• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.143-151
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• 2009

Extreme hydrologic events cause serious disaster, such as flood and drought. Many researchers have an effort to estimate design rainfalls or discharges. This study evaluated parameter estimation methods to estimate probability rainfalls with low uncertainty which will be used in design rainfalls. This study collected rainfall data from Incheon, Gangnueng, Gwangju, Busan, and Chupungryong gage station, and generated synthetic rainfall data using ARMA model. This study employed the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian inference method for estimating parameters of the Gumbel and GEV distribution. Using a bootstrap resampling method, this study estimated the confidence intervals of estimated probability rainfalls. Based on the comparison of the confidence intervals, this study recommended a proper parameter estimation method for estimating probability rainfalls which have a low uncertainty.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.421-439
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• 2022

Phase I dose-finding trials are essential in drug development. By finding the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of a new drug or treatment, a Phase I trial establishes the recommended doses for later-phase testing. The primary toxicity endpoint of interest is often a binary variable, which describes an event of a patient who experiences dose-limiting toxicity. However, there is a growing interest in dose-finding studies regarding non-binary outcomes, defined by either the weighted sum of rates of various toxicity grades or a continuous outcome. Although several novel methods have been proposed in the literature, accessible software is still lacking to implement these methods. This study introduces a newly developed R package, UnifiedDoseFinding, which implements three phase I dose-finding methods with non-binary outcomes (Quasi- and Robust Quasi-CRM designs by Yuan et al. (2007) and Pan et al. (2014), gBOIN design by Mu et al. (2019), and by a method by Ivanova and Kim (2009)). For each of the methods, UnifiedDoseFinding provides corresponding functions that begin with next that determines the dose for the next cohort of patients, select, which selects the MTD defined by the non-binary toxicity endpoint when the trial is completed, and get oc, which obtains the operating characteristics. Three real examples are provided to help practitioners use these methods. The R package UnifiedDoseFinding, which is accessible in R CRAN, provides a user-friendly tool to facilitate the implementation of innovative dose-finding studies with nonbinary outcomes.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.581-594
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• 2011

The traditional method of 3+3 standard design and model-based Bayesian continual reassessment method (CRM) are commonly used in Phase I clinical trials to identify the maximal tolerated dose(MTD) of a new drug. In this paper we review clinical examples of Phase I trials that were carried out in patients with refractory or relapsed leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome. The recently proposed 3+1+1 design and rolling-6 design can shorten the trial duration, when a very slow accrual of patients with a simple 3+3 standard design may result in the untimely termination of trials. Too conservative approaches in determining the dose levels in Phase I clinical trials can leave clinical investigators unable to accurately determine the MTD. When determining future patient doses, the designs that use a time-to-event CRM can cooperate late toxicities by accounting for the proportion of the observation period of each enrolled patient. With the CRM design, simulations under different scenarios during the trial are important in detecting the under- or over-estimation of the initial estimate of the dose-limiting toxicity rate for each dose level. We present the advantages and drawbacks of the designs used in Phase I clinical trials for leukemia patients.

• Composites Research
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.53-58
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• 2023

The PIC design method is assigning different stacking sequences for each shell element through the preliminary FE analysis. In previous study, machine learning was applied to the PIC design method in order to assign the region efficiently, and the training data is labeled by dividing each region into tension, compression, and shear through the preliminary FE analysis results value. However, since buckling is not considered, when buckling occurs, it can't be divided into appropriate loading type. In the present study, it was proposed PIC-NTL (PIC design using novel technique for analyzing load type) which is method for applying a novel technique for analyzing load type considering buckling to the conventional PIC design. The stress triaxiality for each ply were analyzed for buckling analysis, and the representative loading type was designated through the determined loading type within decision area divided into two regions of the same size in the thickness direction of the elements. The input value of the training data and label consisted in coordination of element and representative loading type of each decision area, respectively. A machine learning model was trained through the training data, and the hyperparameters that affect the performance of the machine learning model were tuned to optimal values through Bayesian algorithm. Among the tuned machine learning models, the SVM model showed the highest performance. Most effective stacking sequence were mapped into PIC tube based on trained SVM model. FE analysis results show the design method proposed in this study has superior external loading resistance and energy absorption compared to previous study.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.10 no.12
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• pp.2283-2288
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• 2006

