• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률절편모델

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An Analysis of the Migration of the Public Institutes workers on Resettlement to Local cities (혁신도시 이전공공기관 종사자의 거주이전 결정요인 분석)

  • ROH, Yong Sik;LEE, Young Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.221-231
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    • 2021
  • This paper identify factors of migration of employees' household who work for relocated public institutions. As a factors of migration, we consider individual and household characteristics, the gravity model of distance and population and so on. Considering discrete dependant variable and structure of data, we employ the logistic multilevel model and random intercept model. The result indicates employees' who are female, 30s and 40s, higher education level(PhD) and whose spouse are unemployed tend to transfer their residential registration to new city near relocated public institution. Regarding regional variable, the distance from employee's previous residential location and number of migration of prior year are statistically significant. Also the model indicate regional economy, educational and residential environment of new city influence employee's decision for transferring residential registration.

Probabilistic Analyrgis of Slope Stactility for Progressive Failure (진행성 파괴에 대한 사면안정의 확률론적 해석)

  • 김영수
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 1988
  • A probabilistic model for the progressive failure in a homogeneous soil slope consisting of strain-softening material is presented. The local safety margin of any slice above failure surface is assumed to follow a normal distribution. Uncertainties of the shear strength along potential failure surface are expressed by one-dimensional random field models. In this paper, only the case where failure initiates at toe and propagates up to the crest is considerd. The joint distribution of the safety margin of any two adjacent slices above the failure surface is assumed to be bivariate normal. The overall probability of the sliding failure is expressed as a product of probabilities of a series of conditional el.eats. Finally, the developed procedure has been applied in a case study to yield the reliability of a cut slope.

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Probabilistic Three-Dimensional Slope Stability Analysis on Logarithmic Spiral Failure (대수누선파양에 대한 확률론적 3차원 사면안정해석)

  • 서인석;김영수
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.121-140
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    • 1994
  • This paper presents the probabilistic model to evaluate the three-dimensional stability of layered deposits and c-0 soil slopes. Rotational slides are assumed with a cylindroid control part terminated with plane ends. And the potential failure surfaces in this study are assumed with the logarithmic spiral curve refracted at boundary of layers. This model takes into consideration the spatial variabilities of soil properties and the uncertainties stemming from insufficient number of samples and the discrepancies between laboratory measured and in -situ values of shear strength parameters. From the probabilistic approxi mate method (FOSM and SOSM method), the mean and variance of safety factor are calculated, respectively. And the programs based on above models is developed and a case study is analysed in detail to study the sensitivity of results to variations in different parameters by using the programs developed in this study. On the basis of thin study the following conclusions could be stated : (1) The sensitivity analysis shown that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the angle of internal friction than that of the cohesion, (2) The total 3-D proability of failure and the critical width of failure are significantly affected by total width of slope. It is found that the total 3-D probability of failure and the critical width of failure increase with increasing the slope width when seismic forces do not exist and the total 3-D probability of failure increases with increasing the slope width and the critical width of failure decreases when seismic intensity is relatively large, (3) A decrease in the safety factor (due to effect such as a rise in the mean ground water level, lower shear strength parameters, lower values for the correction factors, etc.) would result in reduction in the critical width of failure.

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