• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.27-44
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• 1986

The measured soil data are analyzed to the descriptive statistics and classified into the four models of uncorrelated-normal (UNNO), uncorrelated-nonnormal (VNNN), correlatedonnormal(CONN), and correlated-nonnormal(CONN) . This paper presents the comparisons of reliability index and check points using the advanced first-order second-moment method with respect to the four models as well as BASIC Program. A sin91e-mode Performance function is consisted of the basic design variables of bearing capacity and settlements on shallow foundations and input the above analyzed soil informations. The main conclusions obtained in this study are summarized as follows: 1. In the bearing capacity mode, cohesion and bearing-capacity factors by C-U test are accepted for normal and lognormal distribution, respectively, and negatively low correlated to each other. Since the reliability index of the CONN model is the lowest one of the four model, which could be recommended a reliability.based design, whereas the other model might overestimate the geotechnical conditions. 2. In the case of settlements mode, the virgin compression ratio and preccnsolidation pressure are fitted for normal and lognormal distribution, respectively. Constraining settlements to the lower ones computed by deterministic method, The CONN model is the lowest reliability of the four models.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.11
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• pp.725-734
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• 2017

The main purpose of this study is to analyze runoff aggregation structure and energy expenditure pattern of Choyang creek basin within the framework of power law distribution. To this end geomorphologic factors of every point in the basin of interest, which define tractive force and stream power as well as drainage area, are extracted based on GIS, and their complementary cumulative distributions are graphically analyzed through fitting them to power law distribution. The results indicate that three distinct behavioral regimes are observed from the complementary cumulative distributions of three geomorphogic factors. Based on the parameter estimation of power law distribution by maximum likelihood drainage area and stream power can be judged as scale invariance factor without finite scale while tractive force as scale dependence factor with finite scale. Furthermore, it is judged that tractive force would not follow power law distribution because it shows limited complex system behaviors only within the small extent of scale. The exponent of power law distribution for drainage area obtained in this study by maximum likelihood is larger than the previous researches due to the difference of parameter estimation methodologies. And the exponent for stream power is smaller than the previous researches due to the scaling property of channel slope for the basin of interest.

• Education of Primary School Mathematics
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.1-20
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• 2009

The purposes of this study are to analyze elementary school student's intuitive thinking in the process of mathematical problem solving and to analyze elementary school student's errors of intuitive thinking in the process of mathematical problem solving. According to these purposes, the research questions can be set up as followings. (1) How is the state of illumination of the elementary school student's intuitive thinking in the process of mathematical problem solving? (2) What are origins of errors by elementary school student's intuitive thinking in the process of mathematical problem solving? In this study, Bogdan & Biklen's qualitative research method were used. The subjects in this study were 4 students who were attending the elementary school. The data in this study were 'Intuitine Thinking Test', records of observation and interview. In the interview, the discourses were recorded by sound and video recording. These were later transcribed and analyzed in detail. The findings of this study were as follows: First, If Elementary school student Knows the algorithm of problem, they rely on solving by algorithm rather than solving by intuitive thinking. Second, their problem solving ability by intuitive model are low. What is more they solve the problem by Intuitive model, their Self- Evidence is low. Third, in the process of solving the problem, intuitive thinking can complement logical thinking. Last, in the concept of probability and problem of probability, they are led into cognitive conflict cause of subjective interpretation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.421-436
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• 2016

Public-Private-Partnerships tend to be committed high project development cost and recover the cost through future revenue during the operation period. In general, long-term concession can bring on more revenue to private investors, but short-term concession less revenue due to the short recovering opportunities. The concession period is usually determined by government in advance or by the private sectors's proposal although it is a very crucial factor for the PPPs. Accurate traffic forecasting should be most important in planing and evaluating the operation period in that the forecasted traffic determines the project revenue with user fees in PPPs. In this regards, governments and the private investors are required to consider the traffic forecast risk when determining concession period. This study proposed a model for the optimal concession period in the PPPs transportation projects. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to find out the optimal concession period while traffic forecast uncertainty is considered as a project risk under the expected return of the private sector. The simulation results showed that the optimal concession periods are 17 years and 21 years at 5.5% and 7% discount level, respectively. This study result can be applied for the private investors and/or any other concerned decision makers for PPPs projects to set up a more resonable concession period.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.313-327
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• 2013

In the study, three-dimensional geostatistical simulations on McMurray Formation which is the largest oil sand reservoir in Athabasca area, Canada were performed, and the optimal site for steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) was selected based on the predictions. In the selection, the factors related to the vertical extendibility of steam chamber were considered as the criteria for an optimal site. For the predictions, 110 borehole data acquired from the study area were analyzed in the Markovian transition probability (TP) framework and three-dimensional distributions of the composing media were predicted stochastically through an existing TP based geostatistical model. The potential of a specific medium at a position within the prediction domain was estimated from the ensemble probability based on the multiple realizations. From the ensemble map, the cumulative thickness of the permeable media (i.e. Breccia and Sand) was analyzed and the locations with the highest potential for SAGD applications were delineated. As a supportive criterion for an optimal SAGD site, mean vertical extension of a unit permeable media was also delineated through transition rate based computations. The mean vertical extension of a permeable media show rough agreement with the cumulative thickness in their general distribution. However, the distributions show distinctive disagreement at a few locations where the cumulative thickness was higher due to highly alternating juxtaposition of the permeable and the less permeable media. This observation implies that the cumulative thickness alone may not be a sufficient criterion for an optimal SAGD site and the mean vertical extension of the permeable media needs to be jointly considered for the sound selections.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.976-983
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• 2023

