• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.123-138
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• 2017

Since the stock market is driven by the expectation of traders, studies have been conducted to predict stock price movements through analysis of various sources of text data. In order to predict stock price movements, research has been conducted not only on the relationship between text data and fluctuations in stock prices, but also on the trading stocks based on news articles and social media responses. Studies that predict the movements of stock prices have also applied classification algorithms with constructing term-document matrix in the same way as other text mining approaches. Because the document contains a lot of words, it is better to select words that contribute more for building a term-document matrix. Based on the frequency of words, words that show too little frequency or importance are removed. It also selects words according to their contribution by measuring the degree to which a word contributes to correctly classifying a document. The basic idea of constructing a term-document matrix was to collect all the documents to be analyzed and to select and use the words that have an influence on the classification. In this study, we analyze the documents for each individual item and select the words that are irrelevant for all categories as neutral words. We extract the words around the selected neutral word and use it to generate the term-document matrix. The neutral word itself starts with the idea that the stock movement is less related to the existence of the neutral words, and that the surrounding words of the neutral word are more likely to affect the stock price movements. And apply it to the algorithm that classifies the stock price fluctuations with the generated term-document matrix. In this study, we firstly removed stop words and selected neutral words for each stock. And we used a method to exclude words that are included in news articles for other stocks among the selected words. Through the online news portal, we collected four months of news articles on the top 10 market cap stocks. We split the news articles into 3 month news data as training data and apply the remaining one month news articles to the model to predict the stock price movements of the next day. We used SVM, Boosting and Random Forest for building models and predicting the movements of stock prices. The stock market opened for four months (2016/02/01 ~ 2016/05/31) for a total of 80 days, using the initial 60 days as a training set and the remaining 20 days as a test set. The proposed word - based algorithm in this study showed better classification performance than the word selection method based on sparsity. This study predicted stock price volatility by collecting and analyzing news articles of the top 10 stocks in market cap. We used the term - document matrix based classification model to estimate the stock price fluctuations and compared the performance of the existing sparse - based word extraction method and the suggested method of removing words from the term - document matrix. The suggested method differs from the word extraction method in that it uses not only the news articles for the corresponding stock but also other news items to determine the words to extract. In other words, it removed not only the words that appeared in all the increase and decrease but also the words that appeared common in the news for other stocks. When the prediction accuracy was compared, the suggested method showed higher accuracy. The limitation of this study is that the stock price prediction was set up to classify the rise and fall, and the experiment was conducted only for the top ten stocks. The 10 stocks used in the experiment do not represent the entire stock market. In addition, it is difficult to show the investment performance because stock price fluctuation and profit rate may be different. Therefore, it is necessary to study the research using more stocks and the yield prediction through trading simulation.

• The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.67-72
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• 2010

