• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.52-64
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on air passenger demand and provide useful information to airport managers and policymakers. Therefore, using the quarterly macroeconomic indicators from 2002 to 2017, the relationship with air passenger demand was demonstrated by multiple regression analysis. In the previous studies, they used GDP, Korea Treasury Bond, KOSPI index, USD/KRW Exchange Rate, and WTI Crude Oil Price variables. In this study, we used the Coincident Composite Index, Employment Rate, Consumer Sentiment Index, and Private Consumption Rate used as additional variables. It has confirmed that if the consumption of research results expands or the economic environment is right, it will affect the increase in international passengers. In other words, it confirmed that the overall economic situation acts as the main factor determining air passenger demand. It confirmed that the economic environment at the past has a significant impact on air passenger demand.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.137-143
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• 2018

Korea's air passenger traffic has been growing steadily. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model of air passenger demand to ascertain the growth trend of air passenger transportation performance in Korea. We conducted a simulation based on System Dynamics with the demand as a dependent variable, and international oil prices, GDP and exchange rates as exogenous variables. The accuracy of the model was verified using MAPE and $R^2$, and the proposed prediction model was verified as an accurate prediction model. As a result of the demand forecast, it is predicted that the air passenger demand in Korea will continue to grow, and the share of low cost carriers will increase sharply. The addition of the Korean transportation performance of foreign carriers in Korea and the transportation performance of Korean passengers due to the alliance of airlines will provide a more accurate forecast of passenger demand.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.98-105
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• 2019

In the past 30 years, our aviation demand has been growing continuously. As such, the importance of the demand forecasting field is increasing. In this study, the factors influencing Korea's international air demand were selected, and the international air demand was analyzed, forecasted and reviewed through OLS multiple regression analysis. As a result, passenger demand was affected by GDP per capita, oil price and exchange rate, while cargo demand was affected by GDP per capita and private consumption growth rate. In particular, passenger demand was analyzed to be sensitive to temporary external shocks, and cargo demand was more affected by economic variables than temporary external shocks. Demand forecasting, OLS multiple regression analysis, passenger demand, cargo demand, transient external shocks, economic variables.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.43-50
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• 2019

The aviation demand forecast field has been actively studied along with the recent growth of the aviation market. In this study, the demand for domestic passenger demand and freight demand was estimated through cross-validation method. As a result, passenger demand is influenced by private consumption growth rate, oil price, and exchange rate. Freight demand is affected by GDP per capita, private consumption growth rate, and oil price. In particular, passenger demand is characterized by temporary external shocks, and freight demand is more affected by economic variables than temporary shocks.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.65-75
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• 2022

This study aims to forecast of Air Passenger Demand between South Korea and North Korea using the system dynamics analysis methodology that is based on the system thinking. System dynamics is not only a tool that makes the systematic thought to a model but also a computer program-based analysis methodology that mathematically models the system varying according to time variation. This study analyzed the causal relationship based on the interrelation among variables and structured them by considering various variables that affect aviation cooperation from the perspective of Air passenger demand forecasting. In addition, based on the causal relationship between variables, this study also completed the causal loop diagram that forms a feedback loop, constructed the stock-flow diagram of Inter-Korean model using Vensim program. In this study, Air passenger demand was using by the simulation variable value into System Dynamics. This study was difficult to reflect the various variables constituting the North Korea environment, and there is a limit to the occurrence of events in North Korea.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.472-479
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• 2024

Half of the world's total population lives in cities, continuous urbanization is progressing, and the urban population is expected to exceed two-thirds of the total population by 2050. To resolve this phenomenon, the Korean government is focusing on building a new urban air mobility (UAM) industrial ecosystem. Airlines are also part of the UAM industry ecosystem and are preparing to improve efficiency in safe operations, passenger safety, aircraft operation efficiency, and punctuality. This study performs demand forecasting using time series data on the number of daily passengers on Korean Air's Gimpo to Jeju route from 2019 to 2023. For this purpose, statistical and machine learning models such as SARIMA, Prophet, CatBoost, and Random Forest are applied. Methods for effectively capturing passenger demand patterns were evaluated through various models, and the machine learning-based Random Forest model showed the best prediction results. The research results will present an optimal model for accurate demand forecasting in the aviation industry and provide basic information needed for operational planning and resource allocation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.27-34
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• 2000

This study analyzes the price elasticities of airline Passenger demand through the 'Stated Preference' technique which uses survey data. Because the domestic airfare has been regulated by the government. it is not easy to derive Price elasticity through the usual regression analysis with aggregate data and thus a special methodology is required for elasticity estimation. Therefore, in this study we estimated the Price elasticities of domestic air passenger demand and the modal share change rates to the alternative modes with logit model and sample enumeration method, by analyzing the survey data on air Passengers' demand behavior about the mode choice between air-rail. air-bus, and air-car. As the results, the estimated price elasticities are in the range of -0.6~-0.9, and rail is mainly chosen as an alternative mode. bus is chosen Partly, and car is barely used.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.89-100
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• 2017

In order for the international aviation community to efficiently and safely manage the gradual increase of air passenger demand, direction suggestions of airport traffic prediction based on future airport capacity requirements, airport design and infrastructure establishment is utilized by airport traffic data that is m comparable internationally. It is a global trend to pursue more efficient airport operating system structure to accept air passenger demand through more realistic comparable data in order to escape from the structure of reckless airport establishment and infrastructure composition based on passenger demand predictions referring to simple statistical data that has existed in the past. This study aimed to seek effective operational measures for the New Jeju airport scheduled to be opened in 2025 by time-series analysis. This study also analysed airport operation strategies, air traffic distribution strategies, cargo volume increase rates and its effectiveness of airports adopting the multi-airport system that have similar operational practices and geographical conditions. This study sought the most appropriate multi airport system application measures for New Jeju airport to promote efficiency and international competitiveness.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.83-91
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• 2009

This paper aims to predict air passenger and air freight demands in the air routes between South and North Korea. The air demands will be fostered by the visitors of Pyeongyang and Baekdu Mountain, whose forecasts will be used for supplying the air traffic services necessary for the active exchange and cooperation between South and North Korea in the future. The authors use the tool of regression analysis under the assumption of epoch-making progress in demand for aviation in accordance with the exchange and cooperation scenario between South and North Korea. After predicting the total number of travelers through regression analysis, the authors applied the share of air passengers among total travelers in order to predict the number of air passengers. Finally, the number of flights of each airport and route were forecasted by including the air freight, estimated from the number of air passengers.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.9-18
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• 2014

Small and medium-sized local airports have suffered from chronic operating deficits due to many factors except for large airports in Incheon, Gimpo, Jeju and Gimhae. These small and medium-sized local airports have currently been degraded to inefficient airports handling the significantly lower airline demand than their carrying capacities. In this context, this study conducted a survey on the actual conditions of the airline demand in small and medium-sized local airports for the last 10 years after the opening of the Korea Train eXpress and investigated the causes and actual conditions of an increase and a decrease in the airline demand. In addition, it analyzed the functionality, convenience and economic feasibility, competition elements in comparison with other means of transportation, and the actual competitive conditions of local airports. It investigated facility improvements through a field visit for local airports and analyzed the performance rate of passenger demands and the use rate of terminal facilities according to a change in the airline demand. This study aimed to provide basic data in the architectural planning field, needed to establish a plan for the airport revitalization of local airports with the results of an analysis on the actual conditions of small and medium-sized local airports.