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An exploration of the relationship between crime/victim characteristics and the victim's criminal damages: Variable selection based on random forest algorithm (범죄 및 피해자 특성과 범죄피해 내용의 관계 탐색: 랜덤포레스트 알고리즘에 기초한 변인선택)

  • Han, Yuhwa;Lee, Wooyeol
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 2022
  • The current study applied the random forest algorithm to Korean crime victim survey data collected biennially between 2010 and 2018 to explore the relationship between crime/victim characteristics and the victim's criminal damages. A total of 3,080 cases including gender, age (life cycle stage), type of crime, perpetrator acquisition, repeated victimization, psychological damage (depression, isolation, extreme fear, somatic symptoms, interpersonal problems, moving out to avoid people, suicidal impulses, suicide attempts), and emotional changes after victimization (changes in self-protection confidence, self-esteem, confidence in others, confidence in legal institutions, and respect for Korean legal system/law) were analyzed. Considering the features of data that are difficult to apply traditional statistical techniques, this study implemented random forest algorithms to predict crime and victim characteristics using the victim's criminal damages (psychological damage and emotional change) and selected good predictors using VSURF function in VSURF package for R. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the relationship between the type of crime and depression, extreme fear, somatic symptoms, and interpersonal problems, between perpetrator acquisition and somatic symptoms and interpersonal problems, and between repeated victimization and changes in respect for Korean legal system/law. Gender and life cycle stage (youth/adult/elderly) were found to be related to extreme fear and changes in self-protection confidence, respectively. However, more empirical evidence should be aggregated to explain the results as meaningful. The results of this study suggest that it is necessary to enhance the experts' knowledge and educate them on cases about the relationship between crime/victim characteristics and criminal damage. Strengthening their interview strategy and knowledge about law/rules were also needed to increase the effectiveness of the Korean victim assessment system.

Performance Optimization of Numerical Ocean Modeling on Cloud Systems (클라우드 시스템에서 해양수치모델 성능 최적화)

  • JUNG, KWANGWOOG;CHO, YANG-KI;TAK, YONG-JIN
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.127-143
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    • 2022
  • Recently, many attempts to run numerical ocean models in cloud computing environments have been tried actively. A cloud computing environment can be an effective means to implement numerical ocean models requiring a large-scale resource or quickly preparing modeling environment for global or large-scale grids. Many commercial and private cloud computing systems provide technologies such as virtualization, high-performance CPUs and instances, ether-net based high-performance-networking, and remote direct memory access for High Performance Computing (HPC). These new features facilitate ocean modeling experimentation on commercial cloud computing systems. Many scientists and engineers expect cloud computing to become mainstream in the near future. Analysis of the performance and features of commercial cloud services for numerical modeling is essential in order to select appropriate systems as this can help to minimize execution time and the amount of resources utilized. The effect of cache memory is large in the processing structure of the ocean numerical model, which processes input/output of data in a multidimensional array structure, and the speed of the network is important due to the communication characteristics through which a large amount of data moves. In this study, the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmarking software package, and STREAM, the memory benchmark were evaluated and compared on commercial cloud systems to provide information for the transition of other ocean models into cloud computing. Through analysis of actual performance data and configuration settings obtained from virtualization-based commercial clouds, we evaluated the efficiency of the computer resources for the various model grid sizes in the virtualization-based cloud systems. We found that cache hierarchy and capacity are crucial in the performance of ROMS using huge memory. The memory latency time is also important in the performance. Increasing the number of cores to reduce the running time for numerical modeling is more effective with large grid sizes than with small grid sizes. Our analysis results will be helpful as a reference for constructing the best computing system in the cloud to minimize time and cost for numerical ocean modeling.

