• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 불확실성

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Procurement Pricing Strategy for Remanufacturing System under Uncertainty in Quality of Used Product (회수 품질이 불확실한 재제조 시스템의 회수 가격 결정 모형)

  • Lee, Ji Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.691-697
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    • 2016
  • Remanufacturing refers to restoring a used product to an acceptable condition for resale in the market of remanufactured items. In this paper, we deal with the acquisition price and remanufacturing decision for remanufacturing systems in the case where the demand for the remanufactured product in a single period is known and the return quantity of the used product is determined by its acquisition price. The quality of the acquired used product is categorized into two classes, high and low, through inspection and different qualities incur different remanufacturing costs. The probability that the acquired used product is categorized as high class can be a constant or random variable. We derive the expected total cost functions, obtain the optimal solutions, and interpret the managerial meaning of the optimal solution for each case. The sensitivity of the optimal solution with respect to the variation of the inspection cost and uncertainty of the quality of the used product is investigated through numerical examples.

Evaluating the contribution of calculation components to the uncertainty of standardized precipitation index using a linear mixed model (선형혼합모형을 활용한 표준강수지수 계산 인자들의 불확실성에 대한 기여도 평가)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Lee, Baesung;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.8
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    • pp.509-520
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    • 2023
  • Various drought indices are widely used for assessing drought conditions which are affected by many factors such as precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff. The values of drought indices varies depending on hydro-meteorological data and calculation formulas, and the judgment of the drought condition may also vary. This study selected four calculation components such as precipitation data length, accumulation period, probability distribution function, and parameter estimation method as the sources of uncertainty in the calculation of standardized precipitation index (SPI), and evaluated their contributions to the uncertainty using root mean square error (RMSE) and linear mixed model (LMM). The RMSE estimated the overall errors in the SPI calculation, and the LMM was used to quantify the uncertainty contribution of each factor. The results showed that as the accumulation period increased and the data period extended, the RMSEs decreased. The comparison of relative uncertainty using LMM indicated that the sample size had the greatest impact on the SPI calculation. In addition, as sample size increased, the relative uncertainty related to the sample size used for SPI calculation decreased and the relative uncertainty associated with accumulation period and parameter estimation increased. In conclusion, to reduce the uncertainty in the SPI calculation, it is essential to collect long-term data first, followed by the appropriate selection of probability distribution models and parameter estimation methods that represent well the data characteristics.

Probabilistic Analysis of Equivalent Uniformly Distributed Live Loads (등가등분포 적재하중의 확률론적 분석)

  • 김상효;정시현;조형근
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 1989
  • Since 1960's, structural engineers have recognized that the inherent random nature of loadings and materials as well as the imperfect structural analysis may be important factors in the structural safety evaluation. Based on the successful developments of the reliability-based structural analysis and design, the design criteria of the standards are recently developed(or modified) in the light of the probabilistic concepts. To develop the probability - based criteria for the domestic buildings, the probabilistic characteristic of loadings acting on structures should be defined first. In this study, therefore, live load data on apartment buildings have been collected and analyzed in systematic manner, and their probabilistic characteristics have been studied. Based on the results, the lifetime extreme values are computed and compared with current design loads. More rational design loads are suggested, which are more consistent in the probabilistic concepts.

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VE/LCC Analysis Models of Breakwaters by Fuzzy Reliability Approach (퍼지 신뢰성 이론에 의한 방파제의 VE/LCC 분석모델)

  • Ahn, Jong-Pil;Park, Ju-Won;Yu, Deog-Chan
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.159-167
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the concepts of integrated VE analysis assessment is introduced in order to achieve "Design for Deterioration performance" in design VE phase. For this purpose, a framework for fuzzy reliability based LCC and value analysis model using fuzzy logic based approach for breakwaters Projects is suggested. It is anticipated that the methodology Proposed in this paper can also be utilized in the design and maintenance phase of other facilities where decision making is made for the fuzzy reliability based life cycle cost and value analysis.

The Stochastic Finite Element Analysis and Reliability Analysis of the Cable Stayed Bridge Subjected to Earthquake Load (지진하중을 받는 사장교의 확률유한요소해석 및 신뢰성해석)

  • Shin, Jae-Chul;Han, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.29-42
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    • 2005
  • Considering the effect by uncertainty in the structures, it is reasonable that the safety examination has to be performed by using method of reliability evaluation. Therefore, in this study, program is developed which can perform the reliability analysis or the dynamic response analysis more efficiently by formularizing the stochastic finite element analysis suitable for the existing reliability analysis about the cable stayed bridge suffering the seismic loads. Based on this program, the characteristic of dynamic responses is analyzed quantitatively by examining the average, the standard deviation and the coefficient of variance about the displacement, the resistance and the tension of cable according to the random variables. and the safety of cable stayed bridge is evaluated by examining of reliability index and failure probability

Seismic Safety Assessment of the Turbine-Generator Foundation using Probabilistic Structural Reliability Analysis (확률론적 구조신뢰성해석을 이용한 터빈발전기 기초의 지진 안전성 평가)

  • Joe, Yang-Hee;Kim, Jae-Suk;Han, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2008
  • Most of the civil structure - bridges, offshore structures, plant, etc. - have been designed by the classical approaches which deal with all the design parameters as deterministic variables. However, some more advanced techniques are required to evaluate the inherent randomness and uncertainty of each design variable. In this research, a seismic safety assessment algorithm based on the structural reliability analysis has been formulated and computerized for more reasonable seismic design of turbine-generator foundations. The formulation takes the design parameters of the system and loading properties as random variables. Using the proposed method, various kinds of parametric studies have been performed and probabilistic characteristics of the resulted structural responses have been evaluated. Afterwards, the probabilistic safety of the system has been quantitatively evaluated and finally presented as the reliability indexes and failure probabilities. The proposed procedure is expected to be used as a fundamental tool to improve the existing design techniques of turbine-generator foundations.

