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http://dx.doi.org/10.5657/KFAS.2022.0183

A State-space Production Assessment Model with a Joint Prior Based on Population Resilience: Illustration with the Common Squid Todarodes pacificus Stock  

Gim, Jinwoo (College of Fisheries Sciences, Pukyong National University)
Hyun, Saang-Yoon (College of Fisheries Sciences, Pukyong National University)
Yoon, Sang Chul (Coastal Water Fisheries Resources Research Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences / v.55, no.2, 2022 , pp. 183-188 More about this Journal
Abstract
It is a difficult task to estimate parameters in even a simple stock assessment model such as a surplus production model, using only data about temporal catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) (or survey index) and fishery yields. Such difficulty is exacerbated when time-varying parameters are treated as random effects (aka state variables). To overcome the difficulty, previous studies incorporated somewhat subjective assumptions (e.g., B1=K) or informative priors of parameters. A key is how to build an objective joint prior of parameters, reducing subjectivity. Given the limited data on temporal CPUEs and fishery yields from 1999-2020 for common squid Todarodes pacificus, we built a joint prior of only two parameters, intrinsic growth rate (r) and carrying capacity (K), based on the resilience level of the population (Froese et al., 2017), and used a Bayesian state-space production assessment model. We used template model builder (TMB), a R package for implementing the assessment model, and estimating all parameters in the model. The predicted annual biomass was in the range of 0.76×106 to 4.06×106 MT, the estimated MSY was 0.13×106 MT, the estimated r was 0.24, and the estimated K was 2.10×106 MT.
Keywords
Common squid; Resilience; State-space; Surplus production model; TMB;
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