• Title/Summary/Keyword: Annual maximum rainfall

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Analysis of the Crop Damage Area Related to Flood by Climate Change Using a Constrained Multiple Linear Regression Model (구속 다중선형회귀 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 농작물 홍수 피해 면적 분석)

  • Kim, Myojeong;Kim, Gwangseob
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the characteristics of crop damage area by flooding for 113 middle range watersheds during 2000-2016 were analyzed and future crop damage area by flooding were analyzed using 13 GCM outputs such as hourly maximum rainfall, 10-min maximum rainfall, number of days of 80 mm/day, daily rainfall maximum, annual rainfall amount associated with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and watershed characteristic data such as DEM, urbanization ratio, population density, asset density, road improvement ratio, river improvement ratio, drainage system improvement ratio, pumping capacity, detention basin capacity, and crop damage area by flooding. A constrained multiple linear regression model was used to construct the relationships between the crop damage area by flooding and other variables. Future flood index related to crop damage may mainly increase in the Mankyung watershed, Southwest part of Youngsan and Sumjin river basin and Southern part of Nackdong river basin. Results are useful to identify watersheds which need to establish strategies for responding to future flood damage.

Application of the Large-scale Climate Ensemble Simulations to Analysis on Changes of Precipitation Trend Caused by Global Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 강수 특성 변화 분석을 위한 대규모 기후 앙상블 모의자료 적용)

  • Kim, Youngkyu;Son, Minwoo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2022
  • Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

The Analysis for Flood Damage on Nam-sa Down Stream Region (남사천 하류지역 홍수피해 분석)

  • 김가현;이영대;서진호;민일규
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2001
  • Where no records are available at a site, a preliminary estimate may be made from relations between floods and catchment chatacteristics. A number of these chatacteristics were chosen for testing and were measured for those catchments where mean annual flood estimates were available. Although the improvement using extended data in regression of flood estimates on catchment characteristics was small, this may be due to the limitations of the regression model. When an individual short term record is to be extended, more detailed attention can be given; an example is presented of the technique which should be adopted in practice, particularly when a short term record covers a period which is known to be biassed. A method of extending the peaks over a threshold series is presented with a numerical example. The extension of records directly from rainfall by means of a conceptual model is discussed, although the application of such methods is likely to be limited by lack of recording raingauge information. Methods of combining information from various sources are discussed in terms of information from catchment characteristics supplemented by records. but are generally applicable to different sources of information. The application of this technique to estimating the probable maximum flood requires more conservative assumptions about the antecedent condition, storm profile and unit hydrograph. It is suggested that the profile and catchment wetness index at the start of the design duration should be based on the assumption that the estimated maximum rainfall occurs in all durations centered on the storm peak.

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An Evaluation of Landslide Probability by Maximum Continuous Rainfall in Gangwon, Korea (강원지역의 최대연속강우량에 의한 산사태 발생가능성 평가)

  • Yang, In-Tae;Park, Jae-Kook;Jeon, Woo-Hyun;Chun, Ki-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2007
  • Most natural disasters in Korea are caused by meteorological natural phenomena, which include storms, heavy rains, heavy snow, hail, tidal waves, and earthquakes. Rainfall is the most frequent cause of disasters and accounts for about 80% of all disasters. Particularly in recent years, Korea has seen annual occurrences of natural disasters associated with landslides (slope and retaining wall collapse and burying) due to meteorological causes from the increasing intensity of heavy rains including local heavy rainfalls. In Korea, it is critical to analyze the characteristics of landslides according to rainfall characteristics and to take necessary and proper measures for them. This study assessed the possibility of landslides in the Gangwon region with a geographic information system by taking into account the inducer factors of landslides and the maximum continuous rainfall of each area. It also analyzed areas susceptible to landslides and checked the distribution of landslide-prone areas by considering the rainfall characteristics of those areas.

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Probability of performance failure of storm sewer according to accumulation of debris (토사 적체에 따른 우수관의 성능불능확률)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.509-517
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    • 2010
  • Statistical distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea was analyzed and applied to the reliability model which can calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. After the analysis, it was found that distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea is well matched with Gumbel distribution. Rational equation was used to estimate the load and Manning's equation was used to estimate the capacity in reliability function to calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. Reliability analysis was performed by developed model applying to the real storm sewer. It was found that probability of performance failure is abruptly increased if the diameter is smaller than certain size. Therefore, cleaning the inside of storm sewer to maintain the original diameter can be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of performance failure. In the present study, probability of performance failure according to accumulation of debris in storm sewer was calculated. It was found that increasing the amount of debris seriously decrease the capacity of storm sewer and significantly increase the probability of performance failure.

Relationship between Flood Characteristics and Underground Inundation (홍수특성과 지하공간침수의 관계 검토)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Lee, Keon-Haeng;Kyoung, Min-Soo;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.02a
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    • pp.367-370
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    • 2007
  • In recent, the utilization of underground in urban area is increased as subway, store, and others but we have done a few studies for the inundation of underground due to flooding. So, we investigate the examples of underground inundation and the causes of inundation for flood events. And the relationship between flood characteristics and underground inundation is analyzed through the frequency of rainfall which is made by annual multi maximum series. As a result, most of underground is inundated by high frequency of rainfall. And there are some cases that the underground is inundated by low frequency of rainfall because of poor drainage system and characteristics of location.