The Revision of the Rules of the Workers' Party of Korea and the Organizational Changes of the 'Monolithic Guidance System of the Party Core': Focusing on Party-Government-Military Relations in Kim Jong Un Regime (조선노동당 제8차대회 당규약 개정과 '당중앙의 유일적 영도체계'의 조직적 변화: 김정은 정권의 당정군관계를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Tae-Kyung;Lee, Jung Chul;Yang, Hui
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.115-162
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    • 2022
  • The Rules of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), revised at the eighth Party Congress in 2021, reflect the Kim Jong Un regime's changes in strategic lines and ideological justifications on North Korea's socialism and communism, and its recent stances against the external environment. Moreover, they contain critical changes in the party's organizational system encompassing the central and the provinces. This study explores the organizational changes of the "monolithic guidance system of the party core" stipulated by the new party rules in January 2021, based on the analysis of the entire nine revised rules of the WPK since 1945. In the 2021 Party Congress, the Kim Jong Un regime, which officially came to power after the fourth Party Conference in 2012, has institutionalized the monolithic guidance system centered on the party core, or the head of state, Kim Jong Un. The newly set leadership and execution system, which reorganized party, government, and military organizational structure and accompanied the relevant personnel changes, was derived from the attempts for reinstating the Kim Jong Un regime as a more normalized party-state structure before its 10th year in power in April 2022. The "monolithic leadership system of the party core" established a system of "organizational leadership" through the organization of the Central Committee, directed by the Party Head, or General Secretary. The institutionalization of the new system resulted from the ten-year development of the revival of the party-state structure, which compromised the status of the military and reconfirmed the party's control of the military. This study explains the new system from the perspectives of both institutionalization and top-down unity, shedding light on the new party-military-government relations of the Kim Jong Un regime. The analysis contributes to a better understanding and forecasting of the Kim Jong Un regime's governance, which currently strengthens the monolithic leadership system as a crisis management system in the face of the "triple hardships" of sanctions, Covid and disaster.

Continuation and change of Taiwan's New Southbound Policy in the De-Sinicization: The dynamics of Balancing and Bandwagoning (탈중국을 위한 대만 남향정책의 지속과 변화: 균형과 편승의 동학)

  • Kim, Sunjae;Kim, Suhan
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.69-114
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    • 2022
  • This paper analyzes Taiwan's 「New Southbound Policy」 from the perspective of 'balancing' and 'bandwagoning' in international politics. Specifically, it examines the changes and characteristics of 'Southbound policies' that have continued since the period of the Lee Teng-hui(李登輝) administration, and examines the meaning of the New Southbound Policy promoted by the Tsai Ing-wen(蔡英文) administration. Taiwan's foreign policy has been strongly influenced by external variables such as U.S.-China relations. Previous Taiwanese governments have actively promoted Southbound policies to advance to Southeast Asian countries such as ASEAN with the aim of 'De-Sinicization', but have not achieved much results. This is because variables such as cooperative U.S.-China relations and strong checks from China played a role at the time. In this environment, Taiwan had to pursue an appropriate 'balancing' between the United States, China, and Southeast Asian countries. However, since the inauguration of the Trump administration, strategic competition between the U.S. and China has been maximized, creating a new space for Taiwan's foreign policy. This is because the U.S. valued cooperation with Taiwan in the process of embodying the 'Indo-Pacific Strategy' to curb China's rise. The New Southbound Policy promoted by the Tsai Ing-won administration is different from the existing Southbound policies in that it seeks to link with the U.S. India-Pacific Strategy and attempts to advance to South Asian countries such as India. From an international political point of view, the Tsai Ing-won administration's New Southbound Policy can be interpreted as a 'bandwagoning' to the United States, not a balanced strategy between the U.S. and China. Strategic competition between the U.S. and China is expected to intensify for a considerable period of time in the future, and honeymoon between Taiwan and the U.S. are also expected to continue. Taiwan's bandwagoning strategy, which actively pursues a link between the New Southbound Policy and the India-Pacific Strategy, is also expected to be maintained.