Purpose: In Asan Medical Center we perform myocardial perfusion SPECT to evaluate cardiac event risk level for non-cardiac surgery patients. In case of patients with cancer, we check tumor metastasis using whole body bone scan and whole body PET scan and then perform myocardial perfusion SPECT to reduce unnecessary exam. In case of short term in patients, we perform $^{201}Tl$ myocardial perfusion SPECT after whole body bone scan a minimum 16 hours in order to reduce hospitalization period but it is still the actual condition in which the evaluation about the affect of the crosstalk contamination due to the each other dissimilar isotope administration doesn't properly realize. So in our experiments, we try to evaluate crosstalk contamination influence on $^{201}Tl$ myocardial perfusion SPECT using anthropomorphic torso phantom and patient's data. Materials and Methods: From 2009 August to September, we analyzed 87 patients with $^{201}Tl$ myocardial perfusion SPECT. According to $^{201}Tl$ myocardial perfusion SPECT yesterday whole body bone scan possibility of carrying out, a patient was classified. The image data are obtained by using the dual energy window in $^{201}Tl$ myocardial perfusion SPECT. We analyzed $^{201}Tl$ and $^{99m}Tc$ counts ratio in each patients groups obtained image data. We utilized anthropomorphic torso phantom in our experiment and administrated $^{201}Tl$ 14.8 MBq (0.4 mCi) at myocardium and $^{99m}Tc$ 44.4 MBq (1.2 mCi) at extracardiac region. We obtained image by $^{201}Tl$ myocardial perfusion SPECT without gate method application and analyzed spatial resolution using Xeleris ver 2.0551. Results: In case of $^{201}Tl$ window and the counts rate comparison result yesterday whole body bone scan of being counted in $^{99m}Tc$ window, the difference in which a rate to 24 hours exponential-functionally notes in 1:0.114 with Ventri (GE Healthcare, Wisconsin, USA), 1:0.249 after the bone tracer injection in 12 hours in 1:0.411 with 1:0.79 with Infinia (GE healthcare, Wisconsin, USA) according to a reduction a time-out was shown (Ventri p=0.001, Infinia p=0.001). Moreover, the rate of the case in which it doesn't perform the whole body bone scan showed up as the average 1:$0.067{\pm}0.6$ of Ventri, and 1:$0.063{\pm}0.7$ of Infinia. According to the phantom after experiment spatial resolution measurement result, and an addition or no and time-out of $^{99m}Tc$ administrated, it doesn't note any change of FWHM (p=0.134). Conclusion: Through the experiments using anthropomorphic torso phantom and patients data, we found that $^{201}Tl$ myocardium perfusion SPECT image later carried out after the bone tracer injection with 16 hours this confirmed that it doesn't receive notable influence in spatial resolution by $^{99m}Tc$. But this investigation is only aimed to image quality, so it needs more investigation in patient's radiation dose and exam accuracy and precision. The exact guideline presentation about the exam interval should be made of the validation test which is exact and in which it is standardized about the affect of the crosstalk contamination according to the isotope use in which it is different later on.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.79-96
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• 2012

As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.177-193
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• 2014

Over the past decade, there has been a rapid diffusion of electronic commerce and a rising number of interconnected networks, resulting in an escalation of security threats and privacy concerns. Electronic commerce has a built-in trade-off between the necessity of providing at least some personal information to consummate an online transaction, and the risk of negative consequences from providing such information. More recently, the frequent disclosure of private information has raised concerns about privacy and its impacts. This has motivated researchers in various fields to explore information privacy issues to address these concerns. Accordingly, the necessity for information privacy policies and technologies for collecting and storing data, and information privacy research in various fields such as medicine, computer science, business, and statistics has increased. The occurrence of various information security accidents have made finding experts in the information security field an important issue. Objective measures for finding such experts are required, as it is currently rather subjective. Based on social network analysis, this paper focused on a framework to evaluate the process of finding experts in the information security field. We collected data from the National Discovery for Science Leaders (NDSL) database, initially collecting about 2000 papers covering the period between 2005 and 2013. Outliers and the data of irrelevant papers were dropped, leaving 784 papers to test the suggested hypotheses. The co-authorship network data for co-author relationship, publisher, affiliation, and so on were analyzed using social network measures including centrality and structural hole. The results of our model estimation are as follows. With the exception of Hypothesis 3, which deals with the relationship between eigenvector centrality and performance, all of our hypotheses were supported. In line with our hypothesis, degree centrality (H1) was supported with its positive influence on the researchers' publishing performance (p<0.001). This finding indicates that as the degree of cooperation increased, the more the publishing performance of researchers increased. In addition, closeness centrality (H2) was also positively associated with researchers' publishing performance (p<0.001), suggesting that, as the efficiency of information acquisition increased, the more the researchers' publishing performance increased. This paper identified the difference in publishing performance among researchers. The analysis can be used to identify core experts and evaluate their performance in the information privacy research field. The co-authorship network for information privacy can aid in understanding the deep relationships among researchers. In addition, extracting characteristics of publishers and affiliations, this paper suggested an understanding of the social network measures and their potential for finding experts in the information privacy field. Social concerns about securing the objectivity of experts have increased, because experts in the information privacy field frequently participate in political consultation, and business education support and evaluation. In terms of practical implications, this research suggests an objective framework for experts in the information privacy field, and is useful for people who are in charge of managing research human resources. This study has some limitations, providing opportunities and suggestions for future research. Presenting the difference in information diffusion according to media and proximity presents difficulties for the generalization of the theory due to the small sample size. Therefore, further studies could consider an increased sample size and media diversity, the difference in information diffusion according to the media type, and information proximity could be explored in more detail. Moreover, previous network research has commonly observed a causal relationship between the independent and dependent variable (Kadushin, 2012). In this study, degree centrality as an independent variable might have causal relationship with performance as a dependent variable. However, in the case of network analysis research, network indices could be computed after the network relationship is created. An annual analysis could help mitigate this limitation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.149-171
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• 2020

