DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Measuring Seasonality in Maldivian Inbound Tourism

  • 투고 : 2022.07.19
  • 심사 : 2022.10.10
  • 발행 : 2022.09.30

초록

The tourism sector of the Maldives has seen rapid growth since its inception in 1972. One significant development is the transformation of the market composition in recent years. China has surpassed traditional European markets as the single largest source market. In this regard, this study seeks to assess the seasonality in the Maldivian tourism sector using a monthly dataset of visitor arrivals from 2003 to 2019. The seasonality ratio, the seasonality indicator, the Gini coefficient and the seasonal index were used to examine the seasonality patterns. The results of this study show that there are three distinct peaks (January to April, August, and November to December) and two off-peaks (May to July and September) periods. The findings also reveal that the rise of the Chinese market has significantly lessened the seasonality of Maldivian inbound tourism. Finally, some important implications are discussed.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Agacevic, A., & Xu, M. (2020). Chinese tourists as a sustainable boost to low seasons in ex-Yugoslavia destinations. Sustainability, 12(2), 449. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020449
  2. Amelung, B., Nicholls, S., & Viner, D. (2007). Implications of global climate change for tourism flows and seasonality. Journal of Travel Research, 45(3), 285-296. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287506295937
  3. Ashworth, J., & Thomas, B. (1999). Patterns of seasonality in employment in tourism in the UK. Applied Economics Letters, 6(11), 735-739. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048599352312
  4. Asian Development Bank. (2020). Maldives development update 2020. Retrieved, from https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/674971/maldives-economic-update-2020.pdf
  5. Assaf, A. G., Li, G., Song, H., & Tsionas, M. G. (2019). Modeling and forecasting regional tourism demand using the Bayesian global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model. Journal of Travel Research, 58(3), 383-397. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287518759226
  6. Ball, R. M. (1988). Seasonality: A problem for workers in the tourism labour market? Service Industries Journal, 8(4), 501-513. https://doi.org/10.1080/02642068800000068
  7. Birkland, T. A., Herabat, P., Little, R. G., & Wallace, W. A. (2006). The impact of the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on tourism in Thailand. Earthquake Spectra, 22(suppl 3), 889-900. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2207471
  8. Butler, R. (1998). Seasonality in tourism: Issues and implications. Review, 53(3), 18-24.
  9. Butler, R., & Mao, B. (1997). Seasonality in tourism: Problems and measurement. In P. Murphy (Ed.), Quality management in urban tourism (pp. 9-24). Chichester: Wiley.
  10. Candela, G., & Figini, P. (2012). The economics of tourism destinations (pp. 73-130). Netherlands: Elsevier.
  11. Chen, T., & Pearce, P. L. (2012) Research note: Seasonality patterns in Asian tourism. Tourism Economics, 18(5), 1105-1115. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2012.0163
  12. Connell, J., Page, S. J., & Meyer, D. (2015). Visitor attractions and events: Responding to seasonality. Tourism Management, 46, 283-298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2014.06.013
  13. Cooper, M. (2006). Japanese tourism and the SARS epidemic of 2003. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 19(2-3), 117-131. https://doi.org/10.1300/J073v19n02_10
  14. Croce, V., & Wo ber, K. (2010). Seasonality in city tourism: Concepts and measurements. In: K. W. Wo ber and J. A. Mazanec (Eds.), Analysing international city tourism (pp. 59-77). New York, NY: Springer Wien.
  15. Cuccia, T., & Rizzo, I. (2011). Tourism seasonality in cultural destinations: Empirical evidence from Sicily. Tourism Management, 32(3), 589-595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2010.05.008
  16. de Esteban Curiel, J., Delgado Jalon, M. L., Rodriguez Herraez, B., & Antonovica, A. (2017). Smart tourism destination in Madrid. In. Innovation, technology, and knowledge management (pp. 101-114). Cham, Germany: Springer.
