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http://dx.doi.org/10.12985/ksaa.2019.27.1.043

Domestic air demand forecast using cross-validation  

Lim, Jae-Hwan (경희대학교 경제학과)
Kim, Young-Rok (한서대학교 항공운항관리학과)
Choi, Yun-Chul (한서대학교 항공산업대학원)
Kim, Kwang-Il (신라대학교 항공운항학과)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics / v.27, no.1, 2019 , pp. 43-50 More about this Journal
Abstract
The aviation demand forecast field has been actively studied along with the recent growth of the aviation market. In this study, the demand for domestic passenger demand and freight demand was estimated through cross-validation method. As a result, passenger demand is influenced by private consumption growth rate, oil price, and exchange rate. Freight demand is affected by GDP per capita, private consumption growth rate, and oil price. In particular, passenger demand is characterized by temporary external shocks, and freight demand is more affected by economic variables than temporary shocks.
Keywords
aviation demand forecast; cross-validation; passenger demand; freight demand; temporary external shocks; economic variables;
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