• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.62 no.3
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• pp.215-220
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• 2023

A recent discovery of drywood termites (Cryptotermes domesticus) in a residential facility in Seoul has raised significant concern. This exotic insect species, which can damage timber and wooden buildings, necessitates an immediate investigation of potential infestation. In this study, we assessed the climatic suitability for this termite species using a species distribution modeling approach. Global distribution data and bioclimatic variables were compiled from published sources, and predictive models for climatic suitability were developed using four modeling algorithms. An ensemble prediction was made based on the mean occurrence probability derived from the individual models. The final model suggested that this species could potentially establish itself in tropical coastal regions. While the climatic suitability in South Korea was generally found to be low, a careful investigation is still warranted due to the potential risk of colonization and establishment of this species.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.282-289
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• 2022

Analyzing the impact of climate change on the Korean Peninsula on the forest ecosystem is important for the management of subtropical forest bioresources. In this study, we collected location data and bioclimatic variables of the warm-temperate woody plant species, Myrica rubra and Cyzygium buxifolium, and applied the MaxEnt model based on the collected data to estimate the potential distribution area. Precipitation and temperature seasonality in the warmest quarter were the main environmental factors that determined the distribution of M. rubra, and the main environmental factors for S. buxifolium were precipitation in the warmest quarter and precipitation in the wettest quarter. The results of the MaxEnt model by administrative district, the M. rubra showed an area increase rate of 4.6 - 17.7% in the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 13.8 - 30.5% in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. S. buxifolium showed area increase rates of 4.8 - 32.2% in the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 12.9 - 48.6% in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. This study is meaningful in establishing a database and identifying future potential distribution areas of warm and subtropical plants by applying climate change scenarios.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.96-109
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• 2024

Background: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government initiated the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project including regeneration and afforestation approaches. An effort was made to assess the distribution characteristics of afforested species under present and future climatic scenarios using ecological niche modelling. For sustainable forest management, landscape ecology can play a significant role. A significant change in the potential distribution of tree species is expected globally with changing climate. Ecological niche modeling provides the valuable information about the current and future distribution of species that can play crucial role in deciding the potential sites for afforestation which can be used by government institutes for afforestation programs. In this context, the potential distribution of 8 tree species, Cedrus deodara, Dalbergia sissoo, Juglans regia, Pinus wallichiana, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Senegalia modesta, Populus ciliata, and Vachellia nilotica was modeled. Results: Maxent species distribution model was used to predict current and future distribution of tree species using bioclimatic variables along with soil type and elevation. Future climate scenarios, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were considered for the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. The model predicted high risk of decreasing potential distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios for years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, respectively. Recent afforestation conservation sites of these 8 tree species do not fall within their predicted potential habitat for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. Conclusions: Each tree species responded independently in terms of its potential habitat to future climatic conditions. Cedrus deodara and P. ciliata are predicted to migrate to higher altitude towards north in present and future climate scenarios. Habitat of D. sissoo, P. wallichiana, J. regia, and V. nilotica is practiced to be declined in future climate scenarios. Eucalyptus camaldulensis is expected to be expanded its suitability area in future with eastward shift. Senegalia modesta habitat increased in the middle of the century but decreased afterwards in later half of the century. The changing and shifting forests create challenges for sustainable landscapes. Therefore, the study is an attempt to provide management tools for monitoring the climate change-driven shifting of forest landscapes.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.589-600
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• 2020

Effective conservation and management of protected areas require monitoring the settlement of invasive alien species and reducing their dispersion capacity. We simulated the potential distribution of invasive alien plant species (IAPS) using three representative species distribution models (Bioclim, GLM, and MaxEnt) based on the IAPS distribution in the forest genetic resource reserve (2,274ha) in Uljin-gun, Korea. We then selected the realistic and suitable species distribution model that reflects the local region and ecological management characteristics based on the simulation results. The simulation predicted the tendency of the IAPS distributed along the linear landscape elements, such as roads, and including some forest harvested area. The statistical comparison of the prediction and accuracy of each model tested in this study showed that the GLM and MaxEnt models generally had high performance and accuracy compared to the Bioclim model. The Bioclim model calculated the largest potential distribution area, followed by GLM and MaxEnt in that order. The Phenomenological review of the simulation results showed that the sample size more significantly affected the GLM and Bioclim models, while the MaxEnt model was the most consistent regardless of the sample size. The optimal model overall for predicting the distribution of IAPS among the three models was the MaxEnt model. The model selection approach based on detailed flora distribution data presented in this study is expected to be useful for efficiently managing the conservation areas and identifying the realistic and precise species distribution model reflecting local characteristics.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.163-173
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• 2022

