• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.147-151
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• 2007

인위적인 온실가스 증가의 영향으로 지구의 기온이 상승하고 있으며, 우리나라에서도 이러한 전 지구적인 온난화 추세를 상회하는 경향을 보이고 있다. 20세기 후반부터 기후변화에 따른 강수량 및 집중호우의 증가 추세가 보고되고 있으며, 이에 따른 피해 또한 증가하고 있다. 이러한 이상기후 현상이 전 세계적으로 빈번히 발생하여 가용 수자원의 변동이 커지고 있다. 추가적인 댐 건설이 어려운 상황이고, 댐 운영의 불확실성에 의한 현실적인 운영의 어려움으로 인하여 보수적인 댐 운영이 이루어지고 있는 실정이므로, 한정된 수자원의 효율적인 이용과 예측이 요구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기상연구소에서 개발된 A2, B2 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 다목적댐에서의 용수공급능력의 변화에 대한 평가를 수행하였다. 대규모 유역의 대표적인 다목적댐을 선정하고 기후변화 시나리오별 유입량을 분석하였으며, 이를 저수지 모의운영 기법을 이용하여 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 각 댐의 신뢰도 95% 용수공급능력과 예상발전량을 산정함으로써 가용수자원을 평가하였다. 또한 다목적댐의 과거 실적 유입량 자료를 이용한 모의운영 결과와 비교하여 제시하였다. 과거 실적에 의한 결과와 비교할 때, 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 향후 국내 가용 수자원량에도 큰 변화가 있을 것으로 예측되었다. 이로부터 댐 운영에 있어서 홍수기의 안정적인 댐관리와 갈수기의 적절한 수자원 분배를 위한 방향을 제시할 수 있다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 기후변화에 따른 저수지의 효율적인 운영을 위한 유역의 수자원 영향 평가에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.댐의 순기능에 대한 정량적인 분석을 수행하였다. 또한 댐별 방류량을 변동하여 하류 주요지점에 미치는 유황개선효과를 정량화하였다. 마지막으로 댐의 효율을 최대화한 하류확보가능하천유지유량을 월별평균량으로 산정하였다. 이는 향후 오염총량제 기준유량 및 환경용수의 법제화를 통한 하천유지용수의 증가시 비구조적 대책의 공급가능 최대량으로 활용가능할 것으로 사료된다.원에서 인위적으로 방류한 양이 많았기 때문으로 추정할 수 있다. 두 지점의 1월 유출이 100 % 이상인 것은 동절기 하천 결빙으로 인한 유량파악이 힘든 것으로 나타났다. 1월의 하천수위는 계측기에 기록된 수위값으로 유량을 산정한 것이다. 3월, 10월, 12월의 유출이 많은 것은 전월말 발생한 강우의 영향으로 크게 나타났다.다. 5. 초장의 절대치는 품종간에 차이는 있으나 비교적 조파구간에는 초장에 큰 변이가 없었고 파종기가 늦어짐에 따라 짧아졌다. 초장의 신장속도는 파종기가 늦어짐에 따라 현저하게 빨라지고 특히 조생종이 만생종보다 더욱 가속적인 경향이었다. 따라서 최고초장과 최저초장과의 절대치의 차이는 조생종일수록 적고 만생종일수록 큰 격차를 보이었다. 6. 간직경에 있어서도 만생종은 일반적으로 조기파종할수록 굵고, 조생종과 중생종은 4월 25일 파종기가 가장 굵은 편이며 이보다 파종기가 지연 가늘어지는 경향이었다. 7. 간중은 품종의 조만생에 따라 약간의 차이는 있으나 대체로 적기(4월 25일~5월 15일)보다 조기 혹은 만기 파종하면 작아지나 파종기 이동에 따른 간중의 변화는 품종의 조만성에 따라 양상을 달리하여 조생종은

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.98 no.6
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• pp.799-805
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• 2009