  17. Deery, M., Jago, L., & Fredline, L. (2012). Rethinking social impacts of tourism research: A new research agenda. Tourism Management, 33(1), 64-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.01.026
  18. DeLurgio, S. A. (1998). Forecasting principles and applications. Irwin: McGraw-Hill.
  19. Duro, J. A. (2016). Seasonality of hotel demand in the main Spanish provinces: Measurements and decomposition exercises. Tourism Management, 52, 52-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.06.013
  20. Duro, J. A., & Turrio n-Prats, J. (2019). Tourism seasonality worldwide. Tourism Management Perspectives, 31, 38-53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2019.03.010
  21. Ferna ndez-Morales, A. (2003). Decomposing seasonal concentration. Annals of Tourism Research, 30(4), 942-956. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(03)00090-2
  22. Ferna ndez-Morales, A., & Cisneros-Martinez, J. D. (2019). Seasonal concentration decomposition of cruise tourism demand in Southern Europe. Journal of Travel Research, 58(8), 1389-1407. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287518802094
  23. Ferna ndez-Morales, A., Cisneros-Marti nez, J. D., & McCabe, S. (2016). Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications. Tourism Management, 56, 172-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.04.004
  24. Ferrante, M., lo Magno, G. L., & de Cantis, S. (2018). Measuring tourism seasonality across European countries. Tourism Management, 68, 220-235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.03.015
  25. Figini, P., & Vici, L. (2012). Off-season tourists and the cultural offer of a mass-tourism destination: The case of Rimini. Tourism Management, 33(4), 825-839. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.09.005
  26. Flognfeldt, T. (2001). Long-term positive adjustments to seasonality: Consequences of summer tourism in the Jotunheimen area, Norway. In: S. Lundtorp and T. Baum (Eds), Seasonality in tourism (pp. 109-117). Oxford: Elsevier.
  27. Getz, D., & Nilsson, P. A. (2004). Responses of family businesses to extreme seasonality in demand: The case of Bornholm, Denmark. Tourism Management, 25(1), 17-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00067-0
  28. Go mez Marti n, M. B. (2005). Weather, climate and tourism a geographical perspective. Annals of Tourism Research, 32(3), 571-591. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2004.08.004
  29. Goh, C., & Law, R. (2002). Modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention. Tourism Management, 23(5), 499-510. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00009-2
  30. Gonza lez, P., & Moral, P. (1996). Analysis of tourism trends in Spain. Annals of Tourism Research, 23(4), 739-754. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(96)00019-9
  31. Gounopoulos, D., Petmezas, D., & Santamaria, D. (2012). Forecasting tourist arrivals in Greece and the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the countries of tourists' origin. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(2), 641-666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2011.09.001
  32. Granger, C. W. (1978). Seasonality: Causation, interpretation, and implications. In: A. Zellner (Ed.), Seasonal analysis of economic time series (pp. 33-56). Cambridge: National Bureau for Economic Research.
  33. Gunter, U., & O nder, I. (2016). Forecasting city arrivals with Google analytics. Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 199-212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2016.10.007
  34. Hadwen, W. L., Arthington, A. H., Boon, P. I., Taylor, B., & Fellows, C. S. (2011). Do climatic or institutional factors drive seasonal patterns of tourism visitation to protected areas across diverse climate zones in Eastern Australia? Tourism Geographies, 13(2), 187-208. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2011.569568
  35. Hamilton, J. M., & Tol, R. S. J. (2007). The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: A simulation study. Regional Environmental Change, 7(3), 161-172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-007-0036-2
  36. Hassani, H., Silva, E. S., Antonakakis, N., Filis, G., & Gupta, R. (2017). Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals. Annals of Tourism Research, 63, 112-127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.01.008
  37. Higham, J., & Hinch, T. (2002). Tourism, sport and seasons: The challenges and potential of overcoming seasonality in the sport and tourism sectors. Tourism Management, 23(2), 175-185. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(01)00046-2
  38. Hinch, T. D., & Jackson, E. L. (2000). Leisure constraints research: Its value as a framework for understanding tourism seasonability. Current Issues in Tourism, 3(2), 87-106. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500008667868
  39. Ioannides, D., & Petersen, T. (2003). Tourism "non-entrepreneurship" in peripheral destinations: A case study of small and medium tourism enterprises on Bornholm, Denmark. Tourism Geographies, 5(4), 408-435. https://doi.org/10.1080/1461668032000129146
  40. Jang, S. C. (2004). Mitigating tourism seasonality: A Quantitative Approach. Annals of Tourism Research, 31(4), 819-836. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2004.02.007
