• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.26 no.10
• /
• pp.1135-1146
• /
• 2017

At riverbank filtration sites, groundwater levels of alluvial aquifers near rivers are sensitive to variation in river discharge and pumping quantities. In this study, the groundwater level fluctuation, pumping quantity, and streamflow rate at the site of a riverbank filtration plant, which produces drinking water, in the lower Nakdong River basin, South Korea were interrelated. The relationship between drawdown ratio and river discharge was very strong with a correlation coefficient of 0.96, showing a greater drawdown ratio in the wet season than in the dry season. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation were carried out to characterize groundwater level fluctuation. Autoregressive model analysis of groundwater water level fluctuation led to efficient estimation and prediction of pumping for riverbank filtration in relation to river discharge rates, using simple inputs of river discharge and pumping data, without the need for numerical models that require data regarding several aquifer properties and hydrologic parameters.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.36 no.3
• /
• pp.203-211
• /
• 2010

This study examines a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model where parameters are subject to switch across the regimes in the term structure of interest rates. To employ the regime switching framework, the Markov-switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM) is allowed to the regime shifts in the vector of intercept terms, the variance-covariance terms, the error correction terms, and the autoregressive coefficient parts. The corresponding approaches are illustrated using the term structure of interest rates in the US Treasury bonds over the period of 1958 to 2009. Throughout the modeling procedure, we find that the MS-VECM can form a statistically adequate representation of the term structure of interest rate in the US Treasury bonds. Moreover, the regime switching effects are analyzed in connection with the historical government monetary policy and with the recent global financial crisis. Finally, the results from the comparisons both in information criteria and in forecasting exercises with and without the regime switching lead us to conclude that the models in the presence of regime dependence are superior to the linear VECM model.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
• /
• v.11 no.1
• /
• pp.39-50
• /
• 2021

Purpose: This study seeks to establish the environmental damage theory applicable to Kenya. The analysis is based on annual data drawn from World Bank on carbon dioxide emissions (CO2e) and gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) for Kenya spanning 1963 to 2017. Research Methodology: The study adopts explanatory research design and autoregressive distributed lag model for analysis. Results: The results revealed a coefficient of -0.017 for GDPPC and 0.004 for GDPPC squared indicating that economic growth has negative effect on CO2e in the initial stages of growth but positive effect in the high growth regime with the marginal effect being higher in the initial growth regime. The findings suggest a U-shaped relationship consistent with Brundtland Curve Hypothesis (BCH). Conclusions: The findings emphasize the need for sustainable development path that enables present generations to meet own needs without compromising the capacity of future generations to meet their own. Sustainable development may include, investment in renewable energies like wind, solar and adoption of energy efficient technologies in production and manufacturing. The study concludes that BCH is applicable to Kenya and that developing affordable and effective mechanisms to boost sustainable development implementation is necessary to decrease the anthropogenic impact in the environment without any attendant reduction in the economic growth.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.47 no.3
• /
• pp.211-232
• /
• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

• Journal of Smart Tourism
• /
• v.2 no.3
• /
• pp.17-30
• /
• 2022

The tourism sector of the Maldives has seen rapid growth since its inception in 1972. One significant development is the transformation of the market composition in recent years. China has surpassed traditional European markets as the single largest source market. In this regard, this study seeks to assess the seasonality in the Maldivian tourism sector using a monthly dataset of visitor arrivals from 2003 to 2019. The seasonality ratio, the seasonality indicator, the Gini coefficient and the seasonal index were used to examine the seasonality patterns. The results of this study show that there are three distinct peaks (January to April, August, and November to December) and two off-peaks (May to July and September) periods. The findings also reveal that the rise of the Chinese market has significantly lessened the seasonality of Maldivian inbound tourism. Finally, some important implications are discussed.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.330-335
• /
• 1999

