• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 적합도 모델

Search Result 211, Processing Time 0.035 seconds

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Pathogenic Vibrio through Sea Squirt Consumption in Korea (우렁쉥이에 대한 병원성 비브리오균 정량적 미생물 위해평가)

  • Ha, Jimyeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Oh, Hyemin;Shin, Il-Shik;Kim, Young-Mog;Park, Kwon-Sam;Yoon, Yohan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.35 no.1
    • /
    • pp.51-59
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study evalutated the risk of foodborne illness from Vibrio spp. (Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio cholerae) through sea squirt consumption. The prevalence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in sea squirt was evaluated, and the predictive models to describe the kinetic behavior of the Vibrio in sea squirt were developed. Distribution temperatures and times were collected, and they were fitted to probabilistic distributions to determine the appropriate distributions. The raw data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2016 were used to estimate the consumption rates and amount of sea squirt. In the hazard characterization, the Beta-Poisson model for V. vulnificus and V. cholerae infection was used. With the collected data, a simulation model was prepared and it was run with @RISK to estimate probabilities of foodborne illness by pathogenic Vibrio spp. through sea squirt consumption. Among 101 sea squirt samples, there were no V. vulnificus positive samples, but V. cholerae was detected in one sample. The developed predictive models described the fates of Vibrio spp. in sea squirt during distribution and storage, appropriately shown as 0.815-0.907 of R2 and 0.28 of RMSE. The consumption rate of sea squirt was 0.26%, and the daily consumption amount was 68.84 g per person. The Beta-Poisson model [P=1-(1+Dose/β)] was selected as a dose-response model. With these data, a simulation model was developed, and the risks of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae foodborne illness from sea squirt consumption were 2.66×10-15, and 1.02×10-12, respectively. These results suggest that the risk of pathogenic Vibrio spp. in sea squirt could be considered low in Korea.

Assessment of the Internal Pressure Fragility of the CANDU Type Containment Buildings using Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis (비선형 유한요소해석을 이용한 CANDU형 격납건물의 내압취약도 평가)

  • Hahm, Dae-Gi;Choi, In-Kil;Lee, Hong-Pyo
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.445-452
    • /
    • 2010
  • In this paper an assessment of the internal pressure fragility of the CANDU type containment buildings is performed. The uncertainties of the performance of the containment buildings, material properties and tendon characteristics are referred from the in-service reports of Wolsung Unit 1. The containment buildings are modeled as a three-dimensional finite elements with considering the major opening and penetrations. A new method to evaluate the probabilistic fragility of the massive structural system is developed. The fragility curves of the target containment building are presented with repect to the failure modes and reliability levels. The center of wall is reveled as the most weak structural component of the containment building in the sense of the rupture and catastrophic rupture failure modes.

A Word Spacing System based on Syllable Patterns for Memory-constrained Devices (메모리 제약적 기기를 위한 음절 패턴 기반 띄어쓰기 시스템)

  • Kim, Shin-Il;Yang, Seon;Ko, Young-Joong
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
    • /
    • v.37 no.8
    • /
    • pp.653-658
    • /
    • 2010
  • In this paper, we propose a word spacing system which can be performed with just a small memory. We focus on significant memory reduction while maintaining the performance of the system as much as the latest studies. Our proposed method is based on the theory of Hidden Markov Model. We use only probability information not adding any rule information. Two types of features are employed: 1) the first features are the spacing patterns dependent on each individual syllable and 2) the second features are the values of transition probability between the two syllable-patterns. In our experiment using only the first type of features, we achieved a high accuracy of more than 91% while reducing the memory by 53% compared with other systems developed for mobile application. When we used both types of features, we achieved an outstanding accuracy of more than 94% while reducing the memory by 76% compared with other system which employs bigram syllables as its features.

Light-weight Signal Processing Method for Detection of Moving Object based on Magnetometer Applications (이동 물체 탐지를 위한 자기센서 응용 신호처리 기법)

  • Kim, Ki-Taae;Kwak, Chul-Hyun;Hong, Sang-Gi;Park, Sang-Jun;Kim, Keon-Wook
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
    • /
    • v.46 no.6
    • /
    • pp.153-162
    • /
    • 2009
  • This paper suggests the novel light-weight signal processing algorithm for wireless sensor network applications which needs low computing complexity and power consumption. Exponential average method (EA) is utilized by real time, to process the magnetometer signal which is analyzed to understand the own physical characteristic in time domain. EA provides the robustness about noise, magnetic drift by temperature and interference, furthermore, causes low memory consumption and computing complexity for embedded processor. Hence, optimal parameter of proposal algorithm is extracted by statistical analysis. Using general and precision magnetometer, detection probability over 90% is obtained which restricted by 5% false alarm rate in simulation and using own developed magnetometer H/W, detection probability over 60~70% is obtained under 1~5% false alarm rate in simulation and experiment.

