• Title/Summary/Keyword: Additive Risk Model

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Lifetime Risk Assessment of Lung Cancer Incidence for Nonsmokers in Japan Considering the Joint Effect of Radiation and Smoking Based on the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors

  • Shimada, Kazumasa;Kai, Michiaki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2021
  • Background: The lifetime risk of lung cancer incidence due to radiation for nonsmokers is overestimated because of the use of the average cancer baseline risk among a mixed population, including smokers. In recent years, the generalized multiplicative (GM)-excess relative risk (ERR) model has been developed in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors to consider the joint effect of radiation and smoking. Based on this background, this paper discusses the issues of radiation risk assessment considering smoking in two parts. Materials and Methods: In Part 1, we proposed a simple method of estimating the baseline risk for nonsmokers using current smoking data. We performed sensitivity analysis on baseline risk estimation to discuss the birth cohort effects. In Part 2, we applied the GM-ERR model for Japanese smokers to calculate lifetime attributable risk (LAR). We also performed a sensitivity analysis using other ERR models (e.g., simple additive (SA)-ERR model). Results and Discussion: In Part 1, the lifetime baseline risk from mixed population including smokers to nonsmokers decreased by 54% (44%-60%) for males and 24% (18%-29%) for females. In Part 2, comparison of LAR between SA- and GM-ERR models showed that if the radiation dose was ≤200 mGy or less, the difference between these ERR models was within the standard deviation of LAR due to the uncertainty of smoking information. Conclusion: The use of mixed population for baseline risk assessment overestimates the risk for lung cancer due to low-dose radiation exposure in Japanese males.

Expansion Model of Cement Paste using Expansive Additive (팽창재를 혼입한 시멘트 경화체의 팽창모델)

  • Park, Sun-Gyu;Takahumi, Noguchi;Kim, Moo-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.789-792
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    • 2005
  • Development of high-strength concrete and improved durability has brought new opportunities to the construction industry. However, some attention was given to characteristics of such concrete, in particular with respect to their cracking sensitivity. It has been argued and demonstrated experimentally that a low water/cement ratio concrete undergoes shrinkage due to self-desiccation. This so-called autogenous shrinkage cracking is a major concern for concrete durability. One possible method to reduce cracking due to autogenous shrinkage is the addition of expansive additive. Tests conducted by many researches have shown the beneficial effects of addition of expansive for reducing the risk of shrinkage-introduced cracking. This paper aimed at forecasting deformation of high strength cement paste with expansive additive for early age.

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Lack of Association between the hOGG1 Ser326Cys Polymorphism and Gastric Cancer Risk: a Meta-analysis

  • Li, Bai-Rong;Zhou, Guo-Wu;Bian, Qi;Song, Bin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.1145-1149
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    • 2012
  • Aim: To clarify any association between the hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and susceptibility to gastric cancer. Methods: A meta-analysis based on 11 eligible case-control studies involving 5,107 subjects was carried out to summarize the data on the association between hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and gastric cancer risk. Results: No association was found between hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and gastric cancer risk (dominant model: OR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.83-1.09, p = 0.486, ph (p values for heterogeneity) = 0.419; additive model: OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.81-1.30, p = 0.850, ph = 0.181; recessive model: OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.80-1.48, p = 0.586, ph = 0.053). Subgroup analysis based on ethnicity (Asian and Caucasian) and smoking status (ever smoker and never smoker) did did notpresent any significant association. Sensitivity analysis did not perturb the results. Conclusions: This study strongly suggested there might be no association between the hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and gastric cancer risk. However, larger scale studies are needed for confirmation.

Health Risk Estimation for Daily Maximum Temperature in the Summer Season using Healthcare Big Data (보건의료빅데이터를 이용한 여름철 일최고기온에 대한 건강위험도 평가)

  • Hwang, Mi-Kyoung;Kim, Yoo-Keun;Oh, Inbo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.617-627
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    • 2019
  • This study investigated the relationship between heat-related illnesses obtained from healthcare big data and daily maximum temperature observed in seven metropolitan cities in summer during 2013~2015. We found a statistically significant positive correlation (r = 0.4~0.6) between daily maximum temperature and number of the heat-related patients from Pearson's correlation analyses. A time lag effect was not observed. Relative Risk (RR) analysis using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) showed that the RR of heat-related illness increased with increasing threshold temperature (maximum RR = 1.21). A comparison of the RRs of the seven cities, showed that the values were significantly different by geographical location of the city and had different variations for different threshold temperatures. The RRs for elderly people were clearly higher than those for the all-age group. Especially, a maximum value of 1.83 was calculated at the threshold temperature of $35^{\circ}C$ in Seoul. In addition, relatively higher RRs were found for inland cities (Seoul, Gwangju, Daegu, and Daejeon), which had a high frequency of heat waves. These results demonstrate the significant risk of heat-related illness associated with increasing daily maximum temperature and the difference in adaptation ability to heat wave for each city, which could help improve the heat wave advisory and warning system.

