• Title/Summary/Keyword: 3모수 와이블 분포

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깁스표본기법을 이용한 와이블분포의 모수추정

  • 이우동;이창순;강상길
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 1998
  • 와이블분포의 척도모수와 형상모수를 베이지안 방법을 이용하여 추정한다. 깁스표본법을 사용하여 모수들에 대한 추정, 결합사후확률분포와 주변사후확률분포를 구한다. 9개의 열 전달기기자료와 10개의 인위적인 자료를 이용하여 제안된 방법을 적용하여 사례를 연구한다.

Derivation of the Fisher information matrix for 3-parameters Weibull distribution using mathematica (매스매티카를 이용하여 3-모수를 갖는 와이블분포에 대한 피셔 정보행렬의 유도)

  • Yang, Ji-Eun;Baek, Hoh-Yoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2009
  • Fisher information matrix plays an important role in statistical inference of unknown parameters. Especially, it is used in objective Bayesian inference which derives to the posterior distribution using a noninformative prior distribution and is an example of metric functions in geometry. The more parameters for estimating in a distribution are, the more complicate derivation of the Fisher information matrix for the distribution is. In this paper, we derive to the Fisher information matrix for 3-parameters Weibull distribution which is used in reliability theory using Mathematica programs.

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A Weibull Model Building Technique for Reliability Assessment with Limited failure Data (신뢰도 평가에서 제한된 데이터를 이용한 와이블분포 모형화 기법)

  • Kim, Gwang-Won
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.109-115
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    • 2006
  • The Weibull distribution is a good candidate for accurate probabilistic model with its rich shape-forming ability and relatively simple CDF(cumulative distribution function). If there are sufficient information to get convincible mean and variance for a probabilistic event, reliable parameters of the Weibull distribution can be determined uniquely. However, sufficient information is not given as usual. There needs more deliberate model building method for that case. This Paper presents an effective parameter estimation technique for Weibull distribution with limited failure data.

A Study on Statistical Distribution of Muzzle Velocity of 155mm Propelling Charge (155mm 추진장약 포구속도의 확률분포 특성 연구)

  • Park, Sung-Ho;Park, No-Seok;Choi, Beong-Doo;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2009.11a
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    • pp.339-343
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    • 2009
  • The aim of the study was to investigate the statistical distribution of muzzle velocity of 155mm propelling charge K676 which is for the use of K9, a korean 155mm self-propelled artillery. A plenty of muzzle velocity data were collected from lot assessment test of propelling charge. The muzzle velocity of each test round is compensated by reference round. In the present work, the detailed statistical analysis of the muzzle velocity data is carried out using probability models including normal, Weibull 2-parameter and Weibull 3-parameter distributions. The results of goodness of fit test showed that the normal distribution described more appropriately the experimentally measured muzzle velocity data and the Weibull distribution is also applicable. The coefficient of variation showed that the mass production capability of each propelling charge lot has been maintained.

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Statistical Analysis for Fatigue Life Evaluation of Vehicle Muffler (자동차용 머플러의 피로수명평가를 위한 통계적 분석)

  • Choi, Ji-Hun;Lee, Yong-Jun;Yoon, Jin-Ho;Kang, Sung-Su
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.365-372
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    • 2013
  • In this study, a statistical method for evaluating the fatigue life of a vehicle muffler was used to obtain reliable fatigue data using a limited number of specimens. Cyclic bending tests were conducted using specimens manufactured to be exactly the same as the mufflers installed in cars that are currently in use. To estimate the fatigue life by comparing the data obtained during the fatigue tests, the most suitable probability density function for the normal, lognormal, and Weibull distributions was selected. A goodness-of-fit test was performed on the probability distributions, and then a Weibull distribution using the least square method was selected. By using the selected Weibull distribution, the probability-moment-life curves (P-M-N curve) reflecting the fatigue characteristics were suggested as the data for the reliable design of a muffler.

