• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 해석

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A Study on the Relationship between Light Environment and Visitors' Behavior in a Museum - Focus on the Interpretation of Tracking Score and Tracking Frequency with Intensity of Illumination - (박물관 빛 환경과 관람행태의 상관관계에 관한 연구 - 조도에 의한 관람확률과 관람빈도의 해석을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Mi-Youn;Jung, Sung-Wook
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.82-89
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    • 2010
  • The studies published up to now, related to the correlation between spatial structure and visitors' behavior in a museum are rather relatively lacking when it comes to the in-depth consideration for the effect of the actual exhibition environment. So the main purpose of this study is to define the correlation between the light environment and the visitors' behavior. Towards this end, this study uses 'space syntax' to quantify the spatial structure with 'integration', 'connectivity' and 'control value'. Meanwhile, 'tracking score' and 'tracking frequency' were selected as the scope among the indices of behavior's analysis. The results of this study are as follows; First, integration and correlation of tracking score and tracking frequency are lowest when it comes to the extra large historical museums where the difference of intensity of illumination by each convex space. Meanwhile, the most considerable effect is exerted by control value. Compared to tracking score, tracking frequency is closely related to 'syntactic variables'. Second, visitors do not take the short cut the dark exhibition space even when very dark exhibition spaces continue after passing through relatively bright space. Analysis of visitors' behavior by control value in the exhibition space composed of this type of intensity of illumination environment is not valid. Third, visitors move to relatively brighter transitional space compared to the exhibition space with low intensity of illumination when passing through dark exhibition continually. Meanwhile, when visitors pass through the exhibition space there is some difference intensity of illumination they move to relatively dark exhibition center among the subsequent exhibition spaces. Accordingly, when the composition of exhibition space that continues onto the environment of low intensity of illumination is inevitable, differentiating intensity of illumination appropriately would be effective in inducing visit to the subsequent exhibition space.

Reliability Analysis and Evaluation of Partial Safety Factors of Breakwater Armor stones Considering Correlation between Wave Height and Wave Steepness (파고와 파형경사의 상관성을 고려한 피복석의 신뢰성 해석 및 부분안전계수 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Woo;Suh, Kyung-Duck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.300-309
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    • 2008
  • The partial safety factors of armor stones have been calculated on the assumption that all random variables are independent one another. However, wave height and wave steepness are not independent in the van der Meer's formula of armor stones but they are correlated. In the present study, we calculated the partial safety factors considering the correlation and compared them with those of other researchers who did not consider the correlation. The correlation between wave height and steepness is closely related to the variability of wave period. As the variability of wave period decreases, the correlation between wave height and steepness becomes strong, and hence the calculation results with and without consideration of the correlation show more difference. Therefore, the correlation should be taken into account in the calculation of partial safety factors in the area where the variability of wave period is small.

Dynamic Response based System Reliability Analysis of Structure with Passive Damper - Part 2: Assessment of System Failure Probability (수동형 댐퍼를 장착한 구조물의 동적응답기반 신뢰성 해석 - 제2편: 시스템 파괴확률 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Min;Ok, Seung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2016
  • This study proposes a multi-scale dynamic system reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this second paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the structure-level failure. Since the failure of one structural member does not necessarily cause the collapse of the structural system, we need to consider a set of failure scenarios of the structural system and compute the sum of the failure probabilities of the failure scenarios where the statistical dependence between the failure scenarios should be taken into account. Therefore, this computation requires additional system reliability analysis. As a result, the proposed approach takes a hierarchial framework where the failure probability of a structural member is computed using a lower-scale system reliability with the union set of time-sequential member failures and their statistical dependence, and the failure probability of the structural system is again computed using a higher-scale system reliability with the member failure probabilities obtained by the lower-scale system reliability and their statistical dependence. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide an accurate and stable reliability assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system on the system failure. Also, the parametric study of damper capacity on the seismic performance has been performed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach through the probabilistic assessment of the seismic performance improvement of the damper system.

