• 제목/요약/키워드: Aggregate Demand

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China's Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks and South Korea's Exports: A TVP-VAR Approach with an SMSS Structure

  • Liu, Lin;Zhang, Manman;Li, Wei
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - Since China has been South Korea's biggest export destination, uncertainty shocks originating from it would influence South Korea's exports. This paper evaluates the effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to explore the transmission channels. Design/methodology - Incorporating endogeneities and nonlinearities, this study employs a quarterly time-varying parameters vector autoregressive model to investigate the relationships between China's economic policy uncertainty and Korea's exports, where the overparameterization due to time-varying specifications is overcome by a novel stochastic model specification search framework. According to previous theoretical studies, this paper assesses two channels, demand shock channel and exchange rate channel, through which foreign uncertainty affects Korea's exports. This paper identifies the primary drivers of Korea's aggregate exports and analyzes the rationales for the time-variant impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China. Findings - Our empirical results reveal that Korea's aggregate exports are less responsive to China's economic policy uncertainty shocks and significantly move together with global demand. In contrast, its bilateral exports to China are highly responsive in a negative and time-variant way. Moreover, Chinese investment is an important channel through which China's economic policy uncertainty affects Korea's exports to China after 2010. Further, the time-variant effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China are related to changes in China's foreign trade policies, global economic conditions, and China's degree of economic freedom. Originality/value - Few previous studies touch the effects of external uncertainty shocks on South Korea's exports. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explicitly investigate the impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports from a time-varying perspective. As Korea is an export-oriented economy, this study provides insights for the Korean government to understand the transmissions of external uncertainty better.

수도권과 지방권 수요예측모형을 통한 전국 도시가스수요전망의 예측력 향상 (Improving Forecast Accuracy of City Gas Demand in Korea by Aggregating the Forecasts from the Demand Models of Seoul Metropolitan and the Other Local Areas)

  • 이성로
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.519-547
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 지역 단위 도시가스 수요예측모형을 이용하여 전국 도시가스수요예측의 정확도를 향상할 수 있는지 여부를 살펴봤다. 지역별 수요예측모형을 구축하게 된 배경은 용도별 도시가스 수요의 행태가 분화되는 상황에서 자료의 제한으로 용도별 수요예측모형을 구축하기 어렵다는 것에 있다. 지역별 수요예측모형은 전국수요를 수도권과 지방으로 구분하여 별도의 예측모형을 구성하는 것으로, 시간변동계수를 갖는 공적분모형을 이용하였다. 지역모형에서 전국 도시가스수요예측은 지역별 수요전망치를 합산하여 산출하였다. 2013~2016년의 4년간 예측력 평가결과, 지역별 모형을 통한 전국 도시가스수요 예측이 전국단위 예측모형에 비하여 예측력이 전반적으로 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 지역모형에서는 수도권과 지방권 모형을 별도로 구축함으로써 해당 지역 수요의 특성을 반영한 예측모형이 가능했다. 수도권수요는 가정용수요 비중이 높아 기온에 보다 민감하게 반응하고, 전력수요와 경쟁관계가 있다. 이에 반해 지방권은 산업용수요 비중이 높아 전반적인 경기상황에 따른 수요변동이 크고, 수도권과 달리 벙커씨유와 LPG와 같은 산업용 연료와 대체관계를 보였다. 상기 결과는 성숙기에 접어든 도시가스산업에서 지역별 수요에 대한 세부적인 분석을 통해 전국 단위 수요예측의 정확도를 향상시킬 수 있다는 것을 보여주고, 이와 더불어 용도별 도시가수요 분석에도 유용한 정보를 제공할 것으로 기대한다.

재생잔골재 및 플라이애시 대체율에 따른 재생콘크리트의 공학적 특성 및 내구성능에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Engineering Property and Durability of Recycled Concrete with Replacement Ratio of Recycled Fine Aggregate and Fly-ash)

