• Title/Summary/Keyword: Accident prediction model

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Influence of Modelling Approaches of Diffusion Coefficients on Atmospheric Dispersion Factors (확산계수의 모델링방법이 대기확산인자에 미치는 영향)

  • Hwang, Won Tae;Kim, Eun Han;Jeong, Hae Sun;Jeong, Hyo Joon;Han, Moon Hee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2013
  • A diffusion coefficient is an important parameter in the prediction of atmospheric dispersion using a Gaussian plume model, and its modelling approach varies. In this study, dispersion coefficients recommended by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (U. S. NRC's) regulatory guide and the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's (CNSC's) regulatory guide, and used in probabilistic accident consequence analysis codes MACCS and MACCS2 have been investigated. Based on the atmospheric dispersion model for a hypothetical accidental release recommended by the U. S. NRC, its influence to atmospheric dispersion factor was discussed. It was found that diffusion coefficients are basically predicted from a Pasquill- Gifford curve, but various curve fitting equations are recommended or used. A lateral dispersion coefficient is corrected with consideration for the additional spread due to plume meandering in all models, however its modelling approach showed a distinctive difference. Moreover, a vertical dispersion coefficient is corrected with consideration for the additional plume spread due to surface roughness in all models, except for the U. S. NRC's recommendation. For a specified surface roughness, the atmospheric dispersion factors showed differences up to approximately 4 times depending on the modelling approach of a dispersion coefficient. For the same model, the atmospheric dispersion factors showed differences by 2 to 3 times depending on surface roughness.

Building a Traffic Accident Frequency Prediction Model at Unsignalized Intersections in Urban Areas by Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (적응 뉴로-퍼지를 이용한 도시부 비신호교차로 교통사고예측모형 구축)

  • Kim, Kyung Whan;Kang, Jung Hyun;Kang, Jong Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.2D
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    • pp.137-145
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    • 2012
  • According to the National Police Agency, the total number of traffic accidents which occurred in 2010 was 226,878. Intersection accidents accounts for 44.8%, the largest portion of the entire traffic accidents. An research on the signalized intersection is constantly made, while an research on the unsignalized intersection is yet insufficient. This study selected traffic volume, road width, and sight distance as the input variables which affect unsignalized intersection accidents, and number of accidents as the output variable to build a model using ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System). The forecast performance of this model is evaluated by comparing the actual measurement value with the forecasted value. The compatibility is evaluated by R2, the coefficient of determination, along with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE), the indicators which represent the degree of error and distribution. The result shows that the $R^2$ is 0.9817, while MAE and MSE are 0.4773 and 0.3037 respectively, which means that the explanatory power of the model is quite decent. This study is expected to provide the basic data for establishment of safety measure for unsignalized intersection and the improvement of traffic accidents.

Prediction of Evacuation Time for Emergency Planning Zone of Uljin Nuclear Site (울진원전 방사선비상계획구역에 대한 소개시간 예측)

  • Jeon, In-Young;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2002
  • The time for evacuation of residents in emergency planning zone(EPZ) of Uljin nuclear site in case of a radiological emergency was estimated with traffic analysis. Evacuees were classified into 4 groups by considering population density, local jurisdictions, and whether they ate residents or transients. The survey to investigate the behavioral characteristics of the residents was made for 200 households and included a hypothetical scenario explaining the accident situation and questions such as dwelling place, time demand for evacuation preparation transportation means for evacuation, sheltering place, and evacuation direction. The microscopic traffic simulation model, CORSIM, was used to simulate the behavior of evacuating vehicles on networks. The results showed that the evacuation time required for total vehicles to move out from EPZ took longer in the daytime than at night in spite that the delay times at intersections were longer at night than in the daytime. This was analyzed due to the differences of the trip generation time distribution. To validate whether the CORSIM model fan appropriately simulate the congested traffic phenomena assumable in case of emergency, a benchmark study was conducted at an intersection without an actuated traffic signal near Uljin site during the traffic peak-time in the morning. This study indicated that the predicted output by the CORSIM model was in good agreement with the observed data. satisfying the purpose of this study.

