• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.1-29
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• 2008

The objective of our study is to provide an exploratory model for forecasting sales take-off timing of a product in the context of multi-national markets. We evaluated the usefulness of key predictors such as multiple market information, product attributes, price, and sales for the forecasting of sales take-off timing by applying the suggested model to monthly sales data for PDP and LCD TV provided by a Korean electronics manufacturer. We have found some important results for global companies from the empirical analysis. Firstly, innovation coefficients obtained from sales data of a particular product in other markets can provide the most useful information on sales take-off timing of the product in a target market. However, imitation coefficients obtained from the sales data of a particular product in the target market and other markets are not useful for sales take-off timing of the product in the target market. Secondly, price and product attributes significantly influence on take-off timing. It is noteworthy that the ratio of the price of the target product to the average price of the market is more important than the price ofthe target product itself. Lastly, the cumulative sales of the product are still useful for the prediction of sales take-off timing. Our model outperformed the average model in terms of hit-rate.

• Korean Journal of Ichthyology
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.202-208
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• 2006

An experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of three water temperatures (15, 20 and $25^{\circ}C$) in combination with three salinities (0, 15 and 30 psu) on the oxygen consumption rate of juvenile spotted sea bass, Lateolabrax maculatus (mean body weight $5.5{\pm}0.3g$). The oxygen consumption rates of L. maculatus were measured in triplicate for 24 hours using a continuous flow-through respirometer. Water temperature resulted in significant differences in the mean oxygen consumption rate of L. maculatus (p<0.001), but salinity and combinations of salinity and water temperature did not have (p>0.05). The oxygen consumption increased with increasing water temperatures in all experimental salinity regimes (p<001). Mean oxygen consumption rates at 15, 20 and $25^{\circ}C$ ranged 328.8~342.3, 433.9~441.0 and 651.5~659.9 mg $O_2\;kg^{-1}\;h^{-1}$, respectively. $Q_{10}$ values did not vary with salinity, bud varied with water temperature. $Q_{10}$ values ranged 1.63~1.75 between 15 and $20^{\circ}C$, 2.24~2.26 between 20 and $25^{\circ}C$, and 1.92~1.98 over the full temperature range. The energy loss by metabolic cost increased with increasing water temperatures in all experimental salinity regimes (p<0.001) Mean energy loss rates at 15, 20 and $25^{\circ}C$ ranged 224.6~233.8, 296.3~301.2 and $444.9{\sim}450.7kJ\;kg^{-1}\;d^{-1}$, respectively. These data suggest that the culture of juvenile spotted sea bass is possible without energy loss by salinity difference in freshwater as well as seawater after salinity acclimation. Thus, this result has an application for culture management and bioenergetic model for growth of this species.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.49-58
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• 2009

Healthcare organizations need mutual cooperation among various medical professionals in order to carry out the performance of their duties spite of haying a strong job specialization and independence based on license. However, spite of the importance of leadership roles, there have not been enough researches dealt with leadership effect under the complex duties' relationship of a healthcare organization. This study suggested a new model by combining characteristics of leadership style, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment using Structural Equation Model (SEM). The data were self-administered questionnaires collected in 2006 from 437 employees (nurses, medical technicians, and administrative staffs) of 5 hospitals located in Seoul. The items of questionnaire were composed as a method of choosing new leadership style based on the Bass's standardized questionnaire on a Iransactionaljtransformational leadership combining the Leader Behavior Description Questionnaire-XII (LBDQ-XII) of the Ohio State University and Graen and Uhl-Bien's LMK scale through simulation techniques responding to organizational commitment. As a result, the leadership style increasing employees' self-confidence and having continuous response relationship between managers and employees improved their discretion and empowerment as well as worthwhileness and pride. However, the leadership style emphasizing reward and a sense of duty brought about a bed result that was not able to effectively respond to employees' discretion and empowerment and even weakened their worthwhileness and pride. After all, the leadership style based on vision and change had an effect on organizational commitment but the other one based on reward and a sense of duty seemed to be unsuccessful in organizational commitment. Therefore, the desirable leadership in a healthcare organization should be based on employees' self-confidence and continuous response relationship between managers and employees.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.21-33
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• 2001

