Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Analysis of the Crop Damage Area Related to Flood by Climate Change Using a Constrained Multiple Linear Regression Model

구속 다중선형회귀 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 농작물 홍수 피해 면적 분석

  • Kim, Myojeong (Korea Infrastructure Safety Corporation) ;
  • Kim, Gwangseob (School of Architectural, Civil, Environmental, and Energy Eng., Kyungpook National University)
  • Received : 2019.09.11
  • Accepted : 2020.02.04
  • Published : 2020.03.31
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Abstract

In this study, the characteristics of crop damage area by flooding for 113 middle range watersheds during 2000-2016 were analyzed and future crop damage area by flooding were analyzed using 13 GCM outputs such as hourly maximum rainfall, 10-min maximum rainfall, number of days of 80 mm/day, daily rainfall maximum, annual rainfall amount associated with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and watershed characteristic data such as DEM, urbanization ratio, population density, asset density, road improvement ratio, river improvement ratio, drainage system improvement ratio, pumping capacity, detention basin capacity, and crop damage area by flooding. A constrained multiple linear regression model was used to construct the relationships between the crop damage area by flooding and other variables. Future flood index related to crop damage may mainly increase in the Mankyung watershed, Southwest part of Youngsan and Sumjin river basin and Southern part of Nackdong river basin. Results are useful to identify watersheds which need to establish strategies for responding to future flood damage.

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References

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