Prediction of Travel Time and Longitudinal Dispersion for Water Pollutant by Using Unit Concentration Response Function (단위오염도틀 이용한 하천 오염물질의 이동시간과 종확산 예측)

  • Kim, Soo-Jun;Kim, Hung-Soo;Kim, Byung-Sik;Seoh, Byung-Ha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.5 s.166
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    • pp.395-403
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    • 2006
  • This study suggests the use of a simple method, called the unit concentration response function(UCRF) for predicting travel time and dispersion of pollutants with the minimum information of study area instead of numerical models which are widely used In the Previous studies. However, the numerical models require time-consuming, tedious effort, and many data sets. So we derive the UCRF using some components such as travel time, peak concentration, and passage time of pollutant etc. We use the regression equation for the estimations of components which were developed from the investigations of many river basins in USA. This study used the regression equaiton for the UCRF to the accident of Dichloromethane leak into the Nakdong River occurred on June 30, 1994 and applied the UCRF for the predictions of travel time and dispersion. The predictions were compared with the results by QUAL2E model. The results by the regression equaiton and QUAL2E model had a good agreement between observed and simulated concentrations. Therefore, the regression equation for the UCRF which can simply estimate travel time and concentration of pollutants showed its applicability for the ungaged basin.

A Study on the Analysis Effect Factors of Illegal Parking Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 불법주차 영향요인 분석)

  • Lee, Chang-Hee;Kim, Myung-Soo;Seo, So-Min
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2014
  • With the rapid development in the economy and other fields as well, the standard of living in South Korea has been improved, and consequently, the demand of automobiles has quickly increased. It leads to various traffic issues such as traffic congestion, traffic accident, and parking problem. In particular, this illegal parking caused by the increase in the number of automobiles has been considered one of the main reasons to bring about traffic congestion as intensifying any dispute between neighbors in relation to a parking space, which has been also coming to the fore as a social issue. Therefore, this study looked into Daejeon Metropolitan City, the city that is understood to have the highest automobile sharing rate in South Korea but with relatively few cases of illegal parking crackdowns. In order to investigate the theoretical problems of the illegal parking, this study conducted a decision-making tree model-based Exhaustive CHAID analysis to figure out not only what makes drivers park illegally when they try to park vehicles but also those factors that would tempt the drivers into the illegal parking. The study, then, comes up with solutions to the problem. According to the analysis, in terms of the influential factors that encourage the drivers to park at some illegal areas, it was learned that these factors, the distance, a driver's experience of getting caught, the occupation and the use time in order, have an effect on the drivers' deciding to park illegally. After working on the prediction model, four nodes were finally extracted. Given the analysis result, as a solution to the illegal parking, it is necessary to establish public parking lots additionally and first secure the parking space for the vehicles used for living and working, and to activate the campaign for enhancing illegal parking crackdown and encouraging civic consciousness.

Comparison Of CATHARE2 And RELAP5/MOD3 Predictions On The BETHSY 6.2% TC Small-Break Loss-Of-Coolant Experiment (CATHARE2와 RELAP5/MOD3를 이용한 BETHSY 6.2 TC 소형 냉각재상실사고 실험결과의 해석)

  • Chung, Young-Jong;Jeong, Jae-Jun;Chang, Won-Pyo;Kim, Dong-Su
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.126-139
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    • 1994
  • Best-estimate thermal-hydraulic codes, CATHARE2 V1.2 and RELAP5/MOD3, hate been assessed against the BETHSY 6.2 tc six-inch cold leg break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) test. Main objective is to analyze the overall capabilities of the two codes on physical phenomena of concern during the small break LOCA i.e. two-phase critical flow, depressurization, core water level de-pression, loop seal clearing, liquid holdup, etc. The calculation results show that the too codes predict well both in the occurrences and trends of major two-phase flow phenomena observed. Especially, the CATHARE2 calculations show better agreements with the experimental data. However, the two codes, in common, show some deviations in the predictions of loop seal clearing, collapsed core water level after the loop seal clearing, and accumulator injection behaviors. The discrepancies found from the comprision with the experimental data are larger in the RELAP5 results than in the CATHARE2. To analyze the deviations of the two code predictions in detail, several sensitivity calculations have been performed. In addition to the change of two-phase discharge coefficients for the break junction, fine nodalization and some corrections of the interphase drag term are made. For CATHARE2, the change of interphase drag force improves the mass distribution in the primary side. And the prediction of SG pressure is improved by the modification of boundary conditions. For RELAP5, any single input change doesn't improve the whole result and it is found that the interphase drag model has still large uncertainties.