  • 김무한;김규용;김재환;조봉석;김영선;문형재
    • 한국건설순환자원학회논문집
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2005
  • 최근 천연골재 자원의 고갈과 환경규제의 강화로 인해 콘크리트용 잔골재의 수급문제가 건설산업분야에서 시급히 해결해야할 문제로 대두되고 있어 폐기콘크리트를 활용한 재생잔골재의 콘크리트용 잔골재로의 활용을 위한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 한편 화학발전소 및 열병합발전소에서 발생되는 석탄회는 그 발생량이 계속적으로 증가하고 있으며, 석탄회중 플라이애시를 콘크리트용 혼화재료로서 사용할 경우 시공성 및 점성 개선, 장기강도 증가 및 수화열 저감 등 많은 장점으로 인하여 보통 콘크리트에서의 활용이 증가하고 있는 실정이나, 재생콘크리트의 혼화재로 활용하기 위한 연구는 미미한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에 서는 재생잔골재 및 플라이애시 대체율에 따른 굳지않은 특성, 경화특성, 내구특성을 실험 실증적으로 검토 분석함으로서 재생잔골재를 콘크리트용 잔골재로 활용할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 플라이애시를 재생콘크리트의 혼화재로 활용하기 위한 기초자료를 제시하고자 하였다. 연구 결과 재생잔골재를 대체한 경우 굳지않은 성상, 정화성상 및 내구성상이 재생잔골재 100%을 치환했을 때 천연잔골재를 사용한 콘크리트와 유사한 수준으로 나타나 콘크리트용 잔골재로서 재생산골재의 활용이 가능한 것으로 사료되었으며, 플라이애시를 고품질 재생잔골재를 사용한 재생콘크리트용 혼화재로 활용함으로서 시공성, 공학적 특성 및 내구특성 등의 성능이 향상되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

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부순모래를 사용한 레디믹스트 콘크리트의 배합설계 및 강도추정방법 (Strength Estimation of Ready-Mixed Concrete Using Crushed Sand)

  • 서진국
    • 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 1999
  • It is difficult to keep the balance of supply and demand for natural aggregates in recent years, because natural resources have become to be almost exhausted. Crushed stone is already used for coarse aggregate instead of river gravel at present. Now, crushed sand or sea sand should be used for fine aggregate, because natural sand also has been exhausted with a few exceptions around Nakdong River. The sea sand has a lot of problems which are the corrosion of reinforcement bars, the investment of facility for cleansing salt and the cost increase due to the insufficiency of industrial water. Therefore, it is necessary to produce and to utilize the crushed sand very actively, but some material properties which are related to water absorption, strength and chemical durability, prevent from determining the generalized criteria because its rocks make much differences in its physical and chemical characteristics. In this paper, fundamental physical properties of crushed sand, which comes from Daegu Subway construction fields, have been investigated for the usability on basic material of concrete. The optimum replacement ratio and the strength estimation method of crushed sand replacing natural sand also have been presented here through the compressive strength test of ready-mixed concrete cylinders.

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세 가지 형태의 컨테이너 차량을 고려한 총괄수송계획 (Aggregate Transportation Planning Considering Three Types of Container Vehicles)

  • 고창성;정기호;신재영
    • 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 2002년도 춘계공동학술대회
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    • pp.171-178
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    • 2002
  • At the present time, container transportation plays a key role in the international logistics and the efforts to increase the productivity of container logistics become essential for Korean trucking companies to survive in the domestic as well as global competition. This study suggests an approach for determining fleet size for container road transportation with dynamic demand. Usually the vehicles operated by the transportation trucking companies in Korea can be classified into three types depending on the ways how their expenses occur; company-owned truck, mandated truck which is owned by outsider who entrust the company with its operation, and rented vehicle (outsourcing). Armually the trucking companies should decide how many company-owned and mandated trucks will be operated considering vehicle types and the transportation demands. With the forecasted monthly data for the volume of containers to be transported a year, a heuristic algorithm using tabu search is developed to determine the number of company-owned trucks, mandated trucks, and rented trucks in order to minimize the expected annual operating cost The idea of the algorithm is based on both the aggregate production planning (APP) and the pickup-and-delivery problem (PDP). Finally the algorithm is tested for the problem how the trucking company determines the fleet size for transporting containers.

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부순모래를 사용한 콘크리트의 현장 품질 특성에 관한 실험 연구 (Investigation on Properties of Concrete with Crushed Sand on Site)

  • 이성복;이도헌;지남용
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2003
  • This study is to investigate the properties of concrete with crushed sand on site and to propose a quality guideline for its use as artificial sand and concrete. From our experimental result in laboratory and site, we found that demand water of concrete with crushed sand for target slump increased by 18kg/m3 compared to mixed sand and l8kg/m3 compared to sea sand respectively. The compressive strength increased by around 3∼6% when compared to concrete with sea sand. Accordingly, our study showed that the combined sand mixed with sea sand would be desirable to obtain workability and strength of concrete including dry shrinkage and bleeding test. Furthermore, the optimal replacement percentage of crushed sand was 50% with sea sand. As such, crushed sand would be sufficient as fine aggregate for concrete in terms of economic efficiency and quality. Crushed sand, on the other hand can only be used as fine aggregate when VFS(Very Fine Sand) is below 3.5 percentage of weight of sand and particle shape is above 55 percentage. Also, the particle shape and microsand passing NO.200 sieve should continually be improved to increase workability of concrete on site.

