• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.52-64
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on air passenger demand and provide useful information to airport managers and policymakers. Therefore, using the quarterly macroeconomic indicators from 2002 to 2017, the relationship with air passenger demand was demonstrated by multiple regression analysis. In the previous studies, they used GDP, Korea Treasury Bond, KOSPI index, USD/KRW Exchange Rate, and WTI Crude Oil Price variables. In this study, we used the Coincident Composite Index, Employment Rate, Consumer Sentiment Index, and Private Consumption Rate used as additional variables. It has confirmed that if the consumption of research results expands or the economic environment is right, it will affect the increase in international passengers. In other words, it confirmed that the overall economic situation acts as the main factor determining air passenger demand. It confirmed that the economic environment at the past has a significant impact on air passenger demand.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.137-143
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• 2018

우리나라의 항공여객 운송실적은 지속적으로 성장하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 항공여객 운송 실적의 성장추이를 확인하기 위해 시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 항공여객 수요예측 모델을 제안하였다. 항공여객 수요예측은 항공여객 운송수요를 종속변수로 하고 국제항공유가, GDP 및 환율을 외생변수로 하여 시뮬레이션 하였다. 모델의 정확도는 MAPE와 $R^2$를 이용하여 검증하였고 검증 결과 제안된 예측모델은 정확한 예측모델로 확인되었다. 수요예측 결과 국적 항공사의 항공여객 처리실적은 앞으로도 지속적으로 성장하며, 특히 저비용항공사의 수송 분담률이 크게 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 향후 한국에 진출해 있는 외국계 항공사들의 내국인 처리 실적 및 국적항공사들의 Alliance 체결에 따른 실적 등을 추가하여 보다 정확한 항공여객 수요예측 모델을 제안하고자 한다.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.98-105
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• 2019

In the past 30 years, our aviation demand has been growing continuously. As such, the importance of the demand forecasting field is increasing. In this study, the factors influencing Korea's international air demand were selected, and the international air demand was analyzed, forecasted and reviewed through OLS multiple regression analysis. As a result, passenger demand was affected by GDP per capita, oil price and exchange rate, while cargo demand was affected by GDP per capita and private consumption growth rate. In particular, passenger demand was analyzed to be sensitive to temporary external shocks, and cargo demand was more affected by economic variables than temporary external shocks. Demand forecasting, OLS multiple regression analysis, passenger demand, cargo demand, transient external shocks, economic variables.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.43-50
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• 2019

The aviation demand forecast field has been actively studied along with the recent growth of the aviation market. In this study, the demand for domestic passenger demand and freight demand was estimated through cross-validation method. As a result, passenger demand is influenced by private consumption growth rate, oil price, and exchange rate. Freight demand is affected by GDP per capita, private consumption growth rate, and oil price. In particular, passenger demand is characterized by temporary external shocks, and freight demand is more affected by economic variables than temporary shocks.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.65-75
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• 2022

This study aims to forecast of Air Passenger Demand between South Korea and North Korea using the system dynamics analysis methodology that is based on the system thinking. System dynamics is not only a tool that makes the systematic thought to a model but also a computer program-based analysis methodology that mathematically models the system varying according to time variation. This study analyzed the causal relationship based on the interrelation among variables and structured them by considering various variables that affect aviation cooperation from the perspective of Air passenger demand forecasting. In addition, based on the causal relationship between variables, this study also completed the causal loop diagram that forms a feedback loop, constructed the stock-flow diagram of Inter-Korean model using Vensim program. In this study, Air passenger demand was using by the simulation variable value into System Dynamics. This study was difficult to reflect the various variables constituting the North Korea environment, and there is a limit to the occurrence of events in North Korea.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.27-34
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• 2000

