• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.485-495
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• 2016

To reinforce and improve the soft ground under a breakwater while using materials efficiently, the replacement ratio and leaving periods of surcharge load are optimized probabilistically. The results of Bayesian updating of the random variables using prior information decrease uncertainty by up to 39.8%, and using prior information with more samples results in a sharp decrease in uncertainty. Replacement ratios of 15%-40% are analyzed using First Order Reliability Method and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the replacement ratio. The results show that replacement ratios of 20% and 25% are acceptable at the column jet grouting area and the granular compaction pile area, respectively. Life cycle costs are also compared to optimize the replacement ratios within allowable ranges. The results show that a range of 20%-30% is the most economical during the total life cycle. This means that initial construction cost, maintenance cost and failure loss cost are minimized during total life cycle. Probabilistic analysis for leaving periods of shows that three months acceptable. Design optimization with respect to life cycle cost is important to minimize maintenance costs and retain the performance of the structures for the required period. Therefore, more case studies that consider the maintenance costs of soil structures are necessary to establish relevant design codes.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.155-167
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• 2010

In analysis of slope stability, deterministic analysis which yields a factor of safety has been used until recently. However, probability of failure is considered as a more efficient method because it deals with the uncertainty and variability of rock mass. In both methods, a factor of safety or a probability of failure is calculated for a slope although characteristics of rock mass, such as characteristics of joints, weathering degree of rock and so on, are not uniform throughout the slope. In this paper, we divided a model slope into several zones depending on conditions of rock mass and joints, and probabilities of failure in each zone are calculated and compared with that calculated in whole slope. The persistence of joint was also used as a parameter in calculation of probability of failure. A rock slope located in Hongcheon, Gangwondo was selected and the probability of failure using zoning and persistence as parameter was calculated to confirm the applicability of model analysis.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.173-183
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• 1997

In this paper a method is suggested for the probabilistic analysis of impact buckling failure time of cylinder with random axisymmetric geometric imperfection under axial impact. Failure is assumed as axisymmetric radial deformation exceeds the given criteria for the first time. For the generation of random geometric initial imperfection, random field theory by mean function and autocorrelation function of geometric imperfection is used. Suggested method is useful for the treatment of the randomness of realistic geometric imperfection and can be used for the structural safety analysis of cylinder considering its effect.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.69-73
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• 2002

본 발표에서는 베이지안이 생각하는 확률의 개념을 상호교환성(exchangeability)의 가정아래 어떻게 확장되어 해석되는지를 소개하고, 빈도학자들의 접근방법과 비교함으로서 베이지안에서 생각하는 확률이 어떠한 특징을 가지고 있는지를 설명하고자 하였다. 또한 Efron에 의하여 지적된 베이지안의 네 가지 문제점에 대하여 논의하고 특별히 과학적 객관성(scientific objectivism)의 한계점과 이러한 한계점을 베이지안에서 어떻게 해결하고 있는지에 대하여 논의하였다. 일반적으로 과학적 객관성에 대한 한계점은 빈도학자들의 방법론에서도 존재하게 된다. 즉, 연구자가 가설을 설정하고 이에 맞는 실험설계를 하고 유의수준을 설정하고 p값을 이용하여 의사결정을 내리는 모든 단계에서 연구자의 주관성이 들어갈 수밖에 없게 된다는 것이다. 베이지안 방법론에서는 이러한 비객관적인 체계를 인정하고 파악하여 사전확률(prior)에 포함시킴으로서 이를 객관적인 자료인 가능도함수(likelihood function)와 혼합하여 추론이나 의사결정을 진행하게 된다. 마지막으로 베이지안 학자들의 최근 객관적인 사전확률에 대한 다양한 형태의 연구를 소개하는 것으로 발표를 마무리하고자 한다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.302-316
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• 1985

Small break LOCA caused by a stuck-open PORV is one of the important contributors to nuclear power plant risk. This paper deals with the design of a pressurizer surveillance system using microcomputer to prevent the malfunction of system and has assessed the effect of this improvement through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) method. Micro-computer diagnoses the malfunction of system by a process checking method and performs automatically backup action related to each malfunction. Owing to this improvement, we can correctly diagnose “Spurious Opening”, “Fail to Reclose” and “Small break LOCA” which are difficult for operator to diagnose quickly and correctly and reduce the probability of a human error by an automatic backup action.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.461-466
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• 2013

Advanced fiber-reinforced laminated composites are widely used in various fields of engineering to reduce weight. The material property of each ply is well known; specifically, it is known that ply is less reliable than metallic materials and very sensitive to the loading direction. Therefore, it is important to consider this uncertainty in the design of laminated composites. In this study, reliability analysis is conducted using COMSOL and MATLAB interactions for a laminated composite plate for the case in which the tip deflection is the design requirement and the material property is a random variable. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the approximation method is identified, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, we can prove the applicability of the advanced design method for the stabilizer of an underwater vehicle.

