• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 추정

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Estimation Method of Key Block Size on a Large Scale Rock Slope by Simulation of 3-D Rock Joint System (3차원 절리계 모사를 통한 대규모 암반비탈면 파괴블록크기 추정방법)

  • Kim, Dong-Hee;Jung, Hyuk-Il;Kim, Seok-Ki;Lee, Woo-Jin;Ryu, Dong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.10
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2007
  • Accurate evaluation of the slope stability by assuming failure block as the entire slope is considered to be apposite for the small scale slope, whereas it is not the case for the large scale slope. Hence, appropriate estimation of a failure block size is required since the safety factor and the joint strength parameters are the function of the failure block size. In this paper, the size of failure block was investigated by generating 3-dimensional rock joint system based on statistical data of joints obtained from research slope, such as joint orientation, spacing and 3-dimensional joint intensity. The result indicates that 33 potential failure blocks exist in research slope, as large as 1.4 meters at least and 38.7 meters at most, and average block height is 15.2 meters. In addition, the data obtained from 3 dimensional joint system were directly applicable to the probability analysis and 2 and 3 dimensional discontinuity analysis.

Environmental Tobacco Smoking, Parental Allergy History and Pediatric Asthma and Wheezing (부모에 의한 간접흡연 및 부모의 알레르기성 질환력과 소아 천식과의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Keun-Bok;Lee, Weon-Yong
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.175-187
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    • 2009
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to investigate whether joint effects between family allergy history and environmental tobacco smoke(ETS) by parents were associated with pediatric asthma and wheezing. Methods: The study objects of this study were 2301 element school students and their parents in an urban-rural areas of Gyeonggi-do. Pediatric asthma and wheezing were identified by measures of International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) questionnaires. We investigated history of parental allergy, ETS, and other socioeconomic status of both parent. Data were analyzed using logistic regression methods. Results: After adjusting other variables, children with maternal asthma history were more likely to be reported life time wheezing (OR: 3.79 95%CI:2.43-5.90), recent wheezing (OR:4.09 95%CI:2.28-7.38), and diagnostic asthma (OR:2.61 95%CI: 1.44-4.75). Paternal asthma history increasing risk of life time wheezing (OR 2.01 95%CI:1.19-3.38) and recent wheezing (OR:2.38 95%CI:1.24-4.56). Joint effect between parental allergy history and ETS significantly effected on child's life time wheezing and recent wheezing. The risks of life time wheezing (OR:2.47 95%CI:1.64-3.717) and recent wheezing (OR: 2.51 95%CI:1.34-4.69) were significantly higher than others without both factors. The risk of recent wheezing of children with maternal recent smoking and parental allergy history (OR:4.83 95%CI:1.89-12.33) was higher than their counterpart. Conclusions: The result of this study implies that children with family allergy history and passive smoking are more likely to be get asthma and wheezing than children with family allergy history and non-passive smoking. This study provide the object information to increase the efficiency of non-smoking campaign and education for decreasing pediatric asthma risk.

A Study on the Acculturation of Guǐmok(槐木) Plantings through the Remaining Species of Guǐjeong(槐亭) (괴정(槐亭)의 잔존 수종을 통해 본 괴목(槐木) 식재의 문화변용)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Han, Sang-Yub;Choe, Seung-Heuy
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.81-97
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to examine what people in Korea recognize the cultural symbolism and the planting patterns of 'Guǐmok', pagoda tree(Sophora japonica). The species planted in the 'Guǐjeong' was empirically investigated and analyzed to determine which species of pagoda tree or Zelkova tree(Zelkova serrata) was taken through literature surveys, field surveys, and interviews with persons. This 'Guǐjeong' was combined to track how the culture of the 'Guǐmok' planting introduced in China was ultimately accepted and transformed in Korea. In this study, we tried to analyze the meaning implicit in the mystery while checking the distribution of the mystery and the form of the mystery, the name of the pavilion and its relevance to the contrast medium. Essentially, the trees that govern the characterization of the nectar plant, regardless of the region, are considered to be a pagoda tree, which is considered an internal factor in which the pagoda tree culture was not completely transformed into a zelkova tree. It was recognized throughout the Joseon Dynasty that the species representing 'Prime ministers(三公)' was judged from all the Joseon Dynasty periods, based on the builder of Guǐjeong's Aho(雅號) and Dangho(堂號). It was confirmed that the tree was very likely to be planted in place of the painting tree. But now is selectively zelkova tree is in accordance with the preparation of planting site conditions and areas on behalf of the Change is very high probability that is planted. Cultural variables that led to the cultural transformation of the 'Guǐmok' seem to have been deeply involved in the geographical space of China and Korea, Confucian practices of the Choson society, comings and goings and letter bridge, and network strength with China through the book spread. In addition, the culture of 'Guǐmok' is presumed to have led to cultural custom of the upper class, not the whole class, in the Yeongnam region, it can be said that the independent adaptation to act to recognize 'Guǐmok' as a pagoda tree, that is a Sophora japonica, has occurred very strongly. The difference between the cultural areas of Yeongnam and non-Yeongnam is also considered to be an internal factor that has played a major role in the cultural transformation of planting of 'Guǐmok'.

