• 제목/요약/키워드: Bayesian

검색결과 2,727건 처리시간 0.031초

다양한 지표모형을 활용한 토양수분 예측 성능 평가 연구 (A Study on Soil Moisture Estimates Performance Using Various Land Surface Models)

  • 장예근;신승훈;이태화;장원석;신용철;장근창;천정화;김종건
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제64권1호
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    • pp.79-89
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    • 2022
  • Soil moisture is significantly related to crop growth and plays an important role in irrigation management. To predict soil moisture, various process-based model has been developed and used in the world. Various models (Land surface model) may have different performance depending on the model parameters and structures that causes the different model output for the same modeling condition. In this study, the three land surface models (Noah Land Surface Model, Soil Water Atmosphere Plant, Community Land Model) were used to compare the model performance (soil moisture prediction) and develop the multi-model simulation. At first, the genetic algorithm was used to estimate the optimal soil parameters for each model, and the parameters were used to predict soil moisture in the study area. Then, we used the multi-model approach based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The results derived from this approach showed a better match to the measurements than the results from the original single land surface model. In addition, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the single model and utilizing multi-model methods can help to increase the accuracy of soil moisture prediction.

도심자율주행을 위한 라이다 정지 장애물 지도 기반 차량 동적 상태 추정 알고리즘 (LiDAR Static Obstacle Map based Vehicle Dynamic State Estimation Algorithm for Urban Autonomous Driving)

  • 김종호;이호준;이경수
    • 자동차안전학회지
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.14-19
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    • 2021
  • This paper presents LiDAR static obstacle map based vehicle dynamic state estimation algorithm for urban autonomous driving. In an autonomous driving, state estimation of host vehicle is important for accurate prediction of ego motion and perceived object. Therefore, in a situation in which noise exists in the control input of the vehicle, state estimation using sensor such as LiDAR and vision is required. However, it is difficult to obtain a measurement for the vehicle state because the recognition sensor of autonomous vehicle perceives including a dynamic object. The proposed algorithm consists of two parts. First, a Bayesian rule-based static obstacle map is constructed using continuous LiDAR point cloud input. Second, vehicle odometry during the time interval is calculated by matching the static obstacle map using Normal Distribution Transformation (NDT) method. And the velocity and yaw rate of vehicle are estimated based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) using vehicle odometry as measurement. The proposed algorithm is implemented in the Linux Robot Operating System (ROS) environment, and is verified with data obtained from actual driving on urban roads. The test results show a more robust and accurate dynamic state estimation result when there is a bias in the chassis IMU sensor.

재료 물성치의 공간적 임의성에 대한 역추정 방법 및 지반구조 형상의 위상 최적화 적용 (Inverse Estimation Method for Spatial Randomness of Material Properties and Its Application to Topology Optimization on Shape of Geotechnical Structures)

  • 김대영;송명관
    • 한국지반신소재학회논문집
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2022
  • 본 논문에서는 지반 구조물의 재료 물성치에 대한 추계장 세트를 이용하여 재료 물성치의 공간적 임의성 및 확률 특성을 역추정한다. 이러한 추정된 재료 물성치의 확률분포 및 확률특성을 이용하여 구조 형상에 대한 위상 최적화를 수행하고, 기존의 결정론적 위상 최적화 결과와 비교한다. 재료 물성치에 대한 한 세트의 추계장들을 생성하고, 각 추계장에서 재료 물성치의 공간적 임의성을 모사한다. 각 추계장에서 재료 물성치의 부분값들을 이용하여 실제 재료 물성치의 확률분포와 확률 특성을 추정한다. 추정된 실제 재료 물성치의 확률특성을 추계장 세트의 확률 특성과 비교한다. 또한, 임의성을 가진 재료탄성계수를 가지는 지반구조물의 최적화 응답변화도와 임의성이 없는 재료탄성계수를 가지는 지반구조의 응답변화도를 비교한다. 따라서, 실제 재료 물성치의 공간적 임의성을 고려한 정량화된 확률론적 위상 최적화 결과를 얻을 수 있다.

An R package UnifiedDoseFinding for continuous and ordinal outcomes in Phase I dose-finding trials

  • Pan, Haitao;Mu, Rongji;Hsu, Chia-Wei;Zhou, Shouhao
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.421-439
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    • 2022
  • Phase I dose-finding trials are essential in drug development. By finding the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of a new drug or treatment, a Phase I trial establishes the recommended doses for later-phase testing. The primary toxicity endpoint of interest is often a binary variable, which describes an event of a patient who experiences dose-limiting toxicity. However, there is a growing interest in dose-finding studies regarding non-binary outcomes, defined by either the weighted sum of rates of various toxicity grades or a continuous outcome. Although several novel methods have been proposed in the literature, accessible software is still lacking to implement these methods. This study introduces a newly developed R package, UnifiedDoseFinding, which implements three phase I dose-finding methods with non-binary outcomes (Quasi- and Robust Quasi-CRM designs by Yuan et al. (2007) and Pan et al. (2014), gBOIN design by Mu et al. (2019), and by a method by Ivanova and Kim (2009)). For each of the methods, UnifiedDoseFinding provides corresponding functions that begin with next that determines the dose for the next cohort of patients, select, which selects the MTD defined by the non-binary toxicity endpoint when the trial is completed, and get oc, which obtains the operating characteristics. Three real examples are provided to help practitioners use these methods. The R package UnifiedDoseFinding, which is accessible in R CRAN, provides a user-friendly tool to facilitate the implementation of innovative dose-finding studies with nonbinary outcomes.

