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Reliability Evaluation of Parameter Estimation Methods of Probability Density Function for Estimating Probability Rainfalls  

Han, Jeong-Woo (한양대학교 대학원 토목공학과)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (전북대학교 토목공학과)
Kim, Tae-Woong (한양대학교 건설환경시스템공학)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation / v.9, no.6, 2009 , pp. 143-151 More about this Journal
Abstract
Extreme hydrologic events cause serious disaster, such as flood and drought. Many researchers have an effort to estimate design rainfalls or discharges. This study evaluated parameter estimation methods to estimate probability rainfalls with low uncertainty which will be used in design rainfalls. This study collected rainfall data from Incheon, Gangnueng, Gwangju, Busan, and Chupungryong gage station, and generated synthetic rainfall data using ARMA model. This study employed the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian inference method for estimating parameters of the Gumbel and GEV distribution. Using a bootstrap resampling method, this study estimated the confidence intervals of estimated probability rainfalls. Based on the comparison of the confidence intervals, this study recommended a proper parameter estimation method for estimating probability rainfalls which have a low uncertainty.
Keywords
probability rainfall; uncertainty; parameter estimation;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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