The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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A Study on the Prolactin Receptor 3 (PRLR3) Gene and the Retinol-binding Protein 4 (RBP4) Gene as Candidate Genes for Growth and Litter Size Traits of Berkshire in Korea (국내 버크셔 돼지에서 성장 및 산자수의 후보유전자로서 PRLR3와 RBP4에 관한 연구)

  • Do, Chang-Hee;Kim, Seon-Ku;Kang, Han-Suk;Shin, Teak-Soon;Lee, Hong-Gu;Cho, Seong-Keun;Do, Kyung-Tak;Song, Ji-Na;Kim, Tae-Hun;Choi, Bong-Hwan;Sang, Byung-Chan;Joo, Yeong-Kuk;Park, Jun-Kyu;Lee, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Jeong-Ill;Park, Jeong-Suk;Sin, Young-Soo;Kim, Byung-Woo;Cho, Byung-Wook
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.825-830
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    • 2010
  • Two diallelic markers at candidate gene loci, the prolactin receptor 3 (PRLR3) gene and the retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4) gene were evaluated for their association with growth and litter size traits in Berkshire. Genetic evaluation was conducted for 5,919 pigs with pedigree information, which included 3,480 growth performance records and 775 litter size records of 224 sows. From the same herd, genotyping was carried out on 144 and 156 animals for PRLR3 and RBP4, respectively. After assigning a genotype to subjects in which both parents had a homozygous genotype, numbers of genotyped animals increased to 474 and 338, for the PRLR3 gene and RBP4 gene, respectively. The genotype effects of two markers were estimated with breeding values of the genotyped animals. The additive effects of total number of piglets born and number of piglets born alive in the PRLR3 locus were -0.28 and -0.13, respectively. The dominance effect of the RBP4 locus on average daily gain was -10.58 g. However, the polymorphism of the RBP4 locus in total number of piglets born and number of piglets born alive has shown -0.34 and -0.33 of the additive genetic effects. In view of the results, MAS (marker-assisted selection) favoring B alleles of RBP4 and PRLR3 loci could potentially accelerate the rate of the genetic improvement in the litter size traits.

Adolescent's Risk Behavior and the Quality of Life: the Role of Protective Factors on Risk Behavior (청소년의 위험행동과 삶의 질: 위험행동에 대한 보호요인의 역할)

  • Sang-Chul Han
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.12 no.5_spc
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    • pp.99-116
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    • 2006
  • This paper discuss adolescent's a quality of life related with risk behavior. The purpose of this study investigate to influence on risk behavior(runaway, smoking, sexual behavior) of the protective factors that moderate adolescent's problem behavior(delinquency). The assumption of this study that the protective factors counterbalance the negative influence of risk factors and finally, diminish a the problem behavior including a delinquent. A total of 1,020 students of a vocational high schook and a 216 adolescents of a special groups(the public institution that consisted with a delinquent young man) completed the questionnaires(risk behavior, 5 protective factors) of compiled by this researcher. The protective factors have selected based on the various prior studies analyzed with adolescent's risk behavior a family functioning, a father(a mother) each and child communication, a self efficacy, and a social support. Statistics appled for the data analysis are Chisqure analysis, two-way ANOVA, and Standard Discrimination analysis. The results of this study are as follows. First, the special group is higher than the general group in the rate of runaway, smoking, and sexual deviant behavior. Second, the protective factors are not action in the special group have experienced delinquency, but are only action in the general group consisted with the students of a vocational high schools. This means that the protective factors discriminating the participation of the risk behaviors, and blocking out the intervention of a problem behavior in the general adolescents. Although each protective factor influence to different according to each risk behavior, a role of a parent-child communication, a family functioning, and self-efficacy high orderly. Finally, discussed based on the previous studies that the protective factors moderate the negative influence of risk factors, offset the connection between a risk behavior and a. problem behavior, and improve and a resilience and the quality of life of the adolescents.

