• 제목/요약/키워드: Average Load

검색결과 1,458건 처리시간 0.034초

A short-term Load Forecasting Using Chaotic Time Series (Chaos특성을 이용한 단기부하예측)

  • Choi, Jae-Gyun;Park, Jong-Keun;Kim, Kwang-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 대한전기학회 1996년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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    • pp.835-837
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    • 1996
  • In this paper, a method for the daily maximum load forecasting which uses a chaotic time series in power system and artificial neural network(Back-propagation) is proposed. We find the characteristics of chaos in power load curve and then determine a optimal embedding dimension and delay time. For the load forecast of one day ahead daily maximum power, we use the time series load data obtained in previous year. By using of embedding dimension and delay time, we construct a strange attractor in pseudo phase plane and the artificial neural network model trained with the attractor mentioned above. The one day ahead forecast errors are about 1.4% for absolute percentage average error.

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Development of An Yearly Load Forecasting System (연간수요예측시스템의 개발)

  • Choo, Jin-Boo;Lee, Cheol-Hyu;Jeon, Dong-Hun;Kim, Sung-Hak;Hwang, Kab-Ju
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 대한전기학회 1996년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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    • pp.908-912
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    • 1996
  • The yearly load forecasting system has been developed for the economic and secure operation of electric power system. It forecasts yearly peak load and thereafter deduces hourly load using the top-down approach. Relative coefficient model has been applied to estimate peak load of a specific date or a specific day of the week. It is equipped with graphic user interface which enables a user to easily access to the system. Yearly average forecasting error may be reduced to $2{\sim}3$(%) only if we can forecast summer-time temperature correctly.

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Customer Clustering Method Using Repeated Small-sized Clustering to improve the Classifying Ability of Typical Daily Load Profile (일일 대표 부하패턴의 분별력을 높이기 위한 반복적인 소규모 군집화를 이용한 고객 군집화 방법)

  • Kim, Young-Il;Song, Jae-Ju;Oh, Do-Eun;Jung, Nam-Joon;Yang, Il-Kwon
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • 제58권11호
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    • pp.2269-2274
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    • 2009
  • Customer clustering method is used to make a TDLP (typical daily load profile) to estimate the quater hourly load profile of non-AMR (Automatic Meter Reading) customer. In this paper, repeated small-sized clustering method is supposed to improve the classifying ability of TDLP. K-means algorithm is well-known clustering technology of data mining. To reduce the local maxima of k-means algorithm, proposed method clusters average load profiles to small-sized clusters and selects the highest error rated cluster and clusters this to small-sized clusters repeatedly to minimize the local maxima.

Effects of Phase Change Material Floor Heating Systems using Direct Solar Gain on Cooling Load (직달일사를 이용한 잠열축열식 바닥난방 시스템이 냉방부하에 미치는 영향에 대한 검토)

  • Kim, Soo-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2013
  • In this research, the effect of a heating system, which is powered by direct solar energy accumulated in phase change material (PCM) as heat storage material installed on the floor surface, on the cooling load was studied. Cooling load of a test building designed for this research was measured with fan coil unit and factors affecting it were also estimated. Experiments were performed with and without PCM installed on the building floor to understand the effect of the PCM on the cooling load. Additionally, to confirm the experiments results, the prediction calculation formula by average outside temperature and integrated solar radiation was composed using multivariate regression model. The results suggested that the heating system with PCM on the floor surface has the potential to shift electric power peak by radiating heat, stored during the daytime in it, at night, not increasing the total cooling load much.

Moving-load dynamic analysis of AFG beams under thermal effect

  • Akbas, S.D.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • 제42권5호
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    • pp.649-655
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    • 2022
  • In presented paper, moving load problem of simply supported axially functionally graded (AFG) beam is investigated under temperature rising based on the first shear beam theory. The material properties of beam vary along the axial direction. Material properties of the beam are considered as temperature-dependent. The governing equations of problem are derived by using the Lagrange procedure. In the solution of the problem the Ritz method is used and algebraic polynomials are used with the trivial functions for the Ritz method. In the solution of the moving load problem, the Newmark average acceleration method is used in the time history. In the numerical examples, the effects of material graduation, temperature rising and velocity of moving load on the dynamic responses ofAFG beam are presented and discussed.

Reliability Evaluation of Extrapolated Failure Load of Drilled Shafts Embedded in Weathered Rock (풍화암에 근입된 현장타설말뚝의 외삽 파괴하중 신뢰성 분석)

  • Jung, Sung-Jun;Lee, Sang-Inn;Jeon, Jong-Woo;Kim, Myoung-Mo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 한국지반공학회 2009년도 세계 도시지반공학 심포지엄
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    • pp.993-1000
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    • 2009
  • In general, a drilled shaft embedded in weathered rock has a large load bearing capacity. Therefore, most of the load tests are performed only up to the load level that confirms the pile design load capacity, and stopped much before the failure load of the pile is attained. If a reliable failure load value can be extracted from the premature load test data, it will be possible to greatly improve economic efficiency as well as pile design quality. The main purpose of this study is to propose a standard for judging the reliability of the failure load of piles that is obtained from extrapolated load test data. To this aim, eleven static load test data of load-displacement curves were obtained from testing of piles to their failures from 3 different field sites. For each load-displacement curve, loading was assumed as 25%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% of the actual pile bearing capacity. The limited known data were then extrapolated using the hyperbolic function, and the failure load was re-determined for each extrapolated data by the ASCE 20-96 method (1997). Statistical analysis was performed on the reliability of the re-evaluated failure loads. The results showed that if the ratio of the maximum-available displacement to the failure-load displacement exceeds 0.6, the extrapolated failure load may be regarded as reliable, having less than a conservative 20% error on average. The applicability of the proposed standard of judgment was also verified with static load test data of driven piles.

