein cows between 2007 and 2014 from the Dairy Cattle Improvement Center of National Agricultural Cooperative Federation in South Korea were used. These records included milk yield (MILK), fat yield (FAT), protein yield (PROT), and solids-not-fat yield (SNF). The statistical models included random effects of genetic and permanent environments using Legendre polynomials (LP) of the third to fifth order (L3-L5), fixed effects of herd-test day, year-season at calving, and a fixed regression for the test-day record (third to fifth order). The residual variances in the models were either homogeneous (HOM) or heterogeneous (15 classes, HET15; 60 classes, HET60). A total of nine models (3 orders of $polynomials{\times}3$ types of residual variance) including L3-HOM, L3-HET15, L3-HET60, L4-HOM, L4-HET15, L4-HET60, L5-HOM, L5-HET15, and L5-HET60 were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC) and/or Schwarz Bayesian information criteria (BIC) statistics to identify the model(s) of best fit for their respective traits. The lowest BIC value was observed for the models L5-HET15 (MILK; PROT; SNF) and L4-HET15 (FAT), which fit the best. In general, the BIC values of HET15 models for a particular polynomial order was lower than that of the HET60 model in most cases. This implies that the orders of LP and types of residual variances affect the goodness of models. Also, the heterogeneity of residual variances should be considered for the test-day analysis. The heritability estimates of from the best fitted models ranged from 0.08 to 0.15 for MILK, 0.06 to 0.14 for FAT, 0.08 to 0.12 for PROT, and 0.07 to 0.13 for SNF according to days in milk of first lactation. Genetic variances for studied traits tended to decrease during the earlier stages of lactation, which were followed by increases in the middle and decreases further at the end of lactation. With regards to the fitness of the models and the differential genetic parameters across the lactation stages, we could estimate genetic parameters more accurately from RRMs than from lactation models. Therefore, we suggest using RRMs in place of lactation models to make national dairy cattle genetic evaluations for milk production traits in Korea.

Genetic Variation of Korean Fir Sub-Populations in Mt. Jiri for the Restoration of Genetic Diversity (유전다양성 복원을 위한 지리산 구상나무 아집단의 유전변이)

  • Ahn, Ji Young;Lim, Hyo-In;Ha, Hyun-Woo;Han, Jingyu;Han, Sim-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.4
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    • pp.417-423
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    • 2017
  • To provide a ecological restoration strategy considering genetic diversity of Abies koreana in Mt. Jiri, the genetic diversity and the genetic differentiation among sub-populations such as Banyabong, Byeoksoryeong, and Cheonwangbong were investigated. The average number of alleles (A) was 7.8, the average number of effective alleles ($A_e$) was 4.9, observed heterozygosity ($H_o$) was 0.578, and expected heterozygosity ($H_e$) was 0.672, respectively. The level of genetic diversity within sub-populations ($H_e=0.672$) was lower than those of both population ($H_e=0.778$) and species ($H_e=0.759$) level. However, the level of genetic diversity was high compared those of Genus Abies. Genetic differentiation was 0.014 from F-statistics ($F_{ST}$) and was 0.004 from AMOVA analysis (${\Phi}_{ST}$). There was no almost genetic differentiation among sub-populations in Mt. Jiri from bayesian clustering. Therefore, If the seeds are sampled sufficiently by selecting the parameters from three sub-populations, it is possible that we could obtain genetically appropriate materials for ecological restoration.

Report of the 3rd Japan-Korea Workshop on Acupuncture and EBM;Protocol development for the acupuncture trial on the osteoarthritis of the knee

