• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.117-123
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• 2016

This paper presents inference methods for inner operations of a multi-server queue when historical data are limited or system observation is restricted. In a queueing system analysis, autocorrelated arrival and service processes increase the complexity of modeling. Accordingly, numerous analysis methods have been developed. In this paper, we introduce an inference method for specific situations when external observations exhibit autocorrelated structure and and observations of internal operations are difficult. We release an assumption of the previous method and provide lemma and theorem to guarantee the correctness of our proposed inference method. Using only external observations, our proposed method deduces the internal operation of a multi-server queue via non-parametric approach even when the service times are autocorrelated. The main internal inference measures are waiting times and service times of respective customers. We provide some numerical results to verify that our method performs as intended.

• Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.1-20
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• 2010

Conditional probability may look simple but it raises various misconceptions. Preceding studies are mostly about such misconceptions. However, instead of focusing on those misconceptions, this paper focused on what the mathematical essence of conditional probability which can be applied to various situations and how good teachers' understanding on that is. In view of this purpose, this paper classified conditional probability which have different ways of defining into two-relative conditional probability which can be get by relative ratio and if-conditional probability which can be get by the inference of the situation change of conditional event. Yet, this is just a superficial classification of resolving ways of conditional probability. The purpose of this paper is in finding the mathematical essence implied in those, and by doing that, tried to find out how well teachers understand about conditional probability which is one integrated concept.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.144-152
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• 2009

To provide intelligent service in mobile environment, it needs to estimate user's intention or requirement, through analyzing context information of end-users such as preference or behavior patterns. In this paper, we infer context information from uncertain log stored in mobile device. And we propose the inference method of end-user's behavior to match context information with service, and the proposed method is based on context-tree. We adopt bayesian probabilistic method to infer uncertain context information effectively, and the context-tree is constructed to utilize non-numerical context which is hard to handled with mathematical method. And we verify utility of proposed method by appling the method to intelligent phone book service.

• The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.51-58
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• 2018

In order to analyze the prediction of the computer entertainment behavior, this study investigated the variables' interdependencies and their causal relations to the computer entertainment behavior using Bayesian inference with the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey data. For the study, Markov blanket was extracted through General Bayesian Network and the degree of influences was investigated by changing the variables' probabilities. Results showed that the computer entertainment behavior was significantly changed depending on adjusting the values of the related variables; school learning act, smoking, taunting, fandom, and school rule. The results suggested that the Bayesian inference could be used in educational filed for predicting and adjusting the adolescents' computer entertainment behavior.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2006.06b
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• pp.112-114
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• 2006

최근 영상 인식 정보를 서비스 로봇 도메인에서 사용하기 위한 연구와 함께 전통적인 영상 인식 방법의 성능을 높이기 위한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 기존의 방법들은 기하학적 모델을 기반으로 예측 가능한 환경에서 상황을 인식하였기에 이를 실내 환경과 같은 동적인 환경에 적용하는 것은 정확도나 인식의 효율 면에서 한계를 갖는다. 이에 지식 기반 접근 방법을 통해 정확도를 항상 시키거나 계산 비용을 감소시킴으로써 영상 인식성능을 높이기 위한 다양한 연구가 있어 왔다. 본 논문에서는 서비스 로봇이 물체를 탐색할 때, 대상 물체가 다른 물체에 의해 가려짐으로써 발생하는 불확실한 상황을 해결하기 위한 방법을 제안한다. 제안하는 방법은 발견된 물체를 컨텍스트 정보로 사용하여 대상 물체의 존재 여부를 추론하며, 이를 위해 신뢰도를 모델링할 수 있는 확률적 모델인 베이지안 네트워크와 도메인 지식을 모델링 할 수 있는 온톨로지를 함께 사용한다. 효과적인 모델링을 위해 본 논문에서는 기본적인 물체 관계를 모듈화 하여 설계하기 위한 베이지안 네트워크 구조와 확률 값 선정 방법. 이들을 온톨로지를 기반으로 주어진 상창에 따라 결합하는 방법을 제안한다. 이는 물체 관계를 모델링할 때 발생하는 중복 설계를 감소시켜주고 유지 및 보수를 용이하게 한다. 설계된 추론 모듈은 실험 결과 5가지 장소에서 높은 정확도를 보여주었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.298-298
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• 2016