Climate change is a key factor that greatly influences changes in the biological seasons and geographical distribution of species. In the ecological field, the BioClimatic predictor (BioClim), which is most related to the physiological characteristics of organisms, is used for vulnerability assessment. However, BioClim values are not provided other than the future period climate average values for each GCM for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenario. In this study, BioClim data suitable for domestic conditions was produced using 1 km resolution SSPs scenario detailed data produced by Rural Development Administration, and based on the data, a species distribution model was applied to mainly grow in southern, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Gangwon-do and humid regions. Appropriate habitat distributions were predicted every 30 years for the base years (1981 - 2010) and future years (2011 - 2100) of the Acer pictum subsp. mono. Acer pictum subsp. mono appearance data were collected from a total of 819 points through the national natural environment survey data. In order to improve the performance of the MaxEnt model, the parameters of the model (LQH-1.5) were optimized, and 7 detailed biolicm indices and 5 topographical indices were applied to the MaxEnt model. Drainage, Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and Slope significantly contributed to the distribution of Acer pictum subsp. mono in Korea. As a result of reflecting the growth characteristics that favor moist and fertile soil, the influence of climatic factors was not significant. Accordingly, in the base year, the suitable habitat for a high level of Acer pictum subsp. mono is 3.41% of the area of Korea, and in the near future (2011 - 2040) and far future (2071 - 2100), SSP1-2.6 accounts for 0.01% and 0.02%, gradually decreasing. However, in SSP5-8.5, it was 0.01% and 0.72%, respectively, showing a tendency to decrease in the near future compared to the base year, but to gradually increase toward the far future. This study confirms the future distribution of vegetation that is more easily adapted to climate change, and has significance as a basic study that can be used for future forest restoration of climate change-adapted species.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.229-237
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• 2015

This study aims to offer basic data to effectively preserve and manage pine forests using more precise pine forests' distribution status. In this regard, this study predicts the geographical distribution change of pine forests growing in South Korea, due to climate change, and evaluates the spatial distribution characteristics of pine forests by age. To this end, this study predicts the potential distribution change of pine forests by applying the MaxEnt model useful for species distribution change to the present and future climate change scenarios, and analyzes the effects of bioclimatic variables on the distribution area and change by age. Concerning the potential distribution regions of pine forests, the pine forests, aged 10 to 30 years in South Korea, relatively decreased more. As the area of the region suitable for pine forest by age was bigger, the decreased regions tend to become bigger, and the expanded regions tend to become smaller. Such phenomena is conjectured to be derived from changing of the interaction of pine forests by age from mutual promotional relations to competitive relations in the similar climate environment, while the regions suitable for pine forests' growth are mostly overlap regions. This study has found that precipitation affects more on the distribution of pine forests, compared to temperature change, and that pine trees' geographical distribution change is more affected by climate's extremities including precipitation of driest season and temperature of the coldest season than average climate characteristics. Especially, the effects of precipitation during the driest season on the distribution change of pine forests are irrelevant of pine forest's age class. Such results are expected to result in a reduction of the pine forest as the regions with the increase of moisture deficiency, where climate environment influencing growth and physiological responses related with drought is shaped, gradually increase according to future temperature rise. The findings in this study can be applied as a useful method for the prediction of geographical change according to climate change by using various biological resources information already accumulated. In addition, those findings are expected to be utilized as basic data for the establishment of climate change adaptation policies related to forest vegetation preservation in the natural ecosystem field.