  41. Jeffrey, D., & Barden, R. R. D. (1999). An analysis of the nature, causes and marketing implications of seasonality in the occupancy performance of English hotels. Tourism Economics, 5(1), 69-91. https://doi.org/10.1177/135481669900500105
  42. Klenosky, D. B. (2002). The "pull" of tourism destinations: A means-end investigation. Journal of Travel Research, 40(4), 396-403. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728750204000405
  43. Koc, E., & Altinay, G. (2007). An analysis of seasonality in monthly per person tourist spending in Turkish inbound tourism from a market segmentation perspective. Tourism Management, 28(1), 227-237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2006.01.003
  44. Koenig, N., & Bischoff, E. E. (2003). Seasonality of tourism in Wales: A comparative analysis. Tourism Economics, 9(3), 229-254. https://doi.org/10.1177/135481660300900301
  45. Koenig, N., & Bischoff, E. E. (2004). Analysing seasonality in Welsh room occupancy data. Annals of Tourism Research, 31(2), 374-392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2003.12.006
  46. Koenig-Lewis, N., & Bischoff, E. E. (2005). Seasonality research: The state of the art. International Journal of Tourism Research, 7(4-5), 201-219. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.531
  47. Kozak, M. (2002). Comparative analysis of tourist motivations by nationality and destinations. Tourism Management, 23(3), 221-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(01)00090-5
  48. Kulendran, N., & Dwyer, L. (2010). Seasonal variation versus climate variation for Australian tourism. CRC for Sustainable Tourism Pty Limited. Retrieved, from https://www.vu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2010_KulendranDwyer_Seasonal_Variations_Aust_Tourism.pdf
  49. Li, H., Goh, C., Hung, K., & Chen, J. L. (2018). Relative climate index and its effect on seasonal tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research, 57(2), 178-192. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287516687409
  50. Li, H., Song, H., & Li, L. (2017). A dynamic panel data analysis of climate and tourism demand: Additional evidence. Journal of Travel Research, 56(2), 158-171. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287515626304
  51. Lo Magno, G. L., Ferrante, M., & de Cantis, S. (2017). A new index for measuring seasonality: A transportation cost approach. Mathematical Social Sciences, 88, 55-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2017.05.002
  52. Lundmark, L. (2006). Mobility, migration and seasonal tourism employment: Evidence from Swedish Mountain municipalities. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 6(3), 197-213. https://doi.org/10.1080/15022250600866282
  53. Lundtorp, S. (2001). Measuring tourism seasonality. In: T. Baum and S. Lundtorp (Eds.) Seasonality in tourism (Vol. 3, pp. 23-50). London: Routledge.
  54. Lusseau, D., & Higham, J. E. S. (2004). Managing the impacts of dolphinbased tourism through the definition of critical habitats: The case of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops spp.) in Doubtful Sound, New Zealand. Tourism Management, 25(6), 657-667. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2003.08.012
  55. Manuel Lo pez Bonilla, J., Miguel Lo pez Bonilla, L., & Sanz Altamira, B. (2006). Patterns of tourist seasonality in Spanish regions. Tourism and Hospitality Planning and Development, 3(3), 241-256. https://doi.org/10.1080/14790530601132468
  56. Marti n, J. M. M., Aguilera, J. D. D. J., & Moreno, V. M. (2014). Impacts of seasonality on environmental sustainability in the tourism sector based on destination type: An application to Spain's Andalusia region. Tourism Economics, 20(1), 123-142. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2013.0256
  57. Ministry of Tourism. (2019). Monthly statistics, Retrieved December 2019, from https://www.tourism.gov.mv/statistics/publications/year-2019
  58. Ministry of Tourism. (2021). Monthly statistics, Retrieved October 2021, from https://www.tourism.gov.mv/statistics/publications/year-2021
  59. Ministry of Tourism. (2021). Tourism year book 2021. Retrieved, from https://www.tourism.gov.mv/statistics/publications/year-2021
  60. Nadal, J. R., Font, A. R., & Rossello , A. S. (2004). The economic determinants of seasonal patterns. Annals of Tourism Research, 31(3), 697-711. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2004.02.001
  61. National Bureau of Statistics, & Ministry of National Planning and Infrastructure. (2021). Retrieved from http://statisticsmaldives.gov.mv/yearbook/
  62. Neuhofer, B., Buhalis, D., & Ladkin, A. (2012). Conceptualising technology enhanced destination experiences. Journal of Destination Marketing and Management, 1(1-2), 36-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2012.08.001
  63. Papatheodorou, A. (1999). The demand for international tourism in the Mediterranean region. Applied Economics, 31(5), 619-630. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368499324066
  64. Pegg, S., Patterson, I., & Gariddo, P. V. (2012). The impact of seasonality on tourism and hospitality operations in the alpine region of New South Wales, Australia. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 31(3), 659-666.