• Composites Research
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.327-334
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• 2019

The delamination is a special mode of failure occurring in composite laminates. Several numerical studies with finite element analysis have been carried out on the delamination behavior of unidirectional composite laminates. On the other hand, the fracture for the multi-directional composite laminates may occur not only along the resin-fiber interface between plies known as interply or interlaminar fracture but also within a ply known as interyarn or intralaminar fracture accompanied by matrix cracking and fiber bridging. In addition, interlaminar and intralaminar cracks appear at irregular proportions and intralaminar cracks proceeded at arbitrary angle. The probabilistic analysis method for the prediction of crack growth behavior within a layer is more advantageous than the deterministic analysis method. In this paper, we analyze the crack path when the mode I load is applied to the cross-ply carbon/epoxy composite laminates and collect and analyze the probability data to be used as the basis of the probabilistic analysis in the future. Two criteria for the theoretical analysis of the crack growth direction were proposed by analyzing the stress field at the crack tip of orthotropic materials. Using the proposed method, the crack growth directions of the cross-ply carbon/epoxy laminates were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively and compared with experimental results.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.149-156
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• 2016

The service life in RC (Reinforced Concrete) is very important and it is usually obtained through deterministic method based on Fick's 2nd law and probabilistic method. This paper presents an evaluation of $P_{df}$(durability failure probability) and the related service life considering time-dependent behaviors in chloride diffusion and surface chloride content. For the work, field investigation is performed for RC structures exposed to chloride attack for 3.5~4.5years, focusing tidal zone (6.0 m) and sea shore (9.0 m), respectively. Random variables like cover depth, chloride diffusion coefficient, and surface chloride content are obtained, and $P_{df}$ and the service life are evaluated. Unlike the results from deterministic method using LIFE 365, probabilistic method with time effects on diffusion and surface chloride shows a relatively rapid change in the result, which is a significant reductions of service life in the case with low surface chloride content. For probabilistic evaluation of durability, high surface chloride content over $10.0kg/m^3$ is required and reasonable service life can be derived with consideration of time-dependent diffusion coefficient.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.129-136
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• 2020

In this study, we develop a sampling-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) quantification technique that can accurately consider a partially dependent condition of component seismic fragility information. Specifically, the SPRA quantification method is proposed by combining the advantages of two representative methodologies: EPRI seismic fragility and JAERI seismic fragility input-based quantification. The most important feature of the proposed method is that it performs a SPRA using a sampling technique by transforming the EPRI seismic fragility input into JAERI seismic fragility input. When the proposed sampling-based approach was applied to an example of simple system and to a SPRA problem of a nuclear power plant, it was observed that the proposed method yields approximately similar system seismic fragility and seismic risk results as those of the exact solution. Therefore, it is believed that the approach proposed in this study can be used as a useful tool for accurately assessing seismic risks, considering the partial seismic dependence among the components; the existing SPRA method cannot handle such partial dependencies.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.605-613
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• 2014

Epistemic uncertainty, the lack of knowledge, is often more important than aleatory uncertainty, variability, in estimating reliability of a system. While the probability theory is widely used for modeling aleatory uncertainty, there is no dominant approach to model epistemic uncertainty. Different approaches have been developed to handle epistemic uncertainties using various theories, such as probability theory, fuzzy sets, evidence theory and possibility theory. However, since these methods are developed from different statistics theories, it is difficult to interpret the result from one method to the other. The goal of this paper is to compare different methods in handling epistemic uncertainty in the view point of calculating the probability of failure. In particular, four different methods are compared; the probability method, the combined distribution method, interval analysis method, and the evidence theory. Characteristics of individual methods are compared in the view point of reliability analysis.