• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.107-121
• /
• 2011

To assess the impact of climate change on water quality in an impounded river basin, this study estimated future air temperature and rainfall in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080 by statistically downscaling the simulation results from two GCM models combined with two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). Both scenarios were selected from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) suggested by IPCC. The A2 scenario represents an extreme condition whereas the B1 scenario represents a clean and energy efficient condition which is similar to that of study basin. With the results of estimated climate factors and land use data, the discharge and the concentrations of BOD, TN and TP in the Andong dam basins were simulated using the SWAT model. The change in BOD concentration for the B1 emission scenario was greater than the A2 scenario in the annual increase range and the pollution level. The concentration of TN was decreased during March? June which is drought period and increased again afterward. In contrast to TN, the concentration of TP was generally decreased. The change in TP concentration was greater for the B1 scenario than the A2 scenario.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.127-147
• /
• 2023

This study is trying to analyze the economic effect of replacing thermal power generation, one of the government's carbon-neutral policies, with new and renewable energy. For this analysis, scenario A is set to replace 100% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario B is set to replace 60% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy. In addition, costs are incurred when replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario 1 is the same cost as the current cost, and scenario 2 is120% higher than the current cost. Therefore, when converting thermal power generation to new and renewable energy, the scenarios are largely organized into four cases. In the case of replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, the production inducement coefficient of thermal power generation decreased from the current level regardless of the scenario. However, the value-added inducement coefficient and the greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are lower than the current level when thermal power is converted to renewable energy by 100%, while the value-added inducement coefficient and greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are higher than the current level. In addition, the greenhouse gas emission induction coefficient of most industries was found to decrease, while the production induction coefficient and the value-added induction coefficient increased. Scenario A seems appropriate because the purpose of the government's policy is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by converting thermal power into new and renewable energy. However, as a result of this, the production inducement coefficient and value-added inducement coefficient of some industries decrease, so the government's support policy is needed to solve this problem

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.59-68
• /
• 2014

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.59-73
• /
• 2010

One of the most important issues for projecting future water resources and establishing climate change adaptation strategies is 'uncertainty'. In Korea, climate change research results were very heterogeneous even in a same basin, but there have been few climate change studies dealt with the uncertainty reduction. This is because emission scenarios, GCMs, downscaling, and rainfall-runoff models that were used in the previous studies were almost all different. In this research, fifty one GCM scenarios based A and B emission scenarios were downloaded and then compared with the observed values for a period from January 2001 to December 2008. The downloaded GCM scenarios in general simulated well the observed but did not simulated well the observed precipitation especially for the flood season in Korea. The accuracy of each GCM scenario was measured with the model efficiency, PDF-based, and Relative Entropy methodology. Among the selected GCM scenarios with three methodologies, the four common GCM scenarios(CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, B1), MIROC3.2medress(NIES, B1), CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, A2), CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, A1B) were finally selected. Results of the four selected GCMs were heterogeneity and projected increases of precipitation for the Korean Peninsula by from 27.36% to 12.49%, respectively. It seems very risky to rely a water planning or a management policy on use of a single climate change scenario and from this research results. Therefore, the four selected GCM scenarios proposed quantitatively were considered firstly for the water supply in the dry season and the drought management strategy in the Korean Peninsula for the future.

• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• v.34 no.2
• /
• pp.253-264
• /
• 2012

In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be $18-23^{\circ}C$. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with $1/6^{\circ}{\times}1/6^{\circ}$ grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.54 no.1
• /
• pp.47-54
• /
• 2012

Agriculture is dependable to weather condition and its change so that it is necessary to understand the impacts of climatic change. The aim of this study is to analyze the change of consumptive use of water and rice yield due to climate change using CERES-Rice. In this study, the weather data of three emission scenario of A1B, A2 and B1 created from CGCM (Coupled General Circulation Model) were used from 2011 to 2100, and downscaled daily weather data were simulated using LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator). The input data for cultivated condition for simulating CERSE (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis)-Rice were created referring to standard cultivation method of paddy rice in Korea. The results showed that consumptive uses of water for paddy rice were projected decreasing to 4.8 % (2025s), 9.1 % (2055s), 12.6 % (2085s) comparing to the baseline value of 403.5 mm in A2 scenario. The rice yield of baseline was 450.7 kg/10a and projected increasing to -0.4 % (2025s), 3.9 % (2055s), 17.5 % (2085s) in A1B scenario. The results demonstrated relationships between consumptive use of water and rice yields due to climate change and can be used for the agricultural water resources development planning and cultivation method of paddy rice for the future.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.48-59
• /
• 2023