Probabilistic Reliability Method based Capacity Value of Wind Power (확률적 신뢰도기법에 의한 신재생발전기 용량가치 산정기법)

  • Ryu, Seong-Ho;Ryu, Heon-Su;Shim, Dae-Sub
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2011.07a
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    • pp.1372-1373
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    • 2011
  • 신재생에너지 발전기는 출력가변성이 크기 때문에 장기 전력수급계획 수립시 발전용량을 얼마로 할 것인가에 대한 불확실성을 내포하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 확률론적 신뢰도 기법에 기반하여 신재생 발전기가 공급신뢰도에 기여하는 용량산정 방법을 제안하고 우리나라 전력수급기본계획에 적용하는 방안을 살펴보았다. 국내 발전설비계획 수립에 사용하는 공급지장확률(LOLP)을 이용하여 신재생 발전기의 공급 신뢰도 기여용량을 산정하고 그 결과를 현재까지 사용해 온 신재생발전기 이용률에 기반한 기여용량 산정결과와 비교하였다. 특히 신재생발전원 중 우리나라에서 많은 부분을 차지하는 풍력 및 태양광에 대하여 용량가치를 산정하였다. 확률적 신뢰도기반 용량가치 산정법은 제5차 전력 수급기본계획 수립시 적용된 바 있으며, 좀 더 정밀한 산정절차를 수립하여 수급계획에 적용할 필요가 있다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 수급계획 수립에 신재생 발전원의 정확한 용량가치를 산정하는 방식을 선정하는 데 참고자료로 활용될 수 있다.

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Reliability Analysis Using Parametric and Nonparametric Input Modeling Methods (모수적·비모수적 입력모델링 기법을 이용한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Kang, Young-Jin;Hong, Jimin;Lim, O-Kaung;Noh, Yoojeong
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2017
  • Reliability analysis(RA) and Reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) require statistical modeling of input random variables, which is parametrically or nonparametrically determined based on experimental data. For the parametric method, goodness-of-fit (GOF) test and model selection method are widely used, and a sequential statistical modeling method combining the merits of the two methods has been recently proposed. Kernel density estimation(KDE) is often used as a nonparametric method, and it well describes a distribution function when the number of data is small or a density function has multimodal distribution. Although accurate statistical models are needed to obtain accurate RA and RBDO results, accurate statistical modeling is difficult when the number of data is small. In this study, the accuracy of two statistical modeling methods, SSM and KDE, were compared according to the number of data. Through numerical examples, the RA results using the input models modeled by two methods were compared, and appropriate modeling method was proposed according to the number of data.

Probabilistic Estimation of Area- and Feature-based Stereo Matching Results Considering Uncertatinty (불확실성을 고려한 영역과 특징기반 스테레오 정합결과의 확률적 통합)

  • 문인혁
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2001.06d
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    • pp.69-72
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    • 2001
  • This paper proposes a positional estimation method for extracted line features by stereo vision. Based on given reference plane, planar surfaces corresponding the given plane are first extracted. Then, features in the planar surfaces are selected. Using the Extended Kalman Filter the feature positions are estimated by combining area- and feature-based stereo matching results. Experimental results show the proposed method is feasible.

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Probabilistic Characteristics Analysis of Disturbed Function for Geosynthetic-Soil Interface Using Cyclic Shear Tests (동적전단시험을 이용한 토목섬유-흙 접촉면에 대한 교란도함수의 확률특성 분석)

  • Huh, Jungwon;Park, Innjoon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2012
  • This paper mainly deals with the analysis of probabilistic characteristics of the disturbed function proposed to predict dynamic behavior of Geosynthetic-soil interface as the lining and cover systems used in waste landfills. Calibration and statistical property estimation of the parameters in the disturbed function model were first performed using many experimental data obtained from a new multi-purpose interface apparatus (M-PIA). In order to analyze the effect due to changes in chemical degradation and normal loads condition, probabilistic properties such as mean, coefficient of variation and distribution type of the disturbed function were evaluated using both the LHS method known to be a very efficient sampling scheme and the estimated statistical property of A and Z. As a result, variation of the disturbed function is found to range approximately from 10~28% according to the level of ${\xi}_D$ and Weibull appears to be the most adequate distribution type at almost all levels of ${\xi}_D$. It is concluded that a probabilistic safety assessment method for Geosynthetic-soil interface considering uncertainty in shear strength can be developed by utilizing probabilistic properties of the disturbed function obtained in this study.