• 대한토목학회논문집
• /
• 제32권6D호
• /
• pp.587-598
• /
• 2012

성공적인 자산관리시스템의 도입은 풍부하고도 신뢰할 수 있는 데이터와 함께 시작된다. 그러나 현실에서는 알려지지 않은 다양한 원인에서 비롯되는 관측 오차들은 항상 존재하기 마련이다. 이는 관리자의 유지보수활동을 방해하며 파손과정이나 생애주기비용 예측결과의 신뢰성에도 악영향을 미친다. 무엇보다도 관리자가 자신의 손으로 직접 조사한 자료를 믿지 못하는 모순된 결과를 낳는다. 이런 현상은 도로포장관리분야에서 특히나 심각하다. 도로관리자들은 이러한 사실에 대해 충분히 인식하고 있으나, 현실적으로 오차 없는 조사를 수행한다는 것은 하나의 큰 도전이라고도 할 수 있다. 이러한 점들을 고려하여 본 연구에서는 포장표면 조사자료에 포함된 오류 및 잠재오차를 보정하기 위한 통계적 방법론을 제시하고자 하였다. 방법론으로는 오차의 구조 및 신뢰도를 고려할 수 있도록 확률분포이론에 근거한 두 가지 기법(샘플기준법과 분포기준법)을 제안하였다. 제안된 방법론은 국도에서 수집된 포장상태자료들을 활용하여 적용 가능성을 살펴보았으며, 그 결과 눈에 보이는 오류들만을 제거하는 일반적인 방법론으로는 포장자료에 포함된 불확실성을 충분히 고려할 수 없음을 확인하였다. 제안된 방법론은 도로자산관리에 필요한 다양한 분석의 신뢰성을 개선하는데 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 산경연구논집
• /
• 제9권6호
• /
• pp.77-85
• /
• 2018

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to subdivide trade transaction-centered structure in a logistics/distribution industry system to apply blockchain, to establish and resolve with which types of technology, and to provide policy direction of government institution and technology to apply blockchain in this kind of industry. Research design, data, and methodology - This study was conducted with previous researches centered on cases applied in various industry sectors on the basis of blockchain technology. Results - General fields of blockchain application include digital contents distribution, IoT platform, e-Commerce, real-estate transaction, decentralized app. development(storage), certification service, smart contract, P2P network infrastructure, publication/storage of public documents, smart voting, money exchange, payment/settlement, banking security platform, actual asset storage, stock transaction and crowd funding. Blockchain is being applied in various fields home and abroad and its application cases can be explained in the banking industry, public sector, e-Commerce, medical industry, distribution and supply chain management, copyright protection. As examined in the blockchain application cases, it is expected to establish blockchain that can secure safety through distributed ledger in trade transaction because blockchain is established and applied in various sectors of industries home and abroad. Parties concerned of trade transaction can secure visibility even in interrupted specific section when they provide it as a base for distributed ledger application in trade and establish trade transaction model by applying blockchain. In case of interrupted specific section by using distributed ledger, blockchain model of trade transaction needs to be formed to make it possible for parties concerned involved in trade transaction to secure visibility and real-time tracking. Additionally, management should be possible from the time of contract until payment, freight transfer to buyers through land, air and maritime transportation. Conclusions - In order to boost blockchain-based logistics/distribution industry, the government, institutionally, needs to back up adding legal plan of shipping, logistics and distribution, reviewing standardization of electronic switching system and coming up with blockchain-based industrial road maps. In addition, the government, technologically, has to support R&D for integration with other high technology, standardization of distribution industry's blockchain technology and manpower training to expand technology development.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제13권5호
• /
• pp.71-82
• /
• 2015