The Study of the Two-Dimensional Suicidal Type Based on Psychological Autopsy: A Focus on Suicidal Behaviors and Suicidal Risk Factors (한국형 심리부검 기반 이차원적 자살유형 연구: 자살행동과 자살위험요인을 중심으로)

  • Sung-pil Yook;Jonghan Sea
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.75-99
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    • 2023
  • The current study aimed to explore the suicidal behaviors and risk factors of completed suicides using psychological autopsy and use them as index variables to classify suicidal types. In addition, this study looked into the influential factors that affect each suicidal type. related to suicidal behaviors and suicidal risk factors by psychological autopsy. In addiction, the distinctions among the classes were analyzed. For this, psychological autopsies were conducted on the families and the close ones of 128 completed suicides. Then, the index variables were finally chosen for classifying suicidal types. The selected index variables for suicidal risk factors were mental disorders, suicide/self-harm, significant changes in physical appearance, marital conflict, adjustment and relationship issues at work/school, unemployment/layoff, jobless status and serious financial problems. The selected index variables for suicidal behaviors were expressing their suicidal attempts, writing suicidal notes, asking for help, the time/place/method of suicidal behavior, past suicidal/self-harm experience and the first person who witnessed the suicide. The Latent Class Analysis(LCA) and the 3-step method were used for classifying suicidal types. Then external variables(financial changes, cohabitation, existence of stressors, changes in stress level or relationships and family members with mental disorder/alchohol problems/ physical disorders, and work/school stisfaction) were applied for distinguishing classes. As a result, 5 classes(financial problems, adjustment problems, complex problems, psychiatric problems, and response to event[s]) were revealed on suicidal behaviors and 3 classes(residence- suicidal attempt- found by family, nonresidence- nonsuicidal attempt- found by acquaintances, residence- nonsuicidal attempt- found by family) were presented on suicidal risk factors. External variables such as gender, marital status, cohabitation, changes in relationships significantly differentiated among the 3 classes. Especially, class 3(residence- nonsuicidal attempt- found by family) tended to cohabit with others, were married, and had a significantly high level of interpersonal conflicts. When comparing the 5 classes of suicidal risk factors, auxiliary variables such as economic changes, cohabitation, stress, relationship changes, and family-related problems, and school/work satisfaction significantly differentiated the 5 classes. Especially class 3 (complex problems) experienced comparatively less family-related problems, but showed an aggravating level of personal stress. Suicial prevention strategies should be provided considering the characteristics of each class and the influential factors.

Analysis of the mixing effect of the confluence by the difference in water temperature between the main stream and the tributary (본류와 지류의 수온 차에 의한 합류부 혼합 양상 분석)

  • Ahn, Seol Ha;Lee, Chang Hyun;Kim, Kyung Dong;Kim, Dong Su;Ryu, Si Wan;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2023
  • The river confluence is a section in which two rivers with different topographical and hyrodynamic characteristics are combined into one, and it is a section in which rapid flow, inflow of sediments, and hydrological topographic changes occur. In the confluence section, the flow of fluid occurs due to the difference in density due to the type of material or temperature difference, which is called a density flow. It is necessary to accurately measure and observe the confluence section including a certain section of the main stream and tributaries in order to understand the mixing behavior of the water body caused by the density difference. A comprehensive analysis of this water mixture can be obtained by obtaining flow field and flow rate information, but there is a limit to understanding the mixing of water bodies with different physical properties and water quality characteristics of rivers flowing with stratigraphic flow. Therefore, this study attempts to grasp the density flow through the water temperature distribution in the confluence section. Among the extensive data of the river, vertical data and water surface data were acquired, and through this, the stratification phenomenon of the confluence was to be confirmed. It was intended to analyze the mixed pattern of the confluence by analyzing the water mixing pattern according to the water temperature difference using the vertical data obtained by measuring the repair volume by installing the ADCP on the side of the boat and measuring the real-time concentration using YSI. This study can supplement the analysis results of the existing water quality measurement in two dimensions. Based on the comparative analysis, it will be used to investigate the current status of stratified sections in the water layer and identify the mixing characteristics of the downstream section of the river.