Purpose: The dynamic behavior of a bridge structure under seismic loading depends on many uncertainties, such as the nature of the seismic waves and the material and geometric properties. However, not all uncertainties have a significant impact on the dynamic behavior of a bridge structure. Since probabilistic seismic performance evaluation considering even low-impact uncertainties is computationally expensive, the uncertainties should be identified by considering their impact on the dynamic behavior of the bridge. Therefore, in this study, a global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the main parameters affecting the dynamic behavior of bridges with I-curved girders. Method: Considering the uncertainty of the earthquake and the material and geometric uncertainty of the curved bridge, a finite element analysis was performed, and a surrogate model was developed based on the analysis results. The surrogate model was evaluated using performance metrics such as coefficient of determination, and finally, a global sensitivity analysis based on the surrogate model was performed. Result: The uncertainty factors that have the greatest influence on the stress response of the I-curved girder under seismic loading are the peak ground acceleration (PGA), the height of the bridge (h), and the yield stress of the steel (fy). The main effect sensitivity indices of PGA, h, and fy were found to be 0.7096, 0.0839, and 0.0352, respectively, and the total sensitivity indices were found to be 0.9459, 0.1297, and 0.0678, respectively. Conclusion: The stress response of the I-shaped curved girder is dominated by the uncertainty of the input motions and is strongly influenced by the interaction effect between each uncertainty factor. Therefore, additional sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty of the input motions, such as the number of input motions and the intensity measure(IM), and a global sensitivity analysis considering the structural uncertainty, such as the number and curvature of the curved girders, are required.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.217-225
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• 2010

Most of the steel bridges in Korea are being currently designed by the allowable stress design method that uses the conventional deterministic factors of safety. However the limit state design based on the concept of probability, statistics and reliability engineering is becoming very popular as a global standard deign method, leading the rational and economic bridge design. As part of the fundamental research to establish the load and resistance factor design(LRFD) of steel bridges considering domestic environmental conditions and regional characteristics, an experimental design is conducted by applying AASHTO-LRFD specification especially to a steel closed-box girder, which occupies relatively a large portion of steel bridges in Korea. Throughout the experimental design according to various sectional changes, some of the issues to be considered in the LRFD design of a composite steel closed-box girder bridge are examined. In this process, an Excel-based design verification program is developed for easy computation and prevention of errors. Quantitative reliability levels of the bridge sections designed by LRFD are also estimated using a reliability analysis method, and compared with the target reliability indexes applied in the LRFD design to verify the validity of the procedure and methodology used in this study.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.529-538
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• 1993

A stochastic way using continuous time Markov process is presented to model the one-dimensional nuclide transport in fractured rock matrix as an extended study for previous work ［1］. A nuclide migration model by the continuous time Markov process for single planar fractured rock matrix, which is considered as a transient system where a process by which the nuclide is diffused into the rock matrix from the fracture may be no more time homogeneous, is compared with a conventional deterministic analytical solution. The primary desired quantities from a stochastic model are the expected values and variance of the state variables as a function of time. The time-dependent probability distributions of nuclides are presented for each discretized compartment of the medium given intensities of transition. Since this model is discrete in medium space, parameters which affect nuclide transport could be easily incorporated for such heterogeneous media as the fractured rock matrix and the layered porous media. Even though the model developed in this study was shown to be sensitive to the number of discretized compartment showing numerical dispersion as the number of compartments are decreased, with small compensating of dispersion coefficient, the model agrees well to analytical solution.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.52-60
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• 2017

Numerical simulations were performed to evaluate the habitability of an operator for a cabinet fire in the main control room of a nuclear power plant presented in NUREG-1934. To this end, a Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), as a representative fire model, was used. As the criteria for determining the habitability of operator, toxic products, such as CO, were also considered, as well as radiative heat flux, upper layer temperature, smoke layer height, and optical density of smoke. As a result, the probabilities of exceeding the criteria for habitability were evaluated through the sensitivity analysis of the major input parameters and the uncertainty analysis of fire model for various fire scenarios, based on V&V (Verification and Validation). Sensitivity analyses of the maximum heat release rate, CO and soot yields, showed that the habitable time and the limit criterion, which determined the habitability, could be changed. The present methodology will be a realistic alternative to enhancing the reliability for a habitability evaluation in the main control room using uncertain information of cabinet fires.