• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.555-567
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• 2020

Hypertension has a steadily increasing incidence rate as well as represents a risk factors for secondary diseases such as cardiovascular disease. Therefore, it is important to predict the incidence rate of the disease. In this study, we constructed nomograms that can predict the incidence rate of hypertension. We use data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) for 2013-2016. The complex sampling data required the use of a Rao-Scott chi-squared test to identify 10 risk factors for hypertension. Smoking and exercise variables were not statistically significant in the Logistic regression; therefore, eight effects were selected as risk factors for hypertension. Logistic and Bayesian nomograms constructed from the selected risk factors were proposed and compared. The constructed nomograms were then verified using a receiver operating characteristics curve and calibration plot.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.1021-1030
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• 2023

We propose an overall procedure for measuring and unfolding fast neutron spectra using a trans-stilbene scintillation detector. Detector characterization was described, including the information on energy calibration, detector resolution, and nonproportionality response. The digital charge comparison method was used for the investigation of neutron-gamma Pulse Shape Discrimination (PSD). A pair of values of 600 ns pulse width and 24 ns delay time was found as the optimized conditions for PSD. A fitting technique was introduced to increase the trans-stilbene Proton Response Function (PRF) by 28% based on comparison of the simulated and experimental electron-equivalent distributions by the Cf-252 source. The detector response matrix was constructed by Monte-Carlo simulation and the spectrum unfolding was implemented using the iterative Bayesian method. The unfolding of simulated and measured spectra of Cf-252 and AmBe neutron sources indicates reliable, stable and no-bias results. The unfolding technique was also validated by the measured cosmic-ray induced neutron flux. Our approach is promising for fast neutron detection and spectroscopy.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.85.1-85.1
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• 2019

Accurate estimation of the masses, the ages, and the chemical abundances of host stars is crucial to understand physical characteristics of exo-planetary systems. In this study, we investigate physical dimensions of 94 planet-hosting stars based on spectroscopic observation and stellar evolutionary computation, From the high resolution echelle spectroscopy of the BOES observation, we have analysed metallicities and alpha-element enhancements of host stars. By combining recent spectro-photometric observations, stellar parameters are calibrated within the frame work of the standard stellar theory. In general, the minimum chi-square estimation can be strongly biased in cases that stellar properties rapidly changes after the terminal age main-sequence. Instead, we adopt a Bayesian statistics considering a priori distribution of stellar parameters during the rapid evolutionary phases. we determine a reliable set of stellar parameters between theoretical model grids. To overcome this statistical bias, (1) we adopt a Bayesian statistics considering a priori distribution of stellar parameters during the rapid evolutionary phases and (2) we construct the fine model grid that covers mass range ($0.2{\sim}3.0M_{\odot}$) with the mass step ${\Delta}M=0.01M_{\odot}$, metallicities Z = 0.0001 ~ 0.04, and the helium and the alpha-element enhancement. In this presentation, we introduce our calibration scheme for several hosting stars.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2010.03a
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• pp.324-337
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• 2010

For the development of load and resistance factor design, reliability analysis is required to calibrate resistance factors in the framework of reliability theory. The distribution of measured-to-predicted pile resistance ratio was constructed based on only the results of load tests conducted to failure for the assessment of uncertainty regarding pile resistance and used in the conventional reliability analysis. In other words, successful pile load test (piles resisted twice their design loads without failure) results were discarded, and therefore, were not reflected in the reliability analysis. In this paper, a new systematic method based on Bayesian theory is used to update reliability index of driven steel pile piles by adding more pile load test results, even not conducted to failure, into the prior distribution of pile resistance ratio. Fifty seven static pile load tests performed to failure in Korea were compiled for the construction of prior distribution of pile resistance ratio. Reliability analyses were performed using the updated distribution of pile resistance ratio and the total load distribution using First-order Reliability Method (FORM). The challenge of this study is that the distribution updates of pile resistance ratio are possible using the load test results even not conducted to failure, and that Bayesian update are most effective when limited data are available for reliability analysis or resistance factors calibration.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.275-275
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• 2021

A fixed Z-R relationship approach, such as the Marshall-Palmer relationship, for an entire year and for different seasons can be problematic in cases where the relationship varies spatially and temporally throughout a region. From this perspective, this study explores the use of long-term radar reflectivity for South Korea to obtain a nationwide calibrated Z-R relationship and the associated uncertainties within a Bayesian regression framework. This study also investigates seasonal differences in the Z-R relationship and their roles in reducing systematic error. Distinct differences in the Z-R parameters in space are identified, and more importantly, an inverse relationship between the parameters is clearly identified with distinct regimes based on the seasons. A spatially structured pattern in the parameters exists, particularly parameter α for the wet season and parameter β for the dry season. A pronounced region of high values during the wet and dry seasons may be partially associated with storm movements in that season. Finally, the radar rainfall estimates through the calibrated Z-R relationship are compared with the existing Z-R relationships for estimating stratiform rainfall and convective rainfall. Overall, the radar rainfall fields based on the proposed modeling procedure are similar to the observed rainfall fields, whereas the radar rainfall fields obtained from the existing Marshall-Palmer Z-R relationship show a systematic underestimation. The obtained Z-R relationships are validated by testing the predictions on unseen radar-gauge pairs in the year 2018, in the context of cross-validation. The cross-validation results are largely similar to those in the calibration process, suggesting that the derived Z-R relationships fit the radar-gauge pairs reasonably well.

• Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2018

Mankyua chejuense is the only member of the monotypic genus Mankyua (Ophioglossaceae) and is endemic to Jejudo Island, Korea. To determine the precise phylogenetic position of M. chejuense, two cpDNA regions of 42 accessions representing major members of lycophytes are obtained from GenBank and analyzed using three phylogenetic analyses (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference). In addition, the divergence time is estimated based on a relaxed molecular clock using four fossil calibration points. The phylogenetic position of Mankyua still appears to be uncertain, representing either the earliest diverged lineage within Ophioglossaceae or a sister to the clade containing Ophioglossum and Helminthostachys. The most recent common ancestor of Ophioglossaceae and its sister lineage, Psilotum, was estimated to be 256 Ma, while the earliest divergence of Mankyua was estimated to be 195 Ma in the early Jurassic.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.45-57
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• 2003

An artificial neural network model was developed to analyze and forecast Short-term river runoff from the Naju watershed, in Korea. Error back propagation neural networks (EBPN) of hourly rainfall and runoff data were found to have a high performance In forecasting runoff. The number of hidden nodes were optimized using total error and Bayesian information criterion. Model forecasts are very accurate (i.e., relative error is less than 3% and $R^2$is greater than 0.99) for calibration and verification data sets. Increasing the time horizon for application data sets, thus mating the model suitable for flood forecasting. decreases the accuracy of the model. The resulting optimal EBPN models for forecasting hourly runoff consists of ten rainfall and four runoff data(ANN0410 model) and ten rainfall and ten runoff data(ANN1010 model). Performances of the ANN0410 and ANN1010 models remain satisfactory up to 6 hours (i.e., $R^2$is greater than 0.92).

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.37 no.9
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• pp.1133-1140
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• 2013

A computer model is a useful tool that provides solution via physical modeling instead of expensive testing. In reality, however, it often does not agree with the experimental data owing to simplifying assumption and unknown or uncertain input parameters. In this study, a Bayesian approach is proposed to calibrate the computer model in a probabilistic manner using the measured data. The elasto-plastic analysis of a pyrotechnically actuated device (PAD) is employed to demonstrate this approach, which is a component that delivers high power in remote environments by the combustion of a self-contained energy source. A simple mathematical model that quickly evaluates the performance is developed. Unknown input parameters are calibrated conditional on the experimental data using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which is a modern computational statistics method. Finally, the results are applied to determine the reliability of the PAD.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.7
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• pp.489-502
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• 2017

The objective of this study is to propose and evaluate the BAYES-ESP, which is a dam inflow prediction method based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP) and Bayesian theory. ABCD rainfall-runoff model was used to predict monthly dam inflow. Monthly meteorological data collected from KMA, MOLIT and K-water and dam inflow data collected from K-water were used for the model calibration and verification. To estimate the performance of ABCD model, ESP and BAYES-ESP method, time series analysis and skill score (SS) during 1986~2015 were used. In time series analysis monthly ESP dam inflow prediction values were nearly similar for every years, particularly less accurate in wet and dry years. The proposed BAYES-ESP improved the performance of ESP, especially in wet year. The SS was used for quantitative analysis of monthly mean of observed dam inflows, predicted values from ESP and BAYES-ESP. The results indicated that the SS values of ESP were relatively high in January, February and March but negative values in the other months. It also showed that the BAYES-ESP improved ESP when the values from ESP and observation have a relatively apparent linear relationship. We concluded that the existing ESP method has a limitation to predict dam inflow in Korea due to the seasonality of precipitation pattern and the proposed BAYES-ESP is meaningful for improving dam inflow prediction accuracy of ESP.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.6C
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• pp.259-266
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• 2011

Conducting statistical analysis of foundation resistance using sufficient number of well-performed load test results is prerequisite for the calibration of reliable resistance factors for foundation LRFD. In this study, a rational analysis method is proposed so that the proof pile load test results can be reflected in update of resistance statistical characteristics based on Bayesian theory. Then, resistance factors for driven steel pipe piles compatible with Korea foundation practices are updated by implementing this rational analysis method. To accomplish the resistance factor updates, (1) prior pile resistance distribution is constructed based on the results of pile load tests, which loads are imposed at least up to their ultimate limit loads. (2) likelihood function is obtained from the results of proof pile load tests, and (3) posterior pile resistance distribution is updated by combining these prior pile resistance distribution and likelihood function. The resistance factors are updated using the posterior pile resistance following the first-order reliability method (FORM). From the possible results of five consecutive proof pile load tests, the updated resistance factors vary within ranges of 0.27-0.96 and 0.19-0.68 for target reliability indices of 2.33 and 3.0, respectively. Consequently, it was found that the Bayesian theory-implemented method enables the updates of resistance factors in an efficient way when reliable resistance factors are not available due to the lack of well-performed pile load test results.