자원복원력 개념을 적용한 사전확률분포 및 상태공간 잉여생산 평가모델: 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 개체군 자원평가 (A State-space Production Assessment Model with a Joint Prior Based on Population Resilience: Illustration with the Common Squid Todarodes pacificus Stock)

  • 김진우;현상윤;윤상철
    • 한국수산과학회지
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    • 제55권2호
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    • pp.183-188
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    • 2022
  • It is a difficult task to estimate parameters in even a simple stock assessment model such as a surplus production model, using only data about temporal catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) (or survey index) and fishery yields. Such difficulty is exacerbated when time-varying parameters are treated as random effects (aka state variables). To overcome the difficulty, previous studies incorporated somewhat subjective assumptions (e.g., B1=K) or informative priors of parameters. A key is how to build an objective joint prior of parameters, reducing subjectivity. Given the limited data on temporal CPUEs and fishery yields from 1999-2020 for common squid Todarodes pacificus, we built a joint prior of only two parameters, intrinsic growth rate (r) and carrying capacity (K), based on the resilience level of the population (Froese et al., 2017), and used a Bayesian state-space production assessment model. We used template model builder (TMB), a R package for implementing the assessment model, and estimating all parameters in the model. The predicted annual biomass was in the range of 0.76×106 to 4.06×106 MT, the estimated MSY was 0.13×106 MT, the estimated r was 0.24, and the estimated K was 2.10×106 MT.

A novel radioactive particle tracking algorithm based on deep rectifier neural network

  • Dam, Roos Sophia de Freitas;dos Santos, Marcelo Carvalho;do Desterro, Filipe Santana Moreira;Salgado, William Luna;Schirru, Roberto;Salgado, Cesar Marques
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제53권7호
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    • pp.2334-2340
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    • 2021
  • Radioactive particle tracking (RPT) is a minimally invasive nuclear technique that tracks a radioactive particle inside a volume of interest by means of a mathematical location algorithm. During the past decades, many algorithms have been developed including ones based on artificial intelligence techniques. In this study, RPT technique is applied in a simulated test section that employs a simplified mixer filled with concrete, six scintillator detectors and a137Cs radioactive particle emitting gamma rays of 662 keV. The test section was developed using MCNPX code, which is a mathematical code based on Monte Carlo simulation, and 3516 different radioactive particle positions (x,y,z) were simulated. Novelty of this paper is the use of a location algorithm based on a deep learning model, more specifically a 6-layers deep rectifier neural network (DRNN), in which hyperparameters were defined using a Bayesian optimization method. DRNN is a type of deep feedforward neural network that substitutes the usual sigmoid based activation functions, traditionally used in vanilla Multilayer Perceptron Networks, for rectified activation functions. Results show the great accuracy of the DRNN in a RPT tracking system. Root mean squared error for x, y and coordinates of the radioactive particle is, respectively, 0.03064, 0.02523 and 0.07653.

New genotype classification and molecular characterization of canine and feline parvoviruses

  • Chung, Hee-Chun;Kim, Sung-Jae;Nguyen, Van Giap;Shin, Sook;Kim, Jae Young;Lim, Suk-Kyung;Park, Yong Ho;Park, BongKyun
    • Journal of Veterinary Science
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.43.1-43.13
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    • 2020
  • Background: Canine parvovirus (CPV) and feline panleukopenia (FPV) cause severe intestinal disease and leukopenia. Objectives: In Korea, there have been a few studies on Korean FPV and CPV-2 strains. We attempted to investigate several genetic properties of FPV and CPV-2. Methods: Several FPV and CPV sequences from around world were analyzed by Bayesian phylo-geographical analysis. Results: The parvoviruses strains were newly classified into FPV, CPV 2-I, CPV 2-II, and CPV 2-III genotypes. In the strains isolated in this study, Gigucheon, Rara and Jun belong to the FPV, while Rachi strain belong to CPV 2-III. With respect to CPV type 2, the new genotypes are inconsistent with the previous genotype classifications (CPV-2a, -2b, and -2c). The root of CPV-I strains were inferred to be originated from a USA strain, while the CPV-II and III were derived from Italy strains that originated in the USA. Based on VP2 protein analysis, CPV 2-I included CPV-2a-like isolates only, as differentiated by the change in residue S297A/N. Almost CPV-2a isolates were classified into CPV 2-III, and a large portion of CPV-2c isolates was classified into CPV 2-II. Two residue substitutions F267Y and Y324I of the VP2 protein were characterized in the isolates of CPV 2-III only. Conclusions: We provided an updated insight on FPV and CPV-2 genotypes by molecular-based and our findings demonstrate the genetic characterization according to the new genotypes.