The goal of the study is to determine the most sensitive parameter to represent the degree of muscle force and fatigue. Various numerical parameters such as the first coefficient of Autoregressive (AR) Model, Root Mean Square (RMS), Zero Crossing Rate (ZCR), Mean Power Frequency (MPF), Median Frequency (MF) were tested in this study. Ten healthy male subjects participated in the experiment. They were asked to extend their trunk by using the right and left erector spinae muscles during a sustained isometric contraction for twenty seconds. The force levels were 15%, 30%, 45%, 60%, and 75% of Maximal Voluntary Contraction (MVC), and the order of trials was randomized. The results showed that RMS was the best parameter to measure the force level of the muscle, and that the first coefficient of AR model was relatively sensitive parameter for the fatigue measurement at less than 60% MVC condition. At the 75% MVC, however, both MPF and the first coefficient of AR Model showed the best performance in quantification of muscle fatigue. Therefore, the sensitivity of measurement can be improved by properly selecting the parameter based upon the level of force during a sustained isometric condition.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.121-145
• /
• 1992

This paper examines characteristics of time series data related to the construction investment(stationarity and time series components such as secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, and random change) and surveys predictibility, fitness, and explicability of independent variables of various models to build a short-term construction investment forecasting model suitable for current economic circumstances. Unit root test, autocorrelation coefficient and spectral density function analysis show that related time series data do not have unit roots, fluctuate cyclically, and are largely explicated by lagged variables. Moreover it is very important for the short-term construction investment forecasting to grasp time lag relation between construction investment series and leading indicators such as building construction permits and value of construction orders received. In chapter 3, we explicate 7 forecasting models; Univariate time series model (ARIMA and multiplicative linear trend model), multivariate time series model using leading indicators (1st order autoregressive model, vector autoregressive model and error correction model) and multivariate time series model using National Accounts data (simple reduced form model disconnected from simultaneous macroeconomic model and VAR model). These models are examined by 4 statistical tools that are average absolute error, root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, and Durbin-Watson statistic. This analysis proves two facts. First, multivariate models are more suitable than univariate models in the point that forecasting error of multivariate models tend to decrease in contrast to the case of latter. Second, VAR model is superior than any other multivariate models; average absolute prediction error and root mean square error of VAR model are quitely low and adjusted coefficient of determination is higher. This conclusion is reasonable when we consider current construction investment has sustained overheating growth more than secular trend.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
• /
• v.18 no.7
• /
• pp.101-111
• /
• 1999

This paper presents concrete pattern recognition method to identify the strength of concrete by evidence accumulation with multiple parameters based on artificial intelligence techniques. At first, variance(VAR), zero-crossing(ZCR), mean frequency(MEANF), and autoregressive model coefficient(ARC) and linear cepstrum coefficient(LCC) are extracted as feature parameters from ultrasonic signal of concrete. Pattern recognition is carried out through the evidence accumulation procedure using distance measured with reference parameters. A fuzzy mapping function is designed to transform the distances for the application of the evidence accumulation method. Results(92% successful pattern recognition rate) are presented to support the feasibility of the suggested approach for concrete pattern recognition.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
• /
• v.3 no.4
• /
• pp.23-27
• /
• 2010

This paper performs emotion classification test to find out the best parameter of electroencyphalogram(EEG) signal. Linear predictor coefficients, band cross-correlation coefficients of fast Fourier transform(FFT) and autoregressive model spectra are used as the parameters of 10-channel EEG signal. A multi-layer neural network is used as the pattern classifier. Four emotions for relaxation, joy, sadness, irritation are induced by four university students of an acting circle. Electrode positions are Fp1, Fp2, F3, F4, T3, T4, P3, P4, O1, O2. As a result, the Linear predictor coefficients showed the best performance.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.155-167
• /
• 2014

This study uses a continuous autoregressive (CAR) model to analyze daily average temperature in six Korean metropolitan cities. Data period is Jan. 1, 1954 to Dec. 31, 2010 covering 57 years. Using a relative long time series reveals that the linear time trend components are all statistically significant in the six cities, which was not shown in previous studies. Particularly the plus sign of its coefficient implies the effect on Korea of the global warming. Unit-root test results are that the temperature time series are stationary without unit-root. It turns out that CAR(3) is suitable for stochastic component of the daily temperature. Since developing suitable continuous stochastic model of the underlying weather related variables is crucial in pricing the weather derivatives, the results in this study will likely prove useful in further future studies on pricing weather derivatives.