A Study on the Hydration Reaction Model of Expansive Additive of Ettringite-Gypsum Type (에트링가이트-석탄 복합계 팽장재의 수화반응 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Park Sun Gyu;Takahumi Noguchi;Kim Moo-Han
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.17 no.4 s.88
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    • pp.581-586
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    • 2005
  • High-performance concrete (HPC), which is particularly sensitive to self-desiccation, is required to be durable even in severe environmental conditions, i.e. costal area, cold district, etc. However, in recent years, some attention was particularly given to cracking sensitivity of high performance concrete at early age. It has been argued and demonstrated experimentally that such concrete undergoes autogenous shrinkage due to self-desiccation at early age under restrained condition, nd, as a result, internal tensile stress may develop, leading to micro cracking and macro cracking. This shrinkage-introduced crack produces a major serviceability problem for concrete structures. One possible method to reduce cracking due to autogenous shrinkage is the addition of expansive additive. Tests conducted by many researches have shown the beneficial effects of addition of expansive additive for reducing the risk of autogenous shrinkage-introduced cracking. However, the research on hydration model of expansion additive has been hardly researched up to now. This paper presents a study of the hydration model of Ettringite-Gypsum type expansive additive. As a result of comparing forecast values with experiment value, proposed model is shown to expressible of hydration of expansive additive.

SULT1A1 Arg213His Polymorphism and Lung Cancer Risk: a Meta-analysis

  • Liao, Shao-Guang;Liu, Lu;Zhang, Ying-Yi;Wang, Ying;Wang, Ya-Jie
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.579-583
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    • 2012
  • Background: The SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism is reported to be associated with lung cancer risk. However, this relationship remains controversial. For better understanding a meta-analysis was therefore performed. Methods: An extensive search was performed to identify all case-control studies investigating association between SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism and lung cancer risk. The strength was assessed by odds ratio (OR) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI). Results: A total of five publications covering 1,669 cases and 1,890 controls were included in this meta-analysis. No significant association between SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism and lung cancer risk was observed in overall comparisons in all genetic models (dominant model: OR=1.33, 95%CI=1.00-1.76, P=0.05; additive model: OR=1.30, 95%CI=0.93-1.81, P=0.12; recessive model: OR=1.21, 95%CI=0.89-1.66, P=0.23). However, on subgroup analysis, an elevated risk in mixed populations with variant His allele was revealed in the dominant model (OR=1.66, 95% CI=1.06-2.62, P=0.03). Furthermore, the SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer in both females and males in the dominant model (females: OR=1.72, 95%CI=1.29-2.27, P=0.00; males: OR=1.46, 95%CI=1.19-1.78, P=0.00). No significant association between this polymorphism and different smoking status (smokers and non-smokers) and the other ethnicities (Asians and Caucasians) was shown. Conclusions: The results of this meta-analysis indicate that the SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism is not associated with lung cancer risk in Asians and Caucasians, but possible elevation for genotype (GA/AA) in mixed populations and males and females needs further investigation.

'Pneumonia Weather': Short-term Effects of Meteorological Factors on Emergency Room Visits Due to Pneumonia in Seoul, Korea

  • Sohn, Sangho;Cho, Wonju;Kim, Jin A;Altaluoni, Alaa;Hong, Kwan;Chun, Byung Chul
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.82-91
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: Many studies have explored the relationship between short-term weather and its health effects (including pneumonia) based on mortality, although both morbidity and mortality pose a substantial burden. In this study, the authors aimed to describe the influence of meteorological factors on the number of emergency room (ER) visits due to pneumonia in Seoul, Korea. Methods: Daily records of ER visits for pneumonia over a 6-year period (2009-2014) were collected from the National Emergency Department Information System. Corresponding meteorological data were obtained from the National Climate Data Service System. A generalized additive model was used to analyze the effects. The percent change in the relative risk of certain meteorological variables, including pneumonia temperature (defined as the change in average temperature from one day to the next), were estimated for specific age groups. Results: A total of 217 776 ER visits for pneumonia were identified. The additional risk associated with a $1^{\circ}C$ increase in pneumonia temperature above the threshold of $6^{\circ}C$ was 1.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.37 to 2.61). Average temperature and diurnal temperature range, representing within-day temperature variance, showed protective effects of 0.07 (95% CI, 0.92 to 0.93) and 0.04 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.98), respectively. However, in the elderly (65+ years), the effect of pneumonia temperature was inconclusive, and the directionality of the effects of average temperature and diurnal temperature range differed. Conclusions: The term 'pneumonia temperature' is valid. Pneumonia temperature was associated with an increased risk of ER visits for pneumonia, while warm average temperatures and large diurnal temperature ranges showed protective effects.

