• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 통계

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CMV antigenemia following pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation : risk factors and outcomes (소아 조혈모세포 이식 후 거대세포 바이러스 항원혈증 발생 : 위험인자와 임상 경과)

  • Cho, Eun-Young;Park, Young-Shil;Lee, Dae-Hyung;Park, Ji Kyoung;Choi, Sangrhim;Kim, Sun Young;Jang, Pil-Sang;Lee, Dong-Gun;Chung, Nak-Gyun;Kim, Jong-Hyun;Jeong, Dae-Chul;Cho, Bin;Hur, Jae Gyun;Kang, Jin Han;Kim, Hack Ki
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2006
  • Purpose : Cytomegalovirus(CMV) infection still remains as a major cause of morbidity and mortality after stem cell transplantation. In this study, we analyzed the results of antigenemia-guided preemptive therapy among children with allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation to determine the incidence and risk factors associated with CMV antigenemia, and evaluated the efficacy of the CMV antigenemia based preemptive therapy. Methods : We enrolled 213 pediatric patients following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation(HSCT), at the Catholic HSCT center between October 1998 and December 2003. Pre-emptive ganciclovir was started when more than 5 CMV Ag-positive cells were detected in matched sibling HSCT, and when any Ag-positive cells were seen in unrelated allogenic HSCT. Results : CMV antigenemia was observed in 88(41.3 percent) of 213 patients on median day 28(day 11-99). In univariated analysis, use of unrelated donors(other than siblings), age of recipient(more than 5 years at transplant) at transplantation, the presence of recipient CMV-IgG before transplantation, TBI-based conditioning regimen and the presence of acute GvHD(grade ${\geq}II$) were the risk factors for positive CMV antigenemia. In multivariate analysis, unrelated bone marrow transplantation, positive recipient CMV serology and acute GvHD(grade ${\geq}II$) were the independent risk factors for positive CMV antigenemia. Conclusion : Risk factors of CMV infection in children were CMV serostatus of the recipient, the source of stem cells, and acute graft-versus-host disease. The pre-emptive therapy based on CMV antigenemia was effective in the prevention of CMV disease.

The Effects of Emotional Perception on Major Satisfaction among Students at the Department of Dental Hygiene (치위생과 학생의 정서적 인식이 전공만족도에 미치는 영향)

  • Yu, Ji-Su;Choi, Su-Young
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.307-314
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    • 2010
  • This study aimed to measure such features of emotional responses perceived by students as learning climate, department living stress, and perceived helplessness to analyze their effects on major satisfaction among students at the department of dental hygiene; to do this, a survey was conducted with 431 students, regardless of college year, who were at the department of dental hygiene in four colleges in Gyeonggi Province, Daejeon, and Chungcheong Province. An existing emotion scale which went through the generalization process was used to draw a multiple model in the combination form in order to collect emotional factors affecting college students' satisfaction with their major, which had existed as a hypothetical proposition, and make overall interpretation of relevance through the explainable, predictable modeling process by measuring emotional factors and phenomenal description of the level of general perception. The results showed that major satisfaction was very significantly affected by emotional features among students at the department of dental hygiene, which needs to be treated as an important factor to enhance expertise related to major learning and improve students' living.

