• Title/Summary/Keyword: 회귀분석모델

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Climate Change Impact on Nonpoint Source Pollution in a Rural Small Watershed (기후변화에 따른 농촌 소유역에서의 비점오염 영향 분석)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Jang, Tae-Il;Park, Seung-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.209-221
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of climate change on the nonpoint source pollution in a small watershed using a mid-range model. The study area is a basin in a rural area that covers 384 ha with a composition of 50% forest and 19% paddy. The hydrologic and water quality data were monitored from 1996 to 2004, and the feasibility of the GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading function) model was examined in the agricultural small watershed using the data obtained from the study area. As one of the studies on climate change, KEI (Korea Environment Institute) has presented the monthly variation ratio of rainfall in Korea based on the climate change scenario for rainfall and temperature. These values and observed daily rainfall data of forty-one years from 1964 to 2004 in Suwon were used to generate daily weather data using the stochastic weather generator model (WGEN). Stream runoff was calibrated by the data of $1996{\sim}1999$ and was verified in $2002{\sim}2004$. The results were determination coeff, ($R^2$) of $0.70{\sim}0.91$ and root mean square error (RMSE) of $2.11{\sim}5.71$. Water quality simulation for SS, TN and TP showed $R^2$ values of 0.58, 0.47 and 0.62, respectively, The results for the impact of climate change on nonpoint source pollution show that if the factors of watershed are maintained as in the present circumstances, pollutant TN loads and TP would be expected to increase remarkably for the rainy season in the next fifty years.

Analysis of promising countries for export using parametric and non-parametric methods based on ERGM: Focusing on the case of information communication and home appliance industries (ERGM 기반의 모수적 및 비모수적 방법을 활용한 수출 유망국가 분석: 정보통신 및 가전 산업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Jinny;Yoo, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.175-196
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    • 2022
  • Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.

Physiological Responses to Drought Stress of Seven Evergreen Hardwood Species (상록활엽수 7수종의 건조스트레스에 대한 생리적 반응)

  • Jin, Eon-Ju;Cho, Min-Gi;Bae, Eun-Ji;Park, Junhyeong;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Choi, Myung Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.4
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    • pp.397-407
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    • 2017
  • This research aims to analyze and compare the drought resistance of 7 species of landscape trees commonly grown in Korea. The 7 species are: Camellia japonica, Rhaphiolepis indica, Quercus glauca, Machilus thunbergii, Daphniphyllum macropodum, Dendropanax morbifera and Cinnamomum camphora. In order to analyze their drought resistance, the samples were left without irrigation for 30 days (05/09/2016 ~ 05/10/2016), during which period their respective drought resistor, relative water content, electrolyte elution figures and proline content were measured. As the non-irrigation proceeded, C. camphora was the first to wither, followed by D. morbifera, then D. macropodum, then M. thunbergii, then Q. glauca, then R. indica then finally C. japonica. Of the 7 species, Q. glauca, C. japonica and R. indica can be considered highly drought resistant, since they survived for longer than 3 weeks without irrigation. Relative water content (RWC) plummeted dramatically after the first 15 days of non-irrigation. Whereas RWC readings of C. camphora, D. morbifera, D. macropodum and M. tunbergii dropped by 40% or more, the other 4 species reported a relatively low rate of decrease at 20% or lower. The Camellia japonica, the R. indica and Q. glauca, which were the species with relatively high drought resistance, showed low proline content and electrolyte elution figures, whereas those of C. camphora, D. macropodum, D. morbifera and M. tunbergii were higher. Analysis through the nonlinear regression analysis logistic model showed that non-irrigation proved fatal for the 7 sample species in a range of 22.7 to 37.6 days. The C. japonica, R. indica, Q. glauca and M. tunbergii demonstrated a high drought resistance of 30 days or longer, whereas C. camphora, D. morbifera and D. macropodum had a low resistance of 25 days or less to drought from lack of water. In conclusion, out of the 7 species of broad-leaved evergreen trees tested, C. japonica, R. indica and Q. glauca seem to be suitable for use as landscape trees, owing to their high drought resistance.

Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome and Related Risk Factors of Elderly Residents in Andong Rural Area 1. Based on the Anthropometric Measurements and Health Behaviors (안동 농촌지역 중년 및 노인 주민의 대사증후군 유병율과 관련 위험요인 분석 1. 신체계측결과와 건강습관을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hye-Sang;Kwon, Chong-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.511-517
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    • 2010
  • This study was performed to estimate the prevalence and the risk factors of metabolic syndrome in Andong rural area. A total of 1,431 people (533 males, 898 females) aged over 45 years participated in this study in 2003. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 38.2% (male 23.5%, female 46.9%, p<0.001). As age increased, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome increased in female, but not in male. The major underlying components of metabolic syndrome were high blood pressure (67.1%), low HDL-cholesterol (60.6%), and abdominal obesity (39.9%). The distinctive component for male was high blood pressure (70.1%), and for female, low HDL-cholesterol (73.6%), high blood pressure (65.3%), and abdominal obesity (54.5%). Subjects having more than one component were 94.7%. The risk factors for metabolic syndrome were analyzed using the multiple logistic regression method according to gender and expressed as age-adjusted odds ratio (OR). The results of comparing female to male (OR=2.953), and of comparing obese by % body fat (M: OR=5.786, F: OR=13.498) or BMI (M: OR=3.782, F: OR=13.301) to normal body weight showed significantly higher risk for metabolic syndrome (p<0.001). Health related habits, such as smoking, alcohol drinking, and exercise, didn't show any effect on metabolic syndrome. This study revealed that the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was significantly higher in female subjects compared to both male and female, and high blood pressure was the main cause of metabolic syndrome. We suggest that the strategy for prevention or reducing the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in this area should be concentrated on reducing high blood pressure through lowering obesity and abdominal obesity.

Optimal hot water extraction conditions of fermented Polygonum multiflorum root by Lentinula edodes pegler mycelials using response surface methodology (반응표면 분석법에 의한 표고균사체발효 적하수오 열수 추출조건의 최적화)

  • Oh, Junseok;Hong, Jae-Heoi;Park, Tae-Young;Shin, Ji-eun;Kim, Kyung-Je;Jin, Seong-Woo;Ban, Seung-Eon;Koh, Young-Woo;Im, Seung-Bin;Seo, Kyoung-Sun
    • Journal of Mushroom
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.22-30
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    • 2018
  • This study was performed to determine optimal extraction conditions of fermented Polygonum multiflorum root by Lentinula edodes (JMI10079) Pegler mycelials using response surface methodology. The independent factors were extraction temperature (X1: $40-100^{\circ}C$), extraction time (X2: 2-10 hrs.), and the ratio of water to sample (X3: 33-100 mg/mL). Their effects were assessed on dependent variables of the extract properties, which included soluble solid contents (Y1), $^{\circ}Brix$ of sample extract (Y2), total polyphenol content (Y3), total flavonoid content (Y4), 2,2'-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulphonic acid) radical cation scavenging activity (Y5) and 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging activity (Y6). The experimental data obtained were fit to a second-order polynomial equation. The optimal extraction conditions for fermented P. multiflorum root were: X1: $91.22^{\circ}C$, X2: 7.72 hrs, and X3: 39.71 mg/mL.

Effect of Dietary Factors on Bone Mineral Density in Korean College Women (한국 여대생의 골밀도에 영향을 미치는 식이 요인 분석)