이 연구는 최근 소비자 행동분석에서 많이 사용되고 있는 설문조사에 의한 Stated Preference의 방법론을 채택하여 항공여객수요의 가격탄력성을 분석하였다. 우리나라의 국내선 항공은 항공요금이 지금가지 인가제나 신고제로 규제되어 왔기 때문에 통상의 총량자료에 의한 회귀분석으로는 가격탄력성 도출이 어려우며 특별한 분석방법론을 필요로 한다. 이 연구에서는 항공여객에 대한 설문조사로 항공편과 철도, 버스, 승용차 등 대체교통수단과의 선택 여부에 대한 자료를 입수한 후, SP기법에 따른 Logit model로 분석하여 항공수요의 가격탄력성과 대체교통수단으로의 모드별 쉐어 변환율을 Sample Enumeration 방식에 의해 추정하였다 대체 가격탄력성은 -0.6∼-0.9의 값으로 밝혀졌으며 대체교통수단으로는 주로 철도를 선택하고 일부 버스를 선택하며 승용차는 거의 선택하지 않는 것으로 조사되었다.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.89-100
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• 2017

In order for the international aviation community to efficiently and safely manage the gradual increase of air passenger demand, direction suggestions of airport traffic prediction based on future airport capacity requirements, airport design and infrastructure establishment is utilized by airport traffic data that is m comparable internationally. It is a global trend to pursue more efficient airport operating system structure to accept air passenger demand through more realistic comparable data in order to escape from the structure of reckless airport establishment and infrastructure composition based on passenger demand predictions referring to simple statistical data that has existed in the past. This study aimed to seek effective operational measures for the New Jeju airport scheduled to be opened in 2025 by time-series analysis. This study also analysed airport operation strategies, air traffic distribution strategies, cargo volume increase rates and its effectiveness of airports adopting the multi-airport system that have similar operational practices and geographical conditions. This study sought the most appropriate multi airport system application measures for New Jeju airport to promote efficiency and international competitiveness.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.83-91
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• 2009

본 연구의 목적은 평양 및 백두산 관광 등 남북한의 교류에서 발생하는 항공여객과 항공물동량 수요를 예측함으로써 향후 남북한간 교류협력 활성화시 원활한 항공교통서비스를 제공할 수 있도록 하는 데 있다. 본 연구에서는 남북한간 교류협력 시나리오의 전개에 따라 항공수요가 획기적으로 도약할 수 있는 상황을 상정하고, 기술적으로는 회귀분석의 툴을 적용하였다. 회귀분석을 통해 전체 교류인원을 예측한 후 전체 교류인원에 대한 항공교통의 비중을 적용하여 항공여객 수요를 예측하였다. 또한, 예측된 항공여객 수요로부터 추정한 항공물동량을 포함하여 공항 및 노선별 항공편을 예측하였다.

• 한국농촌건축학회논문집
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.9-18
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• 2014

Small and medium-sized local airports have suffered from chronic operating deficits due to many factors except for large airports in Incheon, Gimpo, Jeju and Gimhae. These small and medium-sized local airports have currently been degraded to inefficient airports handling the significantly lower airline demand than their carrying capacities. In this context, this study conducted a survey on the actual conditions of the airline demand in small and medium-sized local airports for the last 10 years after the opening of the Korea Train eXpress and investigated the causes and actual conditions of an increase and a decrease in the airline demand. In addition, it analyzed the functionality, convenience and economic feasibility, competition elements in comparison with other means of transportation, and the actual competitive conditions of local airports. It investigated facility improvements through a field visit for local airports and analyzed the performance rate of passenger demands and the use rate of terminal facilities according to a change in the airline demand. This study aimed to provide basic data in the architectural planning field, needed to establish a plan for the airport revitalization of local airports with the results of an analysis on the actual conditions of small and medium-sized local airports.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.1007-1017
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• 2009

본 연구는 최근에 활발히 연구가 진행 중인 항공수요 예측 분야에서 사용되는 계절형 ARIMA 모형과 다변량 계절형 시계열 모형과의 성능을 비교한 것이다. 본 연구에서는 국제 여객 수요와 국제 화물 수요 예측을 위하여 실제 자료를 이용하여 비교한 결과 다변량 계절형 시계열 모형이 예측의 정확도 면에서 기존의 일변량 모형보다 우수함을 보였다.