A Study on Measuring the Environmental Value of Gyeongnam Arboretum Using the CVM (가상가치측정법(CVM)을 이용한 경남수목원의 환경가치추정 연구)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Ha, Sung-Gyone;Lee, Kee-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.46-55
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    • 2011
  • The importance of forests and plants are appreciated by all of us, but it is often overlooked because we are surrounded by it. The arboretum is one of facilities which provide users with education on the environment, knowledge about plants, and recreation, playing a role as a nature school by exhibiting and collecting plants of various ecosystems. Anyone can enjoy fresh air, a pleasant environment, and knowledge about a wide variety of plants on the condition that they aactually visit it and pay the entrance fee. However, it has not been measured whether the expense which users pay to enjoy an arboretum is a true value of arboretums. The environment that arboretums offer is extra-market goods, or public goods. A variety of ideas and methods to measure the value of public goods have been researched among economists, statisticians, and mathematicians. The Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) is most widely used a s an assessment method on environment goods and adopted as an estimation method for compensation for restoration of the environment by the American Supreme Court. The purpose of this study is to suggest a current monetary value correspondingent to the value of arboretums by applying the CVM. The survey suggested that when an arboretum provides a high educational value and when the respondents have a higher income, it is more likely that they would be willing to pay for entrance into the arboretum. The quantified value in monetary terms for the environmental value of Gyeongnam Arboretum is WTP mean \15,648; WTP median \13,648; and WTP truncated \15,449 per visitor. In annual terms, the amounts are calculated at WTP mean \8,408,265,024; WTP median \7,333,589,024; and WTP truncated \8,301,334,762. These quantified amounts can be thought to represent the value of conservation of arboretums and awaken users to the precious value of nature. Also, they are helpful to let the general public have proper knowledge about and recognize the value of arboretums and forests.

Comparison of shaping ability between single length technique and crown-down technique using Mtwo rotary file (Mtwo 전동 파일을 사용한 single length technique과 crown-down technique의 근관성형 효율 비교)

  • Lim, Yoo-Kyoung;Park, Jeong-Kil;Hur, Bock;Kim, Hyeon-Cheol
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.385-396
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    • 2007
  • The aims of this study were to compare the shaping effect and safety between single length technique recommended by manufacturer and crown-down technique using Mtwo rotary file and to present a modified method in use of Mtwo file. Sixty simulated root canal resin blocks were used. The canals were divided into three groups according to instrument and the manner of using methods. Each group had 20 specimens. Group MT was instrumented with single length technique of Mtwo, group MC was instrumented with crown-down technique of Mtwo and group PT was instrumented with crown-down technique of ProTaper. All of the rotary files used in this study were operated by an electric motor. The scanned canal images of before and after preparation were superimposed. These superimposed images were evaluated at apical 1 to 8 mm levels Angle changes were calculated. The preparation time, weight loss, instrument failure and binding, canal aberrations, and centering ratio were measured. Statistical analysis of the three experimental groups was performed with ANOVA and Duncan's multiple range tests for post-hoc comparison and Fisher's exact test was done for the frequency comparison. In total preparation time, group MT and group MC were less than group PT. In the aberrations, group MT had more elbows than those of group MC and group PT. The binding of group MC was least and group MT was less than group PT (P < 0.05). Under the condition of this study, crown-down technique using Mtwo rotary file is better and safer method than single length technique recommended by the manufacturer.