A Development of Summer Seasonal Rainfall and Extreme Rainfall Outlook Using Bayesian Beta Model and Climate Information (기상인자 및 Bayesian Beta 모형을 이용한 여름철 계절강수량 및 지속시간별 극치 강수량 전망 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Lee, Moon-Seob;Chae, Byung-Soo;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.38 no.5
    • /
    • pp.655-669
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this study, we developed a hybrid forecasting model based on a four-parameter distribution which allows a simultaneous season-ahead forecasting for both seasonal rainfall and sub-daily rainfall in Han-River and Geum-River basins. The proposed model is mainly utilized a set of time-varying predictors and the associated model parameters were estimated within a Bayesian nonstationary rainfall frequency framework. The hybrid forecasting model was validated through an cross-validatory experiment using the recent rainfall events during 2014~2017 in both basins. The seasonal precipitation results showed a good agreement with the observations, which is about 86.3% and 98.9% in Han-River basin and Geum-River basin, respectively. Similarly, for the extreme rainfalls at sub-daily scale, the results showed a good correspondence between the observed and simulated rainfalls with a range of 65.9~99.7%. Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed model could be used to better consider climate variability at multiple time scales.

An improvement of Medium Access Control Protocol in Ubiquitous Sensor Networks (유비쿼터스 센서 네트워크의 매체 접근 제어 기법에 대한 개선 방안)

  • Jang, Ho;Lee, Myung-Sub;Jeon, Woo-Sang
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
    • /
    • v.16C no.3
    • /
    • pp.373-382
    • /
    • 2009
  • we present more efficient method of a medium access for real-time ubiquitous sensor networks. Proposed MAC protocol is like the randomized CSMA/CA protocol, but unlike previous legacy protocols, it does not use a time-varying contention window from which a node randomly picks a transmission slot. To reduce the latency for the delivery of event reports from sensor nodes, we carefully decide to select a fixed-size contention window with non-uniform probability distribution of transmitting in each slot. We show that the proposed method can offer up to several times latency reduction compared to legacy of IEEE 802.11 as the size of the sensor network scales up to 256 nodes using a widely-used network simulation package, NS-2. We finally show that proposed MAC scheme comes close to meet bounds on the best latency being achieved by a decentralized CSMA-based MAC protocol for real-time ubiquitous sensor networks which is sensitive to latency.

Assessment of Drought Vulnerability Using Bayesian Network Model (베이지안 네트워크 모델을 활용한 가뭄 취약성 평가)

  • Kim, Ji Eun;Shin, Ji Yae;Chung, Gunhui;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2018.05a
    • /
    • pp.126-126
    • /
    • 2018
  • 최근 우리나라는 기후변화로 인한 이상기후 현상 중 가뭄에 대한 발생빈도가 증가하고 있다. 가뭄은 다른 자연재해에 비해 지속기간이 길고 규모가 광범위하여, 사회 경제적인 피해가 크게 발생한다. 이러한 가뭄에 대비하기 위해서는 지역적으로 적합한 가뭄 대책을 수립해야 하며, 이를 위해서는 가뭄 위험도 평가가 선행되어야 한다. 지역적 가뭄 위험도를 평가하기 위해서는 기상학적 요인뿐만 아니라 사회 경제적인 요인에 의한 영향을 고려하는 가뭄 취약성 평가가 수반되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 지역별 가뭄 취약성 평가를 수행하기 위해, 지역별 용수 수요 및 공급관련 인자와 선행연구에서 정의된 가뭄 위험인자들 중 8개(생활 농업 공업 용수공급량, 인구밀도, 1인당 가용수자원량, 물 자급률, 취수율, 물 이용 공평성)를 선택하였다. 베이지안 네트워크(Bayesian Network) 기법을 통해 선정된 사회 경제적 요인들과 가뭄과의 상관관계를 분석하여 각 지역의 특성을 고려한 가뭄 위험요인별 확률을 산정하였다. 최종적으로 산정된 주요 가뭄 위험요인별 확률을 우선순위에 따른 가중치를 적용하여 지역별 가뭄 취약성지수(Drought Vulnerability Index, DVI)를 산정하였고, 이를 이용하여 우리나라의 행정구역별로 취약성 평가를 수행하고 지도로 표시하였다. 지역별 가뭄 취약성 평가를 수행한 결과 익산, 상주, 완주 순으로 높게 나타났으며, 계룡, 과천, 종로순으로 가장 낮게 산정되었다. 또한 광역자치단체의 평균 가뭄 취약성지수를 산정한 결과 전라북도 지역이 가장 높게 나타났으며, 대구 및 대전광역시가 가장 낮게 나타났다.