  • Jang, Jun-Hyouk;Kenji, Kawakita;Hahn, Seo-Kyung;Park, Hi-Joon;Lee, Seung-Deok;Kim, Yong-Suk;Norihito, Takahashi;Toshiyuki, Shichidou;Kazunori, Itoh;Eiji, Sumiya;Eiji, Furuya;Hitoshi, Yamashita;Hiroshi, Tsukayama
    • Journal of Acupuncture Research
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.239-254
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    • 2006
  • The 3rd Japan-Korea Workshop on Acupuncture and EBM was held at Kanazawa on June $16^{th}$. From Korea team, 4 papers were presented. Dr. Hahn introduced a new approach of data analysis on series of n-of-1 trials using the Bayesian statistics. It offered important information for the future n-of-1 trials. Dr. Park clearly demonstrated the significance of various sham devices proposed and stressed the importance of research questions when we choose the control intervention in RCT. Dr. Lee reported the results of survey in Korean Medical Doctors (KMD) for their point selection and techniques to the distal and local points. Dr. Kim presented the results of face to face survey on the KMD with 28 items for acupuncture treatment on the knee OA. Finally, a draft of protocol was introduced by Dr. Kim. The title was "multi-center, a randomized, single blinded, two arms, parallel-group study to compare the effectiveness and safety of 'individualized acupuncture' and 'standardized minimal acupuncture' in Korean and Japanese patients with knee osteoarthritis (Phase IV)". From Japan team, 7 speakers presented their comments and proposals on the protocol. Dr. Takahashi introduced several issues regarding n-of-1 trials and pointed out the importance of obtaining generalizability from n-of-1 trials. Dr. Shichidou pointed the importance of research design, selection of outcome measures and reduction of biases. Dr. Itoh presented the results of point selection for the knee OA based on the literature survey. Dr. Sumiya introduced several differences between KMD and Japanese acupuncturists based on the questionnaire used in KMD survey. Dr. Furuya demonstrated a result of press tack needle and its sham device on shoulder stiffness. Dr. Yamashita introduced the results of literature survey regarding adverse events occurred by acupuncture on knee OA. Dr.Tsukayama stressed the importance of responsibility of Institutional Review Board (IRB) for the conduction of clinical trials. After several issues were discussed, the need of continued meeting for final protocol development was agreed, then the workshop was closed.

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Semantic Topic Selection Method of Document for Classification (문서분류를 위한 의미적 주제선정방법)

  • Ko, kwang-Sup;Kim, Pan-Koo;Lee, Chang-Hoon;Hwang, Myung-Gwon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2007
  • The web as global network includes text document, video, sound, etc and connects each distributed information using link Through development of web, it accumulates abundant information and the main is text based documents. Most of user use the web to retrieve information what they want. So, numerous researches have progressed to retrieve the text documents using the many methods, such as probability, statistics, vector similarity, Bayesian, and so on. These researches however, could not consider both the subject and the semantics of documents. As a result user have to find by their hand again. Especially, it is more hard to find the korean document because the researches of korean document classification is insufficient. So, to overcome the previous problems, we propose the korean document classification method for semantic retrieval. This method firstly, extracts TF value and RV value of concepts that is included in document, and maps into U-WIN that is korean vocabulary dictionary to select the topic of document. This method is possible to classify the document semantically and showed the efficiency through experiment.

The Development of Earthenware Kilns in Bongsan-ri Archaeological Site, Osong: Implications for Pre- and Post-1950 AD Absolute Age Determination (AD 1950년 전후 고고유적의 절대연대측정에 대한 고찰: 오송 봉산리 옹기가마 유적을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Myung Jin;Son, Myoung Soo;Kim, Tae Hong;Sung, Ki Seok
    • Journal of Conservation Science
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.481-492
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    • 2018
  • We conducted TL/OSL dating for the earthenware kilns in the Bongsan-ri archaeological site, Osong, which was occupied from the late nineteenth to the late twentieth century. With the SAR-TL/OSL method, paleodose was determined from the equivalent dose during the burial period($ED_{burial}$), the background dose($ED_{BG}$), the fading correction factor(f), and the overestimation correction factor(C). The annual dose rates and their provenance were evaluated from the measurement of natural radionuclides $^{238}U$, $^{232}Th$, and $^{40}K$. Because the comprehensive absolute age was provided by combining the resulting TL/OSL and radiocarbon data, we concluded that, for the absolute chronology of a modern archaeological site, TL/OSL dating and radiocarbon dating must be carried out together and summed. The construction and occupation of earthenware kilns in the Bongsan-ri site had changed from stage I (No.5, 6 kilns), to stage II (No.1, 2, 3 kilns), to stage III (No.4) in chronological order. When Bayesian statistics were applied, we found that the absolute ages of occupation for stages I, II, and III correspond to AD $1910{\pm}23$, AD $1970{\pm}10$, and AD $1987{\pm}4$. These results were in good agreement with the archaeological context or chronology.