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) was first introduced in Korea early 1990's, and Korean government has put a lot of efforts for flourishing it in the entire nation. Regardless of these efforts, private participation is not active enough to accelerate ITS implementation in Korea. Expert group made every endeavor to analyze the current situation, and found out some phenomena. It may be summarized as two folds. Firstly, private sector has a lack of confidence on the future ITS market. Budget in the strategic plan is the only publication and guide that private sector can refer to, and it merely indicates deployment costs. Secondly, direction and procedure of R&D are not well defined. It implies that private sector takes too much risk when they invest for R&D. This research, therefore, focuses on the first issues. Concretely, the goal of the project was to establish and analyze the model for estimation the future ITS market side. Author reviewed both quantitative and qualitative models, and concluded that diffusion model in qualitative model was suitable for ITS market estimation. According to model calibration. it is estimated that 14 trillion Won was the market size in 2020 under normal condition. Impact of this result may seduce Information Technology(IT) related private companies into ITS market. Although this research couldn't cover various topics, it nay dedicate in boosting ITS in Korea. Also, it will be a good starting point for further study for the advancement of ITS.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.25 no.9
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• pp.1234-1243
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• 2021

This study intends to provide a forecast of the diffusion of countries participating in a newly proposed G to G mechanism named as the "International Defense Industry Cooperation Program of Korea", modeled after the U.S. Foreign Military Sales(FMS). For this purpose, the study analyses 40 years of statistical data of U.S. FMS customers to find two parameters, coefficient of innovation and imitation, which explain the diffusion in FMS customers. Furthermore, the study forecasts the diffusion in international participation to the proposed mechanism taking account of the differences in the level of government competitiveness and the strength of defense industrial base of Korea and the U.S. This study also provides recommendations for accelerating the desired outcomes under the new program. While Korea is likely to have relative advantages over 'imitators' in the international market, it will need to gain competitiveness in high-level capabilities going beyond the realm of medium-high level systems, and present attractive alternatives for offsets.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.1-11
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• 2006

The Bass model assumes two communication channels: mass-media and word-of-mouth. In this paper, we call the mass-media Type I channel of communications. The word-of-mouth channel means interaction between non-adopters and adopters. Let us call it Type II channel of communications. In the real world, however, the non-adopters who are not aware of the innovation can be affected by communications with other non-adopters who are aware of it. Let us call it Type III channel of communications to differentiate with Type II channel. This paper analyzes the impact of Type III channel on diffusion process. The result shows that exponential growth patterns (for example, the adoption patterns of the blockbuster movies) can be observed when non-adopters are influenced by other non-adopters who aware of the innovation.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.181-195
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• 2005

To study the effects of aquaculture activity of marine cage fish farms on marine environment, field researches including hydrography, sediment, benthos and trap experiment at the marine cage fish farms(Site A) around estuaries of Tongyeong city were carried out during June $26\~27$, 2003. A simulation using numerical model-DEPOMOD was conducted to predict the solid deposition from fish cage and to assess the probable solid deposition, and the efficiency of environmental management of marine cage fish farms was studied. The marine cage fish farms cultured mainly common sea bass (Lateolabrax japonicus), red seabream (Pagrus major), striped breakperch (Oplegnathus fasciatus) and black rockfish(Sebastes schlegeli), and total amount of cultured fish of the Site A were 23.1MT. The amount of husbandry fish by unit area(and volume) of the fish cage was $43.0kg\;m^{-2}(6.1kg\;m^{-3})$. The daily mean amounts of food fed by unit biomass and cage area were $30.8g\;kg^{-1}day^{-1},\;1.32kg\;m^{-2}day^{-1},$ respectively, at the Site A. The concentration of ORP of the sediment below the center at the Site A was -334.6 mV and the concentrations of AVS, COD, Carbon and Nitrogen were $0.43mg\;g^{-1}dry,\;17.75mg\;g^{-1}dry,\;10.19mg\;g^{-1}dry\;and\;3.49mg\;g^{-1}dry$, respectively. Capitella capitata was dominant benthic species which occupied $57.8\%$ of total species, and the Infaunal Trophical Index(ITI) was marked below 20 within 20 m distance from the edge of the Site A. The result of trap experiment, the solid deposition from the Site A was $34,485g\;m^{-2}yr^{-1}$ at 0 m from the center of the cage and $18,915g\;m^{-2}yr^{-1}$ at 42 m. From a model simulation, it was estimated that using a model simulation, the proportion of unfed food was $40\%$ at the Site A and the annual total amount of solid deposition was 63,401 accounting for $24.4\%$ of the annual total food fed at the Site A. The area solid deposition settled was estimated to be $8,450m^2$, which was about 16 times of the total area of fish cage at the Site A. And concerning ITI and abundance of benthos, the model predicted that sustainable solid flux at the Site A was below $10,000gm^{-2}yr^{-1}$. The percentage of food wasted was main element of solid deposition at the marine cage fish farms, and for minimizing solid deposition it is necessary to increase the efficiency of the food uptake. Based on the result of the model simulation, if the percentage of food wasted decreases to $10\%$ from the current $40\%$, then the solid deposition could decrease to a half. In addition, it was predicted that if farmers use EP pellets as food fed instead of MP and fish trash, solid deposition could decrease by $57\%$. Also this study proposes that the cage facility ratio of the licensed area be decreased to less than $5\%$ to minimize the sediment pollution.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.9 no.8
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• pp.324-332
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• 2009