Estimation of the Moisture Maximizing Rate based on the Moisture Inflow Direction : A Case Study of Typhoon Rusa in Gangneung Region (수분유입방향을 고려한 강릉지역 태풍 루사의 수분최대화비 산정)

  • Kim, Moon-Hyun;Jung, Il-Won;Im, Eun-Soon;Kwon, Won-Tae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.697-707
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    • 2007
  • In this study, we estimated the PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation) and its transition in case of the typhoon Rusa which happened the biggest damage of all typhoons in the Korea. Specially, we analysed the moisture maximizing rate under the consideration of meteorological condition based on the orographic property when it hits in Gangneung region. The PMP is calculated by the rate of the maximum persisting 12 hours 1000 hPa dew points and representative persisting 12 hours 1000 hPa dew point. The former is influenced by the moisture inflow regions. These regions are determined by the surface wind direction, 850 hPa moisture flux and streamline, which are the critically different aspects compared to that of previous study. The latter is calculated using statistics program (FARD2002) provided by NIDP(National Institute for Disaster Prevention). In this program, the dew point is calculated by reappearance period 50-year frequency analysis from 5% of the level of significant when probability distribution type is applied extreme type I (Gumbel distribution) and parameter estimation method is used the Moment method. So this study indicated for small basin$(3.76km^2)$ the difference the PMP through new method and through existing result of established storm transposition and DAD(Depth-Area-Duration). Consequently, the moisture maximizing rate is calculated in the moisture inflow regions determined by meteorological fields is higher $0.20{\sim}0.40$ range than that of previous study. And the precipitation is increased $16{\sim}31%$ when this rate is applied for calculation.

Freeze Risk Assessment for Three Major Peach Growing Areas under the Future Climate Projected by RCP8.5 Emission Scenario (신 기후변화시나리오 RCP 8.5에 근거한 복숭아 주산지 세 곳의 동해위험도 평가)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2012
  • This study was carried out to evaluate a possible change in freeze risk for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach buds in three major peach growing areas under the future climate projected by RCP8.5 emission scenario. Mean values of the monthly temperature data for the present decade (2000s) and the future decades (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were extracted for farm lands in Icheon, Chungju, and Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan region at 1km resolution and 30 sets of daily temperature data were generated randomly by a stochastic process for each decade. The daily data were used to calculate a thermal time-based dormancy depth index which is closely related to the cold tolerance of peach buds. Combined with daily minimum temperature, dormancy depth can be used to estimate the potential risk of freezing damage on peach buds. When the freeze risk was calculated daily for the winter period (from 1 November to 15 March) in the present decade, Icheon and Chungju regions had high values across the whole period, but Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan regions had low values from mid-December to the end of January. In the future decades, the frequency of freezing damage would be reduced in all 3 regions and the reduction rate could be as high as 75 to 90% by 2080's. However, the severe class risk (over 80% damage) will not disappear in the future and most occurrences will be limited to December to early January according to the calculation. This phenomenon might be explained by shortened cold hardiness period caused by winter warming as well as sudden cold waves resulting from the higher inter-annual climate variability projected by the RCP8.5 scenario.