  • 백희영;송윤주
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.464-472
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to investigate dietary and other factors affecting bone mineral density in young Korean collage women. Thirty subjects were recruited; the mean age was 22.1 years and the mean age at menarche was 12.6 years. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured in the spine (LS), femoral neck (FN), ward's triangle (WT), and femoral trochanter (FT) by Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA), and physical activity was assessed by a questionnaire. Dietary intake data were obtained 8 times by using a 24 hour recall method to evaluate the subjects' usual diet. Bone mineral densities of lumbar spine, femoral neck, ward's triangle and femoral trochanter were 1.149 g/$\textrm{cm}^2$, 0.980 g/$\textrm{cm}^2$, 0.936 g/$\textrm{cm}^2$ and 0.759 g/$\textrm{cm}^2$ respectively. The met energy intake of subjects was 1,790 kcal, and calcium and iron intakes were found to be inadequate compared to the Korean RDA. The BMD of the lumbar spine was significantly and positively related to the BMI and intake of vitamin C, carbohydrate, potatoes, fruits and plant food. The BMD of the femur (FN, WT, FT) was positively related to the BMI, to carbohydrate and fruit intake, and to the percentage of plant food in total food intake. Multiple recession analysis showed that fruit intake was significantly related to the BMD of the LS. The subjects'ages and fruit intakes were significantly related to the BMD of the femur (FN, WT, FT). These results indicate that higher fruit intakes may have a beneficial effect on bone mineral density.

Optimization for Ammonia Decomposition over Ruthenium Alumina Catalyst Coated on Metallic Monolith Using Response Surface Methodology (반응표면분석법을 이용한 루테늄 알루미나 메탈모노리스 코팅촉매의 암모니아 분해 최적화)

  • Choi, Jae Hyung;Lee, Sung-Chan;Lee, Junhyeok;Kim, Gyeong-Min;Lim, Dong-Ha
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.218-226
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    • 2022
  • As a result of the recent social transformation towards a hydrogen economy and carbon-neutrality, the demands for hydrogen energy have been increasing rapidly worldwide. As such, eco-friendly hydrogen production technologies that do not produce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are being focused on. Among them, ammonia (NH3) is an economical hydrogen carrier that can easily produce hydrogen (H2). In this study, Ru/Al2O3 catalyst coated onmetallic monolith for hydrogen production from ammonia was prepared by a dip-coating method using a catalyst slurry mixture composed of Ru/Al2O3 catalyst, inorganic binder (alumina sol) and organic binder (methyl cellulose). At the optimized 1:1:0.1 weight ratio of catalyst/inorganic binder/organic binder, the amount of catalyst coated on the metallic monolith after one cycle coating was about 61.6 g L-1. The uniform thickness (about 42 ㎛) and crystal structure of the catalyst coated on the metallic monolith surface were confirmed through scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. Also, a numerical optimization regression equation for NH3 conversion according to the independent variables of reaction temperature (400-600 ℃) and gas hourly space velocity (1,000-5,000 h-1) was calculated by response surface methodology (RSM). This model indicated a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.991 and had statistically significant predictors. This regression model could contribute to the commercial process design of hydrogen production by ammonia decomposition.

Success Factor in the K-Pop Music Industry: focusing on the mediated effect of Internet Memes (대중음악 흥행 요인에 대한 연구: 인터넷 밈(Internet Meme)의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • YuJeong Sim;Minsoo Shin
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.48-62
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    • 2023
  • As seen in the recent K-pop craze, the size and influence of the Korean music industry is growing even bigger. At least 6,000 songs are released a year in the Korean music market, but not many can be said to have been successful. Many studies and attempts are being made to identify the factors that make the hit music. Commercial factors such as media exposure and promotion as well as the quality of music play an important role in the commercial success of music. Recently, there have been many marketing campaigns using Internet memes in the pop music industry, and Internet memes are activities or trends that spread in various forms, such as images and videos, as cultural units that spread among people. Depending on the Internet environment and the characteristics of digital communication, contents are expanded and reproduced in the form of various memes, which causes a greater response to consumers. Previously, the phenomenon of Internet memes has occurred naturally, but artists who are aware of the marketing effects have recently used it as an element of marketing. In this paper, the mediated effect of Internet memes in relation to the success factors of popular music was analyzed, and a prediction model reflecting them was proposed. As a result of the analysis, the factors with the mediated effect of 'cover effect' and 'challenge effect' were the same. Among the internal success factors, there were mediated effects in "Singer Recognition," the genres of "POP, Dance, Ballad, Trot and Electronica," and among the external success factors, mediated effects in "Planning Company Capacity," "The Number of Music Broadcasting Programs," and "The Number of News Articles." Predictive models reflecting cover effects and challenge effects showed F1-score at 0.6889 and 0.7692, respectively. This study is meaningful in that it has collected and analyzed actual chart data and presented commercial directions that can be used in practice, and found that there are many success factors of popular music and the mediating effects of Internet memes.

