• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.237-260
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• 1996

본 논문에서는 Duan(1995)이 개발한 GARCH 주식옵션가격결정모형을 통화옵션에 적용시켜 GARCH 통화옵션가격결정모형을 유도한 다음, 이를 Garman-Kohlhagen 모형과 유효성을 비교하여 다음과 같은 연구결과를 얻었다. 만기별 및 옵션의 상태별(OTM, ATM, ITM)로 GARCH 통화옵션가격결정모형의 가격오차가 Garman-Kohlhagen 모형보다 일관되게 낮게 나타났다. 이는 GARCH 통화옵션가격결정모형이 Garman-Kohlhagen모형보다 통화옵션의 평가에 더 유용한 모형임을 의미한다. 따라서 통화옵션의 가격을 예측할 때는 환율변동의 이분산성을 고려하여 환율의 변동성을 추정함으로써 통화옵션가격의 예측력을 제고시킬 수 있다고 생각한다. 그러나 GARCH 통화옵션가격결정모형의 모형가격이 시장가격과 상당한 편차를 보이는 경우도 있기 때문에 향후 통화옵션가격결정모형을 계속 발전시키는 과정에서 이자율의 확률적 특성을 반영하거나 환율변동의 점프특성을 도입해야 한다고 생각한다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.493-502
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• 2010

For establishing forecasting confidence interval for exchange rate, it is critical to estimate distribution of the exchange rate properly. In this thesis, we use block bootstrap method to estimate the distribution of the exchange rate via sum of its daily ratios. As a result, an easier and more accurate forecasting method is provided.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.21 no.3_4
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• pp.63-104
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• 1999

본 연구는 외환위기 발생 이후 취해진 고금리정책이 이후의 환율안정에 기여하였는가를 살펴보고 있다. 완전 변동환율제도로 이행된 1997년 12월 이후의 일별자료를 대상으로 표준적인 시계열모형을 사용하여 분석한 주요 결과는 금리상승이 환율의 평가절상을 유도하였다는 것이다. 축약형모형(reduced form regression)에서 나타난 환율의 금리에 대한 탄력성은, 부도율과 같은 위험(risk)변수를 통제한 단순회귀방정식뿐 아니라 VAR모형에서도 1을 소폭 상회하는 정도의 추정치를 얻을 수 있었다. 이러한 결과는 비록 외환위기 이후 환율안정화의 가장 큰 원동력이 외환유동성의 회복이었음에도 불구하고, 외환유동성이 회복될 때까지 단기적으로는 고금리정책이 환율안정화를 위하여 부분적으로 기여하였음을 시사한다고 할 수 있을 것이다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.228-243
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• 2007

This study porvides an empirical overview of the import patterns of Incheon port using an Engle-Granger cointegration technique and Johansen's multivariate cointegraion methodology test to check the stationarity of the model. The empirical results show that the import in Incheon port related to the economic variables. This paper also applies rolling regression to our model, indicating that import are endogeneous to the economic variable.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.263-280
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• 2011

The global financial crisis, triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, has put the world economy into the recession with financial market turmoil. I tested whether variables were cointegrated or whether there was an equilibrium relationship. Also, Generalized impulse-response function (GIRF) and accumulation impulse-response function (AIRF) may be used to understand and characterize the time series dynamics inherent in economical systems comprised of variables that may be highly interdependent. Moreover, the IRFs enables us to simulate the response in freight to a shock in the USD/JPY exchange rate, Dow Jones industrial average index, Dow Jones volatility, Chinese Import volatility. The result on the cointegration test show that the hypothesis of no cointergrating vector could be rejected at the 5 percent level. Also, the empirical analysis of cointegrating vector reveals that the increases of USD/JPY exchange rate have negative relations with freight. The result on the impulse-response analysis indicate that freight respond negatively to volatility, and then decay very quickly. Consequently, the results highlight the potential usefulness of the multivariate time series techniques accounting to behavior of Freight.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.298-324
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the Korean won exchange rates on the Korean service trade balance. Empirical investigation shows that the USD/KRW and JPY/KRW exchange rates have main effects on the Korean service trade balance. Service balance credit and debit(receipts and payments) are negatively related with the USD/KRW and positively related with the JPY/KRW exchange rate. The depreciation of the USD/KRW and JPY/KRW exchange rates leads to the improvement of the service trade balance. Transportation balance is affected by the USD/KRW, JPY/KRW, and CNY/KRW exchange rates, travel balance by the USD/KRW exchange rate, and other business sevice balance by the USD/KRW and JPY/KRW exchange rates.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1361-1369
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• 2014

