• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 접근

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Designs of Pipe Fitting with Three Dimensional Measurement and Kinematic Constrained Equations (파이프 체결을 위한 3차원 측정 및 기구적 구속조건 기반의 설계 방식)

  • Yang, Jeong-Yean
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.54-61
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    • 2022
  • Ship is a huge system including a variety of pipe arrangements. Pipes are installed according to the design layout, however the end poistion of pipes are not well matched owing to its measurement and construction errors. In this situation, the customized pipe fitting is frequently designed to connect with both pipes, the position of which are manually measured. This paper focused that these two coordinates are measured by point cloud from RGBD sensor and the relative transformation induced by positional and orientational differences is calculated by inverse kinematics in robotics theory. Therefore, the result applies for the methodology of the pipe connection design. The pipe coordinate that is estimated by the matching and the probabilistic RANSAC method will be verified by experiments. The kinematic design parameters are computationally calculated by using the minimum degree of freedom that connects both pipe coordinates.

A Study on the Application of Cost Risk Exposure methods by the Probabilistic Evaluation on the Construction Projects (확률적 평가에 의한 건설공사 비용 위험도 측정의 적용성에 관한 연구)

  • Cho Jea-Ho;Chun Jae-Youl
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.1 no.1 s.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2000
  • The paper considers two non-deterministic methods of analysing the risk exposure in a cost estimate The fist method(referred to as the 'conventional statistical' method) analyses cost data directly, to describe a probability distribution for total cost. The second method(referred to as the 'Monte Carlo simulation' method) interprets cost data directly, to generate a probability distribution for total costs from the descriptions of elemental cost distribution. The common practice of allowing for risk through an all-embracing contingency sum or percentage addition is challenged. Rather than excluding conventional, non-deterministic methods, they are here presented as possibly the only of effective foundation on which to risk management in cost estimating.

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A Study on the Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Safety Management in Construction Projects

  • Lee, Dong-Yeol;Kim, Dong-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.139-147
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we proposed the possibility of reliability analysis of risk index by using Monte Carlo simulation as basic data of safety accident occurrence data and expert opinion by construction industry type. Through this, it is expected that risk index for safety accidents according to detailed types of works will be presented stochastically and it will be possible to predict the risk factors and the expected range of damage based on the reliability analysis in the construction safety management plan. It will also reduce many of the planning risks that are common to decision makers in the field of construction management. In identifying risks, road bridge construction was classified into earthworks, drainage works, and bridge construction, and possible safety accidents were classified based on expert data. The risk index was calculated for each detailed construction of road and bridge construction, drainage construction, and bridge construction.

Durability Prediction for Concrete Structures Exposed to Carbonation Using a Bayesian Approach (베이지안 기법을 이용한 중성화에 노출된 콘크리트 구조물의 내구성 예측)

  • Jung, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Gyu-Seon;Ju, Min-Kwan;Lee, Sang-Cheol
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.275-276
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    • 2009
  • This paper provides a new approach for predicting the corrosion resistivity of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayesian theory when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account into the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined from the samples obtained from the Latin hypercube sampling technique. The new method may be very useful in designing important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored.

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Analysis of Server's Computational Cost for Multicast Batch Rekeying Scheme (멀티캐스트 일괄 키 갱신 방법의 서버계산 비용 분석)

  • Park Chang-Seop;Lee Gyu-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2005
  • In the near future, various aplications on the Internet will be based on the multicast group communication, so that the efficient group key management is essential for managing the frequent group join and leave events. In this paper, we propose several batch rekeying schemes extended from conventional individual rekeying schemes, and analyze the efficiencies of them in terms of both the number of encryption and one-way hash function as well as multicast message size. Considering multiple member leaves, a probabilistic approach is need to compute the average computational amounts for rekeying.

Reliability Based Design Optimization with Variation of Standard Deviation (표준편차의 변동을 고려한 신뢰성 최적설계)

  • Lim, O-Kaung;Kim, Hyung-Wook;Choi, Eun-Ho
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.413-419
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    • 2008
  • Deterministic design optimization (DO) does not explicitly deal with a variety of factors from inherent randomness and uncertainties. Reliability based design optimization(RBDO) is necessary to use in engineering systems in order to guarantee quality and performance of product. In this paper, design variables are considered as random variables. Standard deviation according to change of design variables have changed as much as coefficient of variation. And, if the standard deviation is error of manufacturing, standard deviation-mean relation is concave form. We obtain reliability index using advanced first order second moment method(AFOSM). This paper is examined by solving two examples and the results are compares with DO, RBDO and suggested RBDO.