Wave Analysis and Spectrum Estimation for the Optimal Design of the Wave Energy Converter in the Hupo Coastal Sea (파력발전장치 설계를 위한후포 연안의 파랑 분석 및 스펙트럼 추정)

  • Kweon, Hyuck-Min;Cho, Hongyeon;Jeong, Weon-Mu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.147-153
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    • 2013
  • There exist various types of the WEC (Wave Energy Converter), and among them, the point absorber is the most popularly investigated type. However, it is difficult to find examples of systematically measured data analysis for the design of the point absorber type of power buoy in the world. The study investigates the wave load acting on the point absorber type resonance power buoy wave energy extraction system proposed by Kweon et al. (2010). This study analyzes the time series spectra with respect to the three-year wave data (2002.05.01~2005.03.29) measured using the pressure type wave gage at the seaside of north breakwater of Hupo harbor located in the east coast of the Korean peninsula. From the analysis results, it could be deduced that monthly wave period and wave height variations were apparent and that monthly wave powers were unevenly distributed annually. The average wave steepness of the usual wave was 0.01, lower than that of the wind wave range of 0.02-0.04. The mode of the average wave period has the value of 5.31 sec, while mode of the wave height of the applicable period has the value of 0.29 m. The occurrence probability of the peak period is a bi-modal type, with a mode value between 4.47 sec and 6.78 sec. The design wave period can be selected from the above four values of 0.01, 5.31, 4.47, 6.78. About 95% of measured wave heights are below 1 m. Through this study, it was found that a resonance power buoy system is necessary in coastal areas with low wave energy and that the optimal design for overcoming the uneven monthly distribution of wave power is a major task in the development of a WEF (Wave Energy Farm). Finding it impossible to express the average spectrum of the usual wave in terms of the standard spectrum equation, this study proposes a new spectrum equation with three parameters, with which basic data for the prediction of the power production using wave power buoy and the fatigue analysis of the system can be given.

A study on Classification of Temporarily Access Group about Sanitation Workers in Nuclear Medicine Department (핵의학과 환경미화원의 일시 출입자 분류에 대한 고찰)

  • Yoo, Jae-Sook;Jang, Jeong-Chan;Kim, Ho-Seong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.50-56
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: Those who access to the nuclear medicine department are classified as radiation workers, temporarily access group, and occasional access group as defined by the atomic energy law. The radiation workers and temporarily access people wear a personal radiation dosimeter for checking their own radiation absorbed dose periodically. However, because of the sanitation workers, classified as temporarily access group, who are working in the nuclear medicine department are moved in a cycle with other departments and their works are changeful, it is hard to control their radiation absorbed dose. Thus, this study is going to examine the state of the sanitation worker's radiation absorbed dose, and then make sure whether they are classified as temporarily access group or not. Materials and methods: In the first instance, the first sanitation worker who works in vitro laboratory and PET room and the second sanitation worker who works in gamma camera rooms (invivo room) wore radiation dosimeter-OSL(Optically Stimulated Luminescence)- to measure their own radiation absorbed dose during work time from May to June 2011. Secondly, this study was taken place 5 places in gamma camera rooms, 2 places in PET bed room, operating room, waiting room and cyclotron room in PET and 4 places in vitro laboratory. And then to measure the radiation space dose rate, it is measured 10 times each of places as sanitation worker's work flow by using radiation survey meter. Results: The radiation absorbed dose on OSL of the first c who works in vitro laboratory and PET room and the second one who works in gamma camera rooms are 0.04, 0.02 mSv per month respectively. That means the estimated annual radiation absorbed doses are less than 1mSv as 0.48, 0.24 mSv/yr respectively. The radiation space dose rates as sanitation worker's work flow using survey meter are 0.0037, 0.0019 mSv/day, so the estimated annual radiation absorbed dose are 0.93, 0.47 mSv/yr respectively. The weighted exposure dose of first sanitation worker of each places are 1.62% in cyclotron room, 3.88% in waiting room, 2.39% in operating room, 81.01% in bed room of PET and 11.01% in vitro laboratory. The weighted exposure dose of second sanitation worker of each places are 45.22% in radiopharmaceutical laboratory, gamma 30.64% in camera rooms, 15.65% in waiting room, 8.49% in reading room. Conclusion: The annual radiation absorbed doses on OSL of both sanitation workers are less than 1 mSv per year and the annual radiation absorbed doses by using survey meter are less than 1mSv either, but close up to 1 mSv. Thus, to clarify whether the sanitation workers are temporarily access group or not, and to be lessen their s radiation absorbed dose, they should be educated about management of radiation and modified their work flow or work time appropriately, their radiation absorbed dose would be lessen certainly.

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