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Establishment of Target Water Quality for TOC of Total Water Load Management System (오염총량관리제도의 TOC 목표수질 설정 방안)

  • Kim, Yong Sam;Lee, Eun Jeong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • 제35권6호
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    • pp.520-538
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    • 2019
  • In this study, it was proposed that a method of setting the target water quality for TOC using the watershed model and the load duration curves to manage non-biodegradable organics in the total water load management system. To simulate runoff and water quality of the watershed, the HSPF model is used which is appropriate for urban and rural areas. Additionally, the load duration curve is used to reflect the variable water quality correlated with various river flow rates in preparing the TMDL plans in the U.S. First, the model was constructed by inputting the loads calculated from the pollutant sources in 2015. After the calibration and verification process, the water quality by flow conditions was analyzed from the BOD and TOC simulation results. When the BOD achieved the target water quality by inputting the target year loads for 2020, the median and average values of TOC were proposed for the target water quality. The provisional method of TOC target water quality for the management of non-biodegradable organics, which is one of the challenges of the total water load management system, was considered. In the future, it is expected to be used as basic data for the conversion of BOD into TOC in the total water load management system.

Comparative Part Load Performance Analysis of Gas Turbine Power Generation Systems Considering Exhaust Heat Utilization (배열 이용도를 고려한 가스터빈 발전시스템의 부분부하 성능 비교분석)

  • Kim, T. S.
    • 유체기계공업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 유체기계공업학회 2002년도 유체기계 연구개발 발표회 논문집
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    • pp.290-297
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents analysis results for the effect of power control strategies on the part load performance of gas turbine based power generation systems utilizing exhaust heat of the gas turbine such as cumbined cycle power plants and regenerative gas turbines. For the combined cycle, part load efficiency variations were compared among different single shaft gas turbines representing various technology levels. Power control strategies considered were fuel only control and IGV control. It has been observed that gas turbines with higher design performances exhibit superior part load performances. Improvement of part load efficiency by adopting air flow modulation was analyzed and it is concluded that since the average combined cycle performance is affected by the range of IGV control as well as its temperature control principle, a control strategy appropriate for the load characteristics of the individual plant should be adopted. For the regenerative gas turbine, it is likewise concluded that maintaining exhaust temperature as high as possible by air flow rate modulation is required to increase part load efficiency.

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Development of accelerated life test method for the wind turbine Gearbox using cumulative damage theory (누적손상이론을 이용한 풍력증속기의 가속수명시험법 개발)

  • Son, Ki-Su;Kwak, Hee-Sung;Kang, Change-Hoon;Cho, Jun-Haeng
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2005년도 제17회 워크샵 및 추계학술대회
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    • pp.693-697
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    • 2005
  • This study was performed to develop accelerated life test method of the wind-turbine gearbox using accumulated damage theory that used to model the fatigue of parts that receive variable load. The accumulated damage theory was introduced, and the estimation of life and calculation of accelerated life test time was illustrated. As the actual application example, accelerated life test method of the gearbox was described. Life distribution of the wind-turbine gearbox was supposed to follow Weibull distribution and life test time was calculated under the conditions of average life (MTBF) 140,600 hours and 99% reliability for one test sample According to the accumulated damage theory, because test time can shorten in case increase test load, test time could be reduced by 1.2 years when we put the load 1.2 times of rated load than 0.93 times of rated load that is equivalent load calculated by load spectrum of the wind turbine. This time, acceleration coefficient was 21.3. This accelerated test method was used to develop accelerated test method of gear reducer, gear and bearing as well as the industrial gearbox and it is considered to be applied comprehensively to mechanical parts the fatigue of which is happened by load or pressure etc.

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Comparative Part Load Performance Analysis of Gas Turbine Power Generation Systems Considering Exhaust Heat Utilization (배열 이용도를 고려한 가스터빈 발전시스템의 부분부하 성능 비교분석)

  • Kim, T.S.
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents analysis results for the effect of power control strategies on the part load performance of gas turbine based power generation systems utilizing exhaust heat of the gas turbine such as combined cycle power plants and regenerative gas turbines. For the combined cycle, part load efficiency variations were compared among different single shaft gas turbines representing various technology levels. Power control strategies considered were fuel only control and IGV control. It has been observed that gas turbines with higher design performances exhibit superior part load performances. Improvement of part load efficiency of the combined cycle by adopting air flow modulation was analyzed and it was concluded that since the average combined cycle performance is affected by the range of IGV control as well as its temperature control principle, a control strategy appropriate for the load characteristics of the individual plant should be adopted. For the regenerative gas turbine, it is likewise concluded that maintaining exhaust temperature as high as possible by air flow rate modulation is required to increase part load efficiency.