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate risk price implied from the pricing kernel of Korean stock distribution market. Recently, it is considered that the quantitative easing programs of major developed countries are contributing to a reduction in global uncertainty caused by the 2007~2009 financial crisis. If true, the risk premium as compensation for global systemic risk or economic uncertainty should show a decrease. We examine whether the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market has declined in recent years, and attempt to provide practical implications for investors to manage their portfolios more efficiently, as well as academic implications. Research design, data and methodology - To estimate the risk price, we adopt a non-parametric method; the minimum norm pricing kernel method under the LOP (Law of One Price) constraint. For the estimation, we use 17 industry sorted portfolios provided by the KRX (Korea Exchange). Additionally, the monthly returns of the 17 industry sorted portfolios, from July 2000 to June 2014, are utilized as data samples. We set 120 months (10 years) as the estimation window, and estimate the risk prices from July 2010 to June 2014 by month. Moreover, we analyze correlation between any of the two industry portfolios within the 17 industry portfolios to suggest further economic implications of the risk price we estimate. Results - According to our results, the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market shows a decline over the period of July 2010 to June 2014 with statistical significance. During the period of the declining risk price, the average correlation level between any of the two industry portfolios also shows a decrease, whereas the standard deviation of the average correlation shows an increase. The results imply that the amount of systematic risk in the Korea stock distribution market has decreased, whereas the amount of industry-specific risk has increased. It is one of the well known empirical results that correlation and uncertainty are positively correlated, therefore, the declining correlation may be the result of decreased global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, less asset correlation enables investors to build portfolios with less systematic risk, therefore the investors require lower risk premiums for the efficient portfolio, resulting in the declining risk price. Conclusions - Our results may provide evidence of reduction in global systemic risk or economic uncertainty in the Korean stock distribution market. However, to defend the argument, further analysis should be done. For instance, the change of global uncertainty could be measured with funding costs in the global money market; subsequently, the relation between global uncertainty and the price of risk might be directly observable. In addition, as time goes by, observations of the risk price could be extended, enabling us to confirm the relation between the global uncertainty and the effect of quantitative easing. These topics are beyond our scope here, therefore we reserve them for future research.

• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제30권2호
• /
• pp.243-257
• /
• 2017

본 논문에서는 옵션의 가격을 결정하기 위해 사용될 수 있는 몇 가지 근사적인 방법들을 수치적으로 비교하였다. 헤르미트 다항식 계열의 Edgeworth 확장과 A-type Gram-Charlier 방법, C-type Gram-Charlier 방법, normal inverse gaussian (NIG) 분포를 이용하는 방법, 그리고 비선형 회귀를 이용한 점근적 근사방법이 그것이다. 이 방법들을 위험중립 확률측도 하에서 수익률의 분포함수를 근사하여 옵션가격을 계산하는 방식과 옵션의 근사가격식을 먼저 구하고 모수를 추정하여 가격을 계산하는 두 가지 방식을 사용하여 비교하였다. 모의실험에서는 확률변동성 모형에서 많이 사용되는 Heston 모형과 레비확률과정에서 좋은 적합도를 보이는 NIG 모형을 이용하여 자료를 생성하였고, 실제 자료로는 KOSPI200 콜옵션을 이용하였다. 모의실험과 실제 자료분석의 결과, 근사적 가격식을 먼저 구하는 방식이 좀 더 우수한 성능을 보였고 그 가운데 A-type Gram-Charlier와 비선형 회귀를 이용한 점근적 근사방법이 좋은 성능을 보였으며, 분포함수를 추정하여 옵션가격을 계산하는 경우 NIG분포를 이용하는 것이 상대적으로 좋은 결과를 보였다.