This research is for analyzing the change rate of housing rent price index produced by KAB (Korea Appraisal Board) in the monthly periodical, Survey on Housing Monthly Rent. The index is a very important and useful indicator to understand and diagnose the house rental market. However, the index is criticized in that it tends to decline when the price level of Jeonse (i.e., a typical type of dwellings in Korea, generally leased on a deposit basis for 1 or 2 years) is highly going up, which is inconsistent with the actual economic sentiment of tenants. We verify the reason why such phenomenon occurs and suggest a simple but novel method to analyze properly the change rate of the index. The main findings are as follows. The key factor to trigger the problem is the use of the conversion rate for Jeonse-to-monthly rent for constructing the rent price indexes. We separate the effect of the conversion rate out of the change rate of the index and quantify the adjusted real change rate showing an increase of the rent price level which is masked by the conversion rate before.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.229-249
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• 2011

The exchange rate change has been increased since the time when the floating exchange rate system was introduced in Korea. As a result, the increase of the exchange rate changes raised the risk in international trades in Korea. Also after Bretton Woods System broke down, the increasing exchange rate fluctuation raised the risk in international trade. The purpose of this dissertation is to study whether this incomplete pass-through exists in Korean export industry and furthermore to measure the markup rate of the export price using real data since Global Financial Crisis. The estimation results of the export price determination model by Error Correction Model shows that the export price of Korea has been greatly influenced by the export prices and exchange rates against U.S. Dollar of rival countries, domestic producer price as well as the Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate and also business coincidence index of U.S. in demand. Particularly, the pass-through rate of Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate to export price is estimated to be incomplete, which contrasts with the propositions of traditional exchange rate determination approach, e. g. elasticity approach, monetary approach, etc.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.269-282
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• 2009

This study investigates the difference of behavioral patterns between the import container volume of all ports and that of Gwangyang port in Korea. All series span the period January 1999 to December 2008. I first test whether the series are stationary or not. I can reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. I hitherto make use of variance decompositions and impulse response functions, both of which have now been widely used to examine how much movement in one variable can be explained by innovations in different variables and how rapidly these fluctuations in one variable can be transmitted to another. The variance decompositions for the import container volume show that the proportions of the forecast error variance of import container volumes explained by themselves are 30 and 26 per cent after 12 months, respectively. As a result, innovations in exchange rate and business activity explain 70 and 74 per cent of the variance in the import container volume. All in all, innovation accounting indicates that import container volumes are not exogenous with respect to exchange rate and business activity. The impulse responses indicate that container volumes decrease sharply to the shocks in exchange rate and decay very slowly to its pre-shock level, while container volumes respond positively to the shocks in the business activity and disappear very slowly, showing that the shocks last very long. Furthermore Gwangyang port is more sensitive to the change of the exchange rate and the industrial production than all ports.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.31-62
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• 1989

By using deterministic dynamic models, we observe the behavior of the foreign exchange rate of a small open economy with rational expectation formation and different restrictions on the international economic integrations. First, an economy connected to the world by purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity is studied in the next section. In both sections, financial assets available in the economy are domestic money and bonds. Stocks are added as a financial instrument in the next section, and real capital accumulation is also taken into account. Furthermore, the economy concerned there is fairly autonomous, and not directly governed by either purchasing power parity or uncovered interest parity. The expectation formation used throughout the whole paper is complete perfect foresight, which is the certainty version of rational expectation and free from any forecast errors. It is found that upon monetary expansion the short run depreciation of the foreign exchange rate is a fairly robust result regardless of the degree of the international economic integration, while it is not true for fiscal expansion. The expectation on the long run state significantly affects the short run response of the exchange rate. All of our models postulate that the current account should be balanced eventually. As the result, the short run behavior of the exchange rate is affected by the expectation on the long run balance and may well be a blend of the traditional flow view and modem asset view. The initial overshooting of the exchange rate is easily observed even in the fairly autonomous economy Furthermore, the initial overshooting is not reduced over time, but augmented for some time before it is eventually eliminated. As long as we maintain rational expectaion, introducing time delay in the adjustment of the foreign goods price to the foreign exchange rate does not make much difference.