The Comparative Study for Software Reliability Models Based on NHPP (NHPP에 기초한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 모형에 대한 비교연구)

  • Gan, Gwang-Hyeon;Kim, Hui-Cheol;Lee, Byeong-Su
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.8D no.4
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    • pp.393-400
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents a stochastic model for the software failure phenomenon based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). The failure process is analyzed to develop a suitable mean value function for the NHPP ; expressions are given for several performance measure. Actual software failure data are compared with generalized model by Goel dependent on the constant reflecting the quality of testing. The performance measures and parametric inferences of the new models, Rayleigh and Gumbel distributions, are discussed. The results of the new models are applied to real software failure data and compared with Goel-Okumoto and Yamada, Ohba and Osaki models. Tools of parameter inference was used method of the maximun likelihood estimate and the bisection algorithm for the computing nonlinear root. In this paper, using the sum of the squared errors, model selection was employed. The numerical example by NTDS data was illustrated.

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Effect of Joint Aperture Variation on Hydraulic Behavior of the 2-D DFN System (절리간극의 변화가 이차원 DFN 시스템의 수리적 특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Jisu;Um, Jeong-Gi
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.283-292
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    • 2016
  • A computer program code was developed to estimate hydraulic behavior of the 2-D connected pipe network system, and implemented to evaluate the effect of joint aperture on hydraulic parameters of fractured rock masses through numerical experiments. A total of 216 stochastic 2-D DFN(discrete fracture network) blocks of $20m{\times}20m$ were prepared using two joint sets with fixed input parameters of joint orientation, frequency and size distribution. Two different cases of joint aperture variation are considered in this study. The hydraulic parameters were estimated for generated 2-D DFN blocks. The hydraulic anisotropy and the chance for equivalent continuum behavior of the DFN system were found to depend on the variability of joint aperture.

Conformance-Based Dynamic Performance Optimization of an Actuator (순응도 기반의 구동기 동적 성능 최적화)

  • Son, Young-Kap
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.36 no.11
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    • pp.1327-1334
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    • 2012
  • This study shows the conformance-based design results of a fourth-order dynamic actuator showing a performance variation caused by variation in the components as well as aero-induced disturbances. The actuator comprises a BLDC motor, spur gear and worm gear assembly, and canard. The actuator performance was evaluated by using time-variant angle information of the canard. Based on the response surface models, critical system variables were screened using F-tests, and then, the performance was approximated as a function of the variables because it is difficult to determine the performance of a high-order dynamic system as a function of system variables through analytical approaches. In this study, the conformance of uncertain performance to the specification was defined as a probability measure. The design variables obtained by optimizing the measure can provide actuator performance conforming to the specifications considered, even though there is a variation in both the components and the aero-induced disturbances.

실직근로자의 직업탐색과 재취업-광주지역 근로자를 중심으로-

  • 홍성우;양채열
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 1999
  • 한국은 지난 1960년대 이후 실업률이 추세적으로 하락하여왔기 때문에 실업구조, 직업탐색에 대한 관심이 비교적 적었으나 최근의 고 실업률은 이에 대한 연구의 필요성을 제고시키고 있다. 기존의 연구들은 저 실업률 시기의 자료를 사용한 것이므로 1998년의 고 실업률 자료를 활용한 연구는 다른 연구결과를 가져올 것이다. 이 글은 고 실업률 시기로 진입한 지 1년이 되는 98년 11월말 광주광역시에서 실시된 상시고 실직자에 대한 설문조사자료를 이용하여 고 실업률 시기의 실직자의 직업탐색과 실업기간을 분석하였다. 본 연구결과는 기존의 연구결과와 많은 부분에서 일치하지만 한국에서 대량실업은 처음 겪는 상황이므로 이전의 연구결과와 다르거나 새로 확인된 사실들도 몇 가지 있다. 연구결과를 요약 정리하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 비자발적 이유에 의한 실직자가 약 70%를 차지하고 구인배율이 아주 낮아 최근의 실업은 수요부족에서 발생한 것이라고 할 수 있다. 따라서 임금을 낮추고 희망하지 않는 직종 산업 종사상 지위로 하향 구직을 하고 있었다. 둘째, 고실업률이 장기화되면서 나타난 현상으로는 구직경로가 다양해졌고, 유보 임금 및 수락임금이 전직임금보다 약 20% 하락함으로써 임금이 신축적임을 보여 주었다. 그러나 고실업 사태를 급작스럽게 맞이하면서 이전임금에 대한 집착이 강하여 하락폭은 충분히 신축적이었다고 보기는 어렵다. 셋째, 실업보험수급자는 유보임금 하락률이 높았고 실업 탈출률도 높았다. 이것은 직업탐색이론과 상반된 결과로 노동수요부족사태를 처음 겪으면서 노동시장에 대한 정보가 모든 실업자에게 동일하지 않고, 실업보험수급자가 보다 완전한 정보를 가지고 있으며, 실업보험지급에 따른 구직독려 때문인 것으로 생각된다. 넷째, 기존 연구들과 마찬가지로 유보임금은 전직 임금에 크게 의존하였으며 실업기간에 대한 해자드 분석에 의하면 유보임금의 대리변수인 전직임금이 낮을수록, 구직을 적극적으로 할수록 탈출률일 높았다. 인적속성으로는 인적자본축적이 많고 다양한 취업정보를 접할 수 있는 고학력자의 탈출률이 높았다. 다른 나라에 대한 기존 연구의 근속기간이 긴 남성 실업자는 실업기간이 길었지만 여기서는 반대의 결과가 나왔다. 그것은 기업의 도산 등에 따른 실직자의 경우 유용한 인적자본 보유자가 많고 축적된 자산으로 자영업으로 탈출할 확률이 높기 때문인 것으로 해석된다.