The period at university is to make decision about getting an actual job. As our society develops rapidly and highly, jobs are diversified, subdivided, and specialized, and students' job preparation period is also getting longer and longer. This study analyzed the log data of college students to see how the various activities that college students experience inside and outside of school might have influences on employment. For this experiment, students' various activities were systematically classified, recorded as an activity data and were divided into six core competencies (Job reinforcement competency, Leadership & teamwork competency, Globalization competency, Organizational commitment competency, Job exploration competency, and Autonomous implementation competency). The effect of the six competency levels on the employment status (employed group, unemployed group) was analyzed. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the difference in level between the employed group and the unemployed group was significant for all of the six competencies, so it was possible to infer that the activities at the school are significant for employment. Next, in order to analyze the impact of the six competencies on the qualitative performance of employment, we had ANOVA analysis after dividing the each competency level into 2 groups (low and high group), and creating 6 groups by the range of first annual salary. Students with high levels of globalization capability, job search capability, and autonomous implementation capability were also found to belong to a higher annual salary group. The theoretical contributions of this study are as follows. First, it connects the competencies that can be extracted from the school experience with the competencies in the Human Resource Management field and adds job search competencies and autonomous implementation competencies which are required for university students to have their own successful career & life. Second, we have conducted this analysis with the competency data measured form actual activity and result data collected from the interview and research. Third, it analyzed not only quantitative performance (employment rate) but also qualitative performance (annual salary level). The practical use of this study is as follows. First, it can be a guide when establishing career development plans for college students. It is necessary to prepare for a job that can express one's strengths based on an analysis of the world of work and job, rather than having a no-strategy, unbalanced, or accumulating excessive specifications competition. Second, the person in charge of experience design for college students, at an organizations such as schools, businesses, local governments, and governments, can refer to the six competencies suggested in this study to for the user-useful experiences design that may motivate more participation. By doing so, one event may bring mutual benefits for both event designers and students. Third, in the era of digital transformation, the government's policy manager who envisions the balanced development of the country can make a policy in the direction of achieving the curiosity and energy of college students together with the balanced development of the country. A lot of manpower is required to start up novel platform services that have not existed before or to digitize existing analog products, services and corporate culture. The activities of current digital-generation-college-students are not only catalysts in all industries, but also for very benefit and necessary for college students by themselves for their own successful career development.

• The Korean Nurse
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.77-96
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• 1997