• 재무관리연구
• /
• 제26권3호
• /
• pp.139-169
• /
• 2009

본 연구는 새로운 VaR 추정모형으로 수정 VaR(modified VaR)을 소개하고, 수정 VaR의 예측성과를 역사적 시뮬레이션 모형이나 Riskmetrics 등 전통적인 모형들과 비교하였다. 수정 VaR은 분산뿐만 아니라 왜도, 첨도를 VaR 계산에 고려함으로써 금융자산분포의 비대칭성과 꼬리가 굵은 성질이 위험측정치에 반영될 수 있는 장점이 있다. 수정 VaR은 6개국의 주가지수 수익률을 이용한 표본외 예측성과검증에서 다른 모형들에 비해 가장 우수한 예측성과를 보였다. VaR 예측의 독립성검증에서는 Riskmetrics와 GARCH 모형이 우수한 것으로 나타났으나 수정 VaR에 대해 서도 독립성이 기각되지 않았다. 특정한 표본을 이용한 예측성과분석에서 나타날 수 있는 data snooping 문제를 해결하기 위해 skew t 분포를 이용한 시뮬레이션분석을 시도하였는데, 시뮬레이션 검증결과에서도 수정 VaR이 가장 양호한 예측성과를 보였다. 포트폴리오 VaR에 대한 표본외 예측성과에서도 수정 VaR은 단일변량모형이나 다변량 정규분포모형에 비해 우수한 성과를 보였다. 다변량 수정 VaR은 포트폴리오 구성자산 간의 선형상관관계뿐 아니라 공왜도(coskewness)와 공첨도(cokurtosis)를 통한 비선형 상호의존관계도 고려할 수 있다는 점에서 포트폴리오 위험에 대한 우수한 예측성과는 당연한 결과라고 할 수 있다. 6개국 주가지수로 구성된 포트폴리오의 VaR을 component VaR로 분할한 실증분석에서는 포트폴리오 VaR의 분할결과가 적극적인 위험관리와 포트폴리오 최적화를 위한 자산재배분에 효과적으로 활용될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제26권6호
• /
• pp.1479-1494
• /
• 2015

최적의 포트폴리오를 선택하기 위한 연구는 평균-분산모형을 시작으로 다양하게 진행되어 왔다. 과거에는 위험자산의 확률분포가 정규분포를 따른다고 가정하여, 투자자가 보유한 위험자산의 분산이 최소화되고 기대수익률이 최대가 되도록 포트폴리오를 구성하도록 하였다. 그러나 실제 위험자산의 분포에는 극단적인 사건들이 많이 발생하기 때문에 정규분포보다 훨씬 꼬리부분이 두꺼우며, 또한 왼쪽꼬리와 오른쪽꼬리가 대칭적이지도 않은 것으로 밝혀졌다. 이에 본 논문에서는 위험자산의 확률분포를 극단치 이론에서 널리 사용되는 일반화 파레토분포 (GPD)로 모형화하였고 체계적인 위험의 추정을 위하여 VaR를 이용하는 한편, 최적의 포트폴리오의 탐색을 위해서는 유전자 알고리즘을 사용하였다. 제안 방법의 적정성을 확인하기 위해 국내 증시에서 최적 포트폴리오를 탐색해 보았으며, 그 결과 GPD로 투자자산의 위험을 추정하였을 때 가장 좋은 결과를 얻을 수 있었다.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제13권9호
• /
• pp.37-45
• /
• 2015

Purpose - This paper's aim is to investigate whether or not gross profitability explains the cross-sectional variation of the stock returns in the Korean stock market. Gross profitability is an alternative profitability measure proposed by Novy-Marx in 2013 to predict cross-sectional variation of stock returns in the US. He shows that the gross profitability adds explanatory power to the Fama-French 3 factor model. Interestingly, gross profitability is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. By confirming the gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market, we may provide some implications regarding the well-known value premium. In addition, our empirical results may provide opportunities for the fund distribution industry to promote brand new styles of funds. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical analysis, we collect monthly market prices of all the companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) of the Korea Exchanges (KRX). Our sample period covers July1994 to December2014. The data from the company financial statementsare provided by the financial information company WISEfn. First, using Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression, we investigate the relation between gross profitability and stock return performance. For robustness in analyzing the performance of the gross profitability strategy, we consider value weighted portfolio returns as well as equally weighted portfolio returns. Next, using Fama-French 3 factor models, we examine whether or not the gross profitability strategy generates excess returns when firmsize and the book-to-market ratio are controlled. Finally, we analyze the effect of firm size and the book-to-market ratio on the gross profitability strategy. Results - First, through the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression, we show that gross profitability has almost the same explanatory power as the book-to-market ratio in explaining the cross-sectional variation of the Korean stock market. Second, we find evidence that gross profitability is a statistically significant variable for explaining cross-sectional stock returns when the size and the value effect are controlled. Third, we show that gross profitability, which is positively correlated with stock returns and firm size, is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. From the perspective of portfolio management, our results imply that since the gross profitability strategy is a distinctive growth strategy, value strategies can be improved by hedging with the gross profitability strategy. Conclusions - Our empirical results confirm the existence of a gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market. From the perspective of the fund distribution industry, the gross profitability portfolio is worthy of attention. Since the value strategy portfolio returns are negatively correlated with the gross profitability strategy portfolio returns, by mixing both portfolios, investors could be better off without additional risk. However, the profitable firms are dissimilar from the value firms (high book-to-market ratio firms); therefore, an alternative factor model including gross profitability may help us understand the economic implications of the well-known anomalies such as value premium, momentum, and low volatility. We reserve these topics for future research.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권12호
• /
• pp.1089-1097
• /
• 2020