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Evaluation of Thermal Insulation and Hypothermia for Development of Life Raft (해상 구명정의 단열성능평가 및 저체온증 예측 수치해석 연구)

  • Hwang, Se-Yun;Jang, Ho-Sang;Kim, Kyung-Woo;Lee, Jang-Hyun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.485-491
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    • 2015
  • The technology review about risk of hypothermia of victim according to heat transfer characteristic of life raft and sea state can use accident correspondence of standing and sinking of ship. This study studied heat transfer characteristics required for the design of life raft and thermal insulation property analysis and evaluation methods. In addition, it is study for comprehend the risk of hypothermia and suggest analysis result that is experiment of thermal insulation property and body temperature property for decide of prediction the body temperature decline Thermal Analysis apply the finite element analysis method is comprehended the property of heat conductivity, convective effect of sea water and properties changes according to property of insulation material. it measure the heat flux with attach temperature sensor on body in order to comprehend the variation of body temperature with boarding a life raft experiment on a human body. This study validate results by comparing variation of temperature measured from experiment on a body with variation of temperature from finite element analysis model. Also, the criteria of hypothermia was discussed through result of finite element analysis.

A Study on the Causes of Injury Codes by Case-Based Injury Code of External Causes Frequency Analysis (사례 중심의 손상코드 별 손상외인코드 빈도수 분석에 따른 손상코드 발생 원인에 관한 연구)

  • Eun-Mee Choi;Hye-Eun Jin;Jin-Hyoung Jeong
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.50-59
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the patients hospitalized with damage by injury code based on data for two years in 2020 and 2021 of A institution located in Gangneung, Gangwon-do. Analyzed the injury codes with a large number of occurrences per year, and analyzed the injury codes of external causes accordingly. The cause of the injury code was analyzed by analyzing the frequency of the injury code of external causes. Injury code S0650 had the highest frequency of injury code of external causes W189 and X5999, which was judged to be the cause of traumatic subdural hemorrhage without open intracranial wounds when falling in an unspecified place or toilet. Injury code S72120 had the highest frequency of injury code of external causes W010 and W180, and it was judged to be the cause of obstructive femoral intertrochanteric fracture that occurs when falling in the residence. The injury code S32090 had a high frequency of X5999, and it was analyzed that it caused the obstructive fracture of the lumbar region due to an accident caused by exposure in an unspecified place, and the injury code S72.090 had a high frequency of W010 and W180. It was confirmed that the cause of the obstructive fracture of the femoral neck was mainly caused by slipping or slipping in the residence, and the injury code S0220 had a high frequency of the injury code of external causes Y049, and it was confirmed that the fibula was fractured mainly by the force or fist. As such, the cause of the injury code was analyzed by analyzing the frequency of the injury code for each injury code of external causes.

Estimation of fire Experiment Prediction by Utility Tunnels Fire Experiment and Simulation (지하공동구 화재 실험 및 시뮬레이션에 의한 화재 설칠 예측 평가)

  • 윤명오;고재선;박형주;박성은
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 2001
  • The utility tunnels are the important facility as a mainstay of country because of the latest communication developments. However, the utilities tunnel is difficult to deal with in case of a fire accident. When a cable burns, the black smoke containing poisonous gas will be reduced. This black smoke goes into the tunnel, and makes it difficult to extinguish the fire. Therefore, when there was a fire in the utility tunnel, the central nerves of the country had been paralyzed, such as property damage, communication interruption, in addition to inconvenience for people. This paper is based on the fire occurred in the past, and reenacting the fire by making the real utilities tunnel model. The aim of this paper is the scientific analysis of the character image of the fire, and the verification of each fire protection system whether it works well after process of setting up a fire protection system in the utilities tunnel at a constant temperature. The fire experiment was equipped with the linear heat detector, the fire door, the connection water spray system and the ventilation system in the utilities tunnel. Fixed portion of an electric power supply cable was coated with a fire retardant coating, and a heating tube was covered with a fireproof. The result showed that the highest temperature was $932^{\circ}c$ and the linear heat detector was working at the constant temperature, and it pointed at the place of the fire on the receiving board, and Fixed portion of the electric power supply cable coated with the fire retardant coating did not work as the fireproof. The heating tube was covered with the fireproof about 30 minutes.

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