As development in technology of bioinformatics recently makes it possible to operate micro-level experiments, we can observe the expression pattern of total genome through on chip and analyze the interactions of thousands of genes at the same time. Thus, DNA microarray technology presents the new directions of understandings for complex organisms. Therefore, it is required how to analyze the enormous gene information obtained through this technology effectively. In this thesis, We used sample data of bioinformatics core group in harvard university. It designed and implemented system that evaluate accuracy after dividing in class of two using Bayesian algorithm, ASA, of feature extraction method through normalization process, reducing or removing of noise that occupy by various factor in microarray experiment. It was represented accuracy of 98.23% after Lowess normalization.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.167-179
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• 2017

In this paper, a simplified Cubature Kalman Filter (SCKF) is proposed to reduce the computation load of CKF, which is then used as a filter for transfer alignment of shipboard INS. CKF is an approximate Bayesian filter that can be applied to non-linear systems. When an initial estimation error is large, convergence characteristic of the CKF is more stable than that of the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), and the reliability of the filter operation is more ensured than that of the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). However, when a system degree is large, the computation amount of CKF is also increased significantly, becoming a burden on real-time implementation in embedded systems. A simplified CKF is proposed to address this problem. This filter is applied to shipboard inertial navigation system (INS) transfer alignment. In the filter design for transfer alignment, measurement type and measurement update rate should be determined first, and if an application target is a ship, lever-arm problem, flexure of the hull, and asynchronous time problem between Master Inertial Navigation System (MINS) and Slave Inertial Navigation System (SINS) should be taken into consideration. In this paper, a transfer alignment filter based on SCKF is designed by considering these problems, and its performance is validated based on simulations.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.130-135
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• 2004

This paper presents a new design methods of the short-term load forecasting system (STLFS) using the data mining. The structure of the proposed STLFS is divided into two parts: the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model-based classifier and predictor The proposed classifier is composed of the Gaussian fuzzy sets in the premise part and the linearized Bayesian classifier in the consequent part. The related parameters of the classifier are easily obtained from the statistic information of the training set. The proposed predictor takes form of the convex combination of the linear time series predictors for each inputs. The problem of estimating the consequent parameters is formulated by the convex optimization problem, which is to minimize the norm distance between the real load and the output of the linear time series estimator. The problem of estimating the premise parameters is to find the parameter value minimizing the error between the real load and the overall output. Finally, to show the feasibility of the proposed method, this paper provides the short-term load forecasting example.

• Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.279-287
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• 2001

In this paper, we have defined and designed the structure of standardized XML content for supplying efficient e-Learning contents. We have also implemented the prototype of XML contents generator to create the educational contents easily. In addition, we have suggested the contents searching method using Case Base Reasoning and Bayesian belief network to supply XML contents suitable to learners request. The existing e-Learning system based on HTML could not customize and standardize, but XML contents can be reused and made an intelligent learning by supplying an adaptive content according to learners level. For evaluating the efficiency of designed XML content, we make the standard XML content for learning JAVA program in e-Learning system as well as discussing about the integrity and expanding the educational content. Finally, we have shown the architecture and effectiveness of the knowledge-based XML contents retrieval manager.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.10B no.7
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• pp.853-862
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• 2003

Many more use e-mail purely on a personal basis and the pool of e-mail users is growing daily. Also, the amount of mails, which are transmitted in electronic commerce, is getting more and more. Because of its convenience, a mass of spam mails is flooding everyday. And yet automated techniques for learning to filter e-mail have yet to significantly affect the e-mail market. This paper suggests Web Mail Filtering Agent for Personalized Classification, which automatically manages mails adjusting to the user. It is based on web mail, which can be logged in any time, any place and has no limitation in any system. In case new mails are received, it first makes some personal rules in use of the result of observation ; and based on the personal rules, it automatically classifies the mails into categories according to the contents of mails and saves the classified mails in the relevant folders or deletes the unnecessary mails and spam mails. And, we applied Bayesian Algorithm using Dynamic Threshold for our system's accuracy.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.114-122
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• 2014

Currently, global warming has become a serious problem arising from the usage of fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum. Moreover, due to the global warming, heat wave, heavy snow, heavy rain, super typhoon are frequently occurring all over the world. Due to these serious natural disasters, concrete structures and infrastructures are seriously damaged or collapsed. In order to handle these problems, climate change oriented construction technology and codes are necessary at this time. Therefore, in this study, the validity of the present concrete mixture proportions are evaluated considering temperature and humidity change. The specimens cured at various temperature and humidity conditions were tested to obtain their compressive and split tensile strengths at various curing ages. Moreover, performance based evaluation (PBE) method was used to analyze the satisfaction percentage of the concrete cured at various condition. From the probabilistic method of performance evaluation of concrete performance, feasibility and usability can be determined for future concrete mix design.