• Title/Summary/Keyword: Accelerated Failure Time Model

Search Result 81, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

Statistical Life Prediction on IASCC of Stainless Steel for PWR Core Internals (가압형 경수로 스테인리스강 내부 구조물의 조사유기 응력부식균열에 대한 통계적 수명 예측)

  • Kim, Sung-Woo;Hwang, Seong-Sik;Lee, Yeon-Ju
    • Korean Journal of Metals and Materials
    • /
    • v.50 no.8
    • /
    • pp.583-589
    • /
    • 2012
  • This work is concerned with a statistical approach to the life prediction on irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC) of stainless steel (SS) for core internals of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). The previous results of the time-to-failure of IASCC measured on neutron-irradiated stainless steel components were statistically analyzed in terms of stress and irradiation. The accelerating life testing model of IASCC of cold worked Type 316 SS was established based on an inverse power model with two stress-variables, the applied stress and irradiation dose. Considering the variation of the yield strength and applied stress with the irradiation dose in the model, the remaining life of the baffle former bolt was statistically predicted during operation under complex environments of stress and irradiation.

4:2:1 compromise plans using Min-Max method (Min-Max 방법을 적용한 4:2:1 절충적 계획)

  • 최재혁;강창욱
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.21 no.47
    • /
    • pp.1-10
    • /
    • 1998
  • Testing high reliability devices under nomal operating condition is difficult, because the devices are not likely to fail in the relatively short time available for tests. For most applications it is necessary to accelerate the causes of failure by increasing a stress above its nomal value. Previous accelerated life test(ALT) plans have shown how to find optimum allocation, lowest stress and sample size subject to minimizing the variance of mean life estimator. In these ALT plans, the highest acceptable test-stress was assumed to be specified in advance by the experimenter but there is no guidance for selecting it. This assumption is, however, inappropriate for many applications. Testing devices at too-high stress levels can invalidate the extrapolation model, or introduce failure mechanisms that are not anticipated under nomal operating conditions. In this paper, we propose new 4:2:1 compromise plans using Min-Max method to minimize this risk and present minimized test-stress levels(max, middle, min), and find sample allocation based on Min-Max 4:2:1 compromise plans. In result, we compare previous 4:2:1 compromise plans specified maximum test-stress with Min-Max 4:2:1 compromise plans minimized maximum test-stress.

  • PDF

High Temperature Reliability Study of Low Frequency In-door Electrodeless Lamp (무전극형광램프의 고온 신뢰성 연구)

  • Jeong, Ui-Hyo;Hyung, Jae-Phil;Lim, Seong-Yong;Lim, Hong-Woo;Jang, Joong-Soon
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.203-207
    • /
    • 2014
  • Electrodeless lamp is famous for its long life. But its reliability is dependent not only on electrodes but also on materials and structures. To evaluate end product's reliability, we studied high temperature durability by $60^{\circ}C$, $75^{\circ}C$ and $90^{\circ}C$ temperature tests, and predicted failure times by an exponential model through regression analysis. However, the test showed that temperature does not affect degradation of electrodeless lamps. Their luminous outputs degrade during the early time of the test (till 250 hours) and then converge to a saturation points. Also, '410nm ~ 530nm' spectrum degrades more than other spectra.

High Temperature and High Humidity Test for MEMS Devices (MEMS 디바이스의 고온고습 신뢰성시험)

  • Lee, Y.G.;Park, B.H.;Jang, J.S.
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.487-500
    • /
    • 2005
  • MEMS devices usually have micro actuators contained in a cavity, If the pressure level of testing chamber is higher than that of cavity, moisture will ingress into the cavity, which may cause critical failure such as stiction of the moving parts. To design an accelerated life test based on high temperature and high humidity, such a phenomena should be considered. In this study, a throughput model that can estimate the amount of moisture ingress is used to decide the testing time and conditions of a high temperature and high humidify test.