Long-term Effects of Change in Family Structure On Achievement During Transition to Adulthood : Focusing on the effect of parental divorce/death on health condition, depression and educational attainment (가족구조의 변화가 성인이행기 발달에 미치는 영향 : 주관적 건강상태, 우울, 교육성취를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yeonwoo
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.225-246
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    • 2010
  • The family environment children are exposed to growing up greatly influences their future potential and achievements. Previous findings show that changes in family structure during childhood, particularly those resulting from divorce or death, cause lasting negative consequence that affect the child physically, psychologically, economically, and socially. Unfortunately, single-parent households are becoming increasingly common in Korea, nearly doubling to more than a million cases in the last two decades. Existing domestic and international studies of this area tend to focus on the short-term effects of growing up in a single-parent household. In addition, these studies group their samples in ways that result in findings that may be too broad or are not necessarily an accurate representation of the subjects. This study attempts to address some of these shortcomings by focusing on the long-term effects of how changes in family structure early in children's lives affect achievement during their transition to adulthood. In addition, it takes into account the development cycle the child is in at the time of family restructuring, and what kind of long-term effects result from that. In this analysis, we find that there are several cases of statistically significantly differences in domain achievement depending on the developmental stage the child was in when the parental divorce or death occurred. The findings indicate that changes in family structure during the infant/toddler period influence health condition and depression, while changes in family structure during middle-childhood and adolescence do not. Meanwhile, changes in family structure during any point in the developmental stages have negative effects on educational attainment, with the severity of these negative effects depending on when the family changes occur. The negative effect on educational attainment is most prominent when a change in family structure occurs during the infant/toddler period, followed by adolescence, then middle-childhood.

Landscape Object Classification and Attribute Information System for Standardizing Landscape BIM Library (조경 BIM 라이브러리 표준화를 위한 조경객체 및 속성정보 분류체계)

  • Kim, Bok-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.103-119
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    • 2023
  • Since the Korean government has decided to apply the policy of BIM (Building Information Modeling) to the entire construction industry, it has experienced a positive trend in adoption and utilization. BIM can reduce workloads by building model objects into libraries that conform to standards and enable consistent quality, data integrity, and compatibility. In the domestic architecture, civil engineering, and the overseas landscape architecture sectors, many BIM library standardization studies have been conducted, and guidelines have been established based on them. Currently, basic research and attempts to introduce BIM are being made in Korean landscape architecture field, but the diffusion has been delayed due to difficulties in application. This can be addressed by enhancing the efficiency of BIM work using standardized libraries. Therefore, this study aims to provide a starting point for discussions and present a classification system for objects and attribute information that can be referred to when creating landscape libraries in practice. The standardization of landscape BIM library was explored from two directions: object classification and attribute information items. First, the Korean construction information classification system, product inventory classification system, landscape design and construction standards, and BIM object classification of the NLA (Norwegian Association of Landscape Architects) were referred to classify landscape objects. As a result, the objects were divided into 12 subcategories, including 'trees', 'shrubs', 'ground cover and others', 'outdoor installation', 'outdoor lighting facility', 'stairs and ramp', 'outdoor wall', 'outdoor structure', 'pavement', 'curb', 'irrigation', and 'drainage' under five major categories: 'landscape plant', 'landscape facility', 'landscape structure', 'landscape pavement', and 'irrigation and drainage'. Next, the attribute information for the objects was extracted and structured. To do this, the common attribute information items of the KBIMS (Korean BIM Standard) were included, and the object attribute information items that vary according to the type of objects were included by referring to the PDT (Product Data Template) of the LI (UK Landscape Institute). As a result, the common attributes included information on 'identification', 'distribution', 'classification', and 'manufacture and supply' information, while the object attributes included information on 'naming', 'specifications', 'installation or construction', 'performance', 'sustainability', and 'operations and maintenance'. The significance of this study lies in establishing the foundation for the introduction of landscape BIM through the standardization of library objects, which will enhance the efficiency of modeling tasks and improve the data consistency of BIM models across various disciplines in the construction industry.