To construct the production system of forest biomass as a small scale heating energy source, energy availability of wood-chip was examined by cost and energy balance analysis in the production process. The costs to produce wood-chip of 1 kg was calculated by yarding machines and their operational gradient conditions. As a result, 195.45~210.54 won/kg were required as production costs of wood-chip. Input energy rate (%) which is output to input energy in wood-chip production process were showed as 26.58~27.38%. Energy input rate by operational gradient was not significantly difference, and scenario B with tower yarder system appeared by more efficient than scenario A with tractor yarding system in opposition to production costs analysis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.11
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• pp.1121-1130
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• 2012

Projected changes and their impacts on water quality are simulated in response to climate change stressors. CGHR (T63) simulation on the A1B scenario is converted to regional scale data using a statistical down-scaling method and applied to SWAT model to assess water quality impacts in Nakdong River basin. The results demonstrate that rainfall-runoff and pollutant loading in the future (2011~2100) will clearly increase as compared to the last 30-year average. The rate of pollutant loading increase is expected to continue its acceleration until 2040s. Runoff also shows similar patterns to the precipitation, increasing by 60%. Accordingly, the runoff increase results in escalation of pollutant loading by 35~45% for TSS and 5~20% for T-P. This phenomenon is more pronounced in the upper basin during winter and spring season.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.65-74
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• 2016

This study mainly focuses on urban regeneration project as a countermeasure to resolve climate change issues by analyzing the carbon-reduction effect of Jeonju test-bed cases. First, an urban regeneration project is designed for city, Jeonju by analyzing its environmental problems and potential improvement. Then, carbon emission and reduction amounts are evaluated for different businesses and scenarios. Carbon emission sources are classified according to a standard suggested by IPCC, and the emissions are calculated by various standard methods. The result shows that carbon emission amount in Jeonju test-bed is 102,149 tCO2eq. The fact that 70% of the emission from energy sector originates from buildings implies that urban regeneration projects can concentrate on building portions to effectively reduce carbon emission. It is also projected carbon emission will decrease by 3,826tCo2eq in 2020 compared to 2011, reduction mainly based on overall population and industry shrinkage. When urban regeneration projects are applied to 5 urban sectors (urban environment, land use, green transportation, low carbon energy, and green buildings) total of 10,628tCO2eq is reduced and 4,857tCO2 (=15.47%) when only applied to the green building sector. Moreover, different carbon reduction scenarios are set up to meet each goal of different sectors. The result shows that scenario A, B, and C each has 5%, 11%, and 15% of carbon reduction, respectively. It is recommended to apply scenario B to achieve 11% reduction goal in a long term. Therefore, this research can be a valuable guideline for planning future urban regeneration projects and relative policies by analyzing the present urban issues and suggesting improvement directions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.389-406
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to examine the climate change impact assessment on Korean water resources considering the uncertainties of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and hydrological models. The 3 different emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1) and 13 GCMs' results are used to consider the uncertainties of the emission scenario and GCM, while PRMS, SWAT, and SLURP models are employed to consider the effects of hydrological model structures and potential evapotranspiration (PET) computation methods. The 312 ensemble results are provided to 109 mid-size sub-basins over South Korean and Gaussian kernel density functions obtained from their ensemble results are suggested with the ensemble mean and their variabilities of the results. It shows that the summer and winter runoffs are expected to be increased and spring runoff to be decreased for the future 3 periods relative to past 30-year reference period. It also provides that annual average runoff increased over all sub-basins, but the increases in the northern basins including Han River basin are greater than those in the southern basins. Due to the reason that the increase in annual average runoff is mainly caused by the increase in summer runoff and consequently the seasonal runoff variations according to climate change would be severe, the climate change impact on Korean water resources could intensify the difficulties to water resources conservation and management. On the other hand, as regards to the uncertainties, the highest and lowest ones are in winter and summer seasons, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.121-131
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• 2008