  • PDF

Bayesian bi-level variable selection for genome-wide survival study

  • Eunjee Lee;Joseph G. Ibrahim;Hongtu Zhu
    • Genomics & Informatics
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.28.1-28.13
    • /
    • 2023
  • Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a clinical syndrome characterized by the onset and evolution of cognitive impairments, often considered a transitional stage to Alzheimer's disease (AD). The genetic traits of MCI patients who experience a rapid progression to AD can enhance early diagnosis capabilities and facilitate drug discovery for AD. While a genome-wide association study (GWAS) is a standard tool for identifying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to a disease, it fails to detect SNPs with small effect sizes due to stringent control for multiple testing. Additionally, the method does not consider the group structures of SNPs, such as genes or linkage disequilibrium blocks, which can provide valuable insights into the genetic architecture. To address the limitations, we propose a Bayesian bi-level variable selection method that detects SNPs associated with time of conversion from MCI to AD. Our approach integrates group inclusion indicators into an accelerated failure time model to identify important SNP groups. Additionally, we employ data augmentation techniques to impute censored time values using a predictive posterior. We adapt Dirichlet-Laplace shrinkage priors to incorporate the group structure for SNP-level variable selection. In the simulation study, our method outperformed other competing methods regarding variable selection. The analysis of Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data revealed several genes directly or indirectly related to AD, whereas a classical GWAS did not identify any significant SNPs.

THINNED PIPE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM OF KOREAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • Lee, S.H.;Lee, Y.S.;Park, S.K.;Lee, J.G.
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-11
    • /
    • 2015
  • Local wall thinning and integrity degradation caused by several mechanisms, such as flow accelerated corrosion (FAC), cavitation, flashing and/or liquid drop impingements, are a main concern in carbon steel piping systems of nuclear power plant in terms of safety and operability. Thinned pipe management program (TPMP) had been developed and optimized to reduce the possibility of unplanned shutdown and/or power reduction due to pipe failure caused by wall thinning in the secondary side piping system. This program also consists of several technical elements such as prediction of wear rate for each component, prioritization of components for inspection, thickness measurement, calculation of actual wear and wear rate for each component. Decision making is associated with replacement or continuous service for thinned pipe components. Establishment of long-term strategy based on diagnosis of plant condition regarding overall wall thinning is also essential part of the program. Prediction models of wall thinning caused by FAC had been established for 24 operating nuclear plants. Long term strategies to manage the thinned pipe component were prepared and applied to each unit, which was reflecting plant specific design, operation, and inspection history, so that the structural integrity of piping system can be maintained. An alternative integrity assessment criterion and a computer program for thinned piping items were developed for the first time in the world, which was directly applicable to the secondary piping system of nuclear power plant. The thinned pipe management program is applied to all domestic nuclear power plants as a standard procedure form so that it contributes to preventing an accident caused by FAC.

Working Conditions and Firm Survival (임직원 근로조건과 기업생존)

  • Cho, Seung-Mo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.157-180
    • /
    • 2018
  • This paper empirically analyzes how working conditions of employees and executives affect Korean companies' survival. To this end, a survival analysis based on the accelerated failure time model is conducted from the end of December 2012 to the end of September 2018 on the 2012 year-end financial data for corporations whose common stocks have ever been listed either in the KOSPI market or in the KOSDAQ market with fiscal year ending at the end of December. The analysis shows that the average wage level per employee and the number of executives relative to the number of employees threaten while the average duration of service for female employees prolongs firm survival. Here, the average wage level per employee has turned out to worsen firm survivability regardless of the gender of employees in question while the average duration of service improves firm survivability only in case the employees are female: the average duration of service for male employees or the entire employees has turned out not to have any statistically significant influence on firm survival. The average compensation per executive and the percentage of temporary employees have turned out not to have any statistically significant influence on firm survival while the percentage of female employees has shown statistically significant positive influence on firm survival in some, although not all, models employed in our study. These results are expected to be a good reference in the course of our reaching agreements regarding the improvement of working conditions either between firms and employees or among the members of the entire society.