The duty shifts of hospital nurses not only affect nurses' physical and mental health but also present various personnel management problems which often result in high turnover rates. In this context a study was carried out from October to November 1995 for a period of two months to find out the status of hospital nurses' duty shift patterns, and preferred duty hours and fixed duty shifts. The study population was 867 RNs working in five general hospitals located in Seoul and its vicinity. The questionnaire developed by the writer was used for data collection. The response rate was 85.9 percent or 745 returns. The SAS program was used for data analysis with the computation of frequencies, percentages and Chi square test. The findings of the study are as follows: 1. General characteristics of the study population: 56 percent of respondents was (25 years group and 76.5 percent were "single": the predominant proportion of respondents was junior nursing college graduates(92.2%) and have less than 5 years nursing experience in hospitals(65.5%). For their future working plan in nursing profession, nearly 50% responded as uncertain The reasons given for their career plan was predominantly 'personal growth and development' rather than financial reasons. 2. The interval for rotations of duty stations was found to be mostly irregular(56.4%) while others reported as weekly(16.1%), monthly(12.9%), and fixed terms(4.6%). 3. The main problems related to duty shifts particularly the evening and night duty nurses reported were "not enough time for the family, " "afraid of security problems after the work when returning home late at night." and "lack of leisure time". "problems in physical and physiological adjustment." "problems in family life." "lack of time for interactions with fellow nurses" etc. 4. The forty percent of respondents reported to have '1-2 times' of duty shift rotations while all others reported that '0 time'. '2-3 times'. 'more than 3 times' etc. which suggest the irregularity in duty shift rotations. 5. The majority(62.8%) of study population found to favor the rotating system of duty stations. The reasons for favoring the rotation system were: the opportunity for "learning new things and personal development." "better human relations are possible. "better understanding in various duty stations." "changes in monotonous routine job" etc. The proportion of those disfavor the rotating 'system was 34.7 percent. giving the reasons of"it impedes development of specialization." "poor job performances." "stress factors" etc. Furthermore. respondents made the following comments in relation to the rotation of duty stations: the nurses should be given the opportunity to participate in the. decision making process: personal interest and aptitudes should be considered: regular intervals for the rotations or it should be planned in advance. etc. 6. For the future career plan. the older. married group with longer nursing experiences appeared to think the nursing as their lifetime career more likely than the younger. single group with shorter nursing experiences ($x^2=61.19.{\;}p=.000;{\;}x^2=41.55.{\;}p=.000$). The reason given for their future career plan regardless of length of future service, was predominantly "personal growth and development" rather than financial reasons. For further analysis, the group those with the shorter career plan appeared to claim "financial reasons" for their future career more readily than the group who consider the nursing job as their lifetime career$(x^2$= 11.73, p=.003) did. This finding suggests the need for careful .considerations in personnel management of nursing administration particularly when dealing with the nurses' career development. The majority of respondents preferred the fixed day shift. However, further analysis of those preferred evening shift by age and civil status, "< 25 years group"(15.1%) and "single group"(13.2) were more likely to favor the fixed evening shift than > 25 years(6.4%) and married(4.8%)groups. This differences were statistically significant ($x^2=14.54, {\;}p=.000;{\;}x^2=8.75, {\;}p=.003$). 7. A great majority of respondents(86.9% or n=647) found to prefer the day shifts. When the four different types of duty shifts(Types A. B. C, D) were presented, 55.0 percent of total respondents preferred the A type or the existing one followed by D type(22.7%). B type(12.4%) and C type(8.2%). 8. When the condition of monetary incentives for the evening(20% of salary) and night shifts(40% of. salary) of the existing duty type was presented. again the day shift appeared to be the most preferred one although the rate was slightly lower(66.4% against 86.9%). In the case of evening shift, with the same incentive, the preference rates for evening and night shifts increased from 11.0 to 22.4 percent and from 0.5 to 3.0 percent respectively. When the age variable was controlled. < 25 yrs group showed higher rates(31.6%. 4.8%) than those of > 25 yrs group(15.5%. 1.3%) respectively preferring the evening and night shifts(p=.000). The civil status also seemed to operate on the preferences of the duty shifts as the single group showed lower rate(69.0%) for day duty against 83. 6% of the married group. and higher rates for evening and night duties(27.2%. 15.1%) respectively against those of the married group(3.8%. 1.8%) while a higher proportion of the married group(83. 6%) preferred the day duties than the single group(69.0%). These differences were found to be statistically all significant(p=.001). 9. The findings on preferences of three different types of fixed duty hours namely, B, C. and D(with additional monetary incentives) are as follows in order of preference: B type(12hrs a day, 3days a wk): day shift(64.1%), evening shift(26.1%). night shift(6.5%) C type(12hrs a day. 4days a wk) : evening shift(49.2%). day shift(32.8%), night shift(11.5%) D type(10hrs a day. 4days a wk): showed the similar trend as B type. The findings of higher preferences on the evening and night duties when the incentives are given. as shown above, suggest the need for the introductions of different patterns of duty hours and incentive measures in order to overcome the difficulties in rostering the nursing duties. However, the interpretation of the above data, particularly the C type, needs cautions as the total number of respondents is very small(n=61). It requires further in-depth study. In conclusion. it seemed to suggest that the patterns of nurses duty hours and shifts in the most hospitals in the country have neither been tried for different duty types nor been flexible. The stereotype rostering system of three shifts and insensitiveness for personal life aspect of nurses seemed to be prevailing. This study seems to support that irregular and frequent rotations of duty shifts may be contributing factors for most nurses' maladjustment problems in physical and mental health. personal and family life which eventually may result in high turnover rates. In order to overcome the increasing problems in personnel management of hospital nurses particularly in rostering of evening and night duty shifts, which may related to eventual high turnover rates, the findings of this study strongly suggest the need for an introduction of new rostering systems including fixed duties and appropriate incentive measures for evenings and nights which the most nurses want to avoid, In considering the nursing care of inpatients is the round-the clock business. the practice of the nursing duty shift system is inevitable. In this context, based on the findings of this study. the following are recommended: 1. The further in-depth studies on duty shifts and hours need to be undertaken for the development of appropriate and effective rostering systems for hospital nurses. 2. An introduction of appropriate incentive measures for evening and night duty shifts along with organizational considerations such as the trials for preferred duty time bands, duty hours, and fixed duty shifts should be considered if good quality of care for the patients be maintained for the round the clock. This may require an initiation of systematic research and development activities in the field of hospital nursing administration as a part of permanent system in the hospital. 3. Planned and regular intervals, orientation and training, and professional and personal growth should be considered for the rotation of different duty stations or units. 4. In considering the higher degree of preferences in the duty type of "10hours a day, 4days a week" shown in this study, it would be worthwhile to undertake the R&D type studies in large hospital settings.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.109-117
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• 2013

The Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS) will guide the development of climate services that link science-based climate information and predictions with climate-risk management and adaptation to climate change. GFCS structure is made up of 5 pillars; Observations/Monitoring (OBS), Research/ Modeling/ Prediction (RES), Climate Services Information System (CSIS) and User Interface Platform (UIP) which are all supplemented with Capacity Development (CD). Corresponding to each GFCS pillar, the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) has been proposing "Global Initiatives in AgroMeteorology" (GIAM) in order to facilitate GFCS implementation scheme from the perspective of AgroMeteorology - Global AgroMeteorological Outlook System (GAMOS) for OBS, Global AgroMeteorological Pilot Projects (GAMPP) for RES, Global Federation of AgroMeteorological Society (GFAMS) for UIP/RES, WAMIS next phase for CSIS/UIP, and Global Centers of Research and Excellence in AgroMeteorology (GCREAM) for CD, through which next generation experts will be brought up as virtuous cycle for human resource procurements. The World AgroMeteorological Information Service (WAMIS) is a dedicated web server in which agrometeorological bulletins and advisories from members are placed. CAgM is about to extend its service into a Grid portal to share computer resources, information and human resources with user communities as a part of GFCS. To facilitate ICT resources sharing, a specialized or dedicated Data Center or Production Center (DCPC) of WMO Information System for WAMIS is under implementation by Korea Meteorological Administration. CAgM will provide land surface information to support LDAS (Land Data Assimilation System) of next generation Earth System as an information provider. The International Society for Agricultural Meteorology (INSAM) is an Internet market place for agrometeorologists. In an effort to strengthen INSAM as UIP for research community in AgroMeteorology, it was proposed by CAgM to establish Global Federation of AgroMeteorological Society (GFAMS). CAgM will try to encourage the next generation agrometeorological experts through Global Center of Excellence in Research and Education in AgroMeteorology (GCREAM) including graduate programmes under the framework of GENRI as a governing hub of Global Initiatives in AgroMeteorology (GIAM of CAgM). It would be coordinated under the framework of GENRI as a governing hub for all global initiatives such as GFAMS, GAMPP, GAPON including WAMIS II, primarily targeting on GFCS implementations.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.396-402
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• 2014