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Dynamic Response based Reliability Analysis of Structure with Passive Damper - Part 1: Assessment of Member Failure Probability (수동형 댐퍼를 장착한 구조물의 동적응답기반 신뢰성 해석 - 제1편: 부재별 파괴확률 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Min;Ok, Seung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2016
  • This study proposes a dynamic reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this dynamic reliability analysis, the failure event is defined as an event that the dynamic response of the structural system exceeds a displacement limit, whereas the conventional reliability analysis method has limitations that do not properly assess the actual time history response of the structure subjected to dynamic loads, such as earthquakes and high winds, by taking the static response into account in the failure event. In this first paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the member-level failure where the failure event of the structural member consists of the union set of time-sequential member failures during the earthquake excitations and the failure probability of the earthquake-excited structural member is computed using system reliability approach to consider the statistical dependence of member failures between the subsequent time points. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can present a reliable assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system in comparison with MCS method. The most important advantage of the proposed approach can provide us more accurate estimate of failure probability of the structural control system by using the actual time-history responses obtained by dynamic response analysis.

Groundwater Flow Characterization in the Vicinity of the Underground Caverns by Groundwater Level Changes (지하수위 변화에 따른 지하공동 주변의 지하수 유동특성 해석)

  • 강재기;양형식;김경수;김천수
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.465-475
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    • 2003
  • Groundwater inflow into the caverns constructed in fractured rock mass was simulated by numerical modeling, NAPSAC (DFN, discrete fracture network model) and NAMMU (CPM, continuous porous media model), a finite-element software package for groundwater flow in 3D fractured media developed by AEA Technology, UK. The input parameters for modeling were determined on surface fracture survey, core logging and single hole hydraulic test data. In order to predict the groundwater inflow more accurately, the anisotropic hydraulic conductivity was considered. The anisotropic hydraulic conductivities were calculated from the fracture network properties. With a minor adjustment during model calibration, the numerical modeling is able to reproduce reasonably groundwater inflows into cavern and the travel length and times to the ground surface along the flow paths in the normal, dry and rainy seasons.

Sensitivity Analysis of GIUH Model Applied to DEM Resolutions and Threshold Areas (GIUH적용을 위한 DEM 격자크기 및 Threshold Area의 민감도분석)

  • Cho, Hyo-Seob;Jung, Kwan-Sue;Kim, Jae-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.799-810
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    • 2003
  • Hydrologic models generally require land surface analysis to different topographic parameters defined as direct or indirect input variables to the model. Specially GIS supply the these parameters from digital data set of land surface The sensitivity analysis to DEM(Digital Elevation Model) resolution and the threshold area are of GIS extracted digital data set applied GIUH(Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph)model is investigated. Also it is compared the responses of GIUH model as input data of stream networks from digital data set(blue line) of NGIS and those extracted from DEM of various grid sizes. The results shows that the GIUH model is significantly affected by the DEM resolution and threshold area. According to the results, DEM grid size is suitable from 25m to 50m. Also threshold area is in the range of 30%∼50% for exceedance probability.