Damage and vibrations of nuclear power plant buildings subjected to aircraft crash part I: Model test

  • Li, Z.R.;Li, Z.C.;Dong, Z.F.;Huang, T.;Lu, Y.G.;Rong, J.L.;Wu, H.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.53 no.9
    • /
    • pp.3068-3084
    • /
    • 2021
  • Investigations of large commercial aircraft impact effect on nuclear power plant (NPP) buildings have been drawing extensive attentions, particularly after the 9/11 event, and this paper aims to experimentally assess the damage and vibrations of NPP buildings subjected to aircraft crash. In present Part I, two shots of reduce-scaled model test of aircraft impacting on NPP building were carried out. Firstly, the 1:15 aircraft model (weighs 135 kg) and RC NPP model (weighs about 70 t) are designed and prepared. Then, based on the large rocket sled loading test platform, the aircraft models were accelerated to impact perpendicularly on the two sides of NPP model, i.e., containment and auxiliary buildings, with a velocity of about 170 m/s. The strain-time histories of rebars within the impact area and acceleration-time histories of each floor of NPP model are derived from the pre-arranged twenty-one strain gauges and twenty tri-axial accelerometers, and the whole impact processes were recorded by three high-speed cameras. The local penetration and perforation failure modes occurred respectively in the collision scenarios of containment and auxiliary buildings, and some suggestions for the NPP design are given. The maximum acceleration in the 1:15 scaled tests is 1785.73 g, and thus the corresponding maximum resultant acceleration in a prototype impact might be about 119 g, which poses a potential threat to the nuclear equipment. Furthermore, it was found that the nonlinear decrease of vibrations along the height was well reflected by the variations of both the maximum resultant vibrations and Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV). The present experimental work on the damage and dynamic responses of NPP structure under aircraft impact is firstly presented, which could provide a benchmark basis for further safety assessments of prototype NPP structure as well as inner systems and components against aircraft crash.

Analysis of Loan Comparison Platform User's Default Risk (대출중개 플랫폼별 고객의 채무불이행 리스크 비교)

  • SeongWoo Lee;Yeonkook J. Kim
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.119-131
    • /
    • 2024
  • In recent years, there has been a significant growth in loan comparson services offered by fintech platforms in South Korea. However, it has been reported that loan comparison platform users tend to have a higher risk of default compared to non-users. This paper investigates the difference in platform-specific credit risk factors using survival analysis models - Kaplan-Meier curves and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. Our findings show that, relative to non-users, users of loan comparison platforms are characterized by elevated default rates, a greater propensity for home ownership, lower credit scores, and shorter loan durations. Furthermore, our AFT models elucidate the variance in default risk among the various loan comparison service platforms, highlighting the imperative for customized strategies that address the unique risk profiles of customers on each platform.

Life Time Prediction and Physical Properties of Chloroprene Rubber Aged by Seawater (클로로프렌 고무의 해수에 의한 물성 변화 및 노화 수명 예측)

  • Lee, Chan Koo;Yun, Ju Ho;Kim, Il;Shim, Sang Eun
    • Elastomers and Composites
    • /
    • v.47 no.1
    • /
    • pp.9-17
    • /
    • 2012
  • Herein, life time prediction based on the deterioration of physical properties of chloroprene rubber (CR)aged by heat and seawater was performed. CR samples were experienced an accelerated test at $80^{\circ}C$, $100^{\circ}C$, $120^{\circ}C$ for heat aging, and $40^{\circ}C$, $60^{\circ}C$, $80^{\circ}C$ for seawater aging for 20,000 hrs. The change in tensile strength, maximum elongation,hardness was measured. As a result, the decrease in elongation was a major factor causing failure. The life time estimated using an Arrhenius model was 125 years at $23^{\circ}C$ for thermal aging and 9 years at $23^{\circ}C$ for seawater aging. SEM and elemental analysis reveal that cracks were generated and the content of oxygen was increased for CR agined by seawater. FT-IR spectrum shows the new C-O and C = O bonds were generated by the chemical reaction with seawater. Also, the glass transtion temperature was increased and the thermal decomposition was decreased by seawater aging.