Methodology of Calibration for Falling Objects Accident-Risk-Zone Approach Detection Algorithm at Port Considering GPS Errors (GPS 오차를 고려한 항만 내 낙하물 사고위험 알고리즘 보정 방법론 개발)

  • Son, Seung-Oh;Kim, Hyeonseo;Park, Juneyoung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2020
  • Real-time location-sensing technology using location information collected from IoT devices is being applied for safety management purposes in many industries, such as ports. On the other hand, positional error is always present owing to the characteristics of GPS. Therefore, accident-risk detection algorithms must consider positional error. This paper proposes an methodology of calibration for falling object accident-risk-zone approach detection algorithm considering GPS errors. A probability density function was estimated, with positional error data collected from IoT devices as a probability variable. As a result of the verification, the algorithm showed a detection accuracy of 93% and 77%. Overall, the analysis results derived according to the GPS error level will be an important criterion for upgrading algorithms and real-time risk managements in the future.

패널자료를 이용한 노년기 거주형태 변화분석

  • Kim, Jeong-Seok
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2007
  • 인구고령화의 진전과 함께 노인들의 거주형태에 대한 사회적. 정책적 관심이 증기하고 있으며, 그에 대한 논의와 연구들 또한 많이 늘어나고 있다. 그러나 이들 연구 대부분이 횡단적 자료(단일 시점이든 여러 시점이든)와 분석에 의존함으로써 노인지 거주형태가 생애주기를 따라 변하는 모습을 충분히 보여주지 못하고 있다. 이 연구는 한국노동연구원의 제1차 및 제6차 노동패널자료를 이용해 노년기 거주형태의 유동성을 경험적으로 제시하려는 목적을 가진다. 이들 위해 거주형태의 출현율(prevalence rate)과 전이율(transition rate)을 개념적으로 구분하고 자녀동거여부에 대한 분석을 실시하였다. 두 시점에 대한 횡단폭 분석결과는 노인들의 사회인구학적 특성에 따른 자녀별거경향의 차이를 보여주더라도 생애주기에 따른 역동성을 보여주기에는 한계가 많음이 확인되었다. 두 시점 간의 거주형태 변화에 대한 패널분석에서는 다수 노인들의 거주형태가 주어진 기간 동안 안정적으로 나타났다. 그러나 거주형태의 변화를 경험하는 데에는 연령증가와 배우자 상태변화 등이 중요한 요인임이 확인되었다. 이러한 생애주기적 변화의 효과는 대부분의 계량적 연구에서 유추되는 수준이거나 질적 연구에서만 보고되어 왔던 것이다. 이 연구결과는 노년기 거주형태의 지속성을 보여주는 한편 변화 가능성과 요인을 파악함으로써 노년기 거주형태에 대한 개념적 이해론 공고히 할 것으로 기대된다. 또한 이 연구에서 제시된 방법론적 논의와 접근방식은 생애주기별 변화에 초점을 두고자 하는 다른 연구영역에서도 적용 가능할 것이라 기대된다.

Big Data Analysis Using Principal Component Analysis (주성분 분석을 이용한 빅데이터 분석)

  • Lee, Seung-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.592-599
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    • 2015
  • In big data environment, we need new approach for big data analysis, because the characteristics of big data, such as volume, variety, and velocity, can analyze entire data for inferring population. But traditional methods of statistics were focused on small data called random sample extracted from population. So, the classical analyses based on statistics are not suitable to big data analysis. To solve this problem, we propose an approach to efficient big data analysis. In this paper, we consider a big data analysis using principal component analysis, which is popular method in multivariate statistics. To verify the performance of our research, we carry out diverse simulation studies.

Suggestions for Enhancing Sampling-Based Approach of Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (샘플링기반 지진 확률론적 리스크평가 접근법 개선을 위한 제언)

  • Kwag, Shinyoung;Eem, Seunghyun;Choi, Eujeong;Ha, Jeong Gon;Hahm, Daegi
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2021
  • A sampling-based approach was devised as a nuclear seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) method to account for the partially correlated relationships between components. However, since this method is based on sampling, there is a limitation that a large number of samples must be extracted to estimate the results accurately. Thus, in this study, we suggest an effective approach to improve the existing sampling method. The main features of this approach are as follows. In place of the existing Monte Carlo sampling (MCS) approach, the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method that enables effective sampling in multiple dimensions is introduced to the SPRA method. In addition, the degree of segmentation of the seismic intensity is determined with respect to the final seismic risk result. By applying the suggested approach to an actual nuclear power plant as an example, the accuracy of the results were observed to be almost similar to those of the existing method, but the efficiency was increased by a factor of two in terms of the total number of samples extracted. In addition, it was confirmed that the LHS-based method improves the accuracy of the solution in a small sampling region.