Ground-level ozone affects human health and plant growth. Ozone is produced by chemical reactions between oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from anthropogenic and biogenic sources. In this study, two different land cover and emission factor datasets were input to the MEGAN v2.1 emission model to examine how these parameters contribute to the biogenic emissions and ozone production. Four input sensitivity scenarios (A, B, C and D) were generated from land cover and vegetation emission factors combination. The effects of BVOCs emissions by scenario were also investigated. From air quality modeling result using CAMx, maximum 1 hour ozone concentrations were estimated 62 ppb, 60 ppb, 68 ppb, 65 ppb, 55 ppb for scenarios A, B, C, D and E, respectively. For maximum 8 hour ozone concentration, 57 ppb, 56 ppb, 63 ppb, 60 ppb, and 53 ppb were estimated by scenario. The minimum difference by land cover was up to 25 ppb and by emission factor that was up to 35 ppb. From the modeling performance evaluation using ground ozone measurement over the six regions (East Seoul, West Seoul, Incheon, Namyangju, Wonju, and Daegu), the model performed well in terms of the correlation coefficient (0.6 to 0.82). For the 4 urban regions (East Seoul, West Seoul, Incheon, and Namyangju), ozone simulations were not quite sensitive to the change of BVOC emissions. For rural regions (Wonju and Daegu) , however, BVOC emission affected ozone concentration much more than previously mentioned regions, especially in case of scenario C. This implies the importance of biogenic emissions on ozone production over the sub-urban to rural regions.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
• /
• v.43 no.1
• /
• pp.36-51
• /
• 2008

As the global warming has influenced on various sectors including agriculture, forestry, fisheries and health, it is essential to project more accurate future climate for an assessment of climate change impact and adaptation strategy. This study examines spatial distribution of onset dates and durations of season decomposed by applying a lowpass filtering using observed 30-year (1971-2000) data and projected 2090s data based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario in South Korea. In general, the distributions of spring and winter onset date are affected by latitudes, topography and proximity to oceans. However, onset dates of summer and autumn are a little affected by proximity to oceans and topography than by latitudes. In the 2090s (2091-2100), the onset dates of spring begin about 40 days earlier and the onset dates of summer begin 25-30 days earlier as compare with present time. On the other hand, the onset dates of winter begin about 50 days later in the southern and eastern coastal area and in the southern inland. The onset dates of autumn begin about 20 days later. In the 2090s, summer duration is longer and winter duration is shorter as compare with present time at southern and eastern coastal area.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.57 no.4
• /
• pp.101-112
• /
• 2015

This study was conducted to predict greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from a radish field by future climate change scenario. A radish field located at Chuncheon-si Gangwon-do was selected, and A1B Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change) was applied to simulate the future potential climate change. Rainfall and temperature data were predicted to be increased by 8.4 % and 1.9 % in 2040s, 35.9 % and 27.0 % in 2060s, 19.2 % and 30.8 % in 2090s, respectively, compared to the climate data in 2010s. The $N_2O$, $CO_2$, and $CH_4$ emission were estimated to be increased by 0.4 up to 2.4 kg/ha/yr, by 500.5 up to 734.5 kg/ha/year, and by 29.4 up to 160.4 kg/ha/yr, which were resulted from the global warming potential (GWP) of 14.5~21.7 $CO_2$/ha/year caused by the amount changes of rainfall, temperature, manure amendment, and fertilizer applied in fields. One distinct feature of the study result was that the changes of $N_2O-N$, $CH_4-C$ and $CO_2-C$ with future potential climate change simulation were varied by soil texture. Therefore it was concluded that there is a need to apply appropriate amount of manure amendment needs and to consider soil texture as well.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
• /
• v.42 no.6
• /
• pp.835-850
• /
• 2007

This study examines long-term trends of onset dates and durations of season decomposed by applying a lowpass filtering using observed 80-year(1921-2000) data and projected 2040s and 2090s data based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario in South Korea. As recent climate changes on seasonal cycles in South Korea, the onset dates of spring and summer began earlier after 1970s. But onset dates of autumn and winter were delayed. Winter duration was more shortened during the post-1990 period. Summer duration is longer and winter duration is shorter at southern and eastern coastal area. The different of summer duration and winter duration in coastal area was longer than over the inland. The reduction in winter duration in South Korea agrees with results in overall global warming trends as a climate change signal. Future model output data predict that winter will disappear in Gangneung, Busan and Mokpo in the 2090s