This study was conducted to delineate temporal and spatial patterns of potential risk of cold injury by combining the short-term cold hardiness of Campbell Early grapevine and the IPCC projected climate winter season minimum temperature at a landscape scale. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270m cell spacing ("High Definition Digital Temperature Map", HD-DTM) were prepared for the current climatological normal year (1971-2000) based on observations at the 56 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations using a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting land surface effects (e.g., land use, topography, and elevation). The same procedure was applied to the official temperature projection dataset covering South Korea (under the auspices of the IPCC-SRES A2 and A1B scenarios) for 2071-2100. The dormancy depth model was run with the gridded datasets to estimate the geographical pattern of any changes in the short-term cold hardiness of Campbell Early across South Korea for the current and future normal years (1971-2000 and 2071-2100). We combined this result with the projected mean annual minimum temperature for each period to obtain the potential risk of cold injury. Results showed that both the land areas with the normal cold-hardiness (-150 and below for dormancy depth) and those with the sub-threshold temperature for freezing damage ($-15^{\circ}C$ and below) will decrease in 2071-2100, reducing the freezing risk. Although more land area will encounter less risk in the future, the land area with higher risk (>70%) will expand from 14% at the current normal year to 23 (A1B) ${\sim}5%$ (A2) in the future. Our method can be applied to other deciduous fruit trees for delineating geographical shift of cold-hardiness zone under the projected climate change in the future, thereby providing valuable information for adaptation strategy in fruit industry.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.2B
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• pp.215-224
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• 2008

The effect of streamflow considering future land use change and vegetation index information by climate change scenario was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) model. The model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1999-2002) daily observed streamflow data for the upstream watershed ($260.4km^2$) of Gyeongan water level gauging station. By applying CA-Markov technique, the future land uses (2030, 2060, 2090) were predicted after test the comparison of 2004 Landsat land use and 2004 CA-Markov land use by 1996 and 2000 land use data. The future land use showed a tendency that the forest and paddy decreased while urban, grassland and bareground increased. The future vegetation indices (2030, 2060, 2090) were estimated by the equation of linear regression between monthly NDVI of NOAA AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature of 5 years (1998-2002). Using CCCma CGCM2 simulation result based on SRES A2 and B2 scenario (2030s, 2060s, 2090s) of IPCC and data were downscaled by Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Random Cascade Model (SST-RCM) technique, the model showed that the future runoff ratio was predicted from 13% to 34% while the runoff ratio of 1999-2002 was 59%. On the other hand, the impact on runoff ratio by land use change showed about 0.1% to 1% increase.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.229-243
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• 2013

Hydrological simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model was used to simulate streamflow and snow depth at Pyengchang watershed. The selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparision Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) were utilized to evaluate streamflow and snow depth driven by future climate scenarios, including A1, A1B, and B1. Bias-correlation and temporal downscaling processes have been performed to minimize systematic errors between GCMs and HSPF. Based on simulated monthly streamflow and snow depth after calibration, the results indicate that HSPF performs well. The correlation coefficient between the observed and simulated monthly streamflow is 0.94. Snow depth simulations also show high correlation coefficient, which is 0.91. The results indicate that snow depth in 2018 at Pyongchang winter olympic venues will decrease by 17.62%, 9.38%, and 7.25% in January, February, and March respectively, based on streamflow realizations induced by all GCMs ensembles.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.1B
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• pp.23-33
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• 2009

Climate change, abnormal weather, and unprecedented extreme weather events have appeared globally. Interest in their size, frequency, and changes in spatial distribution has been heightened. However, the events do not display regional or regular patterns or cycles. Therefore, it is difficult to carry out quantified evaluation of their frequency and tendency. For more objective evaluation of extreme weather events, this study proposed a rainfall extreme weather index (STARDEX, 2005). To compare the present and future spatio-temporal distribution of extreme weather events, each index was calculated from the past data collected from 66 observation points nationwide operated by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Tendencies up to now have been analyzed. Then, using SRES B2 scenario and 2045s (2031-2050) data from YONU CGCM simulation were used to compute differences among each of future extreme weather event indices and their tendencies were spatially expressed.The results shows increased rainfall tendency in the East-West inland direction during the summer. In autumn, rainfall tendency increased in some parts of Gangwon-do and the south coast. In the meanwhile, the analysis of the duration of prolonged dry period, which can be contrasted with the occurrence of rainfall or its concentration, showed that the dryness tendency was more pronounced in autumn rather than summer. Geographically, the tendency was more remarkable in Jeju-do and areas near coastal areas.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.253-264
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• 2012

In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be $18-23^{\circ}C$. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with $1/6^{\circ}{\times}1/6^{\circ}$ grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.