Nowadays, technology and information are developing rapidly. It compels an organization or a company strive to excel in its field. In the Industrial Revolution 4.0 era, companies must maintain their assets and technology to face the competition. One asset that should be paid attention to is human resources. Human resource has two important variables, namely Organizational Citizenship Behavior (OCB) and Employee Engagement (EE). This study aims to analyze the relationship between OCB and EE on Employee Performance (EP) in the manufacturing industry in Tangerang. This study is conducted using a quantitative method with 200 respondents. The data is collected by distributing questionnaires to respondents, which is then analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with AMOS 23 software. The result of this study indicates that OCB has a significant effect on EE and EP. This study also finds that employee engagement has a significant effect on employee performance and can mediate the relationship between OCB and EP. From these results, the implication that can be taken is that the manufacturing industry in Tangerang must pay attention to their employees for them to develop OCB and EE, and eventually increase their performance towards the organization.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권12호
• /
• pp.909-917
• /
• 2020

The research aims to analyze the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors that affect insurance company's financial performance. The research explores the variables that influence the financial performance of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)' insurance companies. The analysis for determining financial performance considers the following variables: the firm's age, retention ratio, capital adequacy, underwriting risk/loss ratio, financial-leverage, reinsurance dependency, and macro-economic factors such as GDP per capita, inflation rate considered as independent factors. The return-on-asset (ROA) is the key measuring indicator; it is regarded as the dependent variable for financial performance measures. The research focuses on secondary information obtained from insurance companies' financial statements. The researcher targeted 18 insurance companies listed on the UAE stock exchanges for study purposes. The research examines the overall factors that influence the financial performance of an insurance company. For analysis of data, software package of social sciences (SPSS version 20) is used. The studies used correlation and multiple linear regression analysis to determine financial performance and their effects. The analysis suggests that there are important and constructive relationships between the size, capital adequacy, and reinsurance dependency, while loss ratio, retention ratio, and financial leverage indicate a major negative relationship. And there's no link between GDP per capita and inflation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권12호
• /
• pp.739-748
• /
• 2020

The study aims to estimate the effect of current ratio (CR), current liability to inventory (CLI), total asset turnover (TAT), net profit margin (NPM), sales growth (SG), and company size (FS) on profit growth (PG). The research population was 18 companies in the Food and Beverage (F&B) sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2014-2018. The data estimation method uses the common effect panel data regression model. The empirical findings show that the CR and CLI ratios have a negative effect on PG, while the TAT, NPM, and SG ratios have a positive effect. Company size is a factor that does not affect the growth of company profits. The results of the study imply that an increase in company profits can be achieved if the company operates efficiently and with low liquidity to encourage higher sales growth. The limitations of the research are as follows: first, this research considers only one type of industry, hence the results of this study would not be the same if applied to another type of industry. Second, the author observes profit growth by using the company's financial ratios and size and ignores other factors that may affect profit growth, for example, the number of employees, total net sales, and market capitalization.