Midterm Results of Mitral Valve Repair by the New Chordae Formation Technique (승모판막 폐쇄부전증에서 신건삭 형성술을 이용한 판막 성형술의 임상분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Won;Lim, Han-Jung;Jung, Sung-Ho;Kim, Kun-Il;Choo, Suk-Jung;Song, Hyun;Song, Meung-Gun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.329-337
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    • 2001
  • 배경: 승포판 전엽이나 교련 또는 여러 판엽에 걸쳐 광범위한 병변으로 인한 승모판 역류의 경우 수술수기에 대한 뚜렷한 정립이 되어 있지 않은 실정이다. 최근 이러한 병변의 승모판 역류의 경우 PTEE(Polytetrafluro-ethylene)을 이용한 신건삭 형성술의 시행이 점차 늘고 있다. 이에 저자들은 PTEE를 이용한 신건삭 형성술이 승모판 성형술에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 알아보고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법: 1994년 1월부터 1999년 12월까지 승모판막 성형술을 시행 받은 322명의 환자 중에서 신건삭 형성술을 이용하여 승모판 성형술을 시행한 144례(I군)과 신건삭 형성술 이외의 방법으로 승모판 성형술을 시행한 178례(II군)를 대상으로 하였다. 두 군에서 수술 직후ㅘ 수술 후 6개월, 1년 및 1년 단위로 주기적인 심초음파를 시행하였고 이를 통계적 검정하였다. 결과: 같은 기간 승모판 성형술은 승모판막 폐쇄 부전증으로 내원한 환자의 95%(306)에서 추적 관찰이 가능하였다. 두 구난에 수술 전 혈류 역학적인 차이를 보이지 않았고, 수술 전 평균 승모판막 폐쇄 부전의 정도는 I군이 3.8$\pm$0.4, II군이 3.6$\pm$0.3였으나 수술 후 추적 관찰에서 각각 1.3$\pm$0.9와 1.1$\pm$0.7 정도의 양호한 판막 성형술의 결과를 보였고 승모판막 면적의변화나 승모판막에서의 평균 압력차이 등 혈류 역학적인 결과에도 차이를 보이고 있지 않았다. 술 후 3명(0.9%)의 조기 사망과 4명 (1.2%)의 후기 사망이 있었으나 두 군간의 차이는 보이지 않았다. 만기 생존율( 93.7$\pm$3.3 vs 88.0$\pm$1.95) 및 판막살패가 발생하기 않을 확률( 93.7$\pm$3.6 vs 93.3$\pm$3.4%) 과 재수술이 필요치 않을 활률(99.3$\pm$0.7 vs 96.0$\pm$1.9%), 색전증, 감염성 심내막염, 판막과 관련된 합병증 발생률 등에서 두 군간에 의미 있는 차이는 없었다. 전엽과 후엽에서 신건삭 형성술을 시행한 환자에서는 통계학적인 차이가 없었다(p=0.29) 결론: 신건삭 형성술을 이용한 승모판 성형술은 승모판 성형술의 증가(r=0.98, p<0.01)를 가져 왔을 뿐만 아니라 내구성과 안정성에 있어 기존의 안전화된 수술 수기와 견줄만하다. 특히 이러한 신건삭 형성술은 승모판 전엽에 병변이 있는 경우와 교련부 및 여러 엽에 광범위한 병변으로 인하여 재건술이 어려운 경우에도 승모판 재건을 가능하게 하는 우수한 수술 수리가 사료된다.

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Predictors of Meningitis in Febrile Infants Aged 3 Months or Younger (열이 있는 3개월 이하의 영아에서 수막염의 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Song, Hyang Soon;Kim, Eun Ok;Jang, Young Taek
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.40-46
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    • 2009
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to identify useful predictors for diagnosing bacterial meningitis and performing CSF studies in febrile infants three months or younger. Methods : Six hundred and fifty two febrile infants with a rectal temperature ${\geq}38.0^{\circ}C$ presented from January 2003 to April 2008 and were retrospectively studied. The total white blood cell count (WBC), band count, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), quantitative C-reactive protein (CRP) and blood cultures were performed on admission. The clinical variables associated with bacterial meningitis were analyzed. Results : In patients with bacterial meningitis, the clinical variables including CRP (P=0.036), band count (P=0.037), ANC (P=0.036) and age (P=0.001) were significantly different. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.969 for CRP, 0.946 for the band count, 0.765 for the ANC and 0.235 for age. A CRP cutoff point of 8 mg/dL was determined to maximize both the sensitivity and specificity (sensitivity 83%, specificity 95%, likelihood ratio 16.6). A CRP concentration of <7 mg/dL "ruled-out" bacterial meningitis, with a likelihood ratio of 0.17, a posttest probability of <0.1% and negative predictive value 91%. A CRP concentration greater than 9 mg/dL had a much higher likelihood ratio (20.1) than the band count (16.6) and ANC (2.2). Conclusion : The CRP concentration was a useful laboratory test for the differential diagnosis of bacterial meningitis among febrile infants three months of age or younger. A CRP concentration of <7 mg/dL effectively ruled out bacterial meningitis; a value ${\geq}9mg/dL$ increased the clinical suspicion of bacterial meningitis and the need for CSF evaluation.

