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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.5.389

Future Korean Water Resources Projection Considering Uncertainty of GCMs and Hydrological Models  

Bae, Deg-Hyo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
Jung, Il-Won (Dept. of Geography, Portland State University)
Lee, Byung-Ju (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
Lee, Moon-Hwan (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.44, no.5, 2011 , pp. 389-406 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objective of this study is to examine the climate change impact assessment on Korean water resources considering the uncertainties of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and hydrological models. The 3 different emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1) and 13 GCMs' results are used to consider the uncertainties of the emission scenario and GCM, while PRMS, SWAT, and SLURP models are employed to consider the effects of hydrological model structures and potential evapotranspiration (PET) computation methods. The 312 ensemble results are provided to 109 mid-size sub-basins over South Korean and Gaussian kernel density functions obtained from their ensemble results are suggested with the ensemble mean and their variabilities of the results. It shows that the summer and winter runoffs are expected to be increased and spring runoff to be decreased for the future 3 periods relative to past 30-year reference period. It also provides that annual average runoff increased over all sub-basins, but the increases in the northern basins including Han River basin are greater than those in the southern basins. Due to the reason that the increase in annual average runoff is mainly caused by the increase in summer runoff and consequently the seasonal runoff variations according to climate change would be severe, the climate change impact on Korean water resources could intensify the difficulties to water resources conservation and management. On the other hand, as regards to the uncertainties, the highest and lowest ones are in winter and summer seasons, respectively.
Keywords
water resources; climate change impact assessment; uncertainty; hydrological model; potential evapotranspiration method; Korea;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 11  (Citation Analysis)
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