A Evaluation of P-S-N Curve of Low Pressure Steam Turbine Blade Steel (저압 증기 터빈블레이드 강의 P-S-N 선도 평가)

  • Kim, Chul-Su;Jung, Hwa-Young;Kim, Jung-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.11a
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    • pp.272-277
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    • 2001
  • In order to evaluate variation of fatigue data of the LP steam turbine blade steel, it is important to estimate P - S - N curves to accurately define the probability distributions. In this study, new procedure is introduced to determine the expression of P - S - N curves. For this purpose, 3-parameter Weibull distribution was found to be most appropriate among assumed distributions when the probability distributions of the fatigue life were examined by the proposed analysis. Furthermore, parameter estimation for P - S - N curves was performed using various optimization to maximize the correlation coefficient. As a result of this, sequential linear programing method is used for estimation of P - S - N curves.

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A study on the production process and wear life distributions of brake pads for passenger cars (승용차용 브레이크 패드의 공정분석 및 수명분포 탐색)

  • Woong, Hong-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.485-492
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we studied process capability analysis for brake-pad manufacturing system and considered Weibull, normal and logistic distributions for density estimation of wear life of brake pads for a passenger car with a real data. These three distributions are seem to work well. Estimated percentiles of brake pads can be used to evaluate the design criteria and customers' need for brake pads.

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Reliability Analysis for Decoy using Maintenance Data (정비 데이터를 이용한 기만체계 신뢰도 분석)

  • Gwak, Hye-Rim;Hong, Seok-Jin;Jang, Min-Ki
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.10
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    • pp.82-88
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    • 2018
  • The decoy defensive weapon system is a one-shot system. Reliability is maintained through periodic inspection and high reliability is required to confirm whether or not the functioning is normal after launch. The maintenance cycle of a decoy was set up without target reliability and reliability prediction during the development period. However, the number of operations in the military has been increasing, necessitating the optimization of the maintenance cycle. Reliability is analyzed using the maintenance data of a decoy operated for several decades and the optimal maintenance cycle is suggested. In chapter 2, data collection and classification methods are presented and analysis methodology is briefly introduced. In chapter 3, the data distribution analysis and fitness verification confirmed that applying the Weibull distribution is the most suitable for the maintenance data of the decoy. In chapter 4, we present the analysis result of percentile, survival probability and MTBF and the optimal maintenance cycle was derived from the reliability analysis. Finally, we suggest the application methods for this paper in the future.

Reliability Estimation of Steam Turbine Blade Using First Order Reliability Method (FORM을 이용한 증기 터빈블레이드의 신뢰성 평가)

  • 황진호;김철수;김정규
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2002.06a
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    • pp.199-204
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    • 2002
  • 본 연구에서는 저압 증기 터빈블레이드의 안전성 확보를 위하여 작용응력 및 강도의 변동성을 고려한 확률론적 해석을 수행하였다. 정상상태에서 작용응력은 이론 및 유한요소해석에 의해서 얻을 수 있으며, 최대 von-Mises 응력은 215.4MPa이다. 회전굽힘 하중하에서의 피로한도는 응력비 R= -1에서 계단식 시험법을 이용하여 구하였으며, 이의 확률론적 특성에 가장 적합한 분포는 3 모수 와이블 분포이다. 그리고 신뢰성에 미치는 다양한 인자들의 영향은 영향계수(sensitivity factor)를 이용하여 정량적으로 평가하였다.

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Statistical Properties for Tensile strength of Composite Materials Patched with AFRP on 2024-T3 Aluminum Alloy plate (Al 2024-T3 판에 AFRP를 접착한 복합재료의 인장강도에 대한 통계적 특성)

  • Yun, Han-Gi;An, Won-Gi;Heo, Seon-Cheol
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.24 no.7 s.178
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    • pp.1810-1816
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    • 2000
  • A hybrid composite APAL(Aramid Patched Aluminum alloy) , consisting of Al 2024-T3 aluminum alloy plate sandwiched between two aramid/epoxy laminates, was developed. The characteristics of tensile s trength were investigated and statistical properties of tensile strength were studied in terms of Weibull distribution probability with number of AFRP laminates. The tensile strength of APAL was inproportional to number of AFRP laminates and followed the two-parametic Weibull distribution.