Clinical effectiveness of different types of bone-anchored maxillary protraction devices for skeletal Class III malocclusion: Systematic review and network meta-analysis

  • Wang, Jiangwei;Yang, Yingying;Wang, Yingxue;Zhang, Lu;Ji, Wei;Hong, Zheng;Zhang, Linkun
    • 대한치과교정학회지
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    • 제52권5호
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    • pp.313-323
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    • 2022
  • Objective: This study aimed to estimate the clinical effects of different types of bone-anchored maxillary protraction devices by using a network meta-analysis. Methods: We searched seven databases for randomized and controlled clinical trials that compared bone-anchored maxillary protraction with tooth-anchored maxillary protraction interventions or untreated groups up to May 2021. After literature selection, data extraction, and quality assessment, we calculated the mean differences, 95% confidence intervals, and surface under the cumulative ranking scores of eleven indicators. Statistical analysis was performed using R statistical software with the GeMTC package based on the Bayesian framework. Results: Six interventions and 667 patients were involved in 18 studies. In comparison with the tooth-anchored groups, the bone-anchored groups showed significantly more increases in Sella-Nasion-Subspinale (°), Subspinale-Nasion-Supramentale(°) and significantly fewer increases in mandibular plane angle and the labial proclination angle of upper incisors. In comparison with the control group, Sella-Nasion-Supramentale(°) decreased without any statistical significance in all treated groups. IMPA (angle of lower incisors and mandibular plane) decreased in groups with facemasks and increased in other groups. Conclusions: Bone-anchored maxillary protraction can promote greater maxillary forward movement and correct the Class III intermaxillary relationship better, in addition to showing less clockwise rotation of mandible and labial proclination of upper incisors. However, strengthening anchorage could not inhibit mandibular growth better and the lingual inclination of lower incisors caused by the treatment is related to the use of a facemask.

도심 자율주행을 위한 라이다 정지 장애물 지도 기반 위치 보정 알고리즘 (LiDAR Static Obstacle Map based Position Correction Algorithm for Urban Autonomous Driving)

  • 노한석;이현성;이경수
    • 자동차안전학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.39-44
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    • 2022
  • This paper presents LiDAR static obstacle map based vehicle position correction algorithm for urban autonomous driving. Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS is commonly used in highway automated vehicle systems. For urban automated vehicle systems, RTK GPS have some trouble in shaded area. Therefore, this paper represents a method to estimate the position of the host vehicle using AVM camera, front camera, LiDAR and low-cost GPS based on Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Static obstacle map (STOM) is constructed only with static object based on Bayesian rule. To run the algorithm, HD map and Static obstacle reference map (STORM) must be prepared in advance. STORM is constructed by accumulating and voxelizing the static obstacle map (STOM). The algorithm consists of three main process. The first process is to acquire sensor data from low-cost GPS, AVM camera, front camera, and LiDAR. Second, low-cost GPS data is used to define initial point. Third, AVM camera, front camera, LiDAR point cloud matching to HD map and STORM is conducted using Normal Distribution Transformation (NDT) method. Third, position of the host vehicle position is corrected based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF).The proposed algorithm is implemented in the Linux Robot Operating System (ROS) environment and showed better performance than only lane-detection algorithm. It is expected to be more robust and accurate than raw lidar point cloud matching algorithm in autonomous driving.

Target-free vision-based approach for vibration measurement and damage identification of truss bridges

  • Dong Tan;Zhenghao Ding;Jun Li;Hong Hao
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.421-436
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    • 2023
  • This paper presents a vibration displacement measurement and damage identification method for a space truss structure from its vibration videos. Features from Accelerated Segment Test (FAST) algorithm is combined with adaptive threshold strategy to detect the feature points of high quality within the Region of Interest (ROI), around each node of the truss structure. Then these points are tracked by Kanade-Lucas-Tomasi (KLT) algorithm along the video frame sequences to obtain the vibration displacement time histories. For some cases with the image plane not parallel to the truss structural plane, the scale factors cannot be applied directly. Therefore, these videos are processed with homography transformation. After scale factor adaptation, tracking results are expressed in physical units and compared with ground truth data. The main operational frequencies and the corresponding mode shapes are identified by using Subspace Stochastic Identification (SSI) from the obtained vibration displacement responses and compared with ground truth data. Structural damages are quantified by elemental stiffness reductions. A Bayesian inference-based objective function is constructed based on natural frequencies to identify the damage by model updating. The Success-History based Adaptive Differential Evolution with Linear Population Size Reduction (L-SHADE) is applied to minimise the objective function by tuning the damage parameter of each element. The locations and severities of damage in each case are then identified. The accuracy and effectiveness are verified by comparison of the identified results with the ground truth data.