The spring season in Korea features a dynamic landscape with a variety of flowers such as magnolias, azaleas, forsythias, cherry blossoms and royal azaleas flowering sequentially one after another. However, the narrowing of south-north differences in flowering dates and those among the flower species was observed in 2014, taking a toll on economic and shared communal values of seasonal landscape. This study was carried out to determine whether the 2014 incidence is an outlier or a mega trend in spring phenology. Data on flowering dates of forsythias and cherry blossoms, two typical spring flower species, as observed for the recent 60 years in 6 weather stations of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) indicate that the difference spanning the flowering date of forsythias, the flower blooming earlier in spring, and that of cherry blossoms that flower later than forsythias was 30 days at the longest and 14 days on an average in the climatological normal year for the period 1951-1980, comparing with the period 1981-2010 when the difference narrowed to 21 days at the longest and 11 days on an average. The year 2014 in particular saw the gap further narrowing down to 7 days, making it possible to see forsythias and cherry blossoms blooming at the same time in the same location. 'Cherry blossom front' took 20 days in traveling from Busan, the earliest flowering station, to Incheon, the latest flowering station, in the case of the 1951-1980 normal year, while 16 days for the 1981-2010 and 6 days for 2014 were observed. The delay in flowering date of forsythias for each time period was 20, 17, and 12 days, respectively. It is presumed that the recent climate change pattern in the Korean Peninsula as indicated by rapid temperature hikes in late spring contrastive to slow temperature rise in early spring immediately after dormancy release brought forward the flowering date of cherry blossoms which comes later than forsythias which flowers early in spring. Thermal time based heating requirements for flowering of 2 species were estimated by analyzing the 60 year data at the 6 locations and used to predict flowering date in 2014. The root mean square error for the prediction was within 2 days from the observed flowering dates in both species at all 6 locations, showing a feasibility of thermal time as a prognostic tool.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.316-326
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• 2014

Determination of the late marginal heading date (LMHD), which would allow estimation of the late marginal seeding date and the late marginal transplanting date, would help identification of potential double cropping areas and, as a result, establishment of cropping systems. The objective of this study was to determine the LMHD at 51 sites in Korea. For these sites, weather data were obtained from 1971 to 2000 and from 1981 to 2010, which represent past and current normal climate conditions, respectively. To examine crop productivity on the LMHD, climatic yield potential (CYP) was determined to represent the potential yield under a given climate condition. The LMHD was calculated using accumulated temperature for 40 days with threshold values of $760^{\circ}C$, $800^{\circ}C$, $840^{\circ}C$ and $880^{\circ}C$. The value of CYP on a given LMHD was determined using mean temperature and sunshine duration for 40 days from the LMHD. The value of CYP on the LMHD was divided by the maximum value of CYP (CYPmax) in a season to represent the relative yield on the LMHD compared with the potential yield in the season. Our results indicated that the LMHD was delayed at most sites under current normal conditions compared with past conditions. Spatial variation of the LMHD differed by the threshold temperature. Overall, the minimum value of CYP/CYPmax was 81.8% under all of given conditions. In most cases, the value of CYP/CYPmax was >90%, which suggested that yield could be comparable to the potential yield even though heading would have occurred on the LMHD. When the LMHD could be scheduled later without considerable reduction in yield, the late marginal transplanting date could also be delayed accordingly, which would facilitate doublecropping in many areas in Korea. Yield could be affected by sudden change of temperature during a grain filling period. Yet, CYP was calculated using mean temperature and sunshine duration for 40 days after heading. Thus, the value of CYP/CYPmax may not represent actual yield potential due to change of the LMHD, which suggested that further study would be merited to take into account the effect of weather events during grain filling periods on yield using crop growth model and field experiments.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.132-146
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• 2014

The effects of the cold air generated from large cold water mass at the coastal area on observed air temperature in Busan were investigated using AWS(Automatic Weather Station) data at the Busan area operated by Korea Meterological Administration and SST(Sea Surface Temperature) data at the Gijang and Busan area operated by Korean National Fisheries Research Development Institute. First, the temperature difference between the coastal area and the city area was about $1^{\circ}C$ during cold water mass day while it was about $0.5^{\circ}C$ if cold water mass was not appeared. Second, for day time, the temperature at the coastal area was about $1^{\circ}C$ lower than that at the city area during cold water mass day, but the difference was only about $0.4^{\circ}C$ without cold water mass. On the other hand, for night time, the temperature at the coastal area was about $1.2^{\circ}C$ lower than that at the city area during cold water mass day and the difference was about $0.9^{\circ}C$ without cold water mass. As a result, temperature differences at night time were higher than those at day time whether or not cold water mass appeared. The reason for higher temperature at night time might be the urban heat island phenomenon.