  • PDF

Effectiveness Analysis for the Precision Guided and Controled Underwater Vehicle system with Integrated Navigation System (복합항법센서를 갖는 수중운동체의 정밀 유도제어 정확도 분석)

  • Han, Yongsu;Hyun, Chul;Jeong, Dongmin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
    • /
    • v.19 no.11
    • /
    • pp.2751-2757
    • /
    • 2015
  • To obtain the system requirement specification in the beginning of the precision guidance and control system development, the effectiveness and reliability analysis for the system are necessary. The main purpose of this research is to obtain the system requirement specification by carrying out the effectiveness analysis using the modeling and simulation(M&S) scheme. M&S model is constructed using 6-DOF dynamic model, environment model, guidanc -navigation & control model. Assume that the navigation sensor is consist of inertial navigation sensor(INS) and doppler velocity log(DVL), and the speed and direction of current is environment parameter. The effectiveness analysis is carried out using circular error probability(CEP) and variance analyze scheme. Also, the effectiveness analysis is utilized for cost-performance analysis considering the cost of commercial INS and DVL sensor. This paper shows the high-level INS and the low-level DVL configure a high price-performance integrated navigation system.

Depth-Based Recognition System for Continuous Human Action Using Motion History Image and Histogram of Oriented Gradient with Spotter Model (모션 히스토리 영상 및 기울기 방향성 히스토그램과 적출 모델을 사용한 깊이 정보 기반의 연속적인 사람 행동 인식 시스템)

  • Eum, Hyukmin;Lee, Heejin;Yoon, Changyong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.471-476
    • /
    • 2016
  • In this paper, recognition system for continuous human action is explained by using motion history image and histogram of oriented gradient with spotter model based on depth information, and the spotter model which performs action spotting is proposed to improve recognition performance in the recognition system. The steps of this system are composed of pre-processing, human action and spotter modeling and continuous human action recognition. In pre-processing process, Depth-MHI-HOG is used to extract space-time template-based features after image segmentation, and human action and spotter modeling generates sequence by using the extracted feature. Human action models which are appropriate for each of defined action and a proposed spotter model are created by using these generated sequences and the hidden markov model. Continuous human action recognition performs action spotting to segment meaningful action and meaningless action by the spotter model in continuous action sequence, and continuously recognizes human action comparing probability values of model for meaningful action sequence. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model efficiently improves recognition performance in continuous action recognition system.

Prediction of Estimated Sales Amount through New Open of Department Store (대형백화점의 신규출점에 따른 예상매출액 추정)

  • Park, Chul-ju;Ko, Youn-bae;Youn, Myoung-kil;Kim, Won-kyum
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.4 no.2
    • /
    • pp.5-20
    • /
    • 2006
  • Retail is called location business because it is one of the most important factors to estimate management of stores for retailers who are going to sell products directly to customers. Retailers' management achievements are shown in sale in general. Therefore, retailers tend to focus on ways to increase the numbers of customers in order to raise sales. First of all, in this research, I am going to examine the most fundamental models such as Reilly's retail gravitation, converse model, huff probability model and multiful losit model in selecting stores. Secondly, I am going to provide the process and analyzing ways to predict estimated sales amount with the previous theory model. Also I am going to predict estimated sales amount of the department store L which is located in D metorpolitan city. Lastly, I am going to argue about the problem of this research and the next research subject. Our main goal is to provide ways to complement and inspect sales estimation models, which can be used in fields after taking characters of high class structure of Korea into consideration on the base of previous researches. According to the result of the research, my conclusion is that if the process of analysis and changing factors are complemented, revise model, which can reflect reality of Korea, will be provided. Therefore, in the future study, we have to build up theory models to suit for our retail market through critic reviews about the existing high class structure of Korea.

  • PDF