Coal Fly Ash로부터 경량 골재 생산을 위한 소성장치 (Kiln for Production of Light Weight Aggregate from Coal Fly Ash)

  • 최영윤;남철우;김병규;김병곤
    • 자원리싸이클링
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2007
  • 국내 석탄 발전소에서 발생하는 Fly ash를 이용한 경량 골재 제조는 환경 보호와 천연 골재 고갈을 동시에 해결할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 건축물의 초고층화는 골재의 경량화를 요구하고 있다. Dwight-Lloyd kiln은 운전이 쉽고 신뢰성이 높아 현재 유일하게 석탄회 소결 골재 상업 생산에 이용되고 있다. 본 고에서는 일본 Oomura 발전소의 Dwight-Lloyd kiln설비에 대해 자세히 설명하였고, 아울러 현재 개발 단계인 Circular grate kiln, Shaft kiln, Rotary kiln 설비에 대해서 개략적으로 소개하였다.

The Impact of Global Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomics: The Case of Vietnam

  • TRAN, Ha Hong;NGUYEN, Vinh Thi Hong;TRINH, Nam Hoang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권9호
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    • pp.263-269
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    • 2022
  • The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2019 along with the slow and unstable recovery of the global economy have raised concerns about the impact of global uncertainty on the macroeconomics of the countries. The paper used the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to examine the impact of global uncertainty shocks on Vietnam's economy from the period 2008-2022. We found that Vietnam's output dropped following the shock of global uncertainty, the peak was in the third month, and lasted for one year. Inflation in Vietnam had a rapid downturn in the first month, peaked in the seventh month, and took a long time to cease. When the economy experienced the shock of increased global uncertainty, Vietnam's policy interest rate was adjusted downward. Additionally, we included a long-term interest rate to consider the overall impact of monetary policy into account. A decreasing trend was also found with this rate. The global uncertainty shock effects acted as the aggregate demand shocks, reducing output and inflation as the uncertainty increases and vice versa, thus monetary policy can be used to regulate Vietnam's economy to deal with negative shocks without the trade-offs between output and inflation as aggregate supply shocks.

부순모래를 사용한 콘크리트의 특성에 관한 연구 (Study on the Properties of Concrete Using Crushed Sand)

  • 고경택;류금성;한천구;윤기원;이장화
    • 한국건설순환자원학회논문집
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    • 제2권2호
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2006
  • Recently, interest grew recently on the quality of aggregates following the diminution of primary resources from river and the growing construction demand which exhausted high-quality sand sources around large cities and incited the use of low grade aggregates like shore sand and sea sand that can be supplied in natural state. Especially, the environmental preservation concern and the augmentation of public grievance about the exploitation of sea sand as substitute to river sand are gradually impeding the supply. This situation aggravated by the recent interdiction to extract sea sand which resulted in sand crisis that even led once to the suspension of construction works. The lack of sea sand and river sand increased the exploitation of crushed sand which occupies now nearly 20% of the whole quantity of fine aggregates. And, the use of crushed sand may be expected to grow continuously in the future. This paper described that the properties of crushed sand and the concrete using the crushed sand, the technologies to improve quality of crushed sand and the concrete in order to provide information for the production of high-quality concrete using crushed sand.

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Mechanical properties of sustainable green self-compacting concrete incorporating recycled waste PET: A state-of-the-art review

  • Shireen T. Saadullah;James H. Haido;Yaman S.S. Al-Kamaki
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.35-57
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    • 2023
  • Majority of the plastic produced each year is being disposed in land after single-use, which becomes waste and takes up a lot of storage space. Therefore, there is an urgent need to find alternative solutions instead of disposal. Recycling and reusing the PET plastic waste as aggregate replacement and fiber in concrete production can be one of the eco- friendly methods as there is a great demand for concrete around the world, especially in developing countries by raising human awareness of the environment, the economy, and Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Self-compacting concrete (SCC) is a key development in concrete technology that offers a number of attractive features over traditional concrete applications. Recently, in order to improve its durability and prevent such plastics from directly contacting the environment, various kinds of plastics have been added. This review article summarizes the latest evident on the performance of SCC containing recycled PET as eco-friendly aggregates and fiber. Moreover, it highlights the influence of substitution content, shape, length, and size on the fresh and properties of SCC incorporating PET plastic. Based on the findings of the articles that were reviewed for this study, it is observed that SCC made of PET plastic (PETSCC) can be employed in construction era owing to its acceptable mechanical and fresh properties. On the other hand, it is concluded that owing to the lightweight nature of plastic aggregate, Reusing PET waste in the construction application is an effective approach to reduces the earthquake risk of a building.