• Title/Summary/Keyword: Autoregressive Process

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NEW LM TESTS FOR UNIT ROOTS IN SEASONAL AR PROCESSES

  • Oh, Yu-Jin;So, Beong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.447-456
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    • 2007
  • On the basis of marginal likelihood of the residual vector which is free of nuisance mean parameters, we propose new Lagrange Multiplier seasonal unit root tests in seasonal autoregressive process. The limiting null distribution of the tests is the standardized ${\chi}^2-distribution$. A Monte-Carlo simulation shows the new tests are more powerful than the tests based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator, especially for large number of seasons and short time spans.

Design of the Optimal Input Singals for Parameter Estimation in the ARMAX Model (ARMAX 모델의 매개변수 추정을 위한 최적 입력 신호의 설계)

  • 이석원;양흥석
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.180-185
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    • 1988
  • This paper considers the problem of the optimal input design for parameter estimtion in the ARMAX model in which the system and noise transfer function have the common denominator polynomial. Deriving the information matrix, in detail, for the assumed model structure and using the autocorrelation functin of the filtered input as design variables, it is shown that D-optimal input signal can be realized as an autoregressive moving average process. Computer simulations are carried out to show the standard-deviation reduction in the parameter estimtes using the optimal input signal.

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IMM Algorithm with NPHMM for Speech Enhancement (음성 향상을 위한 NPHMM을 갖는 IMM 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Ki-Yong
    • Speech Sciences
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.53-66
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    • 2004
  • The nonlinear speech enhancement method with interactive parallel-extended Kalman filter is applied to speech contaminated by additive white noise. To represent the nonlinear and nonstationary nature of speech. we assume that speech is the output of a nonlinear prediction HMM (NPHMM) combining both neural network and HMM. The NPHMM is a nonlinear autoregressive process whose time-varying parameters are controlled by a hidden Markov chain. The simulation results shows that the proposed method offers better performance gains relative to the previous results [6] with slightly increased complexity.

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Tool Breakage Detection in Face Milling Using a Self Organized Neural Network (자기구성 신경회로망을 이용한 면삭밀링에서의 공구파단검출)

  • 고태조;조동우
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.1939-1951
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    • 1994
  • This study introduces a new tool breakage detecting technology comprised of an unsupervised neural network combined with adaptive time series autoregressive(AR) model where parameters are estimated recursively at each sampling instant using a parameter adaptation algorithm based on an RLS(Recursive Least Square). Experiment indicates that AR parameters are good features for tool breakage, therefore it can be detected by tracking the evolution of the AR parameters during milling process. an ART 2(Adaptive Resonance Theory 2) neural network is used for clustering of tool states using these parameters and the network is capable of self organizing without supervised learning. This system operates successfully under the wide range of cutting conditions without a priori knowledge of the process, with fast monitoring time.

A Note on Exponential Inequalities of ψ-Weakly Dependent Sequences

  • Hwang, Eunju;Shin, Dong Wan
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.245-251
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    • 2014
  • Two exponential inequalities are established for a wide class of general weakly dependent sequences of random variables, called ${\psi}$-weakly dependent process which unify weak dependence conditions such as mixing, association, Gaussian sequences and Bernoulli shifts. The ${\psi}$-weakly dependent process includes, for examples, stationary ARMA processes, bilinear processes, and threshold autoregressive processes, and includes essentially all classes of weakly dependent stationary processes of interest in statistics under natural conditions on the process parameters. The two exponential inequalities are established on more general conditions than some existing ones, and are proven in simpler ways.

X Control Charts under the Second Order Autoregressive Process

  • Baik, Jai-Wook
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.82-95
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    • 1994
  • When independent individual measurements are taken both $S/c_4$ and $\bar{R}/d_2$ are unbiased estimators of the process standard deviation. However, with dependent data $\bar{R}/d_2$ is not an unbiased estimator of the process standard deviation. On the other hand $S/c_4$ is an asymptotic unbiased estimator. If there exists correlation in the data, positive(negative) correlation tends to increase(decrease) the ARL. The effect of using $\bar{R}/d_2$ is greater than $S/c_4$ if the assumption of independence is invalid. Supplementary runs rule shortens the ARL of X control charts dramatically in the presence of correlation in the data.

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Bankruptcy Prediction Model with AR process (AR 프로세스를 이용한 도산예측모형)

  • 이군희;지용희
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2001
  • The detection of corporate failures is a subject that has been particularly amenable to cross-sectional financial ratio analysis. In most of firms, however, the financial data are available over past years. Because of this, a model utilizing these longitudinal data could provide useful information on the prediction of bankruptcy. To correctly reflect the longitudinal and firm-specific data, the generalized linear model with assuming the first order AR(autoregressive) process is proposed. The method is motivated by the clinical research that several characteristics are measured repeatedly from individual over the time. The model is compared with several other predictive models to evaluate the performance. By using the financial data from manufacturing corporations in the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) list, we will discuss some experiences learned from the procedure of sampling scheme, variable transformation, imputation, variable selection, and model evaluation. Finally, implications of the model with repeated measurement and future direction of research will be discussed.

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Asymptotic distribution of estimator in INAR(1) process with negative binomial marginal (주변분포가 음이항 분포를 따르는 INAR(1)모형에서 추정량의 점근분포)

  • 김희영;박유성
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 1996
  • In this paper, we consider the first-order integer valued autoregressive(INAR(1)) model where correlation structure is similar to that of the continuous valued AR(1) process. Several methods for estimating the parameters of the INAR(1) process with negative binomial marginal are discussed. We derive asymptotic distributions of these estimators. The results of a simulation study for these estimators methods show that the estimator which we present in this paper is better than the estimator which Klimko and Nelson(1978) presented. As an application we considered the estimator of M/M/1 queue length.

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An analysis of cutting process with ultrasonic vibration by ARMA model (자동회귀-이동평균(ARMA) 모델에 의한 초음파 진동 절삭 공정의 해석)

  • I.H. Choe;Kim, J.D.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 1994
  • The cutting mechanism of ultrasonic vibration machining is characterized as two phases, that is, an impact at the cutting edge and a reduction of cutting force due to non-contact interval between tool and workpiece. In this paper, in order to identify cutting dynamics of a system with ultrasonically vibrated cutting tool, an ARMA modeling is performed on experimental cutting force signals which have a dominant effect on cutting dynamics. The aim of this study is, through Dynamic Date System methodology, to find the inherent characteristics of an ultrasonic vibration cutting process by considering natural frequency and damping coefficient. Surface roughness and stability of cutting process under ultrasonic vibration are also considered

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