It a very important part to keep a good relationship with supporters to promote the activities smoothly in non-profit-making organizations. The donation, a financial source of non-profit-making organizations, and the volunteer activities of supporters are also born from the identity with the supportive organizations. This research is a study about the relationship sustainability with supporters and supportive organizations, which is practiced with the variables of image, service quality, ethics, activity, satisfaction, trust, and intent of sustaining their support of supportive organizations. This research aims at making the model of relationship-sustaining intent of supporters and supportive organizations on the bass of the relationship between the conceptual definition about supportive activities and the variables influencing the supportive activities, and at suggesting the marketing points of non-profit-making organizations on the base of the model. This is because the concept of service quality about non-profit-making organizations has not been formed yet, and so it does not influence the trust or the satisfaction. Other assumptions seemed to have some relationship. As a result, in order to increase the intent of sustaining support and the trust in organizations, they need to inform supporters of the image or the results of activities by means of active marketing activities.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.132-142
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• 2009

The Tamar rift valley runs through the City of Launceston, Tasmania. Damage has occurred to city buildings due to earthquake activity in Bass Strait. The presence of the ancient valley, the Tamar valley, in-filled with soft sediments that vary rapidly in thickness from 0 to 250mover a few hundreds metres, is thought to induce a 2D resonance pattern, amplifying the surface motions over the valley and in Launceston. Spatially averaged coherency (SPAC), frequency-wavenumber (FK) and horizontal to vertical spectrum ratio (HVSR) microtremor survey methods are combined to identify and characterise site effects over the Tamar valley. Passive seismic array measurements acquired at seven selected sites were analysed with SPAC to estimate shear wave velocity (slowness) depth profiles. SPAC was then combined with HVSR to improve the resolution of these profiles in the sediments to an approximate depth of 125 m. Results show that sediments thicknesses vary significantly throughout Launceston. The top layer is composed of as much as 20m of very soft Quaternary alluvial sediments with a velocity from 50 m/s to 125 m/s. Shear-wave velocities in the deeper Tertiary sediment fill of the Tamar valley, with thicknesses from 0 to 250m vary from 400 m/s to 750 m/s. Results obtained using SPAC are presented at two selected sites (GUN and KPK) that agree well with dispersion curves interpreted with FK analysis. FK interpretation is, however, limited to a narrower range of frequencies than SPAC and seems to overestimate the shear wave velocity at lower frequencies. Observed HVSR are also compared with the results obtained by SPAC, assuming a layered earth model, and provide additional constraints on the shear wave slowness profiles at these sites. The combined SPAC and HVSR analysis confirms the hypothesis of a layered geology at the GUN site and indicates the presence of a 2D resonance pattern across the Tamar valley at the KPK site.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.17-35
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• 2015

Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.