  65. Pine, R., & McKercher, B. (2004). The impact of SARS on Hong Kong's tourism industry. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 16(2), 139-143. https://doi.org/10.1108/09596110410520034
  66. Purwomarwanto, Y. L., & Ramachandran, J. (2015). Performance of Tourism Sector with regard to the Global Crisis- A Comparative Study Between Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. Journal of Developing Areas, 49(4), 325-339. https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2015.0149
  67. Rabeeu, A., Shouming, C., Hasan, M. A., Ramos, D. L., & Abdul Rahim, A. B. A. (2021). Assessing the recovery rate of inbound tourist arrivals amid COVID-19: Evidence from the Maldives. International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration, 7(6), 7-15.
  68. Rach, L. (1997). The connected consumer: Implications for hospitality sales and marketing. Hospitality Sales and Marketing Association International, 13(3), 23-26.
  69. Ridderstaat, J., Oduber, M., Croes, R., Nijkamp, P., & Martens, P. (2014). Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba. Tourism Management, 41, 245-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.09.005
  70. Rudihartmann, . (1986). Tourism, seasonality and social change. Leisure Studies, 5(1), 25-33. https://doi.org/10.1080/02614368600390021
  71. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., & Schwartzentruber, M. (2004). Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America. Climate Research, 27(2), 105-117. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr027105
  72. Shen, S., Li, G., & Song, H. (2011). Combination forecasts of international tourism demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(1), 72-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2010.05.003
  73. Syriopoulos, T. C. (1995). A dynamic model of demand for Mediterranean tourism. International Review of Applied Economics, 9(3), 318-336. https://doi.org/10.1080/758537633
  74. Teixeira, J. P., & Fernandes, P. O. (2012). Tourism time series forecast - Different ANN architectures with time index input. Procedia Technology, 5, 445-454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.protcy.2012.09.049
  75. Tucker, R. D., Marshall, V. W., Longino, C. F., & Mullins, L. C. (1988). Older anglophone Canadian snowbirds in Florida: A descriptive profile. Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue Canadienne Du Vieillissement, 7(3), 218-232. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0714980800007935
  76. Twining-Ward, L., & Twining-Ward, T. (1996). Tourist destination development: The case of Bornholm and Gotland. Bymarken: Research Centre of Bornholm, [Unit of Tourism Research]
  77. Untong, A., Ramos, V., Kaosa-Ard, M., & Rey-Maquieira, J. (2015). Tourism demand analysis of Chinese arrivals in Thailand. Tourism Economics, 21(6), 1221-1234. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2015.0520
  78. UNWTO Workshop on Chinese Outbound Tourism Market. (2018). UNWTO. Retrieved, from https://www.unwto.org/archive/asia/event/unwto-workshop-chinese-outbound-tourism-market
  79. Vergori, A. S. (2012). Forecasting tourism demand: The role of seasonality. Tourism Economics, 18(5), 915-930. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2012.0153
  80. Vergori, A. S. (2017). Patterns of seasonality and tourism demand forecasting. Tourism Economics, 23(5), 1011-1027. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816616656418
  81. Weaver, D., & Oppermann, M. (2000). Tourism management. Milton: John Wiley & Sons.
  82. Weidner, S. (2006). Seasonality in tourism: A review of seasonality of hotel accommodation in New Zealand, seminar paper, Akademische Schriftenreihe, Bd. p. V122991. Norderstedt, Germany: GRIN Verlag.
  83. World Tourism Organization. (2019). Guidelines for success in the Chinese outbound tourism market, UNWTO. Retrieved, from https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284421138
  84. Yacoumis, J. (1980). Tackling seasonality : The case of Sri Lanka. International Journal of Tourism Management, 1(2), 84-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/0143-2516(80)90031-6