Success Factor in the K-Pop Music Industry: focusing on the mediated effect of Internet Memes (대중음악 흥행 요인에 대한 연구: 인터넷 밈(Internet Meme)의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • YuJeong Sim;Minsoo Shin
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.48-62
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    • 2023
  • As seen in the recent K-pop craze, the size and influence of the Korean music industry is growing even bigger. At least 6,000 songs are released a year in the Korean music market, but not many can be said to have been successful. Many studies and attempts are being made to identify the factors that make the hit music. Commercial factors such as media exposure and promotion as well as the quality of music play an important role in the commercial success of music. Recently, there have been many marketing campaigns using Internet memes in the pop music industry, and Internet memes are activities or trends that spread in various forms, such as images and videos, as cultural units that spread among people. Depending on the Internet environment and the characteristics of digital communication, contents are expanded and reproduced in the form of various memes, which causes a greater response to consumers. Previously, the phenomenon of Internet memes has occurred naturally, but artists who are aware of the marketing effects have recently used it as an element of marketing. In this paper, the mediated effect of Internet memes in relation to the success factors of popular music was analyzed, and a prediction model reflecting them was proposed. As a result of the analysis, the factors with the mediated effect of 'cover effect' and 'challenge effect' were the same. Among the internal success factors, there were mediated effects in "Singer Recognition," the genres of "POP, Dance, Ballad, Trot and Electronica," and among the external success factors, mediated effects in "Planning Company Capacity," "The Number of Music Broadcasting Programs," and "The Number of News Articles." Predictive models reflecting cover effects and challenge effects showed F1-score at 0.6889 and 0.7692, respectively. This study is meaningful in that it has collected and analyzed actual chart data and presented commercial directions that can be used in practice, and found that there are many success factors of popular music and the mediating effects of Internet memes.

Semantic Visualization of Dynamic Topic Modeling (다이내믹 토픽 모델링의 의미적 시각화 방법론)

  • Yeon, Jinwook;Boo, Hyunkyung;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.131-154
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    • 2022
  • Recently, researches on unstructured data analysis have been actively conducted with the development of information and communication technology. In particular, topic modeling is a representative technique for discovering core topics from massive text data. In the early stages of topic modeling, most studies focused only on topic discovery. As the topic modeling field matured, studies on the change of the topic according to the change of time began to be carried out. Accordingly, interest in dynamic topic modeling that handle changes in keywords constituting the topic is also increasing. Dynamic topic modeling identifies major topics from the data of the initial period and manages the change and flow of topics in a way that utilizes topic information of the previous period to derive further topics in subsequent periods. However, it is very difficult to understand and interpret the results of dynamic topic modeling. The results of traditional dynamic topic modeling simply reveal changes in keywords and their rankings. However, this information is insufficient to represent how the meaning of the topic has changed. Therefore, in this study, we propose a method to visualize topics by period by reflecting the meaning of keywords in each topic. In addition, we propose a method that can intuitively interpret changes in topics and relationships between or among topics. The detailed method of visualizing topics by period is as follows. In the first step, dynamic topic modeling is implemented to derive the top keywords of each period and their weight from text data. In the second step, we derive vectors of top keywords of each topic from the pre-trained word embedding model. Then, we perform dimension reduction for the extracted vectors. Then, we formulate a semantic vector of each topic by calculating weight sum of keywords in each vector using topic weight of each keyword. In the third step, we visualize the semantic vector of each topic using matplotlib, and analyze the relationship between or among the topics based on the visualized result. The change of topic can be interpreted in the following manners. From the result of dynamic topic modeling, we identify rising top 5 keywords and descending top 5 keywords for each period to show the change of the topic. Existing many topic visualization studies usually visualize keywords of each topic, but our approach proposed in this study differs from previous studies in that it attempts to visualize each topic itself. To evaluate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology, we performed an experiment on 1,847 abstracts of artificial intelligence-related papers. The experiment was performed by dividing abstracts of artificial intelligence-related papers into three periods (2016-2017, 2018-2019, 2020-2021). We selected seven topics based on the consistency score, and utilized the pre-trained word embedding model of Word2vec trained with 'Wikipedia', an Internet encyclopedia. Based on the proposed methodology, we generated a semantic vector for each topic. Through this, by reflecting the meaning of keywords, we visualized and interpreted the themes by period. Through these experiments, we confirmed that the rising and descending of the topic weight of a keyword can be usefully used to interpret the semantic change of the corresponding topic and to grasp the relationship among topics. In this study, to overcome the limitations of dynamic topic modeling results, we used word embedding and dimension reduction techniques to visualize topics by era. The results of this study are meaningful in that they broadened the scope of topic understanding through the visualization of dynamic topic modeling results. In addition, the academic contribution can be acknowledged in that it laid the foundation for follow-up studies using various word embeddings and dimensionality reduction techniques to improve the performance of the proposed methodology.