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Severity of Comorbidities among Suicidal Attempters Classified by the Forms of Psychiatric Follow-up (자살시도자의 정신건강의학과 치료 연계 형태에 따른 동반질병 심각도의 차이)

  • Lee, Hyeok;Oh, Seung-Taek;Kim, Min-Kyeong;Lee, Seon-Koo;Seok, Jeong-Ho;Choi, Won-Jung;Lee, Byung Ook
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.74-82
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    • 2016
  • Objectives : Suicide attempters have impaired decision making and are at high risk of reattempt. Therefore it is important to refer them to psychiatric treatment. Especially, People with medical comorbidity are at higher risk of suicidal attempt and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics of suicidal attempters and to analyze the influence of the medical comorbidity on decision to receive psychiatric treatment after visit to an emergency department. Methods : One hundred and thirty two patients, who visited the emergency room of a general hospital in Gyeonggi-do between January, 2012 and December, 2012 were enrolled as the subjects of this study. After reviewing each subject's medical records retrospectively, demographic and clinical factors were analyzed. Results : Regardless of the engagement type, either via admission or outpatient clinic, the determinant factors of psychiatric treatment engagement were psychiatric diagnosis, employment status, previous psychiatric treatment history, and previous attempt history. Comparison of severity of medical comorbidity(Charlson Comorbidity Index) showed that suicide attempters who received psychiatric treatment via admission or refused the treatment tended to have higher level of medical comorbidity than who received psychiatric treatment via outpatient department. Conclusions : Our findings showed that medical comorbidity of suicide attempters affected the decision to accept psychiatric treatment. All psychiatrists should evaluate the presence and the severity of medical comorbidity of the suicide attempters and consider implementing more intervention for the medically ill attempters who are willing to discharge against advice.

NEAR-INFRARED VARIABILITY OF OPTICALLY BRIGHT TYPE 1 AGN (가시광에서 밝은 1형 활동은하핵의 근적외선 변광)

  • JEON, WOOYEOL;SHIM, HYUNJIN;KIM, MINJIN
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2021
  • Variability is one of the major characteristics of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), and it is used for understanding the energy generation mechanism in the center of AGN and/or related physical phenomena. It it known that there exists a time lag between AGN light curves simultaneously observed at different wavelengths, which can be used as a tool to estimate the size of the area that produce the radiation. In this paper, We present long term near-infrared variability of optically bright type 1 AGN using the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer data. From the Milliquas catalogue v6.4, 73 type 1 QSOs/AGN and 140 quasar candidates are selected that are brighter than 18 mag in optical and located within 5 degree around the ecliptic poles. Light curves in the W1 band (3.4 ㎛) and W2 band (4.6 ㎛) during the period of 2010-2019 were constructed for these objects by extracting multi-epoch photometry data from WISE and NEOWISE all sky survey database. Variability was analyzed based on the excess variance and the probability Pvar. Applying both criteria, the numbers of variable objects are 19 (i.e., 26%) for confirmed AGN and 12 (i.e., 9%) for AGN candidates. The characteristic time scale of the variability (τ) and the variability amplitude (σ) were derived by fitting the DRW model to W1 and W2 light curves. No significant correlation is found between the W1/W2 magnitude and the derived variability parameters. Based on the subsample that are identified in the X-ray source catalog, there exists little correlation between the X-ray luminosity and the variability parameters. We also found four AGN with changing W1-W2 color.

The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.237-262
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    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Comparison between Uncertainties of Cultivar Parameter Estimates Obtained Using Error Calculation Methods for Forage Rice Cultivars (오차 계산 방식에 따른 사료용 벼 품종의 품종모수 추정치 불확도 비교)

  • Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2023
  • Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (Eem), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (Epm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (Epm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.