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Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfall using Higher Probability Weighted Moments (고차확률가중모멘트에 의한 극치강우의 빈도분석)

  • Lee, Soon-Hyuk;Maeng, Sung-Jin;Ryoo, Kyong-Sik;Kim, Byeong-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.511-514
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to estimate the design rainfall by the determination of best fitting order for Higher Probability Weighted Moments of the annual maximum series according to consecutive duration at sixty-five rainfall stations in Korea. Design rainfalls were obtained by generalized extreme value distribution which was selected to be suitable distribution in 4 applied distributions and by L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moment. The best fitting order for Higher Probability Weighted Moments was determined with the confidence analysis of estimated design rainfall.

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Prediction of Return Periods of Sewer Flooding Due to Climate Change in Major Cities (기후변화에 따른 주요 도시의 하수도 침수 재현기간 예측)

  • Park, Kyoohong;Yu, Soonyu;Byambadorj, Elbegjargal
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2016
  • In this study, rainfall characteristics with stationary and non-stationary perspectives were analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Gumbel distribution models with rainfall data collected in major cities of Korea to reevaluate the return period of sewer flooding in those cities. As a result, the probable rainfall for GEV and Gumbel distribution in non-stationary state both increased with time(t), compared to the stationary probable rainfall. Considering the reliability of ${\xi}_1$, a variable reflecting the increase of storm events due to climate change, the reliability of the rainfall duration for Seoul, Daegu, and Gwangju in the GEV distribution was over 90%, indicating that the probability of rainfall increase was high. As for the Gumbel distribution, Wonju, Daegu, and Gwangju showed the higher reliability while Daejeon showed the lower reliability than the other cities. In addition, application of the maximum annual rainfall change rate (${\xi}_1{\cdot}t$) to the location parameter made possible the prediction of return period by time, therefore leading to the evaluation of design recurrence interval.

Proposal and Application of Water Deficit-Duration-Frequency Curve using Threshold Level Method (임계수준 방법을 이용한 물 부족량-지속기간-빈도 곡선의 제안 및 적용)

  • Sung, Jang Hyun;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.11
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    • pp.997-1005
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    • 2014
  • This study evaluated hydrological drought the using the annual minimum flow and the annual maximum deficit method and proposed the new concept of water deficit-duration-frequency curves similar to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves. The analysis results of the annual minimum flow, the return periods of hydrological drought in the most duration of 1989 and 1996yr were the longest. The analysis results of the annual maximum deficit, the return periods of 60-days and 90-day deficit which are relatively short duration were the longest in 1995yr, about 35-year, Hydrological drought lasted longer was in 1995, the return period was about 20-year. Though duration as well as magnitude is a key variable in drought analysis, it was found that the method using the annual minimum flow duration not distinguish duration.

Studies on the Some Hydrological Quantities of Principal Locations in the Basin of Geum River(I) (금강유역(錦江流域) 주요지점(主要地点)의 제(諸) 수문량(水文量)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(I))

  • Ahn, Byoung Gi;Cho, Seung Seup
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.281-300
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    • 1975
  • The precipitation data and water level data in twenty-four sampling places, to investigate same hydrological quantities along the basin of Geum River, have been analyzed, and the findings for the first report are summarized as follows. 1. The mean annual precipitation in the basin of Geum River is of 1203mm, and the areal weight of areal rainfall by Thiessen's method shows as Table 1. 2. The areas where have maximum annual precipitation of 1501 to 2000mm, are seventeen placed among twentyfour gauging stations, and it is founded to be the highest rate with 71 percents. The precipitation of below 1500mm is measured in the other three statinons, and that of above 2001mm in four stations, too. 3. The areas where have maximum rainfall of 201 to 300mm within a day, are fifteen places, and that comes in the highest rate of distribution with 63 percents. 4. As to distribution of the places with maximum rainfall of below and above 300mm within two days, it shows respectively 50 percents. 5. The areas where have maximum rainfall of 301 to 400mm within three days, are fifteen places, and it is the highest rate of distribution with 63 percents. 6. The fourteen places have maximum rainfall of 401 to 600mm within a continuous day, it is the highest rate of distribution with 58 percents. 7. Table 5 shows probable maximum rainfall within a day, and it does the most rainfall a long the upper stream of Daecheong dam site around Muju, and the next shows in the areas around Ganggyeung, Gongju and Buyeu. 8. During irrigation period on paddy corp, for 100 days from early ten days in June to early ten days in September the areas where have rainfall of 601 to 800mm are sixteen places, and it is the highest rate of distribution with 76 percents, as Table 6 9. The areas where have effective rainfall of 501 to 600mm, are fifteen places, and it is the highest rate of distribution with 71 percents. Thirteen places have the effective ratio of 66 to 75 percents, and it means 62 percents of distribution, and the next, 76 to 85 percents in the seven places, and it comes 33 percents. 10. The areas where have probable effective rainfall of 401 to 500mm, are fourteen places, which is about 100mm less than mean effective rainfall in each area, and that comes 67 percents of distribution. 11. A particular year can not be appointed as once -in-10 year drought in the same year as a whole in the basin of Geum River. 12. The basin of Geum River, s/S being 0.53 to 0.74, has relatively proper conditions in the aspect of water resources.

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