• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computational and Applied Mathematics Conference
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• 2002.09a
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• pp.12-12
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• 2002

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.101-112
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• 1999

In this paper variable bit rate VBR Moving Picture Experts Group (MPEG) coded full-motion video traffic is modeled by a nonlinear time-series process. The threshold autoregressive (TAR) process is of particular interest. The TAR model is comprised of a set of autoregressive (AR) processes that are switched between amplitude sub-regions. To model the dynamics of the switching between the sub-regions a selection of amplitude dependent thresholds and a delay value is required. To this end, an efficient and accurate TAR model construction algorithm is developed to model VBR MPEG-coded video traffic. The TAR model is shown to accurately represent statistical characteristics of the actual full-motion video trace. Furthermore. in simulations for the bit-loss rate actual and TAR traces show good agreement.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.155-162
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• 2010

In this paper we propose a doubly penalized kernel method which estimates both the mean function and the variance function simultaneously by kernel machines for heteroscedastic autoregressive data. We also present the model selection method which employs the cross validation techniques for choosing the hyper-parameters which aect the performance of proposed method. Simulated examples are provided to indicate the usefulness of proposed method for the estimation of mean and variance functions.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.21-27
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• 2017

The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.88-93
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• 2001

This study discusses frequency analysis based on autoregressive (AR) time series model, and process characterization in orthogonal cutting of a fiber-matrix composite materials. A sparsely distributed idealized composite material, namely a glass reinforced polyester (GFRP) was used as workpiece. Analysis method employs a force sensor and the signals from the sensor are processed using AR time series model. The resulting pattern vectors of AR coefficients are then passed to the feature extraction block. Inside the feature extraction block, only those features that are most sensitive to different types of cutting mechanisms are selected. The experimental correlations between the different chip formation mechanisms and AR model coefficients are established.

• Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.533-541
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• 2006

We consider a autoregressive moving average process of order p and q with Markov switching coefficients and find sufficient conditions for irreducibility of the process. Identifying small sets is also examined.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.1788-1795
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• 1992

Numerical simulations have been performed to investigate various spectral estimators used in LDV signal processing. In order to simulate a particle arrival time statistics known as the doubly stochastic poisson process, an autoregressive vector model was adopted to construct a primary velocity field. The conditional Poisson process with a random rate parameter was generated through the rescaling time process using the mean value function. The direct transform based on random sampling sequences and the standard periodogram using periodically resampled data by the sample and hold interpolation were applied to obtain power spectral density functions. For low turbulent intensity flows, the direct transform with a constant Poisson intensity is in good agreement with the theoretical spectrum. The periodogram using the sample and hold sequences is better than the direct transform in the view of the stability and the weighting of the velocity bias for high data density flows. The high Reynolds stress and high fluctuation of the transverse velocity component affects the velocity bias which increases the distortion of spectral components in the direct transform.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.809-816
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• 2011

A tree-indexed autoregressive(AR) process is a time series defined on a tree which is generated by a branching process and/or a deterministic splitting mechanism. This short article is concerned with conditional heteroscedastic structure of the tree-indexed AR models. It has been usual in the literature to analyze conditional mean structure (rather than conditional variance) of tree-indexed AR models. This article pursues to identify quadratic conditional heteroscedasticity inherent in various tree-indexed AR models in a unified way, and thus providing some perspectives to the future works in this area. The identical conditional variance of sisters sharing the same mother will be referred to as the branching heteroscedasticity(BH, for short). A quasilikelihood but preliminary estimation of the quadratic BH is discussed and relevant limit distributions are derived.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.280-291
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• 1987

In this paper, the linear autoregressive model of EMG signal for four basic arm functions was presented and parameters for each function were estimated. The signal identification was carried out using function discrimination algorithm. It was validated that EMG signal was a widesense stationary process and the linear autoregressive model of EMG signal was constructed through approximating it to Gaussian process. It was confined that Levinson-Durbin algoridthm is a more appropriate one than the recursive least square method for parameter estimation of the linear model. Optimal function discrimination was acquired when sampling frequency was 500Hz and two electrodes were attached to bicep and tricep muscle, respectively. Parameter values were independent of variance and the number of minimum data for function discrimination was 200. Bayesian discrimination method turned out to be a better one than parallel filtering method for functional discrimination recognition.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1984.07a
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• pp.122-124
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• 1984