• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.10-17
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• 1983

This paper studies item-life test plans with the specified item mean life $T_1$ (MTBF) - Producer's risk ${\alpha}$ and item mean life $T_2$ (MTBF, $T_2$ < $T_1$) - Consumer's risk ${\beta}$ when the probability of item survival follows the Weibull distribution (known shape parameter) as a expansion of [1]. And Operating Characteristic Curves and Average Life-testing Times of item-life test plans are computed for this paper and [1]. Cost analysis procedures are same as [1]. These results are computed by using computer program written in Level II Basic for Apple II Plus Micro-computer. Both this paper and [6] reduce the life-testing time for Weibull distribution in comparision with Exponential distribution, but results of [6] were computed for different criterions from this paper.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.1099-1108
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• 2017

Data points obtained by conducting repetitive experiments under identical environmental conditions are, theoretically, required to correspond. However, experimental data often display variations due to generated errors or noise resulting from various factors and inherent uncertainties. In this study, an algorithm aiming to determine valid bounds of input variables, representing uncertainties, was developed using probabilistic and statistical methods. Furthermore, a reliability assessment was performed to verify and validate applications of this algorithm using bolt-fastening friction coefficient data in a sample application.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.961-969
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• 2009

Water absorption in water-cooled generator stator windings can cause serious accidents such as insulation breakdown and it brings a generator to the unexpected sudden outage. Accordingly, it is important to diagnose the water absorption of them in the effective operation of power plant. Especially, the capacitance value which is measured for diagnosis is very small so the special diagnosis methods like stochastic theory are needed. KEPRI developed the water absorption test equipment and diagnosis technology for them. In this paper we propose that water absorption test of generator stator windings using probability distributions. The proposed diagnosis technology is applied to the real system and the results of water absorption test for stator windings are agreed to them of water leak test.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2011.11a
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• pp.400-403
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• 2011

We performed Instron and Impact tests to estimate necessary explosive charge weight for cutting the cable whose diameter is 22 mm. The cutting energy measured by Instron was 21.3 J. Impact test were performed 8 times each at 5 different energies. The Impact test results were analysed by Probit methods. The cutting energy was calculated 37.7 J with 99.99% probability at 99% confidence, which is roughly equivalent to 250 mg of Zirconium potassium Perchlorate (ZPP).

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.35 no.10
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• pp.1299-1306
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• 2011

In this study, crack-growth model parameters subjected to variable amplitude loading are estimated in the form of a probability distribution using the method of Bayesian parameter estimation. Huang's model is employed to describe the retardation and acceleration of the crack growth during the loadings. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to obtain samples of the parameters following the probability distribution. As the conventional MCMC method often fails to converge to the equilibrium distribution because of the increased complexity of the model under variable amplitude loading, an improved MCMC method is introduced to overcome this shortcoming, in which a marginal (PDF) is employed as a proposal density function. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of the data from several test specimens subjected to constant amplitude loading. The prediction is then made under variable amplitude loading for the same specimen, and validated by the ground-truth data using the estimated parameters.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.271-280
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• 2002

A probabilistic approach to identify the effects of uncertainties of soil strength parameters on searching a critical slip surface with the lowest reliability is introduced. In general construction field, it is impossible for the engineer to always gather a variety of statistical information of soil strength parameters for which lots of laboratory and in-situ soil testing are required and to use it with enough statistical knowledge. Thus, in order that the engineer may easily understand the probabilistic concept for the slope stability analysis, this study proposes a combined procedure to incorporate the engineering probabilistic tools into the existing deterministic slope stability analysis methods. Using UTEXAS 3, a slope stability analysis computer program developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (U.S. COE), this study provides the results of this probabilistic slope stability analysis in terms of probability of failure or reliability index. This probabilistic method f3r slope stability analysis appears to yield more comprehensive results of slope reliability than does existing deterministic methods with safety factors alone.

• Food Science and Preservation
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.459-471
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• 2023

The Bayesian network (BN) model was applied to analyze the characteristic variables that affect compliance with safety inspections of farmed eel during the production stage, using the data from 30,063 cases of eel aquafarm safety inspection in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network (IFSIN) from 2012 to 2021. The dataset for establishing the BN model included 77 non-conforming cases. Relevant HACCP data, geographic information about the aquafarms, and environmental data were collected and mapped to the IFSIN data to derive explanatory variables for nonconformity. Aquafarm HACCP certification, detection history of harmful substances during the last 5 y, history of nonconformity during the last 5 y, and the suitability of the aquatic environment as determined by the levels of total coliform bacteria and total organic carbon were selected as the explanatory variables. The highest achievable eel aquafarm noncompliance rate by manipulating the derived explanatory variables was 24.5%, which was 94 times higher than the overall farmed eel noncompliance rate reported in IFSIN between 2017 and 2021. The established BN model was validated using the IFSIN eel aquafarm inspection results conducted between January and August 2022. The noncompliance rate in the validation set was 0.22% (15 nonconformances out of 6,785 cases). The precision of BN model prediction was 0.1579, which was 71.4 times higher than the non-compliance rate of the validation set.

• Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.276-285
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• 2020

In this study, accelerated chloride diffusion tests were performed on OPC(Ordinary Portland Cement) and FA(Fly Ash) concrete considering three levels o f W/B(Water to Binder) ratio o n 1,095 curing days. The accelerated chloride diffusion coefficient and the passed charge were evaluated in accordance with Tang's method and ASTM C 1202, and the resistance performance to chloride attack improved over time. FA concrete showed excellent resistance performance against chloride penetration with help of pozzolanic reaction. As the result of the passed charge, FA concrete showed durability improvement, "low" grade to "very low" grade, but OPC concrete changed "moderate" grade to "low" grade at 1,095 curing days. After assuming the design variables used for durability design as normal distribution functions, the service life of each case was evaluated by the probabilistic analysis method based on MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation). In FA concrete, the increase of probability of durability failure was lower than that of OPC concrete with increasing time, because the time-dependent coefficient of FA concrete was up to 3.2 times higher than OPC concrete. In addition, the service life by probabilistic analysis was evaluated lower than the service life by deterministic analysis, since the target probability of durability failure was set to 10%. It is considered that more economical durability design will be possible if the mo re suitable target probability of durability failure is set for various structures through researches on actual conditions and indoor tests under various circumstances.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.453-459
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• 2020

It is important to increase the probability that all developed weapon systems can be operated in a steady state at any time. In the case of Integrated Logistics Support, this probability is referred to as operational availability, and the numerical value is quantified during the development process. There are several ways to improve operational availability for successful development of weapon systems. One of the methods is to reduce total corrective maintenance time through Automatic Test Equipment(ATE). Recently, customers in the defense market have become aware of this and demand ways to improve operational availability of weapon systems. Therefore, this paper proposes ways to improve operational availability of weapon systems by changing the method of operating the ATE. The detailed method is to allow field maintenance personnel to carry out field maintenance support onsite. This is an effective way to reduce the total corrective maintenance time of weapon systems by reducing the travel time of field maintenance personnel. The proposed ATE is proved to be able to achieve superior maintenance and operational availability.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.51-65
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• 2009

The purpose of a phase I clinical trial is to determine the maximum tolerated dose(MTD) of a new drug. This paper investigates the performance of standard method, continual reassessment method and accelerated titration designs in phase I clinical trials. Especially we study the precision and safety at the MTD of these methods. We utilize hyperbolic tangent function and power function to define dose-toxicity model. For each method, expected toxicity rate at MTD is computed and compared with target toxicity probability. We also suggest some modifications of these methods and show some improvements in performance.