Meta-Analysis of the Association between the rs8034191 Polymorphism in AGPHD1 and Lung Cancer Risk

  • Zhang, Le;Jin, Tian-Bo;Gao, Ya;Wang, Hui-Juan;Yang, Hua;Feng, Tian;Chen, Chen;Kang, Long-Li;Chen, Chao
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.2713-2717
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    • 2015
  • Background: Possible associations between the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs8034191 in the aminoglycosidephosphotransferase domain containing 1 (AGPHD1) gene and lung cancer risk have been studied by many researchers but the results have been contradictory. Materials and Methods: A computerized search for publications on rs8034191 and lung cancer risk was performed. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to assess the association between rs8034191 and lung cancer risk with 13 selected case-control studies. Sensitivity analysis, test of heterogeneity, cumulative meta-analysis, and assessment of bias were also performed. Results: A significant association between rs8034191 and lung cancer susceptibility was found using the dominant genetic model (OR=1.344, 95% CI: 1.285-1.406), the additive genetic model (OR=1.613, 95% CI: 1.503-1.730), and the recessive genetic model (OR=1.408, 95% CI: 1.319-1.503). Moreover, an increased lung cancer risk was found with all genetic models after stratification of ethnicity. Conclusions: The association between rs8034191 and lung cancer risk was significant using multiple genetic models, suggesting that rs8034191 is a risk factor for lung cancer. Further functional studies of this polymorphism and lung cancer risk are warranted.

Four Polymorphisms in the Cytochrome P450 1A2 (CYP1A2) Gene and Lung Cancer Risk: a Meta-analysis

  • Bu, Zhi-Bin;Ye, Meng;Cheng, Yun;Wu, Wan-Zhen
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.14
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    • pp.5673-5679
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    • 2014
  • Background: Previous published data on the association between CYP1A2 rs762551, rs2069514, rs2069526, and rs2470890 polymorphisms and lung cancer risk have not allowed a definite conclusion. The present meta-analysis of the literature was performed to derive a more precise estimation of the relationship. Materials and Methods: 8 publications covering 23 studies were selected for this meta-analysis, including 1,665 cases and 2,383 controls for CYP1A2 rs762551 (from 8 studies), 1,456 cases and 1,792 controls for CYP1A2 rs2069514 (from 7 studies), 657 cases and 984 controls for CYP1A2 rs2069526 (from 5 studies) and 691 cases and 968 controls for CYP1A2 rs2470890 (from 3 studies). Results: When all the eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis for the CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism, significantly increased lung cancer risk was observed in the dominant model (OR=1.21, 95 % CI=1.00-1.46). In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, significantly increased risk of lung cancer was observed in Caucasians (dominant model: OR=1.29, 95%CI=1.11-1.51; recessive model: OR=1.33, 95%CI=1.01-1.75; additive model: OR=1.49, 95%CI=1.12-1.98). There was no evidence of significant association between lung cancer risk and CYP1A2 rs2069514, s2470890, and rs2069526 polymorphisms. Conclusions: In summary, this meta-analysis indicates that the CYP1A2 rs762551 polymorphism is linked to an increased lung cancer risk in Caucasians. Moreover, our work also points out the importance of new studies for rs2069514 associations in lung cancer, where at least some of the covariates responsible for heterogeneity could be controlled, to obtain a more conclusive understanding about the function of the rs2069514 polymorphism in lung cancer development.

Credit Scoring Using Splines (스플라인을 이용한 신용 평점화)

  • Koo Ja-Yong;Choi Daewoo;Choi Min-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.543-553
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    • 2005
  • Linear logistic regression is one of the most widely used method for credit scoring in credit risk management. This paper deals with credit scoring using splines based on Logistic regression. Linear splines and an automatic basis selection algorithm are adopted. The final model is an example of the generalized additive model. A simulation using a real data set is used to illustrate the performance of the spline method.