Survey on the Foodborne Illness Experience and Awareness of Food Safety Practice Among Korean Consumers (식중독 경험 및 식품안전에 대한 인식 조사)

  • Park, Gyung-Jin;Chun, Seok-Jo;Park, Ki-Hwan;Hong, Chong-Hae;Kim, Jeong-Weon
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.139-145
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the awareness and practice of Korean consumer on food safety. A telephone survey was conducted from 1,040 adults randomly selected from each province and large city of Korea. Therefore, 12.4% of the subjects experienced foodborne illness at least once a year and 0.3% was hospitalized due to the illness. General restaurant (37.2%) and home (21.2%) were the main causative place of foodborne illness, and the most frequently associated foods were meat and meat products (41.7%) and fish and fish products (18.7%). Regarding the causative agent of foodborne illness, the respsondents were aware of Cholera (75.5%), Vibrio gastroenteritis (73%), Shigellosis (65.5%), Bacillary dysentery (65.5%) and Salmonellosis (47.5%) very well; however very few were aware of Listeriosis (9.9%) and brucellosis (8.3%) and ever believed they were not food-related illness. When the survey data were analyzed based on 3 models (Model 1: Knowledge about the pathogens associated food and water, Model 2: The awareness of food safety, Model 3: Attitudes and behavior about foodborne disease prevention and measure) by Multiple regression analysis. The results showed that the awareness of the causative agent of foodborne illness was significantly related with the previous experience of foodborne illness (OR: 1.714) followed by education level (OR: 0.536) and married status (OR: 0.527). The awareness of food safety was significatly related with education level (OR: 0.702). Education (OR: 0.816) and gender (OR:0.650) were the main factors affecting the awareness of the practice to prevent foodborne illness. However, the previous experience of foodborne illness and food safety education, and the awareness of food safety did not show any correlation, suggesting that the experience and awareness of foodborne illness do not affect the real practice of food safety.

Selection of Optimal Models for Predicting the Distribution of Invasive Alien Plants Species (IAPS) in Forest Genetic Resource Reserves (산림생태계 보호구역에서 외래식물 분포 예측을 위한 최적 모형의 선발)

  • Lim, Chi-hong;Jung, Song-hie;Jung, Su-young;Kim, Nam-shin;Cho, Yong-chan
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.589-600
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    • 2020
  • Effective conservation and management of protected areas require monitoring the settlement of invasive alien species and reducing their dispersion capacity. We simulated the potential distribution of invasive alien plant species (IAPS) using three representative species distribution models (Bioclim, GLM, and MaxEnt) based on the IAPS distribution in the forest genetic resource reserve (2,274ha) in Uljin-gun, Korea. We then selected the realistic and suitable species distribution model that reflects the local region and ecological management characteristics based on the simulation results. The simulation predicted the tendency of the IAPS distributed along the linear landscape elements, such as roads, and including some forest harvested area. The statistical comparison of the prediction and accuracy of each model tested in this study showed that the GLM and MaxEnt models generally had high performance and accuracy compared to the Bioclim model. The Bioclim model calculated the largest potential distribution area, followed by GLM and MaxEnt in that order. The Phenomenological review of the simulation results showed that the sample size more significantly affected the GLM and Bioclim models, while the MaxEnt model was the most consistent regardless of the sample size. The optimal model overall for predicting the distribution of IAPS among the three models was the MaxEnt model. The model selection approach based on detailed flora distribution data presented in this study is expected to be useful for efficiently managing the conservation areas and identifying the realistic and precise species distribution model reflecting local characteristics.