최근 기후변화의 영향으로 시간에 따라 자료 및 통계적 특성이 변하는 비정상성이 다양한 수문자료에서 관측됨에 따라 비정상성 빈도해석에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 비정상성 빈도해석에 사용되는 비정상성 확률 모형은 기존의 매개변수를 시간에 따라 변하는 공변량이 포함된 함수의 형태로 나타내기 때문에, 정상성 확률 모형에 비해 매개변수의 개수가 많으며 복잡한 형태를 가지게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 비정상성 고려 시 모형이 복잡해짐에 따라 매개변수 및 확률 수문량의 불확실성이 어떻게 변하는지 알아보고자 하였다. 베이지안 방법은 매개변수 추정 및 확률 수문량의 산정 뿐 아니라 이에 대한 불확실성을 정량화할 수 있는 방법 중 하나이다. 따라서 베이지안 방법에서 매개변수 추정에 주로 쓰이는 Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) 방법 중 하나인 Metropolis-Hastings 알고리즘을 이용하여 정상성 및 비정상성 GEV모형에 대한 매개변수 및 확률수문량의 사후분포를 산정하였다. 산정된 사후분포의 사후구간을 통해 각 모형의 불확실성을 정량화하였으며, 계산된 불확실성의 비교를 통해 모형의 복잡성이 불확실성에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.16 no.7
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• pp.1234-1243
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• 1992

A systematic procedure to design fuzzy PID controllers is developed in this paper. The concept of local fuzzy control cell is proposed by introducing both an adequate global control rule and membership functions to simplify a fuzzy logic controller. Fuzzy decision is made by using algebraic product and parallel firing arithematic mean, and a defuzzification strategy is adopted for improving the computational efficiency based on nonfuzzy micro-processor. A direct method, transforming the typical output of quasi-linear fuzzy operator to the digital compensator of PID form, is also proposed. Finally, the proposed algorithm is applied to an DC-servo motor. It is found that this algorithm is systematic and robust through computer simulations and implementation of controller using Intel 8097 micro-processor.

• Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.614-618
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• 2008

As the multimedia data increase a lot with the rapid development of the Internet, an efficient retrieval technique focusing on individual users is required based on the analyses of such data. However, user modeling services provided by recent web sites have the limitation of text-based page configurations and recommendation retrieval. In this paper, we construct the user preference model with a Bayesian network to apply the user modeling to video retrieval, and suggest a method which utilizes probability reasoning. To do this, context information is defined in a real office environment and the video scripts acquired from established cameras and annotated the context information manually are used. Personal information of the user, obtained from user input, is adopted for the evidence value of the constructed Bayesian Network, and user preference is inferred. The probability value, which is produced from the result of Bayesian Network reasoning, is used for retrieval, making the system return the retrieval result suitable for each user's preference. The usability test indicates that the satisfaction level of the selected results based on the proposed model is higher than general retrieval method.

• Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2014

The variable control in the inductive inference for the confirmation and verification when the experimental data are collected is studied by applying the principle of probability inference. The control in engineering experiments is to protect any effect by of intervening variable except primary independent variable on the dependent variable. By the special condition the possibility for developing a phenomenon will be maximized; otherwise, by the extraneous condition the possibility for developing a phenomenon will be minimized. By doing so, the control may provide insurance for the causal relationship between the certain prior event (independent variable) and the post-event (the dependent variable). Some experiments by using both elliptical trainer and tread mill under the variable control are performed in order to find the relations between the energy expenditure, the respiratory exchange ratio (RER), and the heart rate (HR) against the exercise speed.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.512-517
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• 2008

It is show that increasing of aged and handicapped people requires development of Ubiquitous computing technique to offer the specialized service for handicapped-people. For this, we need a development of Context Awareness and Service Reasoning Technique that the technique is supplied interaction between user and U-environment instead of the old unilateral relation. The old research of context awareness needed probabilistic presentation model like a Bayesian Network based on expert Systems for recognize given circumstance by a domain of uncertain real world. In this article, we define a domain of disorder activity assistant service application and context model based on ontology in diversified environment and minimized intervention of user and developer. By use this context model, we apply the structure learning of Bayesian Network and decide the service and activity to development of application service for handicapped people. Finally, we define the proper Conditional Probability Table of the structured Bayesian Network and if random situation is given to user, then present state variable of Activity and Service by given Causal relation